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Australian rugby union player Will Genia at Wallabies training. AAP Image/Paul Miller
The Springboks go to their hoodoo ground at Brisbane on Saturday night ready to be put to the sword by the Wallabies. The 2007 RWC champions are an aging, leaden-footed, lacking-in-ideas imitation of the great side of the last three years.
Without the genius of Fourie du Preez they play their kick-chase, force penalties game as if they are painting by numbers.
Beaten 31-17 and four tries to two, the Springboks sent out a side against the All Blacks that had 700 caps, the most experienced South African side of all time. The side has only one new 2010 cap, the impressive Francois Louw.
The senior forwards, particularly, have reached their used-by date.
John Smit looks to be massively over-weight. The huge back row are flat wicket bullies who do not front up when the going gets fast and furious. And their second row, especially 33 year-old Victor Matfield, provides nothing around the field except at lineout time.
It has been noticeable, for instance, that the Springboks have not been able to mount even one rolling maul (the staple of the Bulls dominance in 2009 and 2010) in two Tests.
There is no variety or cunning in the backs without du Preez, either.
Bryan Habana seems to have lost his eagerness to chase everything. The rest of the backs are solid but without the sort of skills and footwork of most of the All Blacks and the Wallabies backs.
The All Blacks run-on side had 596 caps. During the Test there were four new 2010 caps on the field, with Aaron Cruden, Sam Whitelock, Israel Dagg and Renee Ranger. Both Ranger and Dagg scored tries. Both played in a way, aside from Ranger’s occasional handling lapses, that suggests that will be super-stars in the future.
Dagg’s try was the sort of genius running effort that a young Habana or Christian Cullen would have been thrilled to have pulled off in their prime. It was try 152 by the All Blacks against the Springboks, and one of the best individual efforts in that tally.
I always believe that a well-selected side has growth built into it. The All Blacks have this.
The Springboks, however, remind me of Disraeli’s joke about Gladstone’s ageing front bench in his last administration that they were “a range of extinct volcanoes.”
Last Monday I suggested that the Springboks might resort to more thuggery to get their game plan working. The referee Alain Rolland, an Irishman and a splendid referee on the night, was obviously expecting something of the same thing when he reversed a penalty after three minutes of play and yellow-carded Danie Rossouw.
Initially it seemed like the yellow card was harsh. But replays on YouTube suggested that Rossouw had flicked his fingers across and into Richie McCaw’s eyes and then kneed him on the ground. This is reckless play by any standards and the yellow card was justified. The referee was standing virtually right beside Rossouw so he saw every part of the incident.
It will be interesting to see if the Springboks change their side significantly for the Test at Brisbane.
The odds are that they won’t. For right now the back-up players are very much in the same old mould of the starting side. Ruan Pienaar, for instance, didn’t bring much difference to the game plan when he came on for Ricky Januarie.
So the game the Wallabies will have to beat at Brisbane will be the kick-chase and pressure game of the last three years. The difference for the Springboks and the Wallabies is that the chase has gone out of this game, for the time being. Some of the venom in the forwards play has gone too.
And most importantly, the tackled ball rulings now favours the side with the ball in hand. This change was not refereed particularly well at Auckland by Alun Lewis who gave something like seven consecutive penalties to the out-played Springboks during the middle part of the Test. Rolland, though, did well and the penalty count was ten to New Zealand, and nine to South Africa.
The Springboks were lucky that on a foul Wellington night Daniel Carter missed six kicks, most of which he would normally kick.
The tackled ball ruling has been exploited by the All Blacks by keeping the ball in hand for long periods of time. The Wallabies will have to play a similar game. But with a difference. The All Blacks pack was too strong for the Springboks with the consequence that they won the advantage line battle easily.
It is doubtful if the Wallabies pack is at the same level of power and have the same technique of a low body height when charging into the opposition as the All Blacks. Most the ball running by the Wallabies will have to be done by the backs with the ball moved out wider more often than the All Blacks have done this season.
The effect of the different styles of keeping the ball in hand, though, is the same. The Springboks do not seem to have the aerobic fitness to last out this type of game, or to launch a similar type of ball-in-hand game themselves.
One other point, too. There has not been much discussion of the change in the All Blacks’ tackling style. They have given up the ball-and-all style of last season. Whenever they can, they tackle low. The Springboks runners toppled to the ground like felled logs.
As soon as the runner hit the ground with this type of tackle, the second tackler can make a play for the ball. This led to several important turnovers, including one by McCaw after the Springboks had driven from a 5m lineout.
According to an interesting article in the Sun Herald by Josh Rakic, Robbie Deans ran a backline at last Friday’s training session of Will Genia, Quade Cooper, Matt Giteau, Rob Horne, Adam Ashley Cooper, Drew Mitchell and James O’Connor.
If this is the backline then it suggests a wide game rather than hitting the middle of the field with Anthony Faingaa, the Reds inside centre. Although you’d expect Faingaa to feature some time in the Test.
There has also been talk, too, of a backrow of Scott Higginbottom and Rocky Elsom as flankers and David Pocock at number 8.
The idea here is to have two runners and a digger at number 8 coming in as the second tackler. Tim Horan has also suggested that Elsom should play wider from general play to give the Wallabies some sort of bulk in the middle of the field.
After the demolition job done on the Springboks by the All Blacks it is clear that now is the time for the Wallabies to do the same thing. Although the Springboks have played two Tri-Nations Tests and the Wallabies yet to start in this season’s series, both sides have the same number of competition points: none.
The only acceptable result next Saturday night is a Wallaby victory.