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The Springboks go to their hoodoo ground at Brisbane on Saturday night ready to be put to the sword by the Wallabies. The 2007 RWC champions are an aging, leaden-footed, lacking-in-ideas imitation of the great side of the last three years.
Without the genius of Fourie du Preez they play their kick-chase, force penalties game as if they are painting by numbers.
Beaten 31-17 and four tries to two, the Springboks sent out a side against the All Blacks that had 700 caps, the most experienced South African side of all time. The side has only one new 2010 cap, the impressive Francois Louw.
The senior forwards, particularly, have reached their used-by date.
John Smit looks to be massively over-weight. The huge back row are flat wicket bullies who do not front up when the going gets fast and furious. And their second row, especially 33 year-old Victor Matfield, provides nothing around the field except at lineout time.
It has been noticeable, for instance, that the Springboks have not been able to mount even one rolling maul (the staple of the Bulls dominance in 2009 and 2010) in two Tests.
There is no variety or cunning in the backs without du Preez, either.
Bryan Habana seems to have lost his eagerness to chase everything. The rest of the backs are solid but without the sort of skills and footwork of most of the All Blacks and the Wallabies backs.
The All Blacks run-on side had 596 caps. During the Test there were four new 2010 caps on the field, with Aaron Cruden, Sam Whitelock, Israel Dagg and Renee Ranger. Both Ranger and Dagg scored tries. Both played in a way, aside from Ranger’s occasional handling lapses, that suggests that will be super-stars in the future.
Dagg’s try was the sort of genius running effort that a young Habana or Christian Cullen would have been thrilled to have pulled off in their prime. It was try 152 by the All Blacks against the Springboks, and one of the best individual efforts in that tally.
I always believe that a well-selected side has growth built into it. The All Blacks have this.
The Springboks, however, remind me of Disraeli’s joke about Gladstone’s ageing front bench in his last administration that they were “a range of extinct volcanoes.”
Last Monday I suggested that the Springboks might resort to more thuggery to get their game plan working. The referee Alain Rolland, an Irishman and a splendid referee on the night, was obviously expecting something of the same thing when he reversed a penalty after three minutes of play and yellow-carded Danie Rossouw.
Initially it seemed like the yellow card was harsh. But replays on YouTube suggested that Rossouw had flicked his fingers across and into Richie McCaw’s eyes and then kneed him on the ground. This is reckless play by any standards and the yellow card was justified. The referee was standing virtually right beside Rossouw so he saw every part of the incident.
It will be interesting to see if the Springboks change their side significantly for the Test at Brisbane.
The odds are that they won’t. For right now the back-up players are very much in the same old mould of the starting side. Ruan Pienaar, for instance, didn’t bring much difference to the game plan when he came on for Ricky Januarie.
So the game the Wallabies will have to beat at Brisbane will be the kick-chase and pressure game of the last three years. The difference for the Springboks and the Wallabies is that the chase has gone out of this game, for the time being. Some of the venom in the forwards play has gone too.
And most importantly, the tackled ball rulings now favours the side with the ball in hand. This change was not refereed particularly well at Auckland by Alun Lewis who gave something like seven consecutive penalties to the out-played Springboks during the middle part of the Test. Rolland, though, did well and the penalty count was ten to New Zealand, and nine to South Africa.
The Springboks were lucky that on a foul Wellington night Daniel Carter missed six kicks, most of which he would normally kick.
The tackled ball ruling has been exploited by the All Blacks by keeping the ball in hand for long periods of time. The Wallabies will have to play a similar game. But with a difference. The All Blacks pack was too strong for the Springboks with the consequence that they won the advantage line battle easily.
It is doubtful if the Wallabies pack is at the same level of power and have the same technique of a low body height when charging into the opposition as the All Blacks. Most the ball running by the Wallabies will have to be done by the backs with the ball moved out wider more often than the All Blacks have done this season.
The effect of the different styles of keeping the ball in hand, though, is the same. The Springboks do not seem to have the aerobic fitness to last out this type of game, or to launch a similar type of ball-in-hand game themselves.
One other point, too. There has not been much discussion of the change in the All Blacks’ tackling style. They have given up the ball-and-all style of last season. Whenever they can, they tackle low. The Springboks runners toppled to the ground like felled logs.
As soon as the runner hit the ground with this type of tackle, the second tackler can make a play for the ball. This led to several important turnovers, including one by McCaw after the Springboks had driven from a 5m lineout.
According to an interesting article in the Sun Herald by Josh Rakic, Robbie Deans ran a backline at last Friday’s training session of Will Genia, Quade Cooper, Matt Giteau, Rob Horne, Adam Ashley Cooper, Drew Mitchell and James O’Connor.
If this is the backline then it suggests a wide game rather than hitting the middle of the field with Anthony Faingaa, the Reds inside centre. Although you’d expect Faingaa to feature some time in the Test.
There has also been talk, too, of a backrow of Scott Higginbottom and Rocky Elsom as flankers and David Pocock at number 8.
The idea here is to have two runners and a digger at number 8 coming in as the second tackler. Tim Horan has also suggested that Elsom should play wider from general play to give the Wallabies some sort of bulk in the middle of the field.
After the demolition job done on the Springboks by the All Blacks it is clear that now is the time for the Wallabies to do the same thing. Although the Springboks have played two Tri-Nations Tests and the Wallabies yet to start in this season’s series, both sides have the same number of competition points: none.
The only acceptable result next Saturday night is a Wallaby victory.
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counterruck said | July 19th 2010 @ 6:55am | Report comment
I would be amazed if the Wallabies dont win comfortably. Boks will be tired and demoralized with one foot on the plane. for all the talk from the wallaby camp of fronting up physically a faster, ball in hand approach seems the obvious way to go to beat the boks. from a bok perspective some obvious changes need to be made to both personal and gameplan. On recent history PdV will probably shift cj van der linde to flyhalf and put jon smit on the wing and try to win with kick chase.
The Other Reds Fan. said | July 19th 2010 @ 11:16am | Report comment
Toughen up with some Reds like Slipper, Simmons, Higginbotham and Anthony Faingaa and we are a chance, but stick to the old plan and we are stuffed. Pity we don’t also have Digby, Chambers, Davies and Hynes. But they really should have gone for Van Humphries.
jokerman said | July 19th 2010 @ 11:42am | Report comment
Nice analyses Spiro. Always like your articles. I’m from NZ. I find he Rugby writers there below par, and parjoritve. They are more positive now (On the All Blacks) but when the All Blaks lose, they get angry! Which is immature and sad.
You are right about a champion side still needing that posible injection of youth and talant. S.A is the Same old and not evolving, and also unaware of this
I was suprise two writers from this web site predicted a SA win aganst the All Black in Wellington. Crazy eh!
Ben S said | July 19th 2010 @ 7:28am | Report comment
The absence of Jean de Villiers will most likely provoke the ascension of Aplon to the 14 jersey, and he is a player with a rare gift, although what point is there in having a gift if your outside centre (Fourie last Saturday) is throwing wild passes over your head?
Will SA be demoralized, or will they be pumped up? We won’t know until Saturday. Will Genia, Robinson and Moore (if selected) be match fit? Again, we won’t know until Saturday. I wouldn’t fancy making a judgement call this early in the week.
If the SA selection becomes a bit more balanced, a bit more streamlined, and SA do the basics well (i.e. scrum time and lineout time) then there’s no reason that they shouldn’t pick up some points. Significantly, at this point in time it is hard to put any real faith in Australia to win. That said, following the recent 3N rugby it is equally hard to place any faith in SA. Australia need to win more than SA do. That is the only definite.
Hayden said | July 19th 2010 @ 7:29am | Report comment
Wallabies by 10, although I’ll reserve the right to change once both teams have been announced.
Stevedarke said | July 19th 2010 @ 7:36am | Report comment
The boks are sadly a team of ageing superstars led by an ill-equipped coach. It looks like they are more worried about avoiding injury 11 months prior to the RWC. The Wallabies should win comfortably really.
Mike said | July 19th 2010 @ 7:39am | Report comment
Habana could never have scored that Dagg try – He is a straight running line, intercept king with speed.
I’ve never seen him beat anyone with a serve or sidestep or agility. As such he may have scored a few tries but will never be known as a classic great winger with skill
Rusty said | July 19th 2010 @ 8:49am | Report comment
try watching the pool game versus Samoa in the last world cup
The all new King of the Gorganites said | July 19th 2010 @ 9:25am | Report comment
what about the pool game where he got burnt badly by the flying American winger…………..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RegISbXXmCE&feature=PlayList&p=FC0767F0829E494E&playnext_from=PL&playnext=1&index=1
Rusty said | July 19th 2010 @ 10:02am | Report comment
awesome pace
DaMan3000 said | July 19th 2010 @ 11:54am | Report comment
It looks like Habana is catching him up at the end…
The all new King of the Gorganites said | July 19th 2010 @ 3:22pm | Report comment
to little to late though.
Jerry said | July 20th 2010 @ 5:12pm | Report comment
If he was catching him he wouldn’t have tried a last ditch ankle tap at the 22.
inkosi said | July 19th 2010 @ 9:29am | Report comment
That Dagg try was something you would have expected of QC – but was absolutely fantastic and to get past Spies & Burger well done Dagg!
Rusty said | July 19th 2010 @ 4:03pm | Report comment
He is a massive talent isnt he – any round up on the rumours of him leaving the Highlanders next season? If true then they are going to be competing with the Lions next year
Winston said | July 19th 2010 @ 9:48pm | Report comment
I know but how good will the saders be now
johnny-boy said | July 19th 2010 @ 7:40am | Report comment
I’ll be amazed if the Wallabies do win comfortably ! The Springboks are wounded and will be very dangerous. At least they will be keeping their fingers to themselves (no gauranteee tho
and by concentrating on playing rugby they will be even more dificult. Especially if they bring a lock in with an IQ over 3 (ie Bekker). If the Wallabies can face up to this one with collective power, without trying to set the world on fire with some individual brilliance from the 1st b….. minute, Wallaby supporters can put away their tissues for another week.
Jason Cave said | July 19th 2010 @ 7:43am | Report comment
I think the Springboks are holding something back in terms in competiveness, thinking more about the Rugby World Cup in 12 months time than winning the Tri-Nations. If South Africa loses to the Wallabies, then it’s time to start experimenting. Bring in players from the Currie Cup with an eye to NZ 2011 and start phasing out the ‘old guard’, because the way the Springboks are playing now, they may be given no chance of going back-to-back in NZ next year.
Willy said | July 19th 2010 @ 8:11am | Report comment
The RWC draw isn’t kind to them either Jason.
As it stands, we’re likely to see NZ v SA in one semi and Aust v France/Eng in the other.
I’ve already backed in the NZ/Aust quinella at 7/1. Very, very generous if you ask me.
Brettongs said | July 19th 2010 @ 10:55pm | Report comment
This Tri-nations is already reminding me alot of the 2006 version. From memory, the Boks lost a few games and looked a side without direction and then went on to win the 2007 World Cup. At the end of the day, this is the one true piece of silverware that gives you bragging rights for 4 years. If the AB’s fail to win it this time (and in their own backyard) – there will be serious questions asked of the toughness of this side. So brag all you want Kiwis – next year is when the real men come out to play!!!
Mikey said | July 19th 2010 @ 8:05am | Report comment
Good on ya Spiro – you delayed mention of Fourie du Preez to at least para 2.
Looking forward to the day when you write about who is there & playing rather than may have happened if FdP was around!
Willy said | July 19th 2010 @ 8:09am | Report comment
The Reds then the Crusaders and now the All Blacks have shown how to beat these South Africans.
But I fear the Wallabies will still lack the intelligence, skill and courage to play the running game that the Kiwis have employed so brilliantly in the past two weeks.
It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the sort of timid and intellectually bankrupt game the Wallabies produced in losing to England last month.
I hope and pray, however, that I’m wrong!
As long as it is a competitive game said | July 19th 2010 @ 8:40am | Report comment
We are all armchair experts. I would just like to see a good competitive game. Want to see less back slapping by Australia. The current product is poor and the interest is watching live is falling rapidly. Too much talk from the players and coaches and commentators about young blood/building/superstars. We are too inconsistent as a team to make any predictions Any team at any time at the moment can win. I just want to see a good game for a change. I for one love the fact that teams are different and like to see old players as well as the young ones. Spiro the only acceptable result for Saturday is a good competitive game – value for money for a change not a one sided predictable poor exhibition of rugby skills. The kiwis are always the benchmark and South Africa shows the old school of tough rugby which I also like but the Wallabies at the moment too hot and cold (inconsistent).