Are the All Blacks peaking too soon?
Roar Rookie By Neville Howard, 3 Aug 2010 Neville Howard is a Roar Rookie
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- All Blacks, Graham Henry, Rugby Union, Tri Nations, wallabies
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If I was Graham Henry, I’d be a concerned man right now. Looking at the stats and the amazing performance of the All Blacks since the start of the international Test season for 2010, all I can say is they’re riding the crest of a wave.
Thus far, the All Blacks have swept aside Wales and Ireland.
After this, they made easy pickings of the world champion Springboks (with their internal politics possibly being their greatest enemy), followed by a ‘walk-over’ against The Wallabies – on a pitch which received more publicity in lead up to the game than the teams themselves.
A few reasons for the All Blacks’ dominance include the fact that they interpret the new rules better, and strategically they look to be on the front foot around loose mauls more often than not, even if they don’t go in with ball in hand.
From a Springbok point of view, there are conspiracy theories thrown around regarding ‘rigged games’, and fingers are being pointed at the cheat, Richie McCaw.
Wallaby analysts noted at the start of the season that they possibly lack in conditioning and can’t play the physical game required to beat teams like the All Blacks, with the Wallaby players being on average four kilograms smaller than a few years before.
But is there more to it?
The Wallabies have numerous injuries, the Boks have injuries, suspensions, and are yet to find a constantly performing loose three at the back of the scrum. At the same time, everything’s coming together for the All Blacks.
They have no injuries, no suspensions, and their combinations gel better than O’Neill’s hairdo.
Is everything going too well? Is history repeating itself?
The year leading up to the World Cup has proven to be an unpredictable one. And having a quick review of the statistics from 2006 (pre-2007 World Cup), I’d be one worried All Blacks coach:
In 2006, the All Blacks played 6, won 5, lost 1. They ended top of the log, Tri-Nations champions with a favourable point difference of a massive 67.
Australia ended second on the log, beating South Africa in Brisbane, and again in Sydney. South Africa in turn ended last, winning only 2 home games, one against each visiting team.
The All Blacks looked unstoppable. Déjà vu?
It’s a cycle the All Blacks are too familiar with, and besides the label ‘chokers’, the second term thrown around must be ‘peaking too soon’. Their players look to be in great condition, and their game plan looks to be unbreakable, but the Wallabies and Springboks have fourteen months to reflect, review, and analyse.
The Boks have been playing the Jake White 2007 strategy for three years now, and it’s time to re-invent their game.
The Wallabies have to keep the current combinations and blood the young players in time for the World Cup (and possibly get the boys on a high protein diet)
Come 2011, the All Blacks would definitely have lost the edge they currently possess, and can only hope that they have taken their strategies, combinations to the next level in effort to retain dominance.
I think the Wallabies and the Springboks are currently playing catch up rugby, but the All Blacks have their best cards on the table, and it’s up to us to go fish.
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August 3rd 2010 @ 2:34am
ohtani's jacket said | August 3rd 2010 @ 2:34am | Report comment
Personally, I don’t believe in all this peaking for the World Cup rot, but even if there’s some credence to it what are the All Blacks supposed to do? Tank the season? Hold back until next year? The All Blacks have tried building to World Cups and they’ve tried turning it on in a World Cup year. They’ve even tried to turn things around at the Cup.
The All Blacks had two tough seasons in 2008 and 2009 and turned the corner in Marsaille last year. They’ve had their share of luck this year, but they have no control over what happens to Australia and South Africa. They had injury concerns of their own but they’ve been forgotten in light of the on field results.
History tells us a lot of things. It tells us that no side has ever won back to back World Cups, so there’s a challenge for South Africa. It also tells us that Australia had big wins over New Zealand before winning both of its WCs, so there’s a challenge for Australia. It even tells us that when the All Blacks are good it usually lasts for two seasons. So yes, any manner of things could happen.
August 3rd 2010 @ 3:24am
Ben S said | August 3rd 2010 @ 3:24am | Report comment
Of course it’s rubbish. NZ are doing well at the moment so the media can hardly write endless articles on how NZ are simply better than other teams. There has to be an element of hubris or the public aren’t interested. I think it’s ridiculous and boring. I think France played out the 6N in a conservative manner befitting knock-out rugby. Nobody said they’d peaked too soon when SA and Argentina demolished them in successive weeks.
August 3rd 2010 @ 3:37am
Hayden said | August 3rd 2010 @ 3:37am | Report comment
Agree with the above. Also, the ABs do have injuries. It’s just that they have depth to cover for them. No suspensions? Sorry if they are smarter than everyone else also. The thing is, I don’t think this team has peaked. There are new players coming through that have lots of room for development yet, and that is keeping the pressure on the incumbents. A case in point is Mils. In 05, you knew that barring injury he was going to the the FB at the WC. Now he has Dagg breathing down his neck. Ditto pretty much anyone in the back line except Carter, and anyone in the forwards except McCaw and Thorn.
August 3rd 2010 @ 7:40am
Richierich said | August 3rd 2010 @ 7:40am | Report comment
I concur with OJ, Ben and Hayden.
This peaking to early wish wash is just another attempt by those outside the AB fan base to find someway to get a negative dig at the All Blacks. It never changes and I doubt it ever will.
The All Blacks do have injuries as Hayden has already pointed out.
Andrew Hore, Sitivini Sivivatu, Richard Kahui, Ali Williams and Now Jimmy Cowan.
And another pointed alluded to by Hayden is that the back up are doing a fantastic job and have really upped their games. The competition for places is definitely having an impact it is undeniable. Not only is their competition for bench spots their is also competition for squad spots re the likes of Messam, Braid, Luke McCalister, Adam Thompson Hosea Gear(how this guys has not got a run is beyond most AB fans) just to name a few.
Do not be surprised to see a few of the Stars stay behind instead of going to the republic or at the very least on the bench.
If Henry and his merry men can secure the Tri Nations on Saturday in Christchurch, it would be highly likely that he rest players and throw others such as Dagg, Vito, Cruden into the cauldron to see how they handle big match pressure. What a better chance to do this in front of 90,000 screaming Bok supporters. The result really would be irrelevant as the ABs have already proved they can beat the Boks and do it convincingly.
This AB team still has a long way to go I believe and as an AB fan I am excited about the prospects and what the future tests hold this year, will there be any bolters come the end of season tour or will he stay with the tried and true to perfect the combination’s.
August 3rd 2010 @ 7:43am
Viscount Crouchback said | August 3rd 2010 @ 7:43am | Report comment
Ditto. I love the World Cup as a concept, but if its presence enables idiots to downplay magnificent rugby merely because it’s not played in a World Cup year, then frankly I despair. We need to get the Cup back in its proper context – it’s a good tournament but is by no means the definitive test of a team’s class. New Zealand have been brilliant this season – let’s worry about the World Cup in 2011.
August 3rd 2010 @ 8:06am
kovana said | August 3rd 2010 @ 8:06am | Report comment
Agree with this article.
Its all deja vu again. 2006 they were just unstoppable. We all remember what happended in 2007 RWC.
Just look at some other years leading up to the RWC. NZ is top dog, no one can argue that, But that RWC seems to get harder and harder to reach for the men in BLACK.
But. I think its a great thing for the game in general for the AB’s not to win the RWC. Coz lets be honest. Every other nation watches the RWC to see NZ lose. And its a great feeling of contentment when they do lose.
World rugby NEEDS NZ to lose the RWC so that Rugby GLOBALLY can grow.
Look at League as an example. No other country wishes to take up the sport because Australia are just so far ahead of everybody else.
August 3rd 2010 @ 10:08am
Hayden said | August 3rd 2010 @ 10:08am | Report comment
Kovana, apart from 2007, when did they peak too soon before a WC? Age has made my recollection hazy, but in 86 they were in a major rebuilding mode, clearly out of gas by 91, 94 I can’t remember, 98 absolute rubbish, 02?
I think this ‘peak a year too soon’ is wishful thinking for the uninformed. That said, it shows how sad it must be to be a Wallaby supporter, amongst others, if all they have to live for is the ABs losing every four years. I personally would prefer to see the ABs play consistently the best rugby in the world, and never again win the WC, than to have to support a team that got served like the Wannabies did last week.
August 3rd 2010 @ 10:20am
Jerry said | August 3rd 2010 @ 10:20am | Report comment
In 94 they lost the Bledisloe to Aus (that Gregan tackle on Wilson) and lost a home series to France 2-0. Hardly pace setting.
August 3rd 2010 @ 8:58am
hanzo said | August 3rd 2010 @ 8:58am | Report comment
As an all black supporter i expect them to be at their peak every single test match, anything else is unacceptable. so of course as you say they are “peaking too soon” in regards to the world cup. But how they play today has no effect on how they play 15 months from now.
August 3rd 2010 @ 11:26am
Nick_KIA said | August 3rd 2010 @ 11:26am | Report comment
To me the real question is “Have the Wallabies troughed too late?”
August 3rd 2010 @ 11:42am
Hayden said | August 3rd 2010 @ 11:42am | Report comment
Or have they troughed yet at all? I guess this weekend will tell.
August 3rd 2010 @ 11:49am
Richierich said | August 3rd 2010 @ 11:49am | Report comment
Team announced for Saturday
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=10663271
August 3rd 2010 @ 2:13pm
MarkR said | August 3rd 2010 @ 2:13pm | Report comment
OK – Stanley was solid in his outings, but dropping Dagg ?
August 3rd 2010 @ 12:37pm
zhenry said | August 3rd 2010 @ 12:37pm | Report comment
NZ were silly enough to sell off most of their media to Australian companies. That means NZ does not control the agenda for any issue including sport. Australians will always think up something to be critical. I dont think I have ever heard the Boks or WALs peaking too early, its old hat for AB’s. The AB’s do have injuries, 7 in total not including Cowan. I am not going to tell you who they are either because you need to focus more if you write about such things.
August 3rd 2010 @ 12:53pm
Rin said | August 3rd 2010 @ 12:53pm | Report comment
Yup agree they peaked to early, there will be too much pressure on them to win the RWC esp since its at home. I would personally be more worried if they werent playing such amazing ruggas as i knew they would be saving it for the RWC.
i can see their BMT come under scrutiny as the RWC approaches.
Rin