Gary Ablett of Geelong celebrates a goal during the AFL Round 01 match between the Geelong Cats and the Essendon Bombers at the MCG, Melbourne. Slattery Images
This Geelong side can go down in history as one of the all-time greats. It just depends on how the next eight weeks pan out, starting tonight against Collingwood.
They’ve already claimed two premierships from three consecutive grand final appearances. They’ve already changed the way the game is played. They’ve already won an incredible amount of respect and admiration from the footy community.
But so far, all that earns them is the status of being a “very good” team. They are yet to fully cement themselves as a “great” team.
Premierships are the most valuable commodity in discussions of greatness and for the Cats, they have this year and this year only to match Brisbane’s record of lifting the cup three times from four straight attempts, which it did between 2001 and 2004. Granted, the Lions pulled off a three-peat, but consistency over a four-year period is no easy feat in its own right.
In fact, the Cats’ far superior record in the home and away season could very well see them surpass the Lions, who did not claim a minor premiership, let alone win more than 17 games, in a single regular season.
Should Geelong win their next four games, aside from claiming a third minor premiership, they will have won 18 or more games in all four of their years at the top. A truly remarkable record if they can pull it off.
But of course, the word “if” is the one that stands out right now. They haven’t lifted that third cup yet. There are some pretty decent sides ready to challenge them for the title. And with Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs in the next two weeks, not even home and away domination is assured.
They can’t afford a 2008-style slip up, because even if Gary Ablett doesn’t end up on the Gold Coast, backing up next year would be tough. Cam Mooney has already admitted as much.
“We’re not talking about it, don’t get me wrong, but deep down you know this is our last crack at it,” Mooney said earlier in the year. “Anything more than a four-year window has never happened, other than 20-30 years ago when Hawthorn were so dominant.”
So, really, it all comes down to what happens between now and the last Saturday in September.
Time will tell whether the Cats can move up to the greatness category in that time, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them do it. They are at practically full strength, with Max Rooke the only premiership player on the list currently unavailable for selection.
The importance of this fact should be obvious. Of Geelong’s eight losses during the past two years, Brad Ottens didn’t play in six of them, and both Steve Johnson and Matthew Scarlett missed half of them. The last time they lost with all three playing was the ’08 grand final.
A full-strength Geelong is a very, very hard team to take down. An injury-hit Geelong is far more vulnerable.
Naturally, there are a few clubs that would have a fair bit to say about all this speculation of greatness. Make no mistake, Collingwood are a genuine threat. It’s too early to write St Kilda off. The Bulldogs and Hawthorn have a chance.
So nothing at all is set in stone. No one’s stepped up and claimed this season as their own yet. But that just makes the next eight weeks all that more intriguing. Bring it on.
Now, a few words on tonight’s game.
The last time the Cats and Pies met was in Round 9. Going into that game, it was pointed out in this column that Collingwood had conceded 102, 91 and 97 points in their three previous games, compared to Geelong only letting through 53, 59 and 74 – a fitting stat considering the result ended up 86-50 in the Cats’ favour.
Since then, however, the Pies’ defence has noticeably lifted. From Round 12, no team has scored more than 80 points against them. The past three weeks their opponents have averaged 51 points.
Some of the Pies’ lesser-known talent have continued to step up as the season has progressed as well.
Adding to the intrigue of tonight, meanwhile, is the fact Geelong haven’t gone backwards since Round 9 either, given their full strength status.
Stevie J looms as a key figure in this contest given his form since returning from suspension two weeks ago and the fact he’s done reasonably well against the Pies in the past. Gary Ablett pushing up the ground could also cause problems.
Leon Davis has returned to some form for Collingwood, meanwhile, with seven goals the past two weeks. Plus, Travis Cloke was in good touch last week, save for some woeful kicking. However it’s the much talked-about “multiple avenues to goal” that could prove most dangerous at that end of the ground.
There’s little doubt in my mind Collingwood have closed the gap on Geelong in the past ten weeks. But with the Cats also sneaking forward, that alone won’t guarantee a Pies victory.
What it should guarantee, however, is a closer match this time around. Once again, bring it on.
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