Most mixed martial arts fans think Brock Lesnar is unstoppable, and I will readily admit that Lesnar is one fearsome beast. For the last three years he has dominated the UFC, marching through to the top of the heavyweight division by beating Frank Mir, Randy Couture and Shane Carwin no less.
Lesnar is a former NCAA college wrestling champion, who has to cut weight just to make it to the 260 pound limit. An animal in every sense of the word.
Whilst everyone has got lost in the hype that is Lesnar, I see a very beatable champion.
I see Lesnar as very one dimensional, something that was no more evident than in his clash with Shane Carwin at UFC 116. Shane Carwin fed Brock, hammerfist after hammerfist and almost stopped Lesnar in the first round.
When he wasn’t eating punches, all Brock could manage to do was use his weight and size and lay all over Carwin and tire him out. Once Carwin was on the ground, to his credit, Lesnar used his weight and strength to submit Carwin in an arm triangle choke.
But a telling factor in that fight was Carwin. The fight versus Lesnar at UFC 116 was the first time Carwin had ever gone beyond the first round.
Lesnar even commented in interviews hyping the clash with Velasquez that against Carwin his team prepared for seven minutes, knowing having never gone past the first round, Carwin wouldn’t have much left if he needed to do so.
We all saw the trouble Lesnar was in and the fight versus Carwin was very close to getting stopped. Some could say Lesnar got lucky.
This wont happen against Cain Velasquez.
Those that are counting out Velasquez point to the fact that Cain last fought in Febuary on UFC 110 in my town of Sydney, Australia.
But this is not nearly the big deal, it is being made out as.
But Lesnar is not exactly “fight-conditioned” himself. He has only had to go past the second round once, which was in his three-round decision win over Heath Herring, a fighter that caused Brock zero problems.
It remains the only time a Lesnar fight has gone the distance.
Brock has not yet fought a top level heavyweight that has had the ability to take Brock five rounds.
Lesnar is still relatively new to the sport of MMA, with his record standing at six fights for five wins and one loss. He is yet to have a real “war” as all his wins have been swift and convincing.
Velasquez, I’ll admit, doesn’t have the greatest of records himself in terms of “name” fighters, but he does have Cheick Kongo and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, (who would give any of the current heavyweights a tough time), in his 8-0 unblemished MMA career.
Seven of Velasquez’s wins came by knockout, with one against the tough Cheick Kongo going to decision. Cain, like Lesnar, has only gone past the second round once, with six fights finishing in the very first round.
But whilst Lesnar has the size, Velasquez has the engine. Cain is younger at 28, to Lesnar’s 35.
But more than that, Cain is simply a more polished MMA fighter.
Cain is a tremendous striker, has got good take-down, can dirty box and has brutal ground and pound.
But what is most impressive about Cain is his athleticism.
Everyone in MMA “loses their shit” on how Brock can move so fast and smooth for his size. But Cain can move just as quick, just as smooth, but with more intensity and for longer.
Cain doesn’t have to carry as big a frame as Brock around and I feel in a five-round fight, that will be the difference.
It is widely known in the MMA world that Cain is not only the fittest and most athletic heavyweight in his gym, but many who work with Cain at the gym, say he is the fittest and most athletic fighter!
Put it this way, how many heavyweights do you see throwing head-kicks at their opponents?
Brock Lesnar is a very good fighter, and he is still learning and will get better.
But as they say in the fight world, “styles make fights” and Cain has the style and tools to stop the current heavyweight champion.
There is an old saying in fighting: “Take him to deep water and drown him.” And that is exactly what Cain must do.
The big frame of Lesnar will prove hard to carry for five rounds and I expect Brock to gas. Cain must use his skills to outwork and outbox Lesnar and take some of the early rounds.
Cain must fight a high intensity fight and hope that Brock gases later in the fight, as I expect, at which point Cain can either look to finish the fight or build a substantial lead that should take him to a decision.
As I mentioned earlier, I see Lesnar as one-dimensional. I think he is a limited fighter, with only a few strengths. But if given the chance to use these strengths, then he is lethal.
Cain must fight at a distance and use his superior striking to his advantage. He must push the tempo and make Brock work and force him to move.
If Cain allows himself to be taken down and allow Brock to lay all over him, he will most certainly end up another victim of Mr. Lesnar.
I feel this fight is the biggest UFC fight in history, and I expect to see it become the highest selling UFC pay per view of all time.
I also expect Cain Velasquez to walk out as the new UFC heavyweight champion
If Brock can beat Cain, well, I will eat a large dose of humble pie (wouldn’t be the first time).
But be sure, if Cain walks out of the octagon the new champ, y’all gonna be hearing about it!
Official prediction: Velasquez by decision/late fight stoppage
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