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The Super Rugby season is getting closer and closer. Today we have the pleasure of previewing a very strong New Zealand conference that could be much closer than previous years indicate.
I saw a couple of Six Nations games last weekend and it seemed that, given a little bit of luck, the personnel a few of the New Zealand franchises have put together would be enough to beat a Six Nations team!
Otago Highlanders:
The Highlanders play the Bulls and the Stormers away and the Crusaders twice in the first nine games of their season. That could pretty much put to bed hopes of a rare top half finish for the men from the south.
I think the biggest development of the off-season for the Highlanders was losing Israel Dagg. For a long time the Highlanders have had plenty of players that grind away with the best and can do the basics well, but in Israel Dagg they had a player that gave them the x-factor they needed to win in a closely fought competition.
The stars of their team now are probably Jimmy Cowan, who, when focused is up there with any number 9, and Tim Donnelly. Colin Slade has a chance to make a name for himself here and become a world-class ball-player as he is going to be the focal point of their attack.
Another name to watch out for is Jason Ruteledge. Last year, I think, was his best year in rugby. In a game against the Waratahs he almost single-handedly stopped the Waratahs’ momentum at every turn. For a hooker he gets to the breakdown quickly and has a very tenacious attitude.
This year isn’t going to be the Highlanders year, but there are building blocks to make into solid foundations. The rugby world is used to watching them lose, but I don’t think it will be that way forever. If they could find a few larger than life players and manage to keep them in their squad for a few years, a losing 2011 could quickly become a distant memory.
Conference prediction: 5th.
Waikato Chiefs:
Every year the Chiefs play a spell of games that are almost good enough to believe they can contend for the title. Every year they play a spell of games that make you wonder whether they are really the same team. With a quick start to the competition last year Chiefs’ fans were holding their breath, wondering if they could start hoping. But with a middle stretch of tough matches they let serious finals dreams go for another year.
In 2011 the Chiefs will be trying to stave off those sorts of meltdowns.
The key could be getting consistent play throughout the competition from the experienced pair of Brendon Leonard and Stephen Donald. In particular, Donald is known for having brilliant games and the next week going missing. His goal-kicking duties are important, obviously, and also tend to fluctuate with his confidence. Somehow Ian Fisher, the coach, needs to work out how to get a consistent game out of his pivot.
Liam Messam and Mils Muliaina are the heart and soul of the forward pack and backline respectively. They are constant workhorses and are the two to watch out for at the closing end of each half to provide something spectacular, in an effort to get their team ahead.
The Chiefs know that there isn’t three or four people can do alone to win consistently in a tough Super Rugby competition. They will be looking for impact from some players such as Richard Kahui, Issac Ross, Sitiveni Sivivatu and a few others to come together and show quality for the full length of the season.
Watch out for Scott Waldrom as a player to lift his profile. He is a solid contributor and has been for a while but could be ready to make the next step to the top of his game this year.
Also, Tana Umaga is back in southern hemisphere rugby this year. Is he past it or going to become a solid mid-field presence in a team known for fluctuation?
Conference prediction: 4th.
Auckland Blues:
The Auckland Harbourside latte set have a lot in common with their cross Tasman harbourside mates, the Sydney based Waratahs. Both of these franchises have good rugby nurseries to draw upon, both continually boast squads of outstandingly talented players, and both continue to fail to perform to their potential each year. At least the Auckland Blues have won Super Rugby trophies, seeing success in the first two seasons of the competition in 1996 and 1997 and again in 2003, which is more than can be said of the Waratahs, who have a naked trophy cabinet.
The Blues in 2011 have a wonderful array of talent to choose from, starting from an All Black front row of Tony Woodcock, Kevin Mealanu and big Joe Afua, through to the gifted backline containing Luke McAlister, Rene Ranger and the great Joe Rokocoko.
But the return of two players who were not on deck last year is where the Blues may get that required inspiration to perform consistently at their best. All Black second row strongman Ali Williams missed nearly all of last season with injury and his presence this season will be vital in both lineout work and around the paddock. Daniel Braid, who has come back from two seasons with the Queensland Reds to win an All Black jersey, will be a key man as he links up with fellow back-rower Jerome Kaino. Braid and will be missed by the Reds as his form last season in particular was outstanding.
The frustrated Auckland fans were not happy when their team came in seventh place last season, and a repeat performance will be unacceptable. In fact, I am inclined to think that if the highly credentialed men from Auckland do not make the finals series in 2011, that the loud noise you will hear from across the Tasman just before the World Cup commences will be the sound of the door hitting coach Pat Lam’s backside, on the way out of the Blues’ front office for the last time.
Conference prediction: 3rd.
Wellington Hurricanes:
Another New Zealand franchise and another collection of top class rugby players. It just doesn’t seem fair.
New head coach Mark Hammett will need to put his strategy cap on to work out what style of play he wants his team to play this year. The Hurricanes played some exhilarating rugby last season and were more than entertaining, but did not quite have the consistency to go on with the job. But any team with a classy backline containing All Blacks Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith and Hosea Gear is certainly capable of scoring plenty of tries.
But it is in their forwards that may hold the key this year. The Hurricanes have some real toilers in hooker Andrew Hore and second-rower Jason Eaton and with a back-row combination of Rodney So’oialo, Victor Vito and tough little halfback in Piri Weepu, it enables them to vary the attack in close, taking some real pressure off their star studded backline.
The boys from windy Wellington quite simply are capable of anything if they can get their act together – and get the required luck with injuries.
If these guys can make the finals series then look out.
Conference prediction: 2nd.
Canterbury Crusaders:
The Crusaders this season pose more questions than answers. For example, how many matches will Daniel Carter and Richie McCaw play; will they be rotated, rested, replaced during matches? They say not, but it is a World Cup year! Has Brad Thorn kept going for just one too many seasons and will this be the year that old father time catches up to the warhorse? How will the Crusaders cope with the inevitable Sonny-Bill Williams circus that follows him all around the globe?
Will Williams actually take the field (he has been known to get injured) in how many games will he actually contribute something? Did we detect a little chink in the armour (excuse the pun) last year when the Crusaders found themselves strangely under pressure? Finally, will any referee have the audacity to yellow card King Richie for repeated infringements at the breakdown and his usual loitering with intent? What? Never! The IRB player of the year and host captain of the 2011 rugby World Cup tournament? Not likely…
The Crusader juggernaut keeps rolling along, and with the likes of the Franks brothers up front, Chris Jack returning, Kieren Read, the elusive Corey Flynn, along with Carter, McCaw and company, the Canterbury team is again a class act. This fine rugby organisation only experiences two types of Super Rugby season – very good and great. So the real question is: which one will it be for the Crusaders in 2011?
Conference prediction: 1st.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.