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Australian cricket captain Steve Waugh (left), and Vice Captain Shane Warne (right) display the World Cup Cricket trophy. Australia's 1 Day Cricket World Cup winning team drove in a motorcade down Sydney's main street to celebrate in a ticket tape parade with over 100,000 well wishers attending. AAP Photo/ Pablo Ramire
The art of prophecy, for all its temptations, offers little but the chance to embarrass oneself in the near future. And yet, like appearing in Flava Flav reality TV shows, or going to Texan pubs to ride the mechanical bull, people keep lining up for their turn at indignity.
With the start of the World Cup only days away, let’s see how the main contenders’ chances look from here.
The ICC has gone to some lengths to ensure that, barring miracles, the non-Test-playing nations won’t pass the group stage at the expense of more credible and lucrative rivals. Of the ten teams who remain, six don’t make the frontrunners group.
New Zealand have been in freefall recently, with whitewashes against Bangladesh and India in subccontinental conditions.
West Indies could spring a surprise if their big hitters click, but their bowling lacks bite. Bangladesh are on the rise, but their history of nervy performances in big tournaments is against them.
Zimbabwe, on the comeback trail, will be more realistically at the level of their Associate competitors. England, while remaining in many pundits’ reckoning, are battling exhaustion at the end of a gruelling southern summer, and have too many troops in triage.
Clinical finisher Eoin Mogan was their most important player – when he was ruled out, England’s chances dropped from view.
Pakistan are the most dangerous team outside the top four, on the back of recent good form in New Zealand. Veterans like Shahid Afridi, Misbah-ul-Haq, and Shoaib Akthar look hungry. The torrid last twelve months will be a spur. “I want people to realize,” said Shoaib recently, “that still, very honourable people play for our country.”
Despite missing their main pace bowlers, Shoaib’s partnership with Wahab Riaz and Umar Gul looks potent. Abdur Rehman and Saeed Ajmal form a knowledgeable spin pair.
Abdul Razzaq showed his incredible late-innings power during the recent South African series in the Middle East, while Umar Akmal is also explosive. Younis Khan, the team’s class act, played himself back into form in New Zealand.
Still, all of these factors would need to click at the same time to carry Pakistan home. Their ground fielding and catching is among the worst at the tournament, and this could well be the difference. It would be a victory for the romantics and the scriptwriters if Pakistan were to get up.
Of the four likeliest teams, the recent insistence of South African players that they are not chokers seems to indicate that they’re worried about choking – hardly a good sign.
Colin Ingram has only played 11 ODIs. JP Duminy came back to earth after a Mike Hussey start to his career. AB de Villiers insists he’s happy to keep wicket, but looks uncomfortable, and his batting has dipped accordingly. Keeping to spinners on turning tracks, a couple of de Villiers mistakes could prove crucial.
Dale Steyn and Morne Morkel are the best new-ball pair in the world, but the support act of Wayne Parnell and Lonwabo Tsotsobe is a few rungs down from that. In terms of spin, Johan Botha is a canny operator, though more strangler than striker. 31-year-old Pakistan-born leggie Imran Tahir provides the romance.
Much will depend on the batting of Graeme Smith, Hashim Amla, and Jacques Kallis at one, two, and three. If they flower, they can carry the batting with them. If they fall, so do the Proteas.
India have the biggest batting names high up the order, with Virender Sehwag, Sachin Tendulkar, and Gautam Gambhir filling the top three spots. On prestige alone this should make them favourites.
But Sehwag has never quite replicated his Test form in the shorter game, and Tendulkar has played a total of two ODIs since his double-hundred a year ago. All three are also coming back from minor injuries.
Down the order will be interesting too – if MS Dhoni is capable of fireworks, Yusuf Pathan is a napalm truck parked in a steelworks while the driver has a nice cigar. A couple of devastating knocks against South Africa in recent weeks show that he’s in top form.
India’s bowling is their weaker suit – Zaheer Khan and Harbhajan Singh are their only blue-chip options, while much weight will be carried by supporting spinners Piyush Chawla and R Ashwin. An out-of-form Ashish Nehra and the never-predictable Sreesanth give the pace bowling an uncertain air.
Australia will price well with bookies due to their World Cup pedigree and recent 6-1 owning of England, but the numbers are deceptive. When England set several targets of around 300, Australia’s dubious bowling displays were masked by great chasing. When England were shot out for less, many of the wickets came down to poor batting over anything else.
Confused selection policies mean that Australia has arrived with an unbalanced side, and it’s hard to believe the players aren’t unsure of their roles and futures. Not long ago Nathan Bracken was the world’s No. 1 ODI bowler; one injury later he was a forgotten man. James Hopes seemed indispensable, now he’s vanished without a trace.
The problem for Australia is the lack of a holding bowler. Brett Lee, Mitchell Johnson, Doug Bollinger and Shaun Tait are all about attack, and all liable to be expensive.
Picking a pace battery on subcontinental decks was a dubious choice to begin with, but even more so when there’s no-one in the Bracken mould to tie up the other end.
Nathan Hauritz would have had that role, but his injury has seen him replaced by Jason Krezja, an attacking and potentially expensive spinner. With only part-time support to back him up in the form of Steve Smith, David Hussey and possibly Cameron White, the lack of spin options will severely hurt Australia.
Which brings us to the final team in the equation. Sri Lanka does not quite boast the list of stars that other nations have. And yet their current team is potent, settled, and moving like clockwork. Perhaps in this case, the absence of star wattage helps everyone keep the glare out of their eyes.
Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene are the team’s A-grade batsmen, both with that rare ability to score quickly and apparently effortlessly using classical cricket technique. Thilan Samaraweera provides stability, Tillakaratne Dilshan provides muscle and improvisation.
Down the order, Angelo Matthews fills a critical role as the late-innings finisher. As his astonishing innings to snatch victory in Melbourne last November proved, he’s made for the role. His preternaturally cool head in such circumstances is a reflection of Sangakkara’s leadership, which combines energy and purpose with dignity and gravitas. It would be hard to succumb to panic with the Sri Lankan skipper at the helm.
Sri Lanka also have the best one-day bowler in the world in Lasith Malinga, a man who holds up scoring while always remaining an attacking threat. Batsmen still struggle to counter his peculiar slinging action, and his ability to hit pinpoint yorkers with such a round-arm technique is astonishing.
Nuwan Kulasekera and Thisara Perera are two less-heralded but extremely useful seam bowling options. To follow them comes Muttiah Muralitharan, the most experienced ODI bowler in the world, in his farewell to international cricket, and his understudy, Ajantha Mendis.
With a number of part-time spin options to complement them, it’s a varied attack well suited to subcontinental conditions.
More than the calibre of player, though, is the feeling of purpose and unity about this team. You sense they have been building towards this for the past couple of years. The fact that they came to Australia this summer and won in straight sets was no accident. By all appearances, the Sri Lankans are settled, confident, sure of their roles, and playing for each other.
Sentiment and personal politics were not allowed to play a part, proved when old favourites Sanath Jayasuriya and Chaminda Vaas were left out of the final squad. Therein was a very revealing development. No more reactionary decisions. No more sentiment over intellect.
Instead, there was a single mission, easily apparent – to win this World Cup, and let nothing get in the way. So to go out on a limb, I’m tipping the blue and gold lions to do just that, over South Africa, India, and Australia. Now we just have to find out what Flava Flav thinks.