Kiwis on the All Blacks’ RWC chances
Roar Guru By Joseph N, 12 Mar 2011 The Crowd is a Roar Guru
- Tagged:
- All Blacks, Andy Dalton, Carlos Spencer, Dan Carter, Graham Henry, new zealand all blacks, Richie McCaw, Rugby Union, Rugby World Cup
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New Zealand All Blacks' player Dan Carter, left gets the ball away from Australia's Berrick Barnes during their Bledisloe Cup rugby test (AP Photo/Andrew Brownbill).
Some time back, Graham Henry stated that he would not cotton wool any of his major players before or during the rugby World Cup. But that strategy seems to be in doubt, especially the “during” part.
In an article in today’s NZ Herald, rugby writer Gregor Paul talks about the jitters many Kiwis have about the injury bugaboo coming back to haunt their team.
As Paul points out, players like Andy Dalton, Carlos Spencer, Umaga, Eaton and Ali Williams all had their RWC curtailed by injuries that came out of nowhere as injuries tend to do.
One minute you’re fit, the next you’re on crutches or drinking your meals through a straw. Dalton’s injury didn’t stop the ABs from taking the trophy in ’87, but we’ll never know what the loss of the others did to the All Blacks’ chances in other years.
This subject came up in a thread on The Roar a few days ago, and it coincided with a trip I took to Auckland on business last week. Through Aussie contacts I was able to talk to quite a few fervid New Zealand rugby fans, and I picked their brains re the RWC.
The consensus was that both Carter and McCaw are close to being irreplaceable. Their worst nightmare is that both of them get banged up. If that should happen, they said, the All Blacks would be vulnerable to the Boks and the Wallabies.
So they feel that Henry should, whenever he can, baby his two best players – a hard task with McCaw being captain.
Everybody I spoke to figured that Henry would have to put out his best team for the Tri-Nations even though the All Blacks open the RWC against Tonga just 13 days after playing the Wallabies in Brisbane.
And just about everybody saw the same Tri-Nations side playing Tonga, the A team playing Japan, definitely the top team against France, the A team against Canada, then the top team from that point on – the A team being any combo that rests Carter and/or McCaw and a few other mainstays.
Four out of ten thought the All Blacks will face the Boks in the final, the other six thought the Wallabies will be the opponents.
Those favouring the Boks thought their pack would get them to the final, those favouring the Wallabies thought our backs would overcome our scrum weakness.
As for the top All Blacks team, the consensus was Dagg in for Muliaina, and SBW sandwiched between the experience of Carter and Smith.
But there was not total agreement on the makeup of the front five.
Bottom line, I found the Kiwis to be confident of victory. But they’re all rubbing a rabbit’s foot, specially re the game against the French on September 24.
They’re sure they’ll lick France, but they don’t want Chabal busting up their best lineout man again. Or anybody whose initials are DC or RM.
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March 12th 2011 @ 6:15am
Sam Taulelei said | March 12th 2011 @ 6:15am | Report comment
Those Kiwis you spoke to who thought NZ would face SA in the final must either be banking on either side dropping a pool match or haven’t looked at the draw because if they win their pools as expected they could only meet in the semi-final.
March 12th 2011 @ 7:59am
Joseph N said | March 12th 2011 @ 7:59am | Report comment
You’re right Sam. It was a mistake on my part. The Kiwis I talked to definitely do not see either the ABs or the Boks losing a game in the pools, so it’s the Boks they fear in the semis, and the Wallabies they fear in the final. Not that they have all that much fear of either team, just a very healthy respect
March 12th 2011 @ 8:39am
Elliot Lodge said | March 12th 2011 @ 8:39am | Report comment
yea Itll take some real upsets for NZ to not meet the Boks in the semis. While Australia have a fairly easy run to the final, where they should meet England in the semi – not saying an Aus win is a foregone conclusion there. \
The competition for spots in the backline, aside from number 10, is immense. I like the idea of SBW linking up with Smith, meaning no room for the like of Nonu, Fruen, Toeava or McAlister, thats some serious depth.
With Dagg and Jane in brilliant form, Im liking the idea of three fullbacks in the back three. Their kicking, passing and tackling skills could be invaluable in a world cup.
At this stage, this is the backline in looking at, praying that DC can stay fit:
9. Cowan
10. Carter
11. Dagg
12. Williams
13. Smith
14. Jane
15. Muliaina
March 12th 2011 @ 11:27am
Franzenhans said | March 12th 2011 @ 11:27am | Report comment
Keep Dagg at 15 for my money. See him burst onto that ball in the 1st half against the Brumbies? Mils not athletic enough these days for that. Gear and Sivi on the wings with Jane to come on if Sivi’s dropping high kicks.
March 12th 2011 @ 11:50am
Puhinui said | March 12th 2011 @ 11:50am | Report comment
In the Brumby game when DC zipped down the line and got flattened by the winger I had the same reaction a lot of Kiwis mustve had closed my eyes and crosed my fingers that hed get up okay. Thats gonna happen every match he plays aussies and saffers wil be out to do him. Its a big worry.
March 12th 2011 @ 12:30pm
stillmissit said | March 12th 2011 @ 12:30pm | Report comment
Sure McCaw and Carter are irriplaceable but look at the depth of talent. There is daylight between other countries and NZ in terms of the production line. I am sure if Carter did get injured they could replace him with a lesser player (McAlister?) and still win easily. McCaw is easier to replace as there are several players who appear close to his level now.
From an Australian perspective NZ in any guise is a big ask. Odds are the French and the Aussies are the only ones who could stop them but they would need a very good day at the office. Other teams would need a miracle day or some very poor reffing.
March 12th 2011 @ 12:41pm
Wall-Nut said | March 12th 2011 @ 12:41pm | Report comment
I’d have Dagg at full back and Fruen in either 12 or 13 at this stage. For me Williams is not a walk on All Black.
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March 12th 2011 @ 1:53pm
Franzenhans said | March 12th 2011 @ 1:53pm | Report comment
Don’t agree stillmissit. I’ve always liked McAlister better at 12. Donald could be the 10 if Carter out. But a huge difference between the two. If Carter doesn’t play, the All Blacks could be in trouble. And forget the French. Their first 15 is unsettled and their bench no better and they don’t like their coach. Only two teams could upset the ABs – Boks or Wallabies.
March 14th 2011 @ 6:50am
stillmissit said | March 14th 2011 @ 6:50am | Report comment
Franzenhans – Not a great fan of Donalds, gutsy but doesn’t have the skill set for a good AB. The French seem to be slipping down a hole at the moment and the loss to Italy will send shock waves through the country. Don’t think the Boks can upset NZ at the moment as too many have hit their use by date including the coach.
In fact don’t think anyone can upset the AB’s at the moment too much talent.
March 12th 2011 @ 2:28pm
Moaman said | March 12th 2011 @ 2:28pm | Report comment
Poor old FrueAn….not only can’t get a black jersey…he has to get his name butchered in print too! The so-called “A” team mentioned above could contain some very fine players…already this far out Robbie Fruean and SBW look a handy package and will be keeping Conrad Smith and Ma’a Nonu honest-that’s for sure! Similarly the back 3 will pose us armchair(and the real ones)selectors all kinds of headaches with Mils,Dagg,Gear,Jane,Sivivatu,Masaga,Rococoko,Maitland et al pressing for spots. Personally I hope Donald’s name isn’t mentioned ever again in terms of the ABs.Finally,wish we could leave discussing the WC till later and enjoy the Super Rugby now………
March 13th 2011 @ 4:36pm
mjpt said | March 13th 2011 @ 4:36pm | Report comment
Good article. I agree there is a varied opinion in NZ. Personally I think the ABs are not going to make it. Depth is a killer in tournament football…it just allows the coach to hedge and not get real about decisions that have to be made. ABs have been terrible on this front as they try to control all the controllables but forget that luck has a factor to play -and it cannot be measured either, its intagible. Injuries to a Mccaw or Carter will be considered fatal as opposed to Mealamu, what if we get a bad ref?? Plenty to go down yet and I just think that our history and management of these factors IN WORLD CUP TOURNAMENT, has been DEPLORABLE, not just poor. NZ deal in hypotheticals too much because they don’t want to be held accountable for a position, and argue it therein. PC culture in full effect. As to the team-get weepu back in the mix ASAP- he is good for business against AUST and STH AF, he is combative and hard but he needs to keep playing. Du Preez gets minimalised when he plays. Ozzie have never won when he plays either (could be off here but the statistic line is in the 90%s I am sure) Nonu stays- SBW has not even played the Ozzie reps ot sth af yet- that was the big oppurtunity lost last year in Hong Kong (bad management IMO) He has not seen the Frech either as a unit. Dagg getting raps but he need s reps at intl level. If Mils Muliaina gets scewed around again at fullback I will shoot someone. Its the common theme in all our failures -switching the centre and fullback roles so you can put the best 15 on but not the best team. Mils got us there to WC yet time and again when things got tight;Leon Mcdonald was brought in.RIDICULOUS. Choose players on intl performance and the body of work. French are out bogey team-nonu and weepu were not at last world cup but they go great against the frogs because they do not like big physical polynesian players. Its about match ups people. not picking a first 15 and holding on for dear life and hoping injuries do not occur-has been and always will be a bad strategy in a tournament that lasts 4 weeks-6 if yr good ie final
March 13th 2011 @ 8:36pm
Scotty said | March 13th 2011 @ 8:36pm | Report comment
I watched the French yesterday mate – you have nothing to fear from them, or England. The French in past times at least could be inventive but this appears to have been leached away from thier team play and spirit over the last few years. So now if they can’t beast it up front they are stuffed.
BTW I think NZ will win the RWC in a canter this time around. Lessons have been learned, and while a catastrophic injury as per France 2007 cannot be ruled out, its unlikely that you will lose 3 players in quick sucession in a vital game.