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Despite being one of the most dominant rugby teams in the world, the All Blacks fail to deliver when it matters most. Winning the hosting rights to a Rugby World Cup tournament is a good first step in a nation’s quest for glory.
Playing in front of a home crowd, in any sport, gives the team a significant advantage, an edge over the opposition, which can help propel them to victory.
But few teams in the history of rugby’s most prestigious tournament have won the event on home soil, with just New Zealand and South Africa achieving the feat as hosts of the tournament in 1987 and 1995 respectively.
The question is whether the All Blacks can repeat their 1987 feat and secure the status of world champions once again at the 2011 World Cup.
The All Blacks will enter the tournament as red-hot favourites, but for the realists in the rugby world, history suggests New Zealand may again falter on the World Cup stage.
Let history be a guide.
The All Blacks have entered every World Cup ranked amongst the top three nations, but have only won the tournament once, defeating France in the final of the inaugural tournament.
They have made only one other World Cup final, in which they were defeated by South Africa. The All Blacks exited all other World Cup tournaments prematurely during either the quarter-final or semi-final stages, including in the semi-final against the Wallabies in 2003.
Perhaps their most shocking World Cup defeat came in 2007.
All Black great Sean Fitzpatrick said in the lead up to the 2007 World Cup, “They’ve done everything right, the boys are in great shape, their build-up has been low-key and they are there to bring the World Cup back home. No, mate, choking is not an issue.”
He came to regret his words as New Zealand crashed and burned against the French in a quarter-final.
The All Blacks often peak prematurely ahead of a World Cup.
With the Bledisloe Cup and Tri-Nations trophies safely in the All Blacks trophy cabinet in 2007, and having swept aside the British and Irish Lions in a 3-0 whitewash in 2005, their No. 1 ranking was well earned.
The All Blacks, though, failed to deliver.
The pattern is recurring. After a dominant start to the 2010 Tri-Nations tournament, the All Blacks finished poorly, highlighted by a loss to Australia in Hong Kong.
In winning, Australia has raised doubts in the minds of the All Blacks. Perhaps they have peaked too early once again. The grave expression on All Black captain Richie McCaw’s face said it all as he drew his side into a huddle immediately after the loss.
However, the All Blacks will take confidence from convincing victories at home in 2010 – wins in all three of their matches played at home during the Tri-Nations tournament and their clean sweep of victories in last year’s Steinlager Series played in New Zealand.
Former All Black Andrew Mehrtens thinks it is “New Zealand’s time” in 2011, but, just like Sean Fitzpatrick, he too may be made to eat his words if history repeats itself.
The writing is on the wall, New Zealand. Prove us wrong now or forever hold your peace.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.