GWS Giants a disaster waiting to happen for AFL?
Columnist By Ben Somerford, 5 May 2011 Ben Somerford is a Roar Expert
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- AFL, Giants, Gold Coast Suns, Greater Western Sydney, Sydney
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Gold Coast’s historic Round 5 victory over Port Adelaide may have silenced some of the cynics taking aim at the AFL’s bold expansion project, but last weekend was a stark reminder of the reality of the situation. While the Suns were thumped in record fashion by Essendon by 139 points, the GWS Giants proved uncompetitive in a 89-point hammering from VFL club Northern Bullants in the Foxtel Cup. Ouch!
You wonder how those results would have been received had Gold Coast not beaten Port the week before.
Firstly, though, I’d say the majority of footy fans supported the AFL’s move to expand the game into new markets but one of the big questions has been the way they’ve gone about expansion this time around.
Gold Coast and GWS’s heavy reliance on youngsters is very different to the way Fremantle, Adelaide and Port Adelaide came into the AFL in the nineties.
Of course, stockpiling the two new clubs with the best young talent in the country ensures they should be looking forward to a premiership window in four or five years time. But in the meantime can an uncompetitive AFL team survive in a foreign market dominated by support for rival codes.
It’s a big question but you know the AFL will ensure the finances are covered (particularly following last week’s new broadcast deal) to keep the clubs afloat.
But the actual question is will these clubs garner support from the targeted markets? After all, that’s the point of expansion – attracting news fans to the game.
Watching your local team get thumped by 20 goals isn’t exactly an appealing Saturday afternoon, particularly if you’re not terribly fond of AFL.
And witnessing Saturday’s mauling of the Giants by the Bullants I’d suggest Western Sydneysiders should expect more of the same next year. Saturday’s game was a disaster for GWS, as the Bullants kicked 12 goals to nil by half-time to kill the contest. It was painful viewing.
Of course, Kevin Sheedy and the Giants have time to work on it but they’ve clearly got a long way to go.
And I often wonder if there will be a negative stigma attached to these clubs in their first few years among the local community if they get thumped every week, or whether there will be a sense of patience from the locals looking forward to that premiership window.
Perhaps on the Gold Coast where there is a big ex-Victorian population they will see the bigger picture.
But in Western Sydney, where rugby league and soccer are the codes of choice, I’m certain an uncompetitive AFL team won’t captivate the market and perhaps that negative stigma will pervade the club’s identity for years to come, even if the team improves.
This fear has prompted calls from many people to suggest GWS shouldn’t follow the Suns’ example of focusing on youth and rather stock up on mature-age recruits to ensure they will be competitive.
But, of course, there’s no guarantees that’s the recipe to being competitive and I’d argue it’s definitely not the recipe to a premiership window in four or five years time, despite the success of a sprinkling of mature-age players in the AFL in the past year or two.
So are people suggesting that’s the compromise which needs to taken in the Western Sydney market which may not be as forgiving as the Gold Coast. Immediate competitiveness over a premiership window in the near future?
It’s an interesting question.
But then again, you need to remind yourself that the Gold Coast example is five games old. Who knows where the Suns will be by the end of the season?
And fortunately for the Giants they don’t need to make any recruiting decisions until just then, the end of the season.
They’ve got two things going for them: the benefit of witnessing the Suns example and time. But given Saturday’s performance – for the sake of the club – let’s hope they follow the right path.
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May 5th 2011 @ 4:51am
Fake ex-AFL fan said | May 5th 2011 @ 4:51am | Report comment
There’s no doubt that the Giants will cop their share of thrashings next year, but it needs to be kept in mind that the current team is essentially a youth development squad – it contains zero senior players. They’re playing against VFL teams that contain in many cases players with substantial AFL experience.
Having said that Ben does make some valid points. A team getting absolutely caned every week isn’t exactly a fantastic vehicle for promotion so I think it makes expectation management vital for the new club. No point claiming that the team are going to play finals in the first couple of season, emphasise the young talent on display and stress the need for patience! It’ll make the eventual success when it does come that much sweeter.
May 5th 2011 @ 6:51am
p.Tah said | May 5th 2011 @ 6:51am | Report comment
Putting aside whether GWS or the Suns are an eventual success, what do these thrashing do to the individual players? These are the brightest young talents in the land, does this affect their psyche or will it make them stronger? I tend to think the former. How will they attract the senior players they need if everyone is writing them off and telling them of the darkness before the sunrise.
May 5th 2011 @ 10:15am
JamesP said | May 5th 2011 @ 10:15am | Report comment
P.Tah, Gold Coast got thrashed 3 weeks in a row and looked like copping it from Port before they found something.
They will bounce back, but they need good leadership from the coaches and senior players.
May 5th 2011 @ 11:48am
p.Tah said | May 5th 2011 @ 11:48am | Report comment
I hope so. I enjoyed the Port game.
May 5th 2011 @ 1:17pm
zach said | May 5th 2011 @ 1:17pm | Report comment
On a weekend that included the Anzac day match and Hawthorn/ Geelong, the Gold Coast game was on of the most entertaining. Games like are what will get people in.
May 5th 2011 @ 7:54am
mds1970 said | May 5th 2011 @ 7:54am | Report comment
In the 1990s the Swans had a pathetic rabble of a team and were a laughing stock as they fumbled their way to 3 wooden spoons in a row. But 2 years later that was forgotten as they made their amazing run to the Grand Final; and massive numbers of Sydneysiders jumped on the bandwagon.
It was tough for the Swans, but they had a plan for a window of success, worked hard for the long term, and their rewards came on and off the field.
GWS can work, but the club and the AFL know it’s about being there for the long haul – there won’t be instant success, it will take perseverance, patience, money and time.
May 5th 2011 @ 9:13am
Chris said | May 5th 2011 @ 9:13am | Report comment
That’s a bit different – the Swans (like all the traditional teams) had a lot of fans who came out of the woodwork once the wins started coming. Neither the Suns or Giants will have that. And while the Swans weren’t much chop back in those days they were a hell of a lot better than the Suns and Giants are right now. Not an accurate comparison…
May 5th 2011 @ 9:35am
me, I like football said | May 5th 2011 @ 9:35am | Report comment
They weren’t that much better
May 5th 2011 @ 1:26pm
Simmo said | May 5th 2011 @ 1:26pm | Report comment
Also the swans had two massive advantages that GWS won’t have:
1. 15 years of presence to build at least partial interest, if not identification with the underdogs (‘brand awareness’ in modern football marketing language) and then
2. the Super League war freeing up large numbers of Sydneysiders disenchanted with RL (window now shut).
That’s how the Swans went from a small but loyal fanbase of around 5k (when they were easy-beats) up to the team that could fill the SCG.
Will circumstances favour GWS so?
May 5th 2011 @ 2:02pm
mick h said | May 5th 2011 @ 2:02pm | Report comment
i agree simo rl at the moment is averaging more in sydney17469 outside 17080.not huge figures but the game in the next few years with the cc bears coming back with more local derbies against eg manly parra will boost crowds
what if the swans and gws finish in the bottom half of the ladder for the next 5 seasons?
sydney people are fickle they like winning teams eg penrith nrl last won comp 2003 average crowd 18,000 + now 10,000
May 6th 2011 @ 12:38pm
RedtoBrownSport said | May 6th 2011 @ 12:38pm | Report comment
THe great run into the finals by the Swans in 1996 was at a time when Rugby League was at its absolute lowest ebb due to Super League and many fans were (temporarily) turning away. Look at the crowd/membership figures following the Swans’ last Grand Final win – they have steadily declined despite the team remaining competitive. With the Swans weakend and the GWS getting smashed, the Sydney AFL supporter base will diminish and be fractured.
Also, the AFL should know by now that there is no such thing as a Western Sydney consciousness – clubs purporting to be from ‘western Sydney’ always fail to develop a tribal identity – the West is too diverse and different. You only need look at the Western Sydney Razorbacks as evidence. THe AFL would have been better to go down the A-League Melbourne route by creating a second team that has no specific geographical HQ, but still focussed on the West.
May 5th 2011 @ 7:55am
Rabbitz said | May 5th 2011 @ 7:55am | Report comment
Another issue that GWS are going to face is access to “their” home ground.
The GWS and the AFL have come to an agreement with the NSW RAS to upgrade the RAS Showground at Homebush. Excellent! New seating and stands better facilities – Yah!
The problem is that the Sydney Royal Easter Show is on during the AFL season. So for two weeks before the show, two weeks of the show and two weeks after the show the ground is unavailable. A minimum of six round without their home ground.
To make matters worse, if the weather is like it was during this years show (and lets face it it ALWAYS rain during the show) the surface of the showground becomes a deadset quagmire, without a single blade of viable grass on it. How long will it take for the relaid surface to take and be playble? Another month? Maybe two? So what happens for 10 rounds without a homeground?
How are the GWS going to build their own “fortress” if they are virtually a nomadic tribe for a great slab of the season?
May 5th 2011 @ 8:08am
The Cattery said | May 5th 2011 @ 8:08am | Report comment
If it’s a late Easter like this year, it will be a small problem, as you have suggested.
On average, Easter is very early in the season.
Who knows, all that manure naturally applied to the turf might end up being a natural advantage to the Giants.
May 5th 2011 @ 8:41am
PaddyBoy said | May 5th 2011 @ 8:41am | Report comment
Haha, they train in the poo, get used to it, and then rub unsuspecting opponents noses in it. Brilliant.
May 5th 2011 @ 12:57pm
Rabbitz said | May 5th 2011 @ 12:57pm | Report comment
Well next year the show starts on April 5, so block out at least March 22 to May 3. Seems like a long time to me. Especially if they can’t then get the surface back to being safe.
I do hope that plans are in place but it seems to be a looming issue (well to me at least)
May 5th 2011 @ 10:55am
TCunbeliever said | May 5th 2011 @ 10:55am | Report comment
I really don’t see that the use of the Showgrounds for the Easter Show is going to be an issue whatsoever.
The Greater Western Giants can just play home games at ANZ stadium against large-drawing clubs for the duration of the show.. It’s a complete non-issue.
May 5th 2011 @ 12:18pm
mick h said | May 5th 2011 @ 12:18pm | Report comment
they will play them in canberra
May 6th 2011 @ 8:56am
TCunbeliever said | May 6th 2011 @ 8:56am | Report comment
Yes, Manuka Oval is another home ground that the Giants have, so conceivably they’ll split them between ANZ and Manuka..
May 5th 2011 @ 8:39am
Aware said | May 5th 2011 @ 8:39am | Report comment
The AFL live in a dream-world. Even Sydney Swans struggle to get ruckmen from the local area, so have to import them. They will have to “out-source” to GWS Wombats every position on the ground and spend multi-millions, but the team will never have credibility as a representative of that area.
May 5th 2011 @ 8:43am
The Cattery said | May 5th 2011 @ 8:43am | Report comment
Some players do come through the system from NSW on an annual basis, and that will increase with the effort the AFL is putting into the NSW academies.
Dylan Addison, recruited from Sydney, is on the radar for GWS as one of their out of contract targets, and there are others born in NSW.
May 5th 2011 @ 8:51am
Sherrin-Burley-Faulkner said | May 5th 2011 @ 8:51am | Report comment
Last year a record 18 NSW/ACT players were listed by AFL clubs.
http://www.aflnswact.com.au/index.php?id=5&tx_ttnewspointer=1&tx_ttnewstt_news=503&tx_ttnewsbackPid=4&cHash=31a8a34c96
I would expect that to rise again this year and next, particuarly with both GWS and Sydney Swans acadamies in full operation.
I might also add that in some years, there has only been 1,2 or 3 players drafted from NSW/ACT, so the jump to 18 is very big, and the forming of GWS will/has certainly increase the number.
May 5th 2011 @ 9:06am
Sherrin-Burley-Faulkner said | May 5th 2011 @ 9:06am | Report comment
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/home-grown-swan-is-ready-to-fly-20110504-1e8ex.html
Kellyville boy !!.
May 5th 2011 @ 9:50am
Redb said | May 5th 2011 @ 9:50am | Report comment
“but the team will never have credibility as a representative of that area”
Not sure this is a fair criteria for any expansion team. What about the Melb Storm,, Melb Rebels? How many Victorians in their teams?
The AFL is a lot further down tthe track of geting locals into their teams than either the NRL or Super rugby.
May 5th 2011 @ 12:14pm
Sam el Perro said | May 5th 2011 @ 12:14pm | Report comment
If it isn’t a fair criterion (as you stated in your first paragraph) why did you use it to judge two other sports (in your second paragraph)?
May 5th 2011 @ 1:04pm
Redb said | May 5th 2011 @ 1:04pm | Report comment
I didnt, just highlighted the blatant hypocrisy.
May 5th 2011 @ 12:30pm
mick h said | May 5th 2011 @ 12:30pm | Report comment
do some research on how many local victorians are part of the storms u20 and u 18 teams with a view to fielding a side in harold mathews u 16 next year. all sports have development academies and the afl like rl ru and soccer will continue to provide players to each code. the melbourne storm are a team with far more success than what they are given credit for.
on gws they i believe will struggle more than the suns. you can have all the best young players in the world but you need experience as well.
May 5th 2011 @ 1:05pm
Redb said | May 5th 2011 @ 1:05pm | Report comment
On the subject, how many born and bred Melbournians have played for the Melbourne Storm in the NRL over the past 12 years?
May 5th 2011 @ 1:28pm
Simmo said | May 5th 2011 @ 1:28pm | Report comment
It simply doesn’t matter if there are locals in the team. The higher up the football foodchain you look, the less likely it is to find local lads in the 1st team.
May 5th 2011 @ 1:41pm
Redb said | May 5th 2011 @ 1:41pm | Report comment
Thanks simmo, GWS should not be treated any different to any other expansion team.
I’m sure their goal will be to recruit locally but this does not happen overnight.
May 5th 2011 @ 9:04am
The recalcitrant said | May 5th 2011 @ 9:04am | Report comment
We will see in 25 to 30 years from now how big a ‘disaster’ it will be.
May 5th 2011 @ 9:21am
AGO74 said | May 5th 2011 @ 9:21am | Report comment
Ben – I disagree with your last point about “the benefit of witnessing the Suns example” being something going for GWS. The general consensus (from what I understand) is the Suns will lie somewhere between whipping boys and mediocrity for 3 years before maybe becoming contenders in the 4th/5th years. Initial reports on GWS are even less flattering. Given tthe reality of the poundings that GC have and will continue to receive, won’t it be even harder for GWS to attract established AFL players from their existing clubs? – let alone an AFL legend such as Gary Ablett like GC were able to do?
May 5th 2011 @ 1:44pm
Ben Somerford said | May 5th 2011 @ 1:44pm | Report comment
AGO74,
I think that factor in players’ decisions is over-exaggerated. Players were always aware these teams would struggle for wins in their first few seasons. The money is surely the key factor in the decision, along with a new challenge or change of lifestyle.
May 5th 2011 @ 9:30am
TomC said | May 5th 2011 @ 9:30am | Report comment
The fact that the Giants get the chance to observe the Suns’ first season is a huge advantage.
It was always strange that the GC only chose to take seven players from other teams (plus trading for Brennan). Even if they just picked up half a dozen more who may otherwise have been delisted they would have had significantly more options this season.
I suspect GWS will be looking to recycle more players from other clubs. Particularly as this has been a favourite Sheedy tactic in the past.
May 5th 2011 @ 9:37am
Mark Young said | May 5th 2011 @ 9:37am | Report comment
Hmm, Concern being expressed about whether the new Sydney Team could actually be really bad for the AFL.
In other breaking news there is a scandal brewing about St Kilda players and a jilted woman.
Also Todd Carney may have some concerns about his drinking.
May 5th 2011 @ 9:42am
me, I like football said | May 5th 2011 @ 9:42am | Report comment
Maybe the Giants wont work, but it’s worth a punt for the cashed up AFL. If in 20 years time we see no signs of aussie rules gaining a foothole, at least we wont be asking “What if…?”
May 5th 2011 @ 2:26pm
PaddyBoy said | May 5th 2011 @ 2:26pm | Report comment
Big money though for a “what if”. Pump the 100 mill (if the figure is true, I’d suspect higher) into growing the game overseas in countries with tall strong men and you’d get some fine players, plus an international team to play against.
May 5th 2011 @ 9:58am
Redb said | May 5th 2011 @ 9:58am | Report comment
There is no doubt both the AFL and GWS will be looking at the Suns and assessing the formula used by them.
I think the Suns have got the ratio wrong between senior players and kids, there are simply too few senior players. Most AFL teams blood 1-2 kids a year and even those take a few years to come into their prime and then with good support from a team chock full of senior players.
2012 heralds the start of limited free agency (8 yrs plus exp), this puts GWS in a better position to get some twilight players to add to the uncontracted players they can attract.
The Suns have gone with 8 senior players out of say squad of 25 who will get regular games,. GWS need to lift that to 12-15 players in their first year and blood the kids as they the senor players retire in time.
I wouldnt panic just yet, its not a death blow to be at the bottom of the ladder, success can quickly turns things around and in some ways builds a narrative for the team. If the Suns had come out of the blocks smashing everyone the only way is down.
Football is about the journey. The Suns win against Port was all the more celebrated due to its early thrashings as a young team.
I would expect the Suns to be a lot more competitive against the Lions this Saturday night. No doubt McKenna has been calling for mouthguards this week during Suns training.
May 5th 2011 @ 11:53am
GrantS said | May 5th 2011 @ 11:53am | Report comment
“I think the Suns have got the ratio wrong between senior players and kids, there are simply too few senior players.”
I agree but probably not for the same reasons!
The AFL have allowed the Suns (and GWS) the pick of the cream of the youngsters in their bid to build a competitive team but I don’t think this is the correct way to go.
First of all, as pointed out by others, these young players are going to cop terrible hidings and this could, quite possibly, affect their future playing careers.
Secondly, how are they going to hold on to all of these young players when their contracts expire? The clubs will have done the hard work of introducing them to the top level of football and will reap no reward if they leave. (And you can bet, after being belted a lot of them will be looking to go to competitive clubs.)
Finally the other clubs will be sitting back smiling (cheque books in hand) waiting to buy “experienced” players who will fit into their teams.
I feel the way the Lions, Swans, Freo etc were introduced to the AFL is probably a better way to go.
May 5th 2011 @ 1:31pm
Simmo said | May 5th 2011 @ 1:31pm | Report comment
I don’t follow the AFL closely, but has playing lots of good draft picks helped other teams that have bottomed out? Why hasn’t Richmond managed to get to the top of the table after all these years?
May 5th 2011 @ 1:48pm
Redb said | May 5th 2011 @ 1:48pm | Report comment
Top draft picks are not everything, you need a lot of things to go right to be successful. Out of 18 players, 2-3 top draft picks does not make all the difference, it’s the bottom rated 6 that win you a premiership.
However, GC & GWS are getting a dozen top draft picks to build the club around.
May 5th 2011 @ 9:47pm
Walt said | May 5th 2011 @ 9:47pm | Report comment
Huh? The Swans played finals only twice in 14 years after moving to Sydney and were a basket-case. Brisbane 3 times in their first 12 and Fremantle only twice in their first 15 seasons. All 3 clubs have had disastrous losing streaks, years of poor crowds and dozens of joke books written about them. If you were looking into “How not to start a professional football club” – you would go straight to these clubs.