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The Queensland Reds are on schedule to win the 2011 Super Rugby competition. With 47 games still to play, the finals participants will be determined by just nine critical games.
Effectively, these games between finals aspirants are worth eight points. One team fails to get four points and the winning team receives four points.
Interested in Rugby 2011?
The critical games and my prediction of the outcome of each are:
1. Round 12: Stormers V Crusaders (Winner: Stormers; Bonus points: Crusaders: 1).
2. Round 13: Reds V Blues. (Winner: Reds; Bonus points: Blues: 1).
3. Round 14: Blues V Stormers. (Winner: Blues; Bonus points: Stormers: 1).
4. Round 15: Sharks V Waratahs. (Winner: Sharks; Bonus points: Waratahs: 1).
5. Round 15: Reds V Crusaders. (Winner: Reds; Bonus points: Crusaders: 1).
6. Round 17: Crusaders V Blues. (Winner: Crusaders; Bonus points: Blues: 1).
7. Round 17: Waratahs V Highlanders. (Winner: Waratahs; Bonus points: Highlanders: 1).
8. Round 18: Blues V Highlanders. (Winner: Blues; Bonus points: Highlanders: 1).
9. Round 18: Bulls V Sharks. (Winner: Sharks; Bonus points: Bulls: 1).
And the first of these games, and one of the most influential, is being played this weekend. It is between the Stormers and Crusaders. It is an excellent example of the closeness and sensitivity of the final table to individual results.
If my predicted result is incorrect and the Crusaders win, the Crusaders will join Blues on 65 points. The for and against difference favours the Crusaders (151 to 67) and will provide them with a likely grand final appearance against the Reds in Brisbane. The Sharks will replace the Stormers in the top three.
The resultant competition table from this projection is:
1. Reds – 68
2. Blues – 65
3. Stormers – 64
4. Crusaders – 62
5. Sharks – 62
6. H’Landers – 57
7. Waratahs – 53
8. Bulls – 45
9. Hurricanes – 38
10. Chiefs – 35
11. Force – 34
12. Brumbies – 32
13. Cheetahs – 30
14. Rebels – 25
15. Lions – 23
If the finals games go to form, and the home teams win, the Queensland Reds will win the 2011 Super Rugby competition.
Week 1: Stormers V Highlanders: (Winner Stormers);
Week 1: Crusaders V Sharks: (Winner Crusaders);
Week 2: Reds V Crusaders: (Winner Reds);
Week 2: Blues V Stormers: (Winner Blues);
Week 3: Reds V Blues: (Winner Reds).
In the rugby World Cup year, the story does not end there. The Queensland Reds, as 2011 Super Rugby winners, will then provide the bulk of the Wallabies squad, and more importantly, the winning culture.
This self belief is the critical ingredient that is required to win the big games in the Tri Nations, Bledisloe Cup and finally the World Cup.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.