Preview of AFL round seven matches

Preview of AFL round seven matches (all times AEST).

FRIDAY, May 6
PORT ADELAIDE v HAWTHORN, AAMI Stadium, 8.40pm
Head to head: Port Adelaide 15, Hawthorn 7, Drawn 0
Last time: Port Adelaide 13.14 (92) bt Hawthorn 12.12 (84) R18 2010 AAMI Stadium
TAB Sportsbet: Port Adelaide $4.25, Hawthorn $1.20
Sportingbet: Port Adelaide $4.75, Hawthorn $1.19

Port Adelaide have been copping it from all sides in 2011. And – the emotion-charged showdown win over the Crows aside – they’ve deserved all the criticism. A rare outing on prime-time TV would be the ideal time to belatedly make a stand. Danyle Pearce returns after doing his penance in the seconds, while veteran Chad Cornes has been dropped again. The Hawks hand debuts to twenty-somethings Isaac Smith and Paul Puopolo, but Cyril Rioli is out with a hamstring strain.

Key: The best thing to happen to the Power this week was learning that the Adelaide Oval refit had received the green light. But that’s unlikely to lift the playing group to an upset win.

Tip: Hawthorn by 30 points.

SATURDAY, May 7
WESTERN BULLDOGS v SYDNEY, Manuka Oval, 1.10pm
Head to head: Western Bulldogs 77, Sydney 70, Drawn 1
Last time: Western Bulldogs 11.11 (77) bt Sydney 10.12 (72) first semi-final 2010, MCG
TAB Sportsbet: Western Bulldogs $1.65, Sydney $2.15
Sportingbet: Western Bulldogs $1.75, Sydney $2.10

The Dogs were competitive against top four sides Fremantle and Collingwood in their past two matches, but lost to both, the Magpies embarrassing them with eight consecutive last-term goals. Coming off a second straight six-day break, still missing Barry Hall and Shaun Higgins to injury and with Brian Lake dropped to the VFL, they face a major challenge against the Swans. Sydney also need to rebound after a controversial, tight loss to Carlton, but that task will be made harder with the injury absence of courageous midfielder Kieren Jack.

Key: Sydney star Adam Goodes could trouble a Bulldogs defence that has shown some vulnerability.

Tip: Sydney by 15 points.

GEELONG v NORTH MELBOURNE, Skilled Stadium, 2.10pm
Head to head: Geelong 91, North Melbourne 58, Drawn 1
Last time: Geelong 14.14 (98) bt North Melbourne 9.9 (63) R14 2010 Skilled Stadium
TAB Sportsbet: Geelong $1.06, North Melbourne $8.00
Sportingbet: Geelong $1.08, North Melbourne $8.25

The Kangaroos posted their first win of the season against an inept Port Adelaide last round, but face a big jump in standard against the Cats. Geelong are unbeaten this season and hold a daunting 24-match winning streak at Skilled Stadium. Perhaps coming off the bye will take a small edge off their game, but they were in superb form beforehand. They showed enormous character and talent to see off Hawthorn in their last start, with experienced stars Matthew Scarlett, Paul Chapman and Jimmy Bartel outstanding. North’s young midfielders face a tough day.

Key: The Scott twins, North Melbourne coach Brad and Geelong counterpart Chris, go head-to-head for the first time, but the talent at Chris’ disposal will count for more than any tactical battle.

Tip: Geelong by 38 points.

RICHMOND v FREMANTLE, MCG, 4.10pm
Head to head: Richmond 14, Fremantle 10, Drawn 0
Last time: Richmond 15.10 (100) bt Fremantle 11.15 (81) R15 2010 Etihad Stadium
TAB Sportsbet: Richmond $2.25, Fremantle $1.60
Sportingbet: Richmond $2.28, Fremantle $1.65

It would have been hard to believe as little as three weeks ago, but this fixture probably deserves match of the round status. Young Tigers Dustin Martin, Jack Riewoldt and Trent Cotchin are winning rave reviews, while Jake King and Robin Nahas are the latest in a long line of Richmond cult heroes. But the Dockers of 2011 are formidable opponents, having lost only one game this year. And in Luke McPharlin they have a readymade opponent for Riewoldt.

Key: The venue. The Dockers rarely get the chance to strut their stuff at the MCG, while the Tiger Army will be be out in force on the back of two successive wins.

Tip: Richmond by eight points.

GOLD COAST v BRISBANE LIONS, Gabba, 7.10pm
Head to head: First meeting
Last time: First meeting
TAB Sportsbet: Gold Coast $7.00, Brisbane $1.08
Sportingbet: Gold Coast $8.75, Brisbane $1.07

The usually taciturn Simon Black lit the fuse under the inaugural Q-Clash on Monday, claiming the Suns had been gifted a dream run into the AFL and labelling former Lions Michael Rischitelli and Jared Brennan mercenaries. That was never going to go down well. The Lions desperately need a win, yet to salute this season, despite running St Kilda and Richmond close in the past fortnight.

Key: Experience. Both clubs – and especially Gold Coast – have plenty of good youngsters. But the Lions boast a better spread of old heads.

Tip: Brisbane by 30 points.

SUNDAY, MAY 8
ESSENDON v WEST COAST, Etihad Stadium, 1.10pm
Head to head: Essendon 23, West Coast 19, Drawn 0
Last time: West Coast 20.12 (132) bt Essendon 14.16 (100) R16 2010 Etihad Stadium
TAB Sportsbet: Essendon $1.18, West Coast $4.50
Sportingbet: Essendon $1.18, West Coast $4.85

Essendon had an easy day last round, when they outscored Gold Coast by a record 93 points in the first quarter. It was impressive from the Bombers, but the coast to victory that followed is not ideal preparation to face an Eagles side vastly improved on last year’s wooden spooners. West Coast’s defensive intensity in last round’s thrashing of Melbourne was very encouraging. Star forward Mark LeCras looked a little rusty, back from a four-game injury lay-off, but should have tuned up nicely for his first match against the Bombers since booting 12 goals against them last year.

Key: The ruck battles should be engaging, with Essendon’s three-man ruck brigade and West Coast’s duo of Dean Cox and Nic Naitanui both offering versatility and talent.

Tip: Essendon by 10 points.

MELBOURNE v ADELAIDE, MCG, 2.10pm
Head to head: Melbourne 10, Adelaide 19, Drawn 0
Last time: Adelaide 16.21 (117) bt Melbourne 11.7 (73) R13 2010 AAMI Stadium
TAB Sportsbet: Melbourne $1.70, Adelaide $2.05
Sportingbet: Melbourne $1.77, Adelaide $2.05

Even if Melbourne lose, they desperately need to at least put up a fight. Their performance in last round’s nine-goal loss to West Coast was dreadful, sparking queries over coach Dean Bailey’s future. A repeat would put Bailey under enormous pressure. The Demons need more from the likes of captain Brad Green and experienced midfielder Brent Moloney. The pressure on the Crows eased when they edged past St Kilda last round, but a loss to Melbourne would be a significant setback for a side that has so far failed to meet lofty pre-season expectations.

Key: Melbourne key forward Jack Watts has shown few signs he can justify his selection at No.1 in the 2008 national draft. This would be a great time for him to stand up.

Tip: Adelaide by 18 points.

MONDAY, May 9
ST KILDA v CARLTON, Etihad Stadium, 7.20pm
Head to head: St Kilda 47, Carlton 157, Drawn 2
Last meeting: Carlton 20.9 (129) bt St Kilda 9.14 (68) R7 2010 Etihad Stadium
TAB Sportsbet: St Kilda $2.65, Carlton $1.45
Sportingbet: St Kilda $2.80, Carlton $1.44

If their form struggles were not enough, the resurfacing of the off-field scandal involving suspended player agent Ricky Nixon gave the Saints an extra worry this week. Carlton broke a 12-game losing streak against St Kilda when they belted them by 61 points in round seven last year, when pacy small forwards Eddie Betts and Jeff Garlett kicked nine goals between them. Given this year’s Blues look mentally tougher, while several seasons of on- and off-field pressures appear to have finally weakened the Saints’ resolve, a similar result on Monday night would not be a major surprise.

Key: The Blues’ pace in attack is again likely to be a problem for a slow Saints defence, while captain Chris Judd’s ball-winning ability and inspirational effect will show what St Kilda are missing in Lenny Hayes’ season-long absence.

Tip: Carlton by 32 points.

BYE: COLLINGWOOD

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