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Stats reveal much about Super Rugby prospects

12th May, 2011
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12th May, 2011
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The Waratah's Lachie Turner is tackled by the Rebel's Greg Somerville during their Super Rugby match at the SFS, Sydney, April 30, 2011. (AAP Image/Dean Lewins)

Rugby World Cup winning coach Rod Macqueen has always been renowned for sending out tough-to-crack defensive sides. It was the same before he coached the Wallabies: with Warringah, NSW, and the Brumbies. Until now.

No wonder “Macca” is tearing his hair out. His Melbourne Rebels have rebelled against tackling. They are like traffic cops at an intersection, waving the opposition through to the try-line.

Chief offender has been England import Danny Cipriani, leading the entire Super 15 missed tackle count with 38, aided and abetted by Julian Huxley (32), Cooper Vuna (31),and Nick Phipps (30).

That begs the question: where is the pride in the new franchise?

The lack of defence isn’t Macqueen’s fault. Far from it. He’s not missing the tackles; the players are entirely to blame.

After 11 games, the Rebels have coughed up 50 tries, by far the worst record of the 15 Super Rugby sides.

The second worst offenders are the Lions and Cheetahs, with 34, followed by the Force and Hurricanes on 31. But all four are way out of the Rebel league.

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To magnify the problem, the Rebels have only scored 22 tries for a deficit of 28. The Force are next in line, with a deficit of 17: 14 to 31.

These stats are of genuine concern to Wallaby coach Robbie Deans. Defence lapses at Super Rugby level translate to the Men in Gold. It’s habit-forming.

There are other telling stats to deepen the frown to the Deans brow.

The Brumbies have a 90 point overall scoring deficit (217 points for, 307 against), the Force 84 (223-307), and the Rebels a whopping 177 deficit, again the worst with 206 for and 383 against.

That leaves the Brumbies, Force, and Rebels, in 12th, 13th, and 14th place on the ladder, heading into the business end of the tournament, with only the Lions behind them.

Although the Brumbies have a game in hand.

But it’s not all doom and gloom. There are pleasing stats:

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* The Force’s James O’Connor leads the overall Super 15 point-scorers with 156, with three more Australians in the top seven – Quade Cooper second with 144, Matt Giteau fourth with 122, and Kurtley Beale seventh on 110.

* O’Connor also leads the successful penalty goal shooters with 43, Cooper’s third with 28, Giteau fifth with 26, and Beale eighth on 21.

* And the Reds, and Waratahs, are well to the fore. The Reds enjoy a plus 110 points difference, bettered only by the Crusaders 157, while the Waratahs are plus 80, in fourth.

The most staggering stats belong to the Stormers and the Cheetahs.

The Stormers have only scored 17 tries and let in just eight in 10 games, but are the leading franchise in the South African Conference, and third on the overall table, with 43 points.

While the Cheetahs have posted the most bonus points, with nine, even though they have lost eight of their 11 games.

Those stats make interesting reading, but there’s a lot more in store.

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Let’s buckle up for tonight’s top of the table clash between the front-running Auckland Blues and the second-placed Queensland Reds at Suncorp.

This promises to be a cracker. There’s not a struck match between them, demanding a crowd in excess of 40,000 at the best rugby venue in the nation.

The Blues will look to their indestructible warrior-hooker-captain Keven Mealamu, All Blacks’ locks Ali Williams and Anthony Boric, in-form centre Luke McAlister, and the two wing flyers, Joe Rococoko and Rene Ranger.

The Reds’ key to success lie with locks James Horwill (captain) and Rob Simmons, flanker Beau Robinson, halves Will Genia and Quade Cooper, and centre Digby Ioane.

No doubt the superstitious fans of both franchises will blame the combination of the 13th week of the tournament, and Friday the 13th, for a loss.

Reds to win by 13?

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