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Four things we learned from round 14 of the AFL

26th June, 2011
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Roar Guru
26th June, 2011
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West Coast Eagles v Carlton AFL match

With round 14 popping up more than a few surprises, there were a number of key points that became evident from the big upset (West Coast), the almost big-upset (Collingwood), and those woeful Bombers.

West Coast will make the top four
The stunning turnaround in form of the West Coast Eagles has been the story of the 2011 season.

From wooden spooner last year, the Eagles are all but assured of finishing in the top four this season.

Yesterday’s win over the highly fancied Blues in Melbourne showed that the Eagles can beat a very good opponent away from home, and the confidence of the Eagles playing group will be sky-high following their impressive win.

The Eagles play only one side in the top six teams prior to the finals, and this soft run will ensure the Eagles go from cellar dweller to top four team in the space of twelve months, an amazing turnaround.

Geelong should be premiership favourites
Collingwood may still be the official favourite with the betting agencies, but based on their respective performances in round 14, Geelong are the side most likely to win the 2011 AFL premiership.

The Cats completely outclassed a disappointing Adelaide side on Sunday, and have not missed a beat this season despite losing Brownlow medallist Gary Ablett and dual premiership coach Mark Thompson at the end of last season.

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In contrast to the Cats, the Magpies were patchy in their win over the Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium on Saturday night. At times this year the Magpies have appeared to flirt with their form, and this will be of concern to coach Mick Malthouse.

The Magpies have shown that they can blow a side off the park, as demonstrated by their eleven goal final quarter against the Crows earlier this year, but there have also been periods during matches when the Magpies have taken the foot of the pedal and allowed teams to outscore and outplay them.

On the other hand, Geelong has put in more even performances over the course of this year and deserves to be premiership favourite.

We are all too quick to judge young players
Melbourne’s Jack Watts was heavily criticised in his first two seasons in the AFL, and the burden of being the number one pick in the 2008 AFL Draft must have weighed heavily on his young shoulders.

There were plenty of observers who felt that the number two selection, Nic Naitanui, was the far superior player based on their first two seasons in the AFL, and no doubt the incessant criticism and comparisons were difficult for Watts to come to terms with.

This year Watts has started to find his feet at AFL level, and his performance against Richmond on Saturday further demonstrated why he was a worthy first selection in the draft.

Watts kicked three goals for the Demons and had more contested marks than any other player on the ground, and with time will continue to blossom into a very good player.

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Hopefully the next time a young key position player takes a few seasons to develop we are more patient in recognising that not all players develop at the same rate.

Essendon will finish well outside the top eight
The Bombers were woeful in losing to a severely undermanned Hawthorn side on Friday night, and have now lost five matches in a row.

Favourite son James Hird must now find a way to rally his deflated playing group and keep the faith of a supporter base which was buoyed by a grand final appearance in the NAB Cup and early wins to start the season.

Essendon have a very difficult run home, and I predict that the Bombers will win only two more matches this season (against the Bulldogs in round 21 and Port Adelaide in round 23).

If my prediction proves correct, the Bombers will finish with just seven wins for the season, which will match their performance last season under ex-coach Matthew Knights.

Follow Michael on Twitter @michaelfilosi

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