Chris Judd of Carlton and his partner Rebecca Twigley pose after winning the Brlduring the 2010 AFL Brownlow Medal presentation at the Crown Palladium, Melbourne. Slattery Images
If you backed Chris Judd to win this year’s Brownlow medal with sportsbet.com.au, you have no doubt collected your winnings. For what it’s worth, congratulations.
Sportsbet, one of Australia’s leading online bookmakers, decided this week that Juddy is such a certainty to win his third medal, that continuing to run a Brownlow market would be a complete waste of time, choosing to pay out the estimated $300,000 and be done with it.
There’s no doubt Judd has had a magnificent season. Despite his many knockers – for reasons completely unknown and unjustified – he has once again been the standout player in the competition. But paying out on his Brownlow win with a month of footy to play is simply ridiculous.
As a keen observer of Chris Judd, I actually think he will win this year’s medal and probably by a long way but I don’t think I’m alone in thinking sportsbet have gone too early.
Judd could still rack up another 12 or so votes this year and win it by a street but he may also have one of his rare brain fades like when he belted Mathew Pavlich and find himself reported and suspended.
Worse still, particularly for Blues fans, he could tear a hammy or break a leg this week and allow players like Scott Pendlebury, Marc Murphy or Gary Ablett to overtake him.
However, unlikely that may be, does Sportsbet ask for the money back when Juddy doesn’t win it? Of course not.
As far as the bookie is concerned, the result is a certainty. So certain in fact, they would rather part with $300K than risk a higher payout later.
“We’re certain we’d be paying out on Juddy on Brownlow night as it is so punters might as well enjoy their cash early. They have had their money tied up for a long time so this is a service to them,” sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane said.
“In our opinion he’s having a far more dominant season than last year when he missed the first three games and still picked up 30 votes, so good luck to anyone trying to get near him in 2011.”
It is widely recognised that the umpires view of the game totally differs from all others. So many times over the years players that have been the most influential on the ground and obtained 35 or more touches, have failed to receive votes.
With that in mind, isn’t it fair to say that although we may see Juddy as best on ground most weeks, that the umpires perhaps don’t?
We only need look at last year when Collingwood’s Dane Swan was seen as a runaway winner before a vote had been counted. Swan won almost every media award in 2010 including the coveted MVP as voted by his peers.
He was almost unbackable for the Brownlow and one couldn’t help but feel the man himself had already organised a spot above his own mantle piece for the medal.
What resulted shocked the footy world and despite the priceless look on Eddie McGuire’s face when Judd couldn’t lose, there was an overriding feeling of disbelief.
What it proved was that there is no such thing as a certainty when it comes to Brownlow night.
If you are going to run a book on the Brownlow or anything else for that matter, I think you should at least see it through until the end. For all we know, Sportsbet may be right. Judd may win it this year by the biggest margin in living memory. But he may not.
That’s what makes footy’s biggest night so enthralling to watch, and it’s one of the many reasons we love it.
I can’t help but think that some of the gloss has been removed from this year’s count and an anti climactic Brownlow night is not what it’s all about.
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