Why the Collingwood Magpies will win tonight
Columnist By Michael DiFabrizio, 2 Sep 2011 Michael DiFabrizio is a Roar Expert
- Tagged:
- AFL, Collingwood Magpies, Geelong Cats
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The two best teams in the competition meet at the MCG tonight and while there may technically be nothing to be gained by winning, it’s likely we’ll get a glimpse at what’s in store over the next four and a bit weeks. If that is indeed the case, expect the Pies to walk off the ground winners.
Yes, Geelong did beat Collingwood in their last encounter. It was a narrow win, though, and the form from the other 20 games each team has played this year reveals a gap does exist between the two sides.
The Pies have let one game slip to the Cats this year, it’s hard to see them doing so again on the eve of finals.
Mick Malthouse has his team consistently doing what it takes to get the four points. Whenever the team has been challenged, the team has responded.
Tonight will be the same. The result might not be significant in terms of ladder position or how the finals are structured, but there are still four points on offer. To think that Malthouse would allow his team to waver from their usual focus, especially one week out from finals, is crazy.
Then you have to consider just how good this Collingwood team is. Which is, really good.
We are talking about a side without an obvious weakness. Last year their chances were hindered by poor goal kicking – it very nearly cost them the flag in the first grand final – but this year not even that can be considered a weakness.
The Pies are the fifth most accurate side in the comp, with 55.34 per cent of scoring shots being goals. This is up from 49.75 per cent last year, which meant more behinds than goals were scored over the course of the year.
Accuracy by itself is no measure of a side’s worthiness of the flag (Port Adelaide are this year’s second most accurate side) but when viewed in the context of it being the last remaining weakness of a great side, it’s worth noting.
Their percentage, at 181.75, also reflects how good a team they are.
In late July it was reported the Pies had the highest percentage of any team at that stage of the year in 100 years. Given their percentage has increased since then, that’s a record they probably still hold (it might even be the highest percentage ever now).
Geelong has not drastically improved in a particular area that could previously be described as a major weakness. Geelong doesn’t have the win count or percentage of the Pies.
Basically the only thing standing between Collingwood and the flag is complacency and a side that’s able to exploit that complacency should it reveal itself on the big stage.
So my tip goes to Collingwood. For tonight, and the next four and a bit weeks.
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The Crowd Says (10) | Page 1 of Comments
Have Your Say
- Explore:
- AFL, Collingwood Magpies, Geelong Cats
September 2nd 2011 @ 10:27am
Richard said | September 2nd 2011 @ 10:27am | Report comment
Time will tell of course but I do hope you’re right. Hopefully, however, no-one will underestimate the capability in the Geelong side to win when it counts, the evident burning hunger to win a flag without Bomber Thompson, the talent in the side, their considerable experience on the big stage, or their deserved pride in the traditions at Kardinia Park. Geelong have earned and are due respect for being the best football side over the later part of the first decade of this century and will prove to be no easy beats. Geelong have earned respect and the ‘Pies should duly pay it to them.
September 2nd 2011 @ 12:03pm
brendan said | September 2nd 2011 @ 12:03pm | Report comment
A well balanced response Richard .Collingwood are the rightful premiership favourites and a good team to boot but this particularly bunch of Geelong players and the inherent culture of the club demand respect .As a cats supporter i am hoping this group win a third flag so these players can be afforded the honor of being part of our best ever era but i am realistic enough to concede that never in the history of the game has a side lost only two games by under a goal in thirty odd so Collingwoods flag favouritism is well deserved.I personally think the game against the Eagles is your only danger lose that (i dont expect it but w/c are 20′s for the flag) and you may cop a tough game the next week before a prelim against a rested top three side.Anyway good luck dont you just love the finals.
September 2nd 2011 @ 5:00pm
Richard said | September 2nd 2011 @ 5:00pm | Report comment
I have to admit (but keep it between us
) that I have gone along to a few Geelong games over the past few years even when the ‘Pies weren’t playing, just for the pure pleasure of watching them play football. IMO they should have won the 2008 GF; they were clearly the better team in general play. If they had, they would have won a deserved 3 in a row. I hope you guys make up for it in the QF this year. I might conceivably be balanced in my view about Geelong, but there’s nothing balanced about the way I feel about Hawthorn. Good luck to you too. And yes, do love the finals, and AFL memberships with finals access too!
September 2nd 2011 @ 3:13pm
Rob McLean said | September 2nd 2011 @ 3:13pm | Report comment
I agree with you blokes.
I hope we can win but Geelong are a team to respect.
PS: Why is the photo of a Collingwood VFL player?
September 2nd 2011 @ 7:29pm
ChrisH said | September 2nd 2011 @ 7:29pm | Report comment
Strange choice of photos used on The Roar sometimes. Generally a couple of years old. First time for a VFL shot though.
September 2nd 2011 @ 10:45pm
Rob McLean said | September 2nd 2011 @ 10:45pm | Report comment
Glad I showed respect to Geelong….
And…maybe it was the VFL side out there tonight.
September 3rd 2011 @ 1:38am
Nathan of Perth said | September 3rd 2011 @ 1:38am | Report comment
Surprise! Geelong by a landslide
September 3rd 2011 @ 2:03am
BigAl said | September 3rd 2011 @ 2:03am | Report comment
I had an inkling this sort of result was on the cards. . . however I was sure Collingwood would be the victors !!!!
Hard to tell what these sort of blow out results mean really – we’ve had far more than a fair share this season, and that’s not counting the hapless Power and novice Suns – a real blight on the game !
All this brings to mind Adelaide’s first game ever in the AFL, where they totally destroyed Hawthorn who were the reigning premiers !
September 3rd 2011 @ 12:57pm
Rob McLean said | September 3rd 2011 @ 12:57pm | Report comment
Well, I hope you’re right and the reigning premiers win on the day that counts!
September 3rd 2011 @ 1:08pm
Richard said | September 3rd 2011 @ 1:08pm | Report comment
One team was playing finals footy last night and one team thought they were at a pre-season practice match. Geelong were outstanding (just as they were poor last week). Their ball movement was superb, their pressure was excruciating, their structure was stifling, their skills were sublime. (That 90 degree kick on the run by Stevey J. positioning the ball from the corridor to a team-mate in clear space on the flank will live in my memory forever). I hope Geelong bring that same game to the MCG next week against the Hawks. I hope Collingwood never bring their game of last night anywhere ever again. Well done Geelong. Get up ‘Pies! Game on!