David Wojcinski of Geelong takes a spectacular mark over Alex Fasolo of Collingwood during the AFL Round 24 match between the Collingwood Magpies and the Geelong Cats at the MCG, Melbourne. Slattery Images.
It’s a rare moment when your team shreds the unbackable favourites and reigning premier by nigh on 100 points, and you can’t decide whether you’re pleased. But looking at recent history, some Cats fans might be wishing Friday night’s result had gone differently.
In 2007, a seesawing match in Round 21 saw Port Adelaide snatch a last-second win by five points down at whatever Kardinia Park was being called at the time. The Cats’ winning streak that had begun in Round 6 was snapped.
Port was buoyant when they faced Geelong in the grand final a few weeks later. By the end of that afternoon, they had copped the worst beating in grand final history.
In Round 17 2008, the Cats held off Hawthorn in one of the most intense and punishing matches of the season, getting home by 11 points. Grand final day was supposed to follow suit, but the Hawks inflicted Geelong’s second loss of the season.
In 2009, St Kilda and Geelong both started the season with 13 wins. Their Round 14 classic was another brutal encounter, which saw the Saints praised as the new standard-bearers after winning by a late goal.
Geelong went into that year’s grand final as definite underdogs, but came away with the win.
Win during the season, lose in the finals.
So if the nation’s footy tippers are right, and this year does end up with a Collingwood-Geelong grand final, surely the best result for the Cats would have been a narrow hard-fought loss in Round 24?
Of course, trying to predict the future from the past can be a pointless pursuit. One of the cleverer inventions that casinos have devised to screw money from people is the roulette table ‘tree’ – the board that displays the last fifteen or twenty results.
The human brain can’t help looking for patterns, and from there extrapolating. Just watch punters start hammering red after a croupier spins eight or ten blacks in a row. Mathematically, the odds are the same as ever, but some part of our minds can’t help thinking the streak has to break.
Finding a pattern in football’s win-loss scenario is a little more plausible though, given we can add the aspect of human psychology.
For the sides that lose, there is the sense they may have avoided completely showing their hand.
The side that wins may have given more away than they intended.
And regardless of how much video training and remote strategy goes on these days, facing a team’s methods gives a far greater insight than any amount of scouting or briefing.
For the side that wins, they may end up with an unreasonable sense of confidence, and start preparing for a type of match that will not in fact be forthcoming.
The losers, meantime, remove a little of the pressure of expectation – that which comes from outside sources, and that which comes from themselves. In accepting the chance that they could lose next time around, they can take a fearless approach to trying to win.
All that said, this win will have run the Cats into form and confidence.
The most important factor by far was the performance by Geelong’s young brigade, who were not just useful, but crucial. Late in the first quarter, despite dominating play, the Cats had kicked five points to the Pies’ four goals. It looked like they were in for a torrid night.
Enter the teenager, the much injured rookie, the first-year player.
Daniel Menzel kicked three goals to half time on his way to five for the night. Mitch Duncan was prominent all over the ground. The diminutive Allen Christensen grew to enormous stature on the field, leaping, harassing, demanding possessions through sheer persistence. He bagged three goals in the second quarter.
Tom Hawkins hauled down a shoulder-ride screamer in the goal square. Mature-age second-year James Podsiadly fought and bullocked. Travis Varcoe had his best game in the blue and white, finally doing justice to his recent ball-magnet status with consistent and accurate disposal. He kicked two goals and created four more.
Between them, they began a staggering scoring run of 90 points to Collingwood’s six. The scoresheet from Geelong’s first goal to the shadows of half time read Menzel, Hawkins, Menzel, Christensen, Christensen, Podsiadly, Duncan, Mackie, Christensen, Menzel.
Christensen apparently was overlooked by a number of clubs due to high skin-fold results at draft camps. The Cats picked him up cheap with pick 40. No doubt a few recruiters are wishing a ham toastie could lure him to their sides now.
The exploits of the young fired up the older guard too. Paul Chapman gritted his teeth in gearing up for another injury-hampered September, his scything delivery inside 50 slicing the play open, with three goals of his own the reaped reward.
David Wojcinski played his strongest game in weeks, dashing through the middle on several occasions, and hauling in one of those rare screamers where the guy keeps going up even after he’s taken the ball. It made you look around for a forklift driver.
Josh Hunt regained some equanimity after looking the weak link in losses to Essendon and West Coast.
To test whether the mojo is truly back will be Hawthorn, that side that Geelong has beaten time and again in recent years except for the one day when it really mattered. Next Friday night will see those two sides open the finals with a contest of the utmost class.
Make it past them, and it’ll likely be the Eagles, the old foe of the early 90s. They’ve run back into blazing form, discovered new stars, and are a genuine premiership chance.
Not to worry though. They beat the Cats by eight points just a few weeks ago.
Follow Geoff on Twitter: @GeoffLemonSport
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