Attention Wallabies: can we get excited now?
By Brett McKay, 6 Sep 2011 Brett McKay is a Roar Expert
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I reckon it must be time. We Wallabies supporters are notorious for pinning all hope on the slightest hint of positivity from our team, and we’ll happily have you believe that even the faintest run of anything closely resembling momentum can (and will) only end with Rugby World Cup glory.
So now that the Wallabies have actually won a title … well, ceilings aren’t built high enough to contain our current expectations!
Now sure, we know we are prone to the odd bout of over-exuberance when it comes to singing the praises of our national side, but come on, if now’s not the time to get excited about a team on the up, then when is?
Anyway, almost exactly two years ago today I wrote a column entitled “So Robbie, when can we expect some silverware?” At that time, the Wallabies had just demolished South Africa in Brisbane, and were heading to Wellington for the final game of the Tri-Nations.
Robbie Deans had promoted a young punk scrumhalf named Genia for his first Test start, and Adam Ashley-Cooper finished the best post-try celebration of the season somewhere near row K.
However, it was hard to know which Wallabies side would turn up from one week to the next. Sound familiar?
Looking back over that 2009 column, there’s a few points that still stick out now:
“And on that note, what are were building towards currently? Is the 2011 Rugby World Cup the start or the end of this ‘rebuilding phase’? What about the 2010 and 2011 Tri-Nations and Bledisloe Cups before then?
Test wins here and there are great, but they’re going to need to be strung together more now, preferably bringing home some trophies for the dusty, disused cabinet.
I know there’s been a lot of necessary change and experimentation, and I appreciate that a new coach needs time to put his stamp on proceedings.
But surely the time must be rapidly approaching where the Wallabies are no longer ‘in transition’ and once again are just The Wallabies?”
Thankfully, the ARU cabinet is no longer empty and dusty, and depending on which SANZAR country’s papers you read, the Tri Nations trophy is set to become as long term an installation at HQ as Robbie Deans himself.
And I reckon too, for most of the last twelve months, if I’m honest, that we have actually been watching The Wallabies. Apart from maybe a few back-up options in certain positions, the matchday 22 is essentially a known entity. Thankfully. The experimentation looks to be done.
This then begs the question asked within the heading. If I use myself as the benchmark for the average Wallaby fan, the Tri-Nations win is a justifiable reason to be feeling good about the next six weeks in New Zealand.
Only the most patriotic and/or financially secure of bookmakers would be silly enough to install the Wallabies ahead of the All Blacks as RWC favourites, and with good reason. But I bet more than a few are just a tad nervous, with Australia looking like decent value on the second line.
The best part about the quest to lift “Bill” is that you only have to play New Zealand once. Heck, if the gods are Wallaby fans too, we might not have to play them at all.
Either way, beating the All Blacks just once is no longer the scary prospect it once was. It’s still daunting, given it still has to happen in New Zealand, but I’d reckon the Wallabies’ first half demolition of the All Blacks in the Tri-Nations decider has given more than a few teams a bit of confidence as they arrive in the Shaky Isles this week.
So I’d reckon the sudden buoyancy among the Wallaby faithful is well warranted. But what about the rest of the arriving nations?
Perhaps the bigger question is whether the growing confidence on this side of the ditch is relative to any growing concerns on the eastern side? Is there any concern at all? The wags will of course suggest that New Zealand’s quadrennial rugby implosion begins this Friday night, but I think only the foolhardy and outright cruel truly believe that.
And what of South Africa?
Will the decision to leave 21 first-choice players back home at a just-don’t-call-it-a-training camp during the Tri-Nations become 2011’s Kamp Staaldraad over time? In his excellent RWC companion book, Spiro suggests that the Springboks’ age factor is going to be a major problem for them, and going by their Tri-Nations form, I find it difficult to argue with this line of thought.
Will England even be allowed into the country this week, after having the audacity to choose black as their alternate RWC strip colour?
I mean, the hide of them, no-one wears the same colour as anyone else! Will their Six Nations stability pull them through to the pointy end of the competition? And have they worked out whether Toby Flood or Jonny Wilkinson will wear the no.10?
Can Argentina once again become Rugby World Cup darlings and emulate their giant-killing run from 2007? Could it be a complete “Quad-Nations” sweep for the semis?
Could France’s uncanny knack of winning in New Zealand have them placed as the best northern hemisphere chance? And which Irish, Scottish, and Welsh teams will show up?
And who will be the tournament’s smokey? My hunch is it might be Samoa, and the Pacific seems the right part of the rugby world to produce the 2011 edition’s fairytale.
It all begins this Friday, of course, and no matter who you support or how irrational that support may be, now certainly is the time to get excited. It should be a cracking spectacle of rugby, and whoever wins will have played incredibly well over seven games.
Just look out if that turns out to be the Wallabies!
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September 6th 2011 @ 5:49am
jus de couchon said | September 6th 2011 @ 5:49am | Report comment
Good luck Aus and all the other antipods.
I think England and France are not just there to make up the numbers and NZ are about to enter a “double dip” as far as results go. If you like attractive rugby then prey the Taffs can stiff the Yappies .
Australian backline looks the best.
September 6th 2011 @ 6:12am
warrenexpatinnz said | September 6th 2011 @ 6:12am | Report comment
Brett I always remain in a heightend state of excitement being a Wallaby supporter because as soon as you drop the buzz they go and do the unexpected from the try feast in France last year to the change in character in Brisbane.
The squad mix Deans and his assistants have put together is the best squad, for me shading both the 2007 and 2003 squads with the forwards being the master stroke as seen in Brisbane.
Deans copped flak, me included re the selection of Vickerman but Vickermans performance in Brisbane showed the coach that Deans is. Vickerman is hard nosed, doesn’t accept second best and if your a young buck make sure your at the best you can be because he will make you melt with a stare. Lose Vickerman and we have Sharpe, almost a one for one with Sharpe’s leadership ability a big plus.
The make up of the forwards with experience, muscle and raw aggression/youth we now see a pack that has a steely look;
Captain Australia; James Horwill, Vickerman, Pocock, Elsom, Samo (his selection timed so perfectly to give the big fella the petrol to last a RWC), Moore, Kepu and Alexander then with Sharpe, Simmons, Palu, Higginbotham, McCalman, Taf, Slipper, Mafu and Faianga.
People may question a couple of these guys as not having the strength or ability to meet the better opposition but having experience around you, guys who are equal or even the best in their position in the world you are made to step up and achieve your best.
The backs, well they are good and we are blessed with talent, X factor and youth though that youth now having 100+ tests experience between them because Deans made sure that they have been blooded against the best and have shown their mettle, as the entire team has with two wins against the ABs in pressure cooker situations in the last three encounters. The win in South Africa is also not be ignored, once a place for hidings the Wallabies now have shown no fear in the republic.
Deans played his best when available, but he also took the heat when not reverting back to older stock when injuries came instead sticking with guys earmarked with potential or with the ability to be solid in their chosen position. Deans signing on for a further two years also shows that he is very confident in his squad, his ability and Aussie rugby, those that may knock him point to the money but belief in yourself and your team is a must and Deans has that as do the players that have signed on further, who have forgone overseas money.
I am excited and confident, we have a coach who backs his guys 100% and we have a team that backs their coach 100% and going in with a title won and wins over the number 1 and number 3 in the world.
As for my second team to watch, look out for Samoa because they gave us the rude awakening of showing what happens when not being mentaly right and also x the boxes on players that we needed to but also because they have shown some beautiful running rugby with controlled aggression.
September 6th 2011 @ 6:26am
Brett McKay said | September 6th 2011 @ 6:26am | Report comment
this is a great comment Warren, and I think I agree with pretty much everything you’ve written here. I too had major reservations about Vickerman starting in Brisbane, but I honestly lost count of the number of times I exclaimed “VICKERMAN!!” during that first half. He’s cagey, Robbie Deans, perhaps he does know what he’s doing after all!!
Your thoughts on the way Deans has promoted youth is bang on, and I think Beale winning the Eales Medal last week – the ultimate rating from team-mates – means that these guys can play with the freedom and instinct that they want to. They can literally ‘play what’s in front of them’. And it’s difficult not to get excited by that prospect.
So yeah, get excited Wallaby fans! There’s a lot to like with the current squad, and you just never know where the journey might end..
September 6th 2011 @ 6:37am
warrenexpatinnz said | September 6th 2011 @ 6:37am | Report comment
When Kurtley stepped up to get the award I will be honest, a had a man moisty, seeing shots of his family crying and so obviously proud was a pretty special watch.
, thinking you were there is something that I am personaly so gratefull for and the reason that I love live sport, and especially why I love rugby.
When Beale and the team do those special things that make you jump around like an idiot, scaring all NZers sitting in the lounge
September 6th 2011 @ 7:22am
warrenexpatinnz said | September 6th 2011 @ 7:22am | Report comment
Man moisty is a tear, I don’t ever admit to crying!
September 6th 2011 @ 8:59am
Brett McKay said | September 6th 2011 @ 8:59am | Report comment
none of us do, Warren
September 6th 2011 @ 3:17pm
ilikedahoodoogurusingha said | September 6th 2011 @ 3:17pm | Report comment
Whatever you guys do then, do not go and watch “Red Dog”!!
September 6th 2011 @ 12:28pm
Sage said | September 6th 2011 @ 12:28pm | Report comment
3 posts out of the blocks !! I bet that feels better Waz. All this pent up WC anticipation and few outlets. Thank God for The Roar and the catharsis afforded.
September 6th 2011 @ 12:47pm
warrenexpatinnz said | September 6th 2011 @ 12:47pm | Report comment
Its like Xmas mate but my girls aren’t overly fussed by rugby, oh and they go for the All Blacks although the youngest at 10 is my best chance of conversion.
September 6th 2011 @ 9:02am
johnny-boy said | September 6th 2011 @ 9:02am | Report comment
Captain Australia – I liked that Warren and very apt. That 1st half at Suncorp confirmed to me (in only my hope of hopes of course) that the Wallabies would be a completely different animal with Horwill as captain along with the toughness of Vickerman, as well as Samo. I’m still mystified what brought Deans to his epiphany, to finally getting it right. Has he really been foxing for the last 4 years ? Is anyone so brilliantly canny as to be throwing dummies for that long only to finally make a break down the middle, a la Samo ‘? The risk reward was so high only a fool or a self assured genius would even think of attempting it. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was as someone mentioned previously, that Deans in negotiating his last 2 years finally had leverage to demand the freedom to pick his side and his captain. Either that or he finally realised he was standing at the cliff of mediocrity and decided the leap in to the valley of failure would hurt more than the risk of turning and facing his fears. It will make an interesting tale one day.
September 6th 2011 @ 12:54pm
warrenexpatinnz said | September 6th 2011 @ 12:54pm | Report comment
JB Horwill is perfect as Captain, Samo is perfect for 8 but in 50 minute bursts and Vickerman, well the guy has suprized me with his return to form but watching him stare down the Haka then cleanout at the rucks, pure gold of past days.
I am still trying to remember who it was that Vickerman more or less threw out of the lineout back in his first Tah days, was a forward and was in the wrong position, possibly Dunning?
The guy doesn’t take crap from the opposition and his own players so having him fit and ready is a very big plus.
September 6th 2011 @ 1:13pm
Mike said | September 6th 2011 @ 1:13pm | Report comment
“Vickerman is hard nosed, doesn’t accept second best and if your a young buck make sure your at the best you can be because he will make you melt with a stare.”
We’ve known that at Uni for years! Glad he’s back in country
September 6th 2011 @ 1:18pm
warrenexpatinnz said | September 6th 2011 @ 1:18pm | Report comment
He does have that presence Mike, never met the bloke but hope to bump into the team at a couple of their games. Glad he is back to mate.
September 6th 2011 @ 6:22am
kingplaymaker said | September 6th 2011 @ 6:22am | Report comment
Expect to see a super-sized Wallabies when it comes to the knockout rounds. The team will be the biggest and most powerful as Deans has realised that was a critical element missing.
The Wallabies should have an easy run to the final, playing at most one serious match, probably a semi against South Africa. So in terms of the consistency you’re talking them having lacked in the past Brett, it may not matter. They may only need one huge performance.
You’ve always kept your opinion on Deans secret. Is he a good thing?
New Zealanders may have the nightmare image of Deans lifting the world cup trophy aloft haunting their heads, but by that stage they should be blaming themselves for any loss. They are playing the semi and final in Eden park and have most of the best players in the world. If they lose it will be deserved because so many factors are in their favour. Consider how competitive a New Zealand third XV would be after 10 games or so: Muliaina, Dagg, Toeava three full-backs, Gear, Jane, Sivivatu, Ranger, Maitland, Smith six wings, Nonu, Smith, SBW, Kahui, Fruean, Stanley. Weepu, Cowan, Ellis three scrum-halves. Carter, Slade, Cruden three fly-halves. You could easily make three All Blacks XVs that after a year’s playing could be the best in the world. If they can’t win at home with those resources, then one can’t have too much sympathy.
September 6th 2011 @ 6:34am
Brett McKay said | September 6th 2011 @ 6:34am | Report comment
KPM, I don’t think I’ve hidden that I like Robbie Deans as a coach, and have always considered him the right man for the job. I have wondered about how or why he’s done certain things over the last four years, but I’ve never called for his head either. So yeah, he’s a good thing..
And while you make a point re the ABs 3rd XV being competitive, I think there will stil be plenty of sympathy should they not win the Final. Expectation can do funny things to people, and I don’t know that expectations get any higher than what the ABs squad will be feeling over the next six weeks. IF – and it’s still a big ‘if’ – the Wallabies happen to get over the ABs in the Final, I’ll certainly be takinhg some time out from my celebrations to think of the Kiwis, because I think they’re a deserving favourite to win..
September 6th 2011 @ 5:23pm
Krash said | September 6th 2011 @ 5:23pm | Report comment
well said Brett.
While I don’t reckon I could ever support the ABs (in all honesty, I’d like to see someone entirely new lift Bill this year), I can’t help but feel they well and truly deserve to take this thing more than any other nation.
So I see this RWC show playing out in only one of two ways: either the ABs crash out spectacularly, or they win the comp as comfortably as Usain Bolt wins his races. I reckon they’ve learned too much now to be caught off-guard.
September 6th 2011 @ 10:17am
ChrisT said | September 6th 2011 @ 10:17am | Report comment
“The Wallabies should have an easy run to the final, playing at most one serious match, probably a semi against South Africa”
Totally bizarre statement. Have you looked at the pools at all? Why don’t you talk us through that.
September 6th 2011 @ 11:19am
kingplaymaker said | September 6th 2011 @ 11:19am | Report comment
I have and I stick to it.
September 6th 2011 @ 6:47am
kingplaymaker said | September 6th 2011 @ 6:47am | Report comment
Of course I don’t think anyone should feel emotionally unsympathetic, but there should be some accountability if it doesn’t work and a recognition that there might be a problem with the rugby culture in various ways. Of course the rugby culture might be proven right if they win, but if not it should be questioned. The fundamental culture is constantly questioned in Australia, partly because they lose more, but it is hardly ever questioned in New Zealand.
A factor that gets less attention regarding the quarter-final loss in 2007 is that France were playing at home. Granted it didn’t take them past the next round but if any team can’t temperamentally win two big matches in a row it’s France. Although there will be a lot of pressure, I still think New Zealand will be much tougher at Eden park than elsewhere in the world. Personally I feel the achilles heel is the perverse insistence on choosing almost the worst back three possible and this constitutes the biggest risk to their winning. If they can be brave enough to jettison Muliaina and Guildford for Dagg and Toeava, factoring in that the last two rounds will be at Eden park, it will be extraordinarily tough to beat them. Australia are in a good position too and are really hitting their straps, but too much thinking that the ABs are bound to choke is best avoided.
September 6th 2011 @ 7:19am
ohtani's jacket said | September 6th 2011 @ 7:19am | Report comment
Cardiff, Wales is not in France.
September 6th 2011 @ 8:11am
Pot Hale said | September 6th 2011 @ 8:11am | Report comment
In KPM’s mind it probably is – it’s in the Northern Hemisphere.
September 6th 2011 @ 8:14am
kingplaymaker said | September 6th 2011 @ 8:14am | Report comment
Yes that’s my bad memory. In that case the ABs really shouldn’t have lost and how on earth did France win?
September 6th 2011 @ 8:25am
allblackfan said | September 6th 2011 @ 8:25am | Report comment
KPM, let’s start and end with the ref, shall we? In between, let’s throw in bookmaker sue, mururoa nuclear testing, al qaeda (always good to blame for anything!) and chenobyl for good measure!!
September 6th 2011 @ 8:29am
kingplaymaker said | September 6th 2011 @ 8:29am | Report comment
abf perhaps the only thing to take from that match is that New Zealand are much weaker when they lose a Carter or a Mccaw. That’s a huge problem for them this time too-even more than tactically, psychologically. What if one of those two goes down in a tight match? Australia are not actually as psychologically dependent on any one player.
September 6th 2011 @ 10:28am
ChrisT said | September 6th 2011 @ 10:28am | Report comment
“Australia are not actually as psychologically dependent on any one player”
Yeah you are KPM. Cooper. And the thing about him is that even when he’s actually on the pitch sometimes he goes missing, typically when you need him most. He’s potentially your biggest asset and biggest liability.
I’d also argue the Wallabies rely heavilly on Genia. Loose those two and you lose pretty much all your invention
September 6th 2011 @ 11:45am
Riccardo said | September 6th 2011 @ 11:45am | Report comment
Agree Chris T. Worse tho KPM, if little general Genia goes down reckon the Wallabies will struggle worse than AB’s without Carter or McGaw. Chris T is right tho. Mercurial Cooper who necessitates complete realignment when on defensive set piece (WTF?) is your achilles heel. Brilliant on front foot attack but potentially caustic going backwards in open play…
September 6th 2011 @ 12:12pm
JohnB said | September 6th 2011 @ 12:12pm | Report comment
Rainbow warrior in there somewhere too ABF!
September 6th 2011 @ 11:59pm
Matt O'Brien said | September 6th 2011 @ 11:59pm | Report comment
No penalties against France for 54 minutes, Guinness Book Of Records?
September 6th 2011 @ 11:42am
Terry Kidd said | September 6th 2011 @ 11:42am | Report comment
roflmao … good one
September 6th 2011 @ 7:34am
Who Needs Melon said | September 6th 2011 @ 7:34am | Report comment
We can’t help but be excited. And a lot more confident this week than a month or so ago.
But the Wallabies continual problem has been complacency – not ‘turning up’ because we’ve under-rated opposition in comparison with ourselves. There are a LOT of bogey teams out there and we mustn’t for a split second think ahead to semis or anything like that. Deans knows this and was correct in saying we must play every game like a final.
I also think we need to try to win EVERY game with our forwards. There should be no thinking that we should just try to match the opposition in the forwards and hope the backs will win the match. Parity is not good enough. If English or Irish forwards get a sniff of ascendency then their tails will get up and it’ll be all over before we have time to rethink. The last game against the All Blacks has to be our benchmark and blueprint for every game from here on.
I’d like to see some of the crazy stuff from Cooper. I really would. I think that, although they will have been warned and watched highlights, oppositions will be caught by surprise by outrageousness – particularly when used to stodgy, ‘win ugly’ type rugby we often see at World Cups. Think of the times France has beaten the All Blacks at these things – it was with outrageous, audacious rugby. But we also have to have an ‘all round game’, be smart, kick judiciously and take penalties when they’re on offer.
In the end there’s no doubting that luck plays a big part in these things. So let’s roll the dice!
September 6th 2011 @ 7:49am
kingplaymaker said | September 6th 2011 @ 7:49am | Report comment
WNM I think there will be much less pressure on Cooper than before. Why? If the pack perform anything like as well as in Brisbane he will not be behind a group of forwards that are being bullied, as has often been the case. Then, there are the strong defensive centres and his only repositioning, which takes a lot of the stress of him. But the biggest factor I think will be Digby Ioane. That might sound like an odd thing to say, but he is actually a very considerable threat to the opposition, and means that the entire back three are dangerous, so whereas in the past it was possible to heavily mark Cooper, he will now be able to draw defenders in the middle of the field, and then throw out those massive passes to the back three. The opposition will therefore have to reduce the marking they put on him, which will create more problems for them as he will then be able to attack there.
September 6th 2011 @ 11:18am
kingplaymaker said | September 6th 2011 @ 11:18am | Report comment
ChrisT I wasn’t doubting they depended him on a player, but that is different from depending on him PSYCHOLOGICALLY. If Carter or Mccaw goes off, the ABs will feel they have already lost. If Cooper goes off the Wallabies won’t worry so much, even if they actually should.
I don’t agree he goes missing actually, I think that’s just the standard view of any flamboyant player, but he has in fact become very consistent.
September 6th 2011 @ 1:35pm
ChrisT said | September 6th 2011 @ 1:35pm | Report comment
No need to shout KPM, capable of reading your previous post. Still disagree. It’s not so much a psychological edge, it’s much simpler than that. If McCaw and particularly Carter go off it’s simply that they don’t have anything near the calibre to bring on. Their contribution is what they actually do on the pitch not any mind game nonsense. Pretty much the same thing if Genia or Cooper go off for the Wallabies.
September 6th 2011 @ 1:16pm
Mike said | September 6th 2011 @ 1:16pm | Report comment
WNM – the attitude they show in the first match against Italy will tell a lot.
September 6th 2011 @ 7:55am
Will Sinclair said | September 6th 2011 @ 7:55am | Report comment
Very, very, very excited.
This is clearly the best Wallabies team since 2001, and they’re a genuine chance of taking the title.
Bring it on.
September 6th 2011 @ 8:16am
Pot Hale said | September 6th 2011 @ 8:16am | Report comment
Australia will definitely win the World Cup. They have the players. They have the coach.
They have the easiest group and should stroll through it. Then run over the Boks in the quarters, make mincemeat of France in the semis, and finally manage to beat England in the final with a last minute penalty kick.
September 6th 2011 @ 8:18am
kingplaymaker said | September 6th 2011 @ 8:18am | Report comment
I think you must have got England confused with New Zealand on the grounds of their new black kit.
September 6th 2011 @ 8:28am
Brett McKay said | September 6th 2011 @ 8:28am | Report comment
Pots, if Australia have to play England in the Final, would it be too much to ask if we could win it with a double-overtime drop goal??
And you’re probably best placed to answer my question as to which Ireland will turn up?? How confident are you, good sir??
September 6th 2011 @ 10:33am
ChrisT said | September 6th 2011 @ 10:33am | Report comment
Blimey. Can we sort this out now before we go any further. Given the groups, just how exactly do Australia play England in the final? Someone please talk me throiugh that
September 6th 2011 @ 11:18am
Brett McKay said | September 6th 2011 @ 11:18am | Report comment
QF1: W Pool C v RU Pool D
QF2: W Pool B v RU Pool A
QF3: W Pool D v RU Pool C
QF4: W Pool A v RU Pool B
SF1: W QF1 v W QF2
SF2: W QF3 v W QF4
Final
Chris, if England finished 2nd in Pool B, they would play the winner of Pool A (probably NZ) in QF4. Should they win that (it’s just a hypothetical, my Kiwi friends!!) they would then play in SF2 (probably against SA, if things go as expected).
Meanwhile, if Australia win Pool C, they come through QF1 and SF1, which is the other side of the draw to England (if they finish 2nd in their pool).
That’s how they’d meet in the Final…
September 6th 2011 @ 12:27pm
ChrisT said | September 6th 2011 @ 12:27pm | Report comment
Yeah Brett sorry, i absolutely got the route and i absolutely get this is cup rugby but that route is just never gonna happen for England – unless we’re all signing up for Georgia in the S/F, Wliko to finish top try scorer and wrong side Richie never to infringe all tournament?!!
September 6th 2011 @ 12:31pm
Brett McKay said | September 6th 2011 @ 12:31pm | Report comment
be that as it may Chris, the route is there, and an Aus-Eng Final is possible. If i’ve leaned anything watching Cup tournaments over time, it’s that can never say never. I’d agree that this scenario is unlikely, but still, it’s not out of the question..
September 6th 2011 @ 1:37pm
ChrisT said | September 6th 2011 @ 1:37pm | Report comment
That’s why i still buy lottery tickets Brett. Madness.
September 7th 2011 @ 8:48am
Blanco said | September 7th 2011 @ 8:48am | Report comment
If England beats the All Blacks in the Quarter finals, then I’ll be beating up my teddy bear!
September 6th 2011 @ 8:26am
Balmain Breakaway said | September 6th 2011 @ 8:26am | Report comment
If we can make it to the quarters, play solid against Samoa, then shape up against the poms and Belt them, then play very well in the final, I’ll be happy.
Predictions: Sharpe won’t make the 22. TPN to have a blinder. JOC will have to work his hole off to get back in, esp with Barnes and Mitchell on the sidelines. With the level of competition now in the squad, (except 7, 9 and 10?), I think I’ll join Brett in being hopeful that the complacency has gone!!!
September 6th 2011 @ 8:34am
Brett McKay said | September 6th 2011 @ 8:34am | Report comment
BB, I love how we’re all now super-confident and everything, but I’ll bet I wasn’t the first to nod along with every word of your cautious optimism here!! Even when we’re excited an confident we’re still worried…
September 6th 2011 @ 8:37am
allblackfan said | September 6th 2011 @ 8:37am | Report comment
KPM, the Wallabies are dependent on two players. What if Genia and Pocock are lost? (I discount Cooper because he’s as much a threat to the Wallabies as he is to the opposition!)
While it is true that the ABs need Carter and McCaw, I think the team environment in the ABs is geared toward ensuring the playing XV plays their best, no matter who’s out there. So even if Carter and/or McCaw are lost, the ABs’s potency is a lot less diluted then, say, the Wallabies. I’m sure the Boks are in the same situation as ABs due to their depth (and perhaps France).
Rugby is a contact sport; the risk of injury is always there. You just have to plan for it then go out and play until injury strikes. What more can you do?
September 6th 2011 @ 8:39am
kingplaymaker said | September 6th 2011 @ 8:39am | Report comment
abf I don’t think Genia is quite as crucial and if so, he is crucial less psychologically to his team than Carter and Mccaw.
It’s impossible to replace those two of course, but Todd and Cruden on the bench looks better than Thomson and Slade.
September 6th 2011 @ 9:28am
formeropenside said | September 6th 2011 @ 9:28am | Report comment
The problem is if Genia goes down, the replacement is Burgess. Great general rugby player, but his pass is suboptimal. There goes a functioning backline, largely.
September 6th 2011 @ 9:42am
kingplaymaker said | September 6th 2011 @ 9:42am | Report comment
formeropenside I think it’s got better. Also, when he has come on over the last year or so, he has provided somehow a positive effect, perhaps because he’s so different from Genia that the opposition are bamboozled for a while. I don’t think that’s any area to worry about. If Pocock goes down Deans can call up expert opensides with a lot of test experience.
I personally think Cooper’s the biggest danger. There’s a lot of antagonism towards him but the neutral would recognise that he is the master at the heart of the entire Wallabies attack and while a replacement might be a fine player, the tremendous game-breaking machine he transforms the backline into will begin to creak.
September 6th 2011 @ 11:57am
darwin stubby said | September 6th 2011 @ 11:57am | Report comment
‘If Pocock goes down Deans can call up expert opensides with a lot of test experience.’ … do you just make things up to fit your argument ??
September 6th 2011 @ 12:35pm
kingplaymaker said | September 6th 2011 @ 12:35pm | Report comment
Phil Waugh has played a few tests hasn’t he? And Matt Hodgson isn’t a rookie either.
Maybe Waugh’s 79 caps aren’t enough to qualify as experience in New Zealand!
September 6th 2011 @ 1:16pm
darwin stubby said | September 6th 2011 @ 1:16pm | Report comment
good god – do you believe half the stuff you write or is it purely just for kicks ? …
September 6th 2011 @ 11:51am
Riccardo said | September 6th 2011 @ 11:51am | Report comment
KPM – “abf I don’t think Genia is quite as crucial and if so he is crucial less psychologically to his team than Carter and Mccaw”. This is nonsense. I accept the validity of your claim regarding Carter or McGaw but you have to acknowledge the damage to the Team and dynamic should Genia go down. In fact, his presence is more important than Cooper’s imo…
September 6th 2011 @ 1:19pm
Mike said | September 6th 2011 @ 1:19pm | Report comment
I agree, I think Genia is a more key player than Cooper, even though the latter gets more attention.
As well as McCaw for NZ, I would also include Brussow as ultra-key player for SA.
September 6th 2011 @ 10:28am
Sprigs said | September 6th 2011 @ 10:28am | Report comment
I think NZ’s lack of respect for Quade Cooper as a player could be their undoing.
September 6th 2011 @ 11:56am
Riccardo said | September 6th 2011 @ 11:56am | Report comment
We respect his skills Sprigs. But as you guys are fond of pointing out (cue choking jokes) the pressure in this cauldron is massive. Cooper models himself on Carlos Spencer so we have seen how this pans out 1st hand and it wasn’t pretty. He’ll be treated wtih respect but I have to agree with the ample sentiment out there (and on here) that he can inflict as much damage on his own team as the opposition…
September 6th 2011 @ 8:48am
The Bush said | September 6th 2011 @ 8:48am | Report comment
Brett,
Great article. I too ‘em the ever optomistic Wallaby fan who, slowly but surely, was losing faith over the last decade, but has now had my faith renewed (somewhat). I haven’t yet retracted my stance on Dingo but a good World Cup display will certainly go a long way towards me withdrawing my criticisms.
So I guess the question then is what is a good World Cup display? Considering the state of the ‘Boks, and our dominance over them in the last two (2) seasons, and my ingrained dislike of England, I will probably accept nothing less than a World Cup Final. Whether we win or not I can probably live with, but to fall against the Bokkies or the Poms will anger me immensely.
Of some irony is that the two (2) teams arriving with the most confidence, Australia and England, haven’t won in New Zealand for the better part of a decade, whilst the two (2) teams who have done it recently, South Africa and France, arrive with somewhat less optimism.
As to the Dark Horses of the tournament, I can’t see Argentina replicating their form from the previous World Cup. Considering Scotland’s dominance over them in recent tours, the Argies should be satisfied with just making it to the Quarter-Finals.
I wont go on about Samoa, as it seems most commentators favour them to put on the best display from “the rest”, so instead I’ll comment on the groups as a whole and what I’ve noticed;
Pool A; New Zealand, France, Tonga, Canada and Japan.
This pool wont show up any surprises for the Quarters, but in Japan, Canada and Tonga it has probably three (3) of the most even “middle-weights” of World Rugby. On their day any of them can beat the other, whilst all three (3) will be hoping to beat the other two (2) and put in a strong World Cup.
I pick this pool to have the most tries scored in it and put on the showiest displays in terms of throwing the ball around.
Pool B; England, Argentina, Scotland, Georgia and Romania.
One word; “forwards”. This group is going to be brutal. Romania and Georgia won’t be pretty too look at and we know the Scots and the Argies are usually pretty dire as well, but all five (5) forwards packs can traditionally mix it with the best. Once upon a time Romania was known for its hard as nails forwards (best outside the traditional nations), but this mantle has surely been taken by Georgia. If you want to learn to scrummage, watch this pool.
Pool C; Australia, Ireland, Italy, United States and Russia.
This is most likely the weakest pool. Russia are debutants and Italy is the weakest of the “Big 10″, whilst Ireland is probably the preeminent underachiever at the Rugby World Cup.
Like Pool A, with back lines like Australia’s and Ireland’s I expect plenty of tries, whilst Russia and the United States are also known for their backline play, rather than forward dominance. Think of this group as the scrummaging counter-weight to Pool B.
Pool D; South Africa, Wales, Fiji, Samoa and Namibia.
Not quite the “Pool of Death” that was Argentina, France and Ireland’s Pool last World Cup, this is still possibly the most competitive Pool – in terms of coming second – I’ve ever seen (at least since going to twenty (20) teams).
I disagree with the commentators that suggest South Africa is in trouble. I expect them to top it rather comfortably. However Wales, Fiji and Samoa will be fighting to the death to come Second. Namibia is probably the worst team at the Wold Cup, but without a play off with Romania and Russia, we’ll never know.
With two (2) Island teams there should be tries and hopefully Fiji and Wales put on another cracker like they did in 2007 – that would probably establish their World Cup rivalry as one of the best.
September 6th 2011 @ 9:19am
Brett McKay said | September 6th 2011 @ 9:19am | Report comment
Bushy, this is a pretty good summary, can’t disagree with it too much. Just on Pool D, I actually think South Africa-Wales could be one of the matches of the pool stage. Set your IQs for Sunday night…
September 6th 2011 @ 10:21am
The Bush said | September 6th 2011 @ 10:21am | Report comment
Think I’m gonna go to the pub on Sunday Brett (so no recording), after the marathon four (4) games back to back on Saturday, I will have run out of beer and p–sed of the neighbours enough…
September 6th 2011 @ 10:03am
King of the Gorgonites said | September 6th 2011 @ 10:03am | Report comment
Some comments-
Pool A – i am holding out hope that Tonga can freighten France. France does not have a great record against island teams. they struggle to put them away. fiji in 99? tonga had a good PNC, but they lack the big name european players that fiji and samoa have. tonga had a fabolous 07 campagin, pushing RSA hard. with huge local support, witness the 7K at auckland airport, they may surprise. but we will know a lot more come friday and if they are up for it.
Pool B – Georgia is the team to watch here. If i was scotland i would be wary…..
Pool C – lets hope!
Pool D – an absolute cracker! bit harsh on Nambia though. they were certainly the worse team the the 03 RWC, but in 07 they did alright. they pushed Ireland hard. with plenty of currie cup players, they wont embarss themselves.