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World Cup wait almost over, but still we wait

Roar Guru
7th September, 2011
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Roar Guru
7th September, 2011
11
1078 Reads

Good Lord, this week is dragging. There are mountains of discussion about the rugby, but we’ve got very little raw material to get our teeth into; so it’s mostly all hot air and I’m as guilty as the next fan.

Occasionally, a punter sticks his head above the parapet and tips one of the island teams to spring a surprise but that’s not really much of a gamble. Fiji, Samoa and Tonga have all stepped up in the past, often at the expense of Wales, so it’s well within the bounds of possibility to see one of them do it again.

I’m certainly no Nostradamus, so don’t expect any great insights here.

It is interesting, though, to see how unwilling we all are to predict any upsets, when the brief history of the Rugby World Cup has thrown up quite a few.

The top three in the IRB rankings are the southern hemisphere giants.

However, there’s only been one World Cup final without a Northern Hemisphere side, namely 1995 in South Africa. The IRB didn’t release rankings back then, but South Africa might not have been in the top three in ’95.

They certainly weren’t the no-hopers that Clint Eastwood’s ‘Invictus’ portrayed, but the Boks had lost a fair few matches in the early days of their return to international rugby.

Arguably, the only finals contested between two of the top three teams were in 1987 and 2003.

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If you wanted to get picky, 2003 wouldn’t count. The first IRB rankings were released three days into the 2003 tournament.

Australia were in third place, but would have been fourth behind Ireland at the time of the opening match of the Rugby World Cup.

So why do most pre-tournament predictions focus on the form of the top three? 2007 saw a final between fourth-ranked South Africa and seventh-ranked England.

The top two teams were out in the quarter-finals and South Africa might have followed if they hadn’t pulled themselves together against Fiji.

As others on The Roar have said, the history of the Rugby World Cup is really too short to draw any conclusions; especially when you consider that three tournaments pre-date the professional era.

It does seem, though, as if we are steadily realizing that the Rugby World Cup throws up particular challenges which we don’t see in any other parts of the international calendar.

When a player misses out on a Six Nations or Tri Nations, he might console himself that next year isn’t so far away to make amends. There will even be some juicy challenges in the form of tour matches in the meantime.

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That’s not true at a Rugby World Cup. Four more years is a long wait as George Gregan was once keen to emphasize.

Some older players go in, knowing they won’t have another chance. Younger players can’t be certain they’ll still be in form or favour four years away, especially since different coaches often take over the reins.

That creates entirely different pressures. If you find yourself down by more than seven points in the second half, when do you decide to throw caution to the wind?

Perhaps, you do so at twenty minutes only to find the referee addicted to scrum resets. One massive clearing kick by the opposition and suddenly you are back in your own 22, with only 15 minutes left on the clock.

The pressure gets worse when you are up against a team you are supposed to beat.

Many less highly-ranked teams get to spend more time in training together before a Cup so they can present a more formidable obstacle than usual.

It’s a strong player who doesn’t get overcome by visions of the next day’s headlines, when he sees some unfancied lock charging down a kick and touching down to score.

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We haven’t yet seen an example in the Rugby World Cup, of the horror which is the penalty shoot-out. Wilkinson saw off that possibility in 2003, but it seems almost inevitable that one match will soon be decided that way.

Just over two years ago in a Heineken Cup semi-final, flanker Martyn Williams missed his kick for Cardiff, leaving Leicester number 8 Jordan Crane to put over the deciding score.

Has any team made preparations for that kind of outcome? In 2007, New Zealand hadn’t even prepared themselves for drop goals.

How many Roarers actually know the rules for a shootout? Each side takes five kicks from the centre of the 22 and then, if scores are tied, it’s sudden death from that point.

I’m not even sure if teams can only select players from the fifteen on the pitch at the final whistle. If so, it would present an interesting conundrum for a coach looking at his replacements as the clock counted down.

It’s true that the Rugby World Cup has, so far, only been won by major rugby nations. It would be a brave man to suggest anything different this year.

The form guide from the international matches before a tournament can only take you so far, however. The fear of failure or a growing sense that it’s just not your day have infected teams and thrown the form guide out the window before.

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I can’t predict which top sides will succumb but it will be a surprise if none do in the coming weeks.

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