It’ll be Collingwood vs Geelong in the Grand Final, right?
Columnist By Ben Somerford, 22 Sep 2011 Ben Somerford is a Roar Expert
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- AFL, AFL finals, AFL Grand Final 2011, Collingwood Magpies, Geelong Cats
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David Wojcinski of Geelong takes a spectacular mark over Alex Fasolo of Collingwood during the AFL Round 24 match between the Collingwood Magpies and the Geelong Cats at the MCG, Melbourne. Slattery Images.
The 2011 AFL preliminary finals begin tomorrow with the general consensus agreeing that Collingwood and Geelong will advance to that first Saturday in October. However it’s far from a foregone conclusion and there are ways the underdogs can be victorious.
Firstly, to Friday night’s game between the Pies and the Hawks at the MCG.
The immediate concern is for Buddy Franklin’s wellbeing who, according to team-mate Jordan Lewis, has “made friends with the toilet bowl” this week after an illness.
Hawthorn’s attacking threat is built around Franklin’s presence and if he isn’t 100 per cent fit they’ve got huge problems before a ball has even been bounced. Collingwood defender Chris Tarrant is likely to go to Franklin in a huge match-up.
The last time these two sides met was in Round 15 with the Pies brushing aside their opponents by some 41 points at the same venue, but it shouldn’t be forgotten that the Hawks were without Jordan Lewis, Brad Sewell and Cyril Rioli on that day.
Whether they’ll make the difference is hard to say, but they’ll certainly add some grunt to help Sam Mitchell ensure the Hawks get first usage of the footy. That won’t be an easy task against Collingwood’s clearance kings in Dane Swan, Scott Pendlebury and Luke Ball.
This battle will be an important factor in deciding the result of this game and it’s one which wasn’t there in Round 15.
Of course, that directly correlates to Collingwood’s strength in the ruck department over Hawthorn, with Darren Jolly likely to dominate opposed to Max Bailey and David Hale thus emphasising the importance of Lewis and Sewell in particular in the in-and-under battle.
Either way if they win or lose that battle, Hawks coach Alistair Clarkson needs to get his set-up right for when the ball does go into their forward line or backline, with the call on deploying a loose man in defence against the Pies a massive decision.
Josh Gibson, playing loose, had a superb game last Friday against the Swans, destroying anything which came into Sydney’s forward line in the air with a record 21 spoils. But the benefits of that tactic against Collingwood this week might be outweighed by the problems it brings by allowing a Pies defender free to roam inside their defensive 50.
We know how good Harry O’Brien, Heath Shaw, Leon Davis and Nick Maxwell are at that role and how damaging they can be as an attacking threat.
Having big defender Ben Stratton as an option gives Clarkson flexibility in his decision-making depending on how the game pans out, but you’d be inclined to think he needs to play man-on-man given the half-back line is arguably Collingwood’s biggest strength.
The best way to do so, would be with Stratton and Ryan Schoenmakers (who has had a tough finals series so far) matching up on Pies’ talls Chris Dawes and Travis Cloke, allowing Gibson to take a less dangerous opponent where he can play somewhat loose and attempt to destroy marking contests.
Secondly, to Saturday’s clash at the MCG between Geelong and West Coast where the Eagles are the rank outsiders.
While West Coast were enduring a heart-stopper against Carlton last Saturday, the Cats were sitting back enjoying a week’s rest. To make matters worse the Eagles must now make the difficult journey east.
However, this is a West Coast side who have surprised us all already this season and weren’t far away from a shock qualifying final victory over minor premiers Collingwood two weeks ago in the best game of the opening round of the finals.
You could argue they’ll be better off for that run, although in my opinion that’s debatable but they will have star onballer Daniel Kerr and ruckman Dean Cox fit for Saturday after the former was a late withdrawal against the Pies while the latter struggled with a back problem a fortnight ago before being subbed off in the third term.
To think those two were the Eagles’ best against Carlton last Saturday, shows the value they’ll add to this side.
And to champion West Coast’s case against Geelong even more, we only need to look back to Round 16 when they were victorious over the Cats by eight points.
Of course, that game was in the familiar surrounds of Subiaco Oval and the Cats were without Joel Selwood (suspension) but there’s some important lessons to come from the game.
Geelong actually had more inside 50s on that day, but West Coast’s defence stood up to it. That defensive strength has been there for all to see in the past two weeks with All-Australian full-back Darren Glass leading the way alongside Shannon Hurn and Eric McKenzie.
If one of the Selwood brothers can get hold of Steve Johnson then that’ll go a long way to limiting the danger.
However, the obvious card the Eagles hold against Geelong is their superior ruck stocks with Cox combining with the unpredictable Nic Naitanui, against Brad Ottens (who was excellent against the Hawks a fortnight ago) and 16-gamer Trent West.
Back in Round 16, West Coast had 12 more hit-outs but just edged the clearances. Converting that ruck dominance into clearances will be a key with Kerr’s gritty determination likely to come to the fore in the finals cauldron. Tackling-machine Scott Selwood would be the ideal match-up for Joel Selwood to help out in this department, except for the supposed psychological brother issue.
Clearances will play a major role into how the Eagles’ forward 50 entries occur. If they are clean they give their tall forwards a chance. If they are under pressure and rushed, that gives Geelong’s superb sweeping defenders such as Harry Taylor and Matthew Scarlett every chance to dominate.
The latter happened against Collingwood, but the Eagles hung in the game thanks to their stingy defence. They can’t afford to rely on that happening again. Having Cox and Kerr fit for the full game will help their cause.
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- AFL, AFL finals, AFL Grand Final 2011, Collingwood Magpies, Geelong Cats
September 22nd 2011 @ 8:39am
The Cattery said | September 22nd 2011 @ 8:39am | Report comment
Recent finals history, and the relative strength of the two top teams, tells us the Collingwood and Geelong are likely to progress to the grand final.
Collingwood probably aren’t demonstrating peak form at the moment, but Hawthorn would still have to produce something extraordinary to get past them.
The Eagles have had one of the very best presses all season, and have two big men capable of overcoming the Cats’ tall timber, although I’m not up withi Cox’s fitness right now. I can see the Eagles pushing the Cats all the way, and it’s worth reminding ourselves that Geelong has never beaten the Eagles in the finals.
However, with the week off, and home ground advantage, and recent good form, you’d have to plonk your hard earned on a Geelong win.
September 22nd 2011 @ 9:21am
gb said | September 22nd 2011 @ 9:21am | Report comment
As a Pies fan, i would hope we can get past the Hawkes this weekend but its far from a done deal. I thought the scoreline over the Eagles somethwat flattered us two weeks ago as we did kick 2 late goals that increased the margin to 20. I can see the Cats getting over the Eagles. Both finals games will be cracking affairs as this year the teams who finished 1 to 4 will be contesting them. You cannot ask for more.
September 22nd 2011 @ 9:23am
Football Fan said | September 22nd 2011 @ 9:23am | Report comment
The Eagles must ‘make the difficult journey east’??? get serious!
September 22nd 2011 @ 10:05am
The Cattery said | September 22nd 2011 @ 10:05am | Report comment
Why? It’s more difficult than the 70km drive down the highway that the Geelong players will take.
September 22nd 2011 @ 11:36am
Football Fan said | September 22nd 2011 @ 11:36am | Report comment
More people die doing that than they do flying from Perth!
September 22nd 2011 @ 10:05am
Bayman said | September 22nd 2011 @ 10:05am | Report comment
Ben,
Someone once said a week was a long time in footy. Given that, it’s difficult to get a handle on the finals results so far other than the obvious. The top four at the start of the finals is the top four half way through. Nothing new there, however,…
As “gb” said, the Collingwood win over the Eagles was harder than the final score suggested. Certainly it would have been encouraging to the likes of Hawthorn and Geelong. The bottom line, though, is that Collingwood got there and had the week off.
The Hawks looked threatening against the Cats for a quarter and a bit but after that, in truth, they were blown away. Certainly injuries did not help but I’m not convinced Buddy staying on would have changed the result. The Cats looked the pick of the top four at that stage with the Eagles earning some credits.
Given that, I expected the Eagles to stitch Carlton pretty comfortably despite the Blues impressive effort earlier against the Bombers. It did not happen. In fact, if Davies(?) had not been such a self-indulgent prat the it might have been the Blues playing Geelong this weekend and not the Eagles. Two goals for the price of one is a rare thing at the best of times. To give it away in a knock-out final, away from home, is committing a football crime of monumental proportions. Perhaps the best thing we can say is that it’s almost certain that Davies has learnt the lesson. Optionally, perhaps he just wanted a drink on Monday instead of training?
Now, if it had been the Blues playing Geelong my instinct tells me that the Cats would have been overwhelming favourites. Given the Perth result I’d suggest the same is true now. So Geelong to win.
The Hawks may well give Collingwood some hurry up but it’s difficult to imagine them actually winning. A lot will depend, as always, on Franklin. Rioli needs to lift (though he was better against the Swans) and the midfield hold their own. In ruck, Jolly has not been as dominant as he was last year and Bailey, I thought, did ok against Mumford who has been in good form. Perhaps that ruck duel is not as one-sided as some may think. The Maggies, though, simply look too good in too many positions (not that positions mean much these days).
So Collingwood and Geelong. The grand final then will be very interesting. Malthouse’ last game in charge, attempting back to back against a team which blitzed them recently. Of course, Port beat Geelong in 2007, at Geelong, but five weeks later were humiliated in the grand final.
As they say, a week is a long time in footy. A month must be a life-time!
September 22nd 2011 @ 10:14am
The Cattery said | September 22nd 2011 @ 10:14am | Report comment
A bit of trivia, Collingwood and Geelong haven’t met in the decider since 1953, when Collingwood won it’s 12th flag, beating Geelong by 12 pts in front of 89k spectatotors.
This overturned the result of the previous year when Geelong won back to back premierships, with a big 46pt win over the pies.
It’s incredible that they haven’t met in a grand final for nearly 60 years, even though has been in 9 (off the top of my head), and Collingwood has been in far too many to count (I’d say around double that number).
September 22nd 2011 @ 10:30am
stabpass said | September 22nd 2011 @ 10:30am | Report comment
IMO it’s Geelongs flag to lose ATM.
Collingwood is the only team that can challenge.
Is anyone seriously suggesting WCE can win, it’s more than possible it will be a very big win to Geelong.
September 22nd 2011 @ 2:54pm
Rusty said | September 22nd 2011 @ 2:54pm | Report comment
Eagles will have to play their A Game away from home and within 48 hours of flying a high altitude long haul flight (sports science says that we are to a disadvantage). It can play a part but we have managed to beat most middle order teams away while keeping teams like Collingwood to a diminishing margin every time we play them.
We are getting better with every game, wether we can get over the line will be another story. But with Kerr and Cox we should give it a red hot crack.
September 22nd 2011 @ 11:38am
Football Fan said | September 22nd 2011 @ 11:38am | Report comment
Eagles will give the Cats a massive scare. Their pressure makes the cats miss targets and fumble and if they can’t snap out of it, there will be issues… The only problem would be that if WCE win, they’ll stagger into a GF and probably get whipped.
Collingwood will SMASH hawthorn, for mine.
September 22nd 2011 @ 12:40pm
Wiggy said | September 22nd 2011 @ 12:40pm | Report comment
I have my fingers crossed we have a 20 year reunion Grand final (Hawks/Eagles) , highly unlikely but you never know?
September 23rd 2011 @ 3:59am
amazonfan said | September 23rd 2011 @ 3:59am | Report comment
That would be fantastic!
I love the Eagles (they are the team I most want to win the flag out of the remaining contenders), and I would love to deny Collingwood a GF place. Plus, I like Hawthorn anyway. Still, it’s unlikely to happen, which is why I’ve tipped Geelong/Collingwood.
September 22nd 2011 @ 1:17pm
The Black Ship said | September 22nd 2011 @ 1:17pm | Report comment
look,i’m sure all the pollster and tipsters and punters will probably be correct re the threads title..i’d love nothing more than the cats to dismantle the pie festival..but the pies will probably hold the tin mug aloft.
however as an eagles fan..i must stick with my outside hopes,and go for the wildcard factor,as stretched as it seems..eagles steal the cats game with audacious endeavour,and youthful zeal,by 11 points.
then hit the magpie wall in the GF!!?…hell, its a beautiful day,why not go all the way – everything goes their way in the GF..the umps,the frees,the crowd(?),the pies have 2 injury breakdowns to KP before the 2nd half,another collapses from OD on leatherpoisoning,yet another gets accidently hit high AND slung tackled to the ground by a nearsighted umpire,seagulls continually divebomb the pies forwardline,a rabid dog runs amok thru the pies bunker,a low flying pelican crashes into the pies coaches box,a very localised earth tremor knocks the pies score posts over – all in all not the pies day..the eagles with exuberance throw the GF cup up in the air but sadly it lands on malty micks head,giving him an epiphany-he leaves footy forever and becomes a male stripper specialising in police and army costumes at old ladies nursing homes.
September 22nd 2011 @ 1:26pm
Searly said | September 22nd 2011 @ 1:26pm | Report comment
Loving your work, Football Fan. As a Pies fan I wish the butterflies in my stomach would listen to more of what you’ve got to say……