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Dan Carter’s unjust extraction from Rugby World Cup 2011 is the fulfillment of Graham Henry’s worst nightmare.
And ours, if you’re a Kiwi or an impartial lover of the XV-man game.
Even the Ministry of Economic Development identified Carter’s absence as the greatest commercial risk for tournament organizers.
But first, let’s spare a thought for the bloke in question.
A quality guy – a brilliant player. None have trained harder and planned more thoroughly towards this particular point in time, poised on the business end of the pinnacle tournament.
But now cruelly deprived. His Rugby World Cup dream in tatters.
The offending body-part; a torn adductor longus tendon in Carter’s groin. The left side. The kicking side. The prolific world-record points scoring side.
So what does it mean for New Zealand’s first XV? A campaign by design, is now by default.
Henry never wanted to call comprehensively on Carter’s cover, Colin Slade. Slade is still in the mental residue of recovery mode from his double-jaw break suffered earlier this year.
His contribution against Canada, a minnow, was fair. His passing was erratic. So was his kicking.
Granted, Wellington’s wind-tunnel is a challenge. But Piri Weepu didn’t have any issues when he took the reins with 30 minutes remaining.
Slade’s vulnerabilities are not in his skill-sets, but his head-space. He’s struggling to find confidence and self-belief.
It is a dangerous space to live in, particularly in the do-or-die stages of the matches that matter. That pressure is compounded with the host nation’s hopes, resting squarely on his shoulders.
Yet the All Blacks selectors have put almost all of their eggs in Slade’s basket. It means that they reckon he is up for it. So Henry has to back him now more than ever.
The saving grace for Slade, and the selectors, is a relatively soft quarter-final against an average Argentina. Assuming Slade makes the starting lineup for that one.
Because he hobbled off in the closing stages against Canada.
Piri Weepu grew quickly in confidence with the 30 minutes given him. Weepu’s edge is his superior temperament and read on the game. For my part, Henry would be wise to back that.
Whoever the selectors go with in the No. 10 jersey, after Argentina our pathway towards the Grand Final will cross Australia or South Africa. Rest assured both nations will be drooling over Dan Carter’s shocking turn of fate.
Can the All Blacks still prevail? Of course they can.
If they do, when they do, it will be a resounding statement to all and sundry, that New Zealand’s first XV is not defined by any individual.
Even though until now, that individual has been the grand master, Dan Carter.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.