How to fix the AFL fixture list
By NeeDeep, 9 Nov 2011 NeeDeep is a Roar Pro
- Tagged:
- AFL, AFL expansion, AFL fixture, conference system
We’ve now, by accident, got the perfect opportunity to sort out the iniquities in the AFL’s annual fixture lottery – 18 teams! Michael DiFabrizio asked the question: why is the AFL protecting Hawthorn?
Every year supporters of all clubs look at Collingwood’s draw and wonder what the guys up at the pointy end of working out the fixture have been smoking…
The travel factor gets debated backwards and forwards with the interstate clubs. Then we have to sort of work the whole thing into roughly 22 weeks, being the traditional number of games in a season dating back to when it was the VFL and we had only 12 teams. Whilst the clubs submit “wish lists”, we will always have a “compromised fixture”.
I’m in favour of the American “conference” system. They have successfully adopted this system across all their sports – football, baseball, basketball etc. Typically, they draw it up on locality, with a bit of rivalry bias thrown in. To me, that sounds like something the AFL should warm to.
But how do we sort out this system to fit the AFL? My suggestion would be three even conferences of six teams. Personally, I also favour splitting the local teams up, so you don’t get more travel in one conference, than the other two. The New York Giants and the New York Jets are in different conferences, as are (were) the LA Raiders and the LA Rams before they moved to Oakland and St. Louis respectively. Hence, West Coast and Fremantle to be split, as well as Adelaide and Port Adelaide, and even Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sydney and the GWS Giants.
If you look at the split up of interstate teams and Melbourne based teams, we have eight and 10. If one of the Melbourne teams was allocated to the “interstate” side of the ledger, we’d have an even nine and nine. I’ve picked out Hawthorn in this exercise (only an example) given they play four games in Tassie each year, at the moment. So, we could then split up the so called interstate teams and Melbourne teams, three each, into each of the three different conferences.
We also know the AFL likes its blockbusters – the Perth derbies, the Adelaide Showdowns and then the ANZAC Day game between Collingwood and Essendon. I don’t think you would lose much if these match ups took place once a year. The added anticipation would certainly result in a packed house every time.
The three conferences I’ve roughly looked at are as follows;
West Coast Fremantle Brisbane
Port Adelaide Adelaide GWS Giants
Sydney Gold Coast Hawthorn
Geelong St. Kilda Collingwood
Western Bulldogs Richmond Carlton
Essendon Melbourne North Melbourne
I’ve tried to split the Melbourne teams geographically, but you could go with any combination, without too many problems. For instance, if the AFL was desperate to have Collingwood and Essendon clash twice each year, then swap Essendon and North Melbourne, etc. You could name each of the conferences after a passed legend of the game – Whitten, Baldock, Jeans, or by any other method that was appropriate.
From there it gets pretty simple. Each season, your first five games are against your conference rivals (except the ANZAC Day round, if necessary), then you play everyone else once, and finally your last five games are back against your conference rivals. End result: 22 games, playing everyone once (17 games) and your conference rivals twice (five games).
The games against non-conference rivals are reversed each year, meaning if you played Brisbane at home this year and Fremantle away, next year you will play Freo at home and Brisbane away. You play your conference rivals home and away each year.
Simple system, which leads to no arguments and a fair draw. The argument about sides not getting two games against Collingwood each year, to pull the big crowds, doesn’t really hold a lot of water, as far as I can see. Certainly, there are other rivalries that will develop within conferences – you only have to look at the NFL’s black and blue division (NFC North), with Chicago, Green Bay, Minnesota and Detroit.
None of these sides likes each other and the “black and blue” refers to the amount of bruising that usually follows a head-to-head confrontation between any of these teams. This reputation has developed over time and I’m sure the AFL will promote and foster similar rivalries in any AFL conference set up.
The biggest problem I can see to be resolved in this concept is the format for the finals. I think you could stick with the “top eight”, which would be more manageable than a nine-team final series. Having said that, anything is possible.
My way of working it out would be to put the “conference” winners straight through to the finals (obviously) with the next best record getting the fourth spot and the double chance. It would be a bit like awarding the top eight sides a seeding position and then playing the finals pretty much exactly the way they play it now.
So, the conference winners would be ranked based on number of wins (premiership points) and then you could either stick to percentages, or perhaps look to the head-to-head outcomes during the year.
Let’s say Geelong, Adelaide and Carlton won their conferences, with Geelong and Adelaide tied on premiership points, one win behind Carlton. Carlton would be seeded No. 1, and then if Adelaide beat Geelong during the season, they would be seeded No. 2, regardless of whether Geelong had superior percentage (as their division may have been weaker over the course of the year). Home ground advantage to the conference winners and on through the finals.
The other big advantage in sticking with the “top 8” is the further expansion of the AFL out to a 20-team competition – which, as sure as night follows day, will happen at some point down the track. You would at that point move to four conferences, each with five teams. You play everyone once (19 games) and your four conference rivals a second time (another four games), resulting in a 23-round season (minimal change). I’m sure the AFL wouldn’t mind an extra round of 10 games!
The top two in each conference through to the finals and so on – conference winners one to four based on records, runners up filling out spots five to eight on a similar basis.
Finally, I would also like to suggest that at some point down the track – be that 10 years, or 50 years – that the grand final has to go on the road. I know many traditionalists and Melbournians will howl me down on this point. But again, you should look at the NFL model. They work it out in advance, by several years, where the Super Bowl will be played.
It is a terrific economic boom to the city hosting it and should not be held in one corner of our nation, if it is truly a national competition. I would also suggest that it would be a sell out every year and probably pre-sold, five years in advance. The AFL could also restrict the ability of a city to host the GF, until they had a stadium of an 80,000-plus capacity, or in 50 years time, 100,000-plus.
Again, spectators will travel – last year’s Super Bowl was between Pittsburgh and Green Bay was played in Dallas, and as per every year, was sold out years ago, as will this year’s in Indianapolis, New Orleans in 2013, Meadowlands, New York in 2014 and Arizona in 2015. I’m sure you could still get a sell out in Brisbane, if they were hosting and it was Port Adelaide and Essendon. Fans will travel for the GF – maybe not next year, or in five years time, but beyond that, who knows.
I live in Perth but follow St. Kilda, and would love to see the greatest game of the year played in the west at some point (hopefully in my lifetime), say between the Saints and the Pies, or Hawks.
I know lots of people in Perth who go to the GF each year, regardless of who is playing, and I’m sure that would be the same in the other capital cities around the country and would even give some Victorians and excuse to get out of town for a change!
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November 9th 2011 @ 7:45am
Jesse G. said | November 9th 2011 @ 7:45am | Report comment
I think you missed one very important aspect of the NFL system which is that a team’s non-division schedule is determined through a combination of rotation (every year each division’s teams play one game against all of the teams in a non-conference division and once each against teams in a division in their conference, the former every three years, the latter every four) and another element that helps to preserve league-wide parody. Specifically, in addition to those non-division teams that a team is due to play every couple of years and teams in their own division, each team, every single year, plays two teams from other division that finished in the same position as them the prior year. In other words, teams that won their division one year are guaranteed to face a harder schedule the next year because they will play two other teams that also won their division the prior year.
November 9th 2011 @ 12:54pm
NeeDeep said | November 9th 2011 @ 12:54pm | Report comment
Hi Jesse,
I’m aware of that fact – teams finishing 3rd, get drawn against other 3rd place finishers in other divisions, to ensure a more even set of fixtures and competitive match ups. However, the NFL is a 32 team competition and they play 16 games in what amounts to a home and away season. Plus, they play the other 3 teams in their division, twice. So, that only leaves 10 games against non-division rivals and 28 other teams to play, which doesn’t fit.
What I’ve proposed, does fit, due to the fact we have a few more weeks and just over half the teams. So, their really isn’t a need at this stage to go to those lengths with the fixturing. On the ohter hand, down the track, your point is very valid.
November 9th 2011 @ 8:04am
The Cattery said | November 9th 2011 @ 8:04am | Report comment
NeeDeep
The 3 conferences of 6 teams fits neatly into 22 rounds, as you’ve said, but you have actually listed 6 conferences of 3 teams – or was I meant to have read that downwards? that was a bit confusing.
In all honesty, it makes sense to me if you embark on this, that you keep the teams West of victoria together, and the four teams North of Victoria together, and you rotate the Victorian teams through those two conferences, with the remaining six victorian teams becoming the 3rd conference.
In reality, you probably prefer to keep Collingwood, Essendon, Carlton, Richmond and Hawthorn in the Victorian conference, meaning the other five get rotated through it and the other two conferences.
If the bulldogs continue to play two matches in Darwin, it might make sense to keep them permanently in the Western conference, and similarly, if Melbourne or richmond continue to play extra games North, they might end up there permanently.
There seems little sense, for instance, in splitting up the Perth teams or Adelaide teams, or even the Sydney and Brisbane teams – you want them playing twice every single year.
November 9th 2011 @ 1:10pm
NeeDeep said | November 9th 2011 @ 1:10pm | Report comment
The big thing to keep in mind is if you want an “uncompromised” fixture, then you need to get rid of all the pre-conceived ideas about who needs to play who, twice every year. If you stick with that concept, you will always have a “comprised” set of fixtures.
The 2 Perth teams and every other interstate team new their would be a considerable amount of travel, every year, when they applied for their club licences. They surely didn’t expect to play every game at home and if they were entering into the “Australian” Football League, that would mean games in Melbourne, Adelaide & Sydney were on the cards – and eventually Brisbane as well. The Melbourne based clubs also knew their would be travel requirements when they stuck out their hands and took a big lick out of the money received from the likes of West Coast and Adelaide and then the other interstate clubs, from the AFL.
If you split teams West and North, then 4 teams thrown in with the WA teams aren’t going to be real happy about flying to Perth twice each year. Brisbane / Gold Coast twice a year may also be an impost, for the Northern conference. Especially if the other conference is based in Melbourne and hardly goes anywhere for the entire year.
Somebody a bit further dwon makes the point that you could keep the one premiership ladder as is and just use this model, effectively to set the fixtures – ie. determine who you play twice the following season. Good point – I agree.
The main thing I was trying to work towards and I feel is the issue at the core, is the “compromised” fixture. The article about why the AFL is protecting Hawthorn was what got me to burst into print. And the simple answer is that the AFL are encouraging the Hawks to play a few games in Tassie, as a possible forerunner to a future expansion team. The pay back is that the AFL will try and give Hawthorn something back in return (although my best mate over here is a mad Hawthorn supporter and he reckons like Jeff Kennett, that the AFL is at them financially with all the Sunday games against interstate teams at the MCG). Then keeping Collingwood in Melbourne and sending the Saints, Bulldogs & Kangaroos all over Australia, results in a loaded set of games.
So, clear the deck, no wish lists and base it on ladder positions, or something along those lines. Problem solvered!
November 9th 2011 @ 8:34am
Lucan said | November 9th 2011 @ 8:34am | Report comment
The Cattery, the conferences listed are meant to appear in columns. I was a bit confused too initially.
NeeDeep, I’ve never been a fan on the conference idea, but the way you have described it has won me over.
November 9th 2011 @ 8:39am
The Cattery said | November 9th 2011 @ 8:39am | Report comment
Thanks Lucan.
I should add, the three-way conference system is a good idea in terms of building a fair draw around it – but I don’t think too many people would be interested in the idea of having physically separated out conferences in the sense that there are three ladders – that’s not on.
November 9th 2011 @ 9:48am
Lucan said | November 9th 2011 @ 9:48am | Report comment
An overall ladder can still be utilised. The only difference is the top 3 on the ladder would be the Conference leaders, positions 4 thru 18 would be no different to how we currently list them.
November 9th 2011 @ 9:51am
The Cattery said | November 9th 2011 @ 9:51am | Report comment
No – that idea will not fly.
November 9th 2011 @ 10:05am
Lucan said | November 9th 2011 @ 10:05am | Report comment
There was a time when 18 against 18 was the only waywe knew footy. Then we introduced the sub, then we went to an interchange bench.
The game was once insular and state based competitons, only crossing borders for representative games, now we have a truly national league played week in and week out.
FInals, well we’ve had a mini-league format for finals, sectionals, a final 4, final 5, final 6, and two versions of a final 8 to decided a champion.
Aussie Rules fans love the tradition, but they’ve proven time and again that they’re a plenty adaptable bunch.
November 9th 2011 @ 10:14am
The Cattery said | November 9th 2011 @ 10:14am | Report comment
I still don’t think think this is going to happen – there will remain one league, one ladder, the quasi-conferences will assist in getting a fairer draw, that’s all. The AFL cannot afford to dabble in any ideas that give the impression to sponsors and broadcasters that there is a premium sub-league, and lesser sub-leagues.
November 9th 2011 @ 10:13am
Matt F said | November 9th 2011 @ 10:13am | Report comment
I’ve always been a bit skeptical of a conference system for AFL, or NRL for that matter, that’s based on geography. It’s fairly easy to divide conferences up in the USA as they generally have no more than 1 or 2 teams per city whereas as you mentioned it will be very difficult to split the Melbourne teams up as there’s no real criteria for which team goes where. You’d also make a lot of fans unhappy by having the interstate teams have rival matches only once per season, every season. In general it might be a bit tedious playing the same teams once and the same teams twice every season forever.
I’ve always been a fan of dividing the teams up into conference systems based on the previous seasons finishing position. teams 9-18 would be placed according to ladder position whilst teams 1-8 would be placed based on where they finished in the finals. Like yours it is in three groups of six teams.
Group A – 1, 4, 7, 10, 13, 16
Group B – 2, 5, 8, 11, 14, 17
Group C – 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18
Like your conference system, teams would play everybody once and then play the teams in their group twice, taking it to 22 rounds. You have a fairly even spread of good and bad teams in each group and, although Group C does seem weaker then Group A, I think the gap of 3 between each team in each group makes it fairly even. It has disadvantages from a commercial perspective as the top teams don’t play each other and no guarantee of rivals meeting twice but I think it’s quite equitable re fairness. It also means that the teams in each conference change every year.
November 9th 2011 @ 10:16am
The Cattery said | November 9th 2011 @ 10:16am | Report comment
I don’t mind this concept – but some flexibility has to be put into to it to make sure the two-team cities (we now have four of them), get to play each other twice per season – that bit is non-negotiable.
November 9th 2011 @ 10:35am
Matt F said | November 9th 2011 @ 10:35am | Report comment
Asi I said it does have significant problems on the commercial side of things. The problem with ensuring interstate teams play each other twice is that it kind of throws the system out of order. Then the issue becomes, if WC get to play Freo twice why can’t Collingwood play Carlton twice? If it’s opened up for one commercial aspect it will soon be opended up to all and then the draw becomes what it is now. It’s difficult to have a draw that is both competitively fair and commercially attractive as 99% of the time they conflict with each other.
Though in a general sense I don’t think the draw makes as big of a difference as is made out. At absolute most a good draw might get you 1-2 more wins and the opposite for a bad draw but in the end the contenders will still be up the top, the also rans will still be 6-10 or so and the no-hopers will still be down the bottom.
November 9th 2011 @ 10:40am
The Cattery said | November 9th 2011 @ 10:40am | Report comment
With the Perth and Brisbane teams in particular, the idea about playing their cross-town rivals is partly to do with commercial advantages, but equally, it’s to do with keeping travel to a minimum. If the Perth and Brisbane teams are playing each other twice, it means 10 interstate trips for both out of 22 rounds, rather than 11 trips (while Melbourne teams are getting 5 trips). It’s an equity issue as well.
With the Sydney teams, let’s be honest, GWS really, really needs to be playing Sydney twice per season – it’s not negotiable.
November 9th 2011 @ 11:02am
Matt F said | November 9th 2011 @ 11:02am | Report comment
As a Swans fan I don’t mind playing GWS twice right now, though with their draft concessions my view might change in 5+ years!
GWS need to play the Swans twice right now but hypothetically if in 10 years Sydney finish 1st and GWS finish 2nd I would hope that both clubs would be able to prosper commercially without playing each other twice.
You make an interesting point re QLD and WA teams and travel issue though with so many teams in Melbourne you will never have travel equality. 5 vs 10 isn’t that different then 5 vs 11 and given the success of WC and Brisbane through their history I don’t think the extra travel hurt them too much. Though that probably goes back to the draw itself not having a significant impact on the end ladder then anything else.
November 9th 2011 @ 10:35am
The Cattery said | November 9th 2011 @ 10:35am | Report comment
Let us work with a real live example, the 2011 season. We’ll take Geelong as supplanting Collingwood in no.1, and put GWS at 18, so we end up with these groupings, using your system initially:
Group A: Geelong, West Coast, Sydney, Bulldogs, Melbourne, Port
Group B: Collingwood, Carlton, Essendon, Freo, Adelaide, Gold Coast
Group C: Hawthorn, St Kilda, North, Richmond, Brisbane, GWS
Straight away, you can see how easy it is to make sure the two-city rivals get to play each other twice, barely affecting the spread of teams as per ladder position.
So straight off lets swap Gold Coast and GWS, positions 17 and 18, no real effect on the system, Gold Coast now grouped with Brisbane in Group C.
Next swap Freo and Sydney, so Freo is now with West Coast in Group A, and Sydney is with GWS in Group B.
Finally swap Melbourne and Adelaide, who finished 13 and 14 respectively.
So we end up with the following groupings:
Group A: Geelong, West Coast, Freo, Bulldogs, Adelaide, Port
Group B: Collingwood, Carlton, Essendon, Sydney, Melbourne, GWS
Group C: Hawthorn, St Kilda, North, Richmond, Brisbane, Gold Coast
In terms of ladder positions, it looks like this:
Group A: 1 – 4 – 10 – 11 – 14 – 16
Group B: 2 – 5 – 7 – 8 – 13 – 18
Group C: 3 – 6 – 9 – 12 – 15 – 17
It’s a good compromise all round. Rivals from two-team cities play each other twice (very important), but there’s still a spread of teams across the ladder from the previous year, and you’d have to say that’s a much, much better spread than waht we are getting this year – you’d be hard pressed to criticise that final spread, even allowing for a bit of tweaking.
November 9th 2011 @ 10:43am
Matt F said | November 9th 2011 @ 10:43am | Report comment
True, it can work, although group A and C have 2 finalists whilst Group B has 4 which seems a bit out. I can see how minimal changes like yours can still work though. I can still see some of the Victorian clubs being up in arms if the interstate clubs can play each other twice but the big malbourne rivals don’t also get that guarantee (though by coincidence Collingwood, Carlton and Essendon are all in the one group based on last years results)
November 9th 2011 @ 11:37am
The Cattery said | November 9th 2011 @ 11:37am | Report comment
Yeh – it was a bit of a conincidence having Carlton, Collingwood and Essendon in the one group! Point taken about group two ending up with 4 finalists, but that includes 7 and 8, and then they’ve got 18th in there as well to offset that.
This is what the numbers add up to:
Group A: 56
Group B: 53
Group C: 62
as opposed to the starting numbers adding up to:
Group A: 51
Group B: 57
Group C: 63
So yes, it’s Group B that has come out be weighted a bit higher than the starting point, but on the flip side, in Group A, Geelong, for example, must travel to Perth twice.
November 9th 2011 @ 10:16am
Ben said | November 9th 2011 @ 10:16am | Report comment
Why can’t there be conferences grouped by teams 1-6,7-12 and 13-18 from the end of the season ladder each year and still keep the ladder as it is.
November 9th 2011 @ 10:37am
The Cattery said | November 9th 2011 @ 10:37am | Report comment
Ben
I’m arguing the same thing – have the conference idea merely for coming up with a fairer draw, but the one ladder system remains unchanged.
November 9th 2011 @ 10:47am
Matt F said | November 9th 2011 @ 10:47am | Report comment
Ben – Wouldn’t having teams 1-6 in the same conference every year be the opposite of a fair draw? The bottoms clubs would get a far easier draw every year wouldn’t they?
November 9th 2011 @ 11:10am
Ben Mitchell said | November 9th 2011 @ 11:10am | Report comment
Well it’s fairer than a bottom team playing a top team isnt it ?
As for the ladder, similar ‘the cattery’ but I would not have the top 3 spots going to conference winners, just leave it as is.
November 9th 2011 @ 11:29am
Matt F said | November 9th 2011 @ 11:29am | Report comment
Wouldn’t it be fairer to have an even spread of top teams and bottom teams in each conference so the strength of each is fairly even across the board rather then weighting it so heavily to favour the bottom teams?
Under that system Group A would have Geelong, Collingwood, Hawthorn, WC, Carlton and Sydney (or St Kilda if your basing it off the H&A ladder rather then finals) whilst Group C would have Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane, PA, GC and GWS. You might as well put Melbourne/Adelaide on +16 points and Sydney at -16 before the season starts.
November 9th 2011 @ 10:36am
Ben Mitchell said | November 9th 2011 @ 10:36am | Report comment
How about 3 changing conferences that are 1-6, 7-12 and 13-18 from the previoys year’s end of season ladder ? Leave the ladder as it is. Maybe each conference can also adopt the NBA marbles in barrel idea for draft picks also.
November 9th 2011 @ 10:57am
Tony said | November 9th 2011 @ 10:57am | Report comment
This is not the USA! We have a population of 22 mill compared with their 350 mill. Our 5 big cities are where the population & major sport is centered. No Green Bay Packers here. Most of our AFL clubs are over 100 years old & have a history & culture US football can only ponder over, based on competing against the other clubs. And NFL teams are all commercial franchises with owner(s). There is enough Amerucanisation of Aussie football!
November 9th 2011 @ 11:45am
The Cattery said | November 9th 2011 @ 11:45am | Report comment
I agree with this, but a few of us are advocating the 3 conferences merely as a means of organising the draw, because it just so happens that if you play the other five teams twice in your conference (10 games), and play the other two conferences once (12 games), it adds up to 22 games, which is the magic number for the AFL, now and well into the foreseeable future.
Once the draw is worked out, I’m in favour of one ladder, the conferences being notional only.
The real question is, ok, how to allocate teams three-ways to get a reasonably even draw.
Matt has suggested using the ladder and getting a even spread of teams, i.e. Group A = 1,4,7,10, etc.
Ben has suggested putting the best placed teams in one conference and the lower placed teams in the next two conferences, i.e. Group A would be positions 1 to 6, etc.
But on top of all of that, I maintain that the two-team city rivals (in Perth, Adelaide, Sydney and Brisbane/GC) must continue playing each other twice per season, i.e. whatever system ends up being used to split up the team, we must make sure that these teams are twinned together at all times – which I think is possible with a tiny bit of tweaking, as I’ve shown in the example above.
November 9th 2011 @ 4:16pm
Ian Whitchurch said | November 9th 2011 @ 4:16pm | Report comment
Tony,
Seriously, Sleepy Hollow are doing a decent imitation of the Titletown, USA. Just saying.
And to all the people calling for NFL style conferences, for a more even competition, I have this to say.
Seattle, Home Field Advantage after 7-9. And to get to that 7, putting us in the playoffs with Home Field Advantage, we got to play pathetic SF, twice, appalling St Louis, twice, and the hapless Cards, twice. Seriously, you’d have to be total crap to get to only seven wins with that sort of schedule.
Once there, cue Beastquake, exit Nawlins stage left.
November 9th 2011 @ 6:13pm
NeeDeep said | November 9th 2011 @ 6:13pm | Report comment
Hi Ian,
Yep – no way that game should have been played in Seatlle. Nawlins had a 10-6 record, from memory and it’s a far cry from the balmy deep South in January, compared to frosty old North-West Washington State. But the NFC West was a really soft division with those other sides you mentioned, not really being up to scratch. Which does highlight the point that you need to get the “strength” of each conference evenly matched.
Another option would be as a few people have pointed out, keep the one ladder and just use “divisions” – positions 1 to 6, 7 to 12, and 13 to 18, to determine the teams you play twice.
That way we can keep Tony happy, by not Americanising the AFL and we can all think positive, happy thoughts, rather than just knocking ideas as they come up.
November 9th 2011 @ 6:27pm
Ian Whitchurch said | November 9th 2011 @ 6:27pm | Report comment
NeeDeep,
Under that system, it’s a horrible disadvantage and deeply unfair for your next years schedule to come 6th rather than 7th.
How about we just dont fix what isnt broken, and accept that Showdowns are Good Things, Q-clashes are Good Things, crowds of 90 000 at the MCG are Good Things, and we will sacrifice some of the alleged purity of the competition to keep those things ?.
November 9th 2011 @ 7:00pm
NeeDeep said | November 9th 2011 @ 7:00pm | Report comment
Hi Ian,
I penned / posed the article, purely of the back of another article, which was asking the question, why it seemed like Hawthorn was being looked after. As mentioned in the article I posted, we always seem to have this discussion after the release of the fixtures – “WOW, look at Collingwoods draw, they hardly leave Melbourne” and “Why are we playing twice in Perth this year, again” and “the draw is biased against the interstate teams” and so on.
I’m just throwing an idea out there, that to me provides a “bit” of a solution. I certainly don’t think I’ve got it all covered, but I’m hoping it’s a step in the right direction. The good thing is, from what I can see, it is a fairly topical matter and a lot of people are giving it a lot of thought (and by the sounds of it, have in the past, as well).
I would encourage people to think “positively” and not just try and shoot holes in ideas because they don’t like change. The AFL was the VFL when I was a kid. With 12 teams, playing games at Moorabbin, Arden Street, Punt Road and Glen Ferrie. Mick Nolan was in the ruck for North and the galloping gas-o-meter ran around in front of the big gas thingy! It’s changed a lot since then and I’m sure it will keep changing.
To me, 6th versus 7th doesn’t mean a huge difference. If you want to win a flag, you have to beat everyone, sooner or later and sometimes twice.
Having said all that, I can certainly see the other side of the argument and I will stick the hand up and say that I’m a firm believer in not fixing what aint broken! But listening to all the noise coming from back there at the minute, something aint right and some fixing may be required.
November 9th 2011 @ 11:29am
JamesP said | November 9th 2011 @ 11:29am | Report comment
Big fan of playing the grand final out of Melbourne down the track. Once the contract to stage all grand finals at the MCG expires, they should look into it.
At present, only Melbourne and Sydney have the stadia to host a GF.
Adelaide is getting a new oval but this would need to be redeveloped further (at least 60k)
Perth is geting 60-70k in a few years
Brisbane could take a lot longer – I think the GABBA has reached its maximum size of just over 40k.
November 9th 2011 @ 6:24pm
NeeDeep said | November 9th 2011 @ 6:24pm | Report comment
Hey James,
I reckon most cities would soon get their act together if they realised the chance of hosting an AFL GF was available to them, if they had the stadium to put it on! I know they’d quickly re-think the current plan to build a 65,000-70,000 stadium and shoot for something more like 75,000-80,000. Adelaide as you say are also contemplating a new arena – be that an upgrade of the Adelaide Oval, or a new stadium all together. Brisbane would get something on the drawing board pretty quickly – Queensland hates being left out of anything. So, construction jobs for everyone – just for a start.
Then you would find people would be buying tickets to the GF a year in advance, if they know it’s coming to their home town and you’ll have other people travelling and then the supporters of the clubs involved would snap up the rest. A few years down the track, it would probably be sold out before the season starts – let’s hope not, because it would be a real tragedy for let’s say a Bulldogs (Footscray) or Richmond fan if they made the GF but they couldn’t get a ticket. Maybe the AFL could hold of selling (some of) the tickets until late in the season.
It would be a fantastic shot in the arm for any cities local economy, to host the GF in any given year and a roster works for most people and sports.
November 9th 2011 @ 6:41pm
Ian Whitchurch said | November 9th 2011 @ 6:41pm | Report comment
NeeDeep,
So you cripple your economy all the time with funding a too-big stadium for the one year in ten you get an AFL grand final, plus perhaps a rugby Test, a Soccerroos game or an Origin game ?
November 9th 2011 @ 7:06pm
NeeDeep said | November 9th 2011 @ 7:06pm | Report comment
Huh?
Cripple your economy by commissioning works that provide jobs?
Perth is already committed to a new stadium of 65,000 to 70,000 people and Adelaide is looking at revamping the Adelaide Oval, probably to a similar capacity. They’ve been talking about a new stadium in Brisbane as well.
So, it will happen and these stadiums are alrady pretty well a done deal.
How they are used in the future will be up to the local authorites.
Do you feel that only Melbourne and Sydney deserve big stadiums, because of population size? I think you’ll find Perth is catching up fast and econimically, WA can certainly afford the coin.
November 10th 2011 @ 5:36am
Ian Whitchurch said | November 10th 2011 @ 5:36am | Report comment
NeeDeep,
Im as much part of Krugman’s Army as the next Keynesian who has read Joan Robinson, and I’d build a stadium for the Bombers in front of a bunch of bombers, but footy stadiums arent my first choice of an infrastructure investments.
If new stadium is such a great idea on it’s merits, then let the AFL pay for it – and I think you’ll find they are more interested in boutique 20-25 000 person stadiums where they control the advertising and corporate boxes than a series of replacements for the MCG, so they can get the 90 000 crowd to a Grand Final they can get already.
November 10th 2011 @ 1:33pm
NeeDeep said | November 10th 2011 @ 1:33pm | Report comment
Hi Ian,
I actually don’t mind the idea of the smaller boutique stadiums, either. I’m in Perth and certainly, I can see Fremantle playing in Fremantle, at a restored Fremantle Oval, with a 30,000 capacity, in years to come. It has worked very nicely at Geelong and I’m sure the AFL will be pleased with the future prospects for Metricon and maybe even a West Sydney venue, down the track. But, this is a whole other topic.
The stadiums I’ve mentioned are already laid down (they’re looking for the sight in Perth, now) and I’m sure the AFL will be tipping in some support money for the construction, etc. They’re not building these venues for soccer games, or one off concerts. The best chance of filling them on a regular basis is with the AFL. And yes, they can get 90K to the MCG for the GF – but I’m talking about the other states and cities, getting a fair suck of the sav as well!
The other infrastructure is in the hands of the governments and in this state, they have put off the stadium for the past 3 or 4 years, because of the need for a new hospital, better education, roads etc. Having done those things, it is now time for an entertainment venue – which is going to happen in the next 3 to 5 years. I’m sure the money in the West won’t run out in the meantime.
November 9th 2011 @ 2:00pm
Brian said | November 9th 2011 @ 2:00pm | Report comment
The conferences will not work – take any example above the same Vic team which is already playing WC away now has to play Freo away too, hardly fair.
In reality why not jst have an even draw Rounds 1-17 than base the last 5 rounds on the existing ladder
Teams 1-6 playoff for Finals position
Teams 7-12 playoff to make Finals
Teams 13-18 playoff for draft picks
Finally why would you pick Hawthorn to join the interstate teams. Wouldn’t the most logical 2 conference split be to take Geelong. Geelong is actually not a suburb of Melbourne.
November 9th 2011 @ 2:44pm
The Cattery said | November 9th 2011 @ 2:44pm | Report comment
Brian
every Victorian team would have to make a minimum of 4 or 5 interstate trips, for some teams, that will mean two trips to Perth, but that’s no bigger disadvantage than Perth and Freo having to travel every second week.
November 9th 2011 @ 3:40pm
Football United said | November 9th 2011 @ 3:40pm | Report comment
sorry but stopped reading at conferences. you cannot have a fair and equal fixture and conferences, they are mutually exclusive. The Americans only have them simply to maximise profits or cut losses, they pay little attention to equality. If you want a fair fixture then you play everyone once or twice. That means either bite the bullet and play 17 H/A games (over demetriou’s dead body), add more teams till it’s financially viable to play everyone once or stop the bs about player fatigue and play everyone twice with an emphasis on bigger squads and player rotation.
November 9th 2011 @ 4:16pm
amazonfan said | November 9th 2011 @ 4:16pm | Report comment
Teams can’t play each other twice, and it’s not just because of ‘bs about player fatigue.’ Yes, players do not want to play more games (they are very clear on that), but also the AFL doesn’t have access to the grounds for a longer enough period of time to enable each team to play another team twice.
November 9th 2011 @ 3:58pm
mds1970 said | November 9th 2011 @ 3:58pm | Report comment
My way of doing a conference system would be that each team gets a ranking based on last year’s final position (winner = 1, runner up =2, wooden spoon =18 etc). From there, the three conferences would be selected with ideally the total for each conference being 57 but a tolerance of 54 to 60 for each.
That would keep all groups reasonably even, while still allowing the AFL to play blockbusters and local derbies twice.
But the only purpose of conferences in my system is to allocate seedings for which clubs play twice. There would be one ladder only, same as now.
November 9th 2011 @ 4:08pm
The Cattery said | November 9th 2011 @ 4:08pm | Report comment
Good way of going about it, agree 100%.
November 9th 2011 @ 4:46pm
The Cattery said | November 9th 2011 @ 4:46pm | Report comment
Although I should add that it might be a tad optimistic making it fit within a band of 54 to 60, might have to accept that the tolerance is likely to be 51 to 63, using the example above, where I ended up with the groups adding up to 56, 53 and 62, after making allowances for local derbies, you might have to accept that that’s the very best outcome you’re going to get. Then again….
Let us do this example again, but without starting by ladder positions first, rather, let’s start splitting the conferences focusing first on the four sets of derbies we must have. Of course, four derbies into 3 conferences does not go, so let’s put the Perth teams on their own, the Qld teams on their own, and put the Sydney and Adelaide teams in the same conference (representing the quickest trips from Melbourne):
Group A: West Coast, Freo
Group B: Brisbane, Gold Coast
Group C: Sydney, Adelaide, Port, GWS
numbers so far:
Group A: 4 + 11 = 15
Group B: 15 + 17 = 32
Group C: 7, 14, 16 + 18 = 55
We can see straight away that Group C is already up to the desired average, so let’s plonk Collingwood and Carlton (preferable to Geelong or Hawthorn), which adds 2+5 giving 62 in total.
Similarly, Group B needs to spread 4 teams over 25 points, so let’s add Geelong, Hawthorn, North and bulldogs, that’s 1 + 3 + 9 + 10, giving an extra 23 points, or 55 points in total.
The rest should now add up to 54 points, i.e. St Kilda (6), Essendon (8), Richmond (12), Melbourne (13), or and extra 39 pts plus the starting 15 pts gives us 54 pts.
So we end up with:
Group A: West Coast (4), St Kilda (6), Essendon (8), Freo (11), Richmond (12), Melbourne (13) = 54 points
Group B: Geelong (1), Hawthorn (3), North (9), Bulldogs (10), Brisbane (15), Gold Coast (17) = 55 points
Group C: Collingwood (2), Carlton (5), Sydney (7), Adelaide (14), Port (16), GWS (18) = 62 points
There, I’ve done that in five minutes, made sure each conference contains twinned rivalries, but allowed a bit of spread depending on where teams finished up last season.
You’ll note that there are two teams from the top 6 spread across each of the conferences. You could probaly take Richmond and Melbourne out of Group A, and swap them with Adelaide and Port in Group C, and even out the numbers even more, lets try that:
Group A: West Coast (4), St Kilda (6), Essendon (8), Freo (11), Adelaide (14), Port (16) = 59 points
Group B: Geelong (1), Hawthorn (3), North (9), Bulldogs (10), Brisbane (15), Gold Coast (17) = 55 points
Group C: Collingwood (2), Carlton (5), Sydney (7), Melbourne (12), Richmond (13), GWS (18) = 57 points
How’s that! now you have two teams from the middle six in each of the three conferences, plus the three bottom teams are evenly spread across the three conferences – almost the pefect draw!
And I didn’t even try too hard.
November 9th 2011 @ 4:51pm
The Cattery said | November 9th 2011 @ 4:51pm | Report comment
It just occurred to me that you could swap Essendon and bulldogs above and end up with a perfect 57 pts acros the three conferences – so mds may have been right the first time round, a range of 54 to 60 pts is possible and still achieve everything you want to achieve.
November 9th 2011 @ 4:53pm
The Cattery said | November 9th 2011 @ 4:53pm | Report comment
Sorry – take that back – I’ve got my maths wrong – you can’t swap Essendon and bulldogs, but you could swap St Kilda and Hawthorn – although I avoided that because the Perth teams don’t like going to Lonnie, which I reckon is fair enough.
November 9th 2011 @ 9:44pm
mds1970 said | November 9th 2011 @ 9:44pm | Report comment
As you saw when you tried working it out, it’s not hard to do. But it ensures the draw is as even as it can be, while at the same time maximising attendances and blockbuster clashes.
November 10th 2011 @ 6:02pm
Brian said | November 10th 2011 @ 6:02pm | Report comment
The AFL would never allow a syatem where 1-3 don’t play each other twice the next season. Coll beat Carlton in the GF and then play once the next year? What if Essendon come 3rd. Not only no blockbusters but none in the precise years the two teams are even.
Take the last 5 years no Geelong playing Hawthorn twice – except where Hawthorn was no good the prior year!
November 10th 2011 @ 11:11pm
The Cattery said | November 10th 2011 @ 11:11pm | Report comment
Good point – but once you have a set of criteria, and aim to get each conference as close as possible to totalling 57 pts, it’s all doable.
Of course in those cases where two big Vic teams are in the top 3, and end up in the same conference, it does mean that to counterbalance that it means the reamining 4 teams must average a 13.5 finish, meaning you’re probably getting two teams in the bottom 3, and further teams around 10 and 11, which will also probably receive howls of protests (especially if collingwood is involved)