Queensland Reds player Digby Ioane (left) wrestles with Crusaders player Sonny Bill Williams (right). AAP Image/Dave Hunt
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With the 2011 international season coming to a close and the trophy cabinet a little plumper than this time last year, we can now start to look forward to the 2012 Super Rugby season.
In 2011 the Australian teams spread themselves from one side of Super Rugby ladder to the other, with the Queensland reds winning their first ever title and the Melbourne Rebels picking up the wooden spoon in their inaugural season.
The Waratahs, Force and Brumbies finished fifth, 12th and 13th respectively.
This year looks to be a much tighter race between the five Australian teams, with the Rebels picking up some very handy acquisitions and the Queensland Reds taking on the mountainous task of protecting their title without Quade Cooper for the first half of the season.
The 2012 season will be without some stalwarts of Australian rugby, with Phil Waugh, Al Baxter, Matt Dunning, and Matt Giteau either retiring or being lured by a wallet full of Euros.
This season has also seen the squads reduced to a 30-man group, with five players included in the extended playing squad. This seems like a difficult ask of teams with the new longer Super format in place, and coming off the back of a very lengthy international season.
I suspect this may haunt a few teams in the later part of the season.
The only way to know what the 2012 season holds for Australia is to dissect each team and their title chances.
Brumbies
1. B Alexander
2. S Moore
3. D Palmer
4. L Power
5. P Kimlin
6. B Mowen
7. C Fiangaa
8. S Hoiles
9. I Prior
10. M Toouma
11. H Speight
12. C Lealiifano
13. J Tomane
14. P McCabe
15. C Crawford
16. S Silvia
17. J Yanuyanutawa
18. S Carter
19. F Auelua
20. N White
21. Z Holmes
22. A Smith
Other Squad
23. J Owen
24. B Hand
25. I Vaea
26. M Hooper
27. R Coleman
28. T Cox
29. K Situai
30. T Kuridrani
EPS
31. J Mogg
32. D Sigg
33. S Sio
34. S Fardy
35. R Murphy
In
L Power, B Mowen, I Prior, J Tomane, S Silvia, Z Holmes, T Cox, K Situai, T Kuridrani
Out
S Ma’Afu, M Chisholm, R Elsom, J Salvi, H Edmonds, M Chapman, P Phibbs, J Valentine, M Giteau, A Ashley Cooper, F Fainifo
Season chances
The Brumbies have brought together a team of young entertainers and if this squad is maintained for a few years, they could become a team in the mould of the current Reds. However, this year will be seen as a rebuilding year and they will upset a few teams, but struggle for consistency. The good news in that Jake White has signed for four years and can bring the Brumbies back to their former glory.
Key Player
Stephen Moore, with David Pocock, is the current form player of the Wallabies pack and will need to emulate his current form if he is to guide this inexperienced Brumbies team.
Up and Comer
Look out for Zack Holmes if he gets his chance this season. In a team with ample skilled young 10s, Holmes is looking the third choice option, however his footwork and ball skills gives him the potential to cement the 10 jersey for years to come. Also young Silvia is a very skilful hooker that will get much better opportunities behind Moore, than previously at the Force.
Best Buy
In a year that can only be described as ‘cost saving’, the Brumbies’ best buy would be young halfback Ian Prior. The understudy to Will Genia, Prior did not look out of place coming off the bench in a team of champions. However, if you include everything that the Brumbies have spent money on for this season, Jake White was the best signing by far. Also keep an eye out for Joseph Tomane, a bustling centre with good pace off the mark.
Biggest Loss
Where to star t… Brumbies have lost some big names and key personnel during the off season, but I don’t feel their biggest loss is Giteau or Elsom, as these two were not what was needed right now, as players or mentors. Ashley-Cooper is also a big name loss, but he seems to perform much better at international level.
The loss of Chisholm is more significant, as he has left a gap in the middle of the scrum. With Kimlin so injury prone and Ben Hand a non-event, the Brumbies will need Leon Power or Sam Carter to make a rapid rise.
Predicted Finish – Conference 5th – Overall 12th
Waratahs
1. B Robinson
2. T Poluta Nau
3. S Kepu
4. S Timani
5. D Vickerman
6. R Elsom
7. C Alcock
8. W Palu
9. S Pretorius
10. B Barnes
11. D Mitchell
12. T Carter
13. R Horne
14. L Turner
15. A Ashley Cooper
16. S Fitzpatrick
17. J Tilse
18. K Douglas
19. D Dennis
20. B McKibbin
21. D Halangahu
22. T Kingston
Other Squad
23. J Ulugia
24. J Ryan
25. G Peterson
26. P McCutheon
27. D Mumm
28. B Karauria-Henry
29. B Foley
30. S Pakalani
EPS
31. T Metuisela
32. G Hart
33. L Timani
34. L Taukeiaho
35. N Trist
In
G Peterson, R Elsom, S Pretorius, A Ashley Cooper, B Foley
Out
A Baxter, P Waugh, B Mowen, S Anesi, R Cross, L Burgess, L Holmes, L McCaffrey, P O’Conner
Season chances
The Waratahs have lost some big names to retirement or overseas offers, but I do not see any of these changes as negative. The Waratahs are in need of a few drastic changes if they are going to shed their underachievement.
Key Player
How Berrick Barnes performs this year and his ability to stay fit will be the key factor for the Waratahs. He has taken his game to a new level following his recovery from footballer’s migraine and will need to maintain that if the Waratahs are a chance of making the finals.
Up and Comer
The retirement of Phil Waugh has sparked some interest with the Tah’s again and they now might actually have a chance of breaking their poor finals form. Despite being behind McCutheon in the pecking order, Chris Alcock is the perfect man to take the 7 jersey, tough, busy and a strong ball runner.
Best buy
Sarel Pretorious, a great replacement for the enthusiastic Luke Burgess. His ability to spot a gap and create something out of nothing is critical for a team with so many conservative players.
Biggest Loss
Every loss has been covered well. Plenty of ready players behind Baxter, Waugh, Cross and Mowen. Losing both Luke Burgess and Josh Holmes in the same year will be the biggest loss for the Waratahs over the course of the season. They also have no notable captain to replace Waugh, and who they select will be the deciding factor of their season. With a full strength squad, Mumm should not make the 22 and Elsom was not seen as a leader in his time as Wallabies captain.
Predicted Finish – Conference 2nd – Overall 4th
Force
1. S Ma’Afu
2. N Charles
3. P Cowan
4. N Sharpe
5. T Lynn
6. M Hodgson
7. D Pocock
8. B McCalman
9. B Sheenan
10. W Ripia
11. N Cummings
12. W Stanley
13. W Tupou
14. N Nalaga
15. C Sheppherd
16. B Whitaker
17. K Longbottom
18. S Wykes
19. R Brown
20. J Turner
21. G Fairbanks
22. P Dellit
Other Squad
23. T Faulkner
24. P Battye
25. L McCaffrey
26. J Stannard
27. A Mafi
28. J Rapana
29. R Sidey
30. B Seymour
EPS
31. Kyle Godwin
32. Samu Wara
33. Elvis Taione
34. Angus Cottrell
35. Salesi Manu
In
S Ma’Afu, T Lynn, W Stanley, W Tupou, N Nalaga, L McCaffrey, B Seymour
Out
P Alo-Emile, M Dunning, C Ah-Nau, B Fairbrother, J O’Conner, D Smith, S Hunt, J Jenkins, M Swanepool, M Inman, T Postal, K Godwin, T Hockings
Season chances
The Force look more likely now to live up to their name than they have since their inception. The team seems strong across the park, with good depth, which is critical in the new format. Some interesting recruiting, while maintaining a strong core of players. However, I worry the halves will be the undoing of the Force. Ripia has failed to impress and there does not seem to be any strong back up.
Key Player
David Pocock. In what would seem the last year of his apprenticeship under Sharpe before taking the captaincy, Pocock will need to lead from the front and inspire a developing team.
Up and Comer
I labelled young Justin Turner in 2011, but due to injury, he didn’t take the field. Hopefully this year he can prove himself and take the starting halfback position. Turner plays well above his weight and beyond his years in terms of decision making. Also look out for Lachlan McCaffrey if he gets a shot in a strong backrow.
Best buy
Big Will Tupou is the most interesting signing and has the chance to be a revelation in union. If he takes to the game, Tupou might even have the opportunity to stake his claim nationally, with the Wallabies currently lacking a large attacking centre.
Biggest Loss
The loss of James O’Connor and his ‘brand’ creates the biggest gap in the Force’s line up. His ability to cover multiple positions and kicking ability will be missed.
Predicted Finish – Conference 3rd – Overall 8th
Reds
1. B Daley
2. S Fiangaa
3. J Slipper
4. R Simmons
5. J Horwill
6. S Higgimbotham
7. B Robinson
8. R Samo
9. W Genia
10. Q Cooper
11. D Ioane
12. B Tapuai
13. A Fiangaa
14. R Davies
15. L Morahan
16. J Hanson
17. L Holmes
18. A Wallace Harrison
19. J Schatz
20. B Lucas
21. M Harris
22. P Hynes
Other Squad
23. G Shepherdson
24. V Humpries
25. D McDuling
26. E Quirk
27. L Gill
28. J Lance
29. D Shipperly
30. C Feauai-Sautia
31. A Toua
EPS
31. A Anae
32. U Seuteni
33. D Murphy
34. K Davis
35. N Frisby
In
J Lance, A Toua, C Feauai-Sautia, D McDluing
Out
L Tomiki, A Shaw, L Houston, I Prior, K Situai, W Chambers
Season chances
Link has created the strongest Australian team and culture since the Brumbies of the late 90s, managing to maintain a strong unit of players and the invaluable lessons learnt by the members of the Wallabies.
Key Player
With Quade likely to miss most of the season added pressure will fall on Genia. The expectation will be to make a strong combination with a new 10 and guide his team around the park with greater authority. I suspect he will be up to the challenge and will find new facets of his game.
Up and Comer
Ben Tapuai was the silent saviour for the Reds in 2011. Harris shone in the 12 position, but was cut down with injury, and without Chambers in form, this left a huge gap in midfield. Tapuai stepped up, made the 12 position his own and matched it with the likes of O’Connor and Sonny Bill Williams.
Best buy
As they managed to maintain most of their premiership winning squad, they have focused on retaining junior squad members and obtaining some young talent. Chris Feauai-Sautia is said to be an extremely gifted outside back and has been snapped up. At the age of 17, Chris has just completed his third year of Australian Schoolboys rugby and was a standout for Australia.
Biggest Loss
The young talents of Prior and Situai are probably the biggest losses for a team that kept a stable roster for 2012. However, I do not see these losses interrupting the Reds season.
Predicted Finish – Conference 1st – Overall 2nd
Rebels
1. L Weeks
2. A Frier
3. R Blake
4. H Pyle
5. A Campbell
6. J Saffy
7. M Lipman
8. G Delve
9. N Phipps
10. D Cipriani
11. C Vuna
12. J O’Conner
13. S Mortlock
14. M Gerrard
15. K Beale
16. G Robinson
17. N Henderson
18. A Byrnes
19. T Chamberlain
20. R Kingi
21. J Huxley
22. L Johannson
Other members
23. H Tessman
24. P Alo-Emile
25. L Jones
26. J King
27. T Davidson
28. L Mitchell
29. J Hilgendorf
30. M Inman
EPS
31. E Aholelei
32. L Holmes
33. I Mosese
34. C Neville
35. N Stirzaker
In
P Alo-Emile, J O’Conner, K Beale, L Johannson, J King, M Inman
Out
G Sommerville, H MacDonald, K O’Neill, A Taumopeau, L Rooney, S Cordingly, J Du Plessis, P Betham
Season chances
The Rebels have recruited some big names in the off-season and look to turn their fortunes around in 2012. Unfortunately I do not think they have the pack up front that will give their talented backs the time they need to dominate games. Will improve significantly on their win/loss ratio this year.
Key Player
Gareth Delve is the type of player that can inspire a team and he will need to lead this pack if the Rebels are going to be any chance of making the finals. Delve was the best of the Rebels in 2011 and I think he will go even further to prove his worth this year.
Up and Comer
Paul Alo-Emile has not had any game time, but has proved his worth in the Junior Wallabies system. I suspect he will fight his way into the 22 at some stage during the season and at only 19 he has a bright future ahead of him.
Best buy
Take your pick of two of the biggest names in Australian Rugby. O’Connor and Beale have everything going for them and if utilised properly can turn the Rebels’ fortunes around.
Biggest Loss
Yoda brought the force to the Rebels in many ways. He offered leadership, stability up front and the gained the admiration of the Rebels Army. Sommerville will be greatly missed on the field. However, there are noises that he will join the coaching staff in 2012.
Predicted Finish – Conference 4th – 11th.
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November 18th 2011 @ 8:47am
Will Sinclair said | November 18th 2011 @ 8:47am | Report comment
I like the Waratahs to top the Australian conference, and I’ll certainly be backing them to do so.
They came within a whisker of doing a clean sweep of the Australian teams (home and away) last season, with only a narrow (some would say unlucky) loss to the eventual champions up in Brisbane. Considering the number of key injuries they suffered, that was an extraordinary effort.
I think the Waratahs scrum will be dominant against the other Australian teams, and (once Vickerman is back particularly) they will boast a far more physical and fearsome pack than anyone else in the country.
The backline – boasting Pretorius (SA player of the season last year), Barnes, Mitchell, Turner, Horne and Ashley-Cooper is well placed to take advantage of the good, front foot ball the Waratahs pack should provide.
The one big issue (and it’s the same for all the Aussie teams) is injuries. Another bad season and none of the above will matter. But if they can keep key personnel fit, I like the Waratahs to win the Australian Conference and secure a home final.
From there… who knows?
November 18th 2011 @ 8:53am
Will Sinclair said | November 18th 2011 @ 8:53am | Report comment
Just been back and checked the Waratahs’ 2011 results, and they’re better than I remember!
The disappointing loss to the Cheetahs sticks in the memory, for all the wrong reasons.
But other than that, they only lost to the Crusaders in Nelson, the Reds in Brisbane (by 4 points), the Sharks in Durban (by 5 points) and the Bulls in Pretoria (by 7 points).
It’s hardly a terrible season, especially when you consider the likes of TPN, Waugh, Barnes, Horne, Palu and Mitchell (among many others) were missing for large parts of the season.
Seriously – get on them to top the Aussie conference. You’ll get $4.00 or so I reckon, and that looks a nice bet to me.
November 18th 2011 @ 9:27am
Goose Step said | November 18th 2011 @ 9:27am | Report comment
You could be right Will. My only concern is most of the people you mentioned with injuries are notorious for breaking down. TPN, Palu and Horne need to have a good run this year. But the one thing I like about the Tahs is the depth they have been building over the past few years
November 18th 2011 @ 9:08pm
danisrob said | November 18th 2011 @ 9:08pm | Report comment
No way you will get $4. On the NZ Tab they are third favourites to win the whole competition at $7 with Reds at $6.
November 20th 2011 @ 2:40am
Mario said | November 20th 2011 @ 2:40am | Report comment
They also lost to the Blues….twice.
November 18th 2011 @ 9:55am
Brett McKay said | November 18th 2011 @ 9:55am | Report comment
Goose, nice preview, but two questions: isn’t Ryan Cross’ French stint only until the end of 2011 (RWC cover only) and he’ll be back in Sydney by the start of the SR season? And has the Cooper Vuna situation being resolved, at one staged he had walked away for the Rebels?
Also, I can’t see Pat McCabe spending much time on the Brumbies wing this year, reckon he’ll be between 13 and 15 for most of the season..
November 18th 2011 @ 11:05am
Goose Step said | November 18th 2011 @ 11:05am | Report comment
I wasn’t aware Cross was returning, I did not see him named in the squad.
Last I heard Rebels said they expected Vuna to turn up, so I named him… But I suspect he will be released.
Yeah I was struggling with naming the brumbies side. I do hope McCabe is played a little further away from the action though (I do not think he is a 12, as he doesn’t have the offloading game that so many 12′s have), 13 would be suitable.
November 18th 2011 @ 11:16am
Brett McKay said | November 18th 2011 @ 11:16am | Report comment
you’re right Goose, Cross isn’t listed on the Tahs’ site – I recall him being signed as RWC cover initially, so perhaps it’s been extended since then. I stand corrected..
November 19th 2011 @ 9:18am
p.Tah said | November 19th 2011 @ 9:18am | Report comment
I saw Cross walking around the Rocks yesterday afternoon. When is he off to France?
November 18th 2011 @ 10:32am
sheek said | November 18th 2011 @ 10:32am | Report comment
Crickey, this is a very early review for 2012…..!
November 18th 2011 @ 10:44am
kingplaymaker said | November 18th 2011 @ 10:44am | Report comment
Very handsome article Goose.
You seem to identify a number of very talented young players who may come through. The ARU’s policy in recent years has been to focus on buying talent as young as possible, so it will be interesting to see if these players come through in greater quantities of talent than older generations.
November 18th 2011 @ 11:11am
Goose Step said | November 18th 2011 @ 11:11am | Report comment
Thanks KPM
That is one of the most exciting things about the upcoming season. Link has already spoke of using some of his talent fresh out of school.
Also for those outside of the ACT, it is exciting to note that the wise Jake White has assigned Brumbies players to the local ACT comp. This will greatly improve the local spectacle and help produce local talent.
November 18th 2011 @ 11:32am
kingplaymaker said | November 18th 2011 @ 11:32am | Report comment
They do indeed seem to be younger than ever: hopefully now with more places across more teams we will see more talent that got lost earlier or went to league. Also, it’s probably time that Western Australia will start to develop more and more players, and of course any in Melbourne will be snapped up more easily. A shame Adelaide is left out.
November 18th 2011 @ 11:11am
Wawnout said | November 18th 2011 @ 11:11am | Report comment
Not a West Australian are you Goose? Or more specifically a Soaks man. Four of your Up and Comers are former Soaks players – Zack Holmes, Siliva, Justin Turner and Paul Alo-Emile. Agree with all of them BTW and particularly Justin Turner. Wallaby in waiting if ever I saw one.
November 18th 2011 @ 3:49pm
formeropenside said | November 18th 2011 @ 3:49pm | Report comment
PAE is a Sunnybank boy from Qld actually.
November 18th 2011 @ 7:34pm
Wawnout said | November 18th 2011 @ 7:34pm | Report comment
And Siliva was originally from Melbourne I think FOS. I wasn’t claiming them (not entirely anyway) Just mentioning they all played for the same WA club and proud of whatever part that has played in their development.
November 18th 2011 @ 11:50am
Goose Step said | November 18th 2011 @ 11:50am | Report comment
Actually I am a Capital Teritorian, I just liked the style of the up & comers mentioned, from under 20′s games, Shute shield etc.
Agreed about Turner, looking forwarding to seeing him get a run this year.
November 18th 2011 @ 12:30pm
sheek said | November 18th 2011 @ 12:30pm | Report comment
Goose Step,
My apologies for going off on a tangent here, but since the Brumbies now incorporate the BOTH the ACT, PLUS Southern Inland of NSW (effectively Southern NSW), & assuming the Australian super rugby teams will be provinces for some time to come, might the Brumbies consider another name for their province, other than Australian Capital Territory?
My suggestion, having rummaged through a couple of possibilities, is….. (drum roll) ….. MONARO.
Can anyone better this??? It’s neither ACT, nor Riverina, nor Bidgee (without the Murrum), nor Southern Cross, nor High Country, but seems to incorporate all of them.
Keeping in mind also, rugby league league had a country group based out of Canberra called Monaro.
And on another note, the Australian super rugby teams should proudly embrace their provincial names:
MONARO (or other) Brumbies
NEW SOUTH WALES Waratahs
QUEENSLAND Reds
VICTORIA Rebels
WESTERN AUSTRALIA Force
November 18th 2011 @ 12:38pm
King of the Gorgonites said | November 18th 2011 @ 12:38pm | Report comment
What about Eden – Monaro Brumbies.
The success of the Brumbies (or lack thereof) would have a direct correlation with the sucess of the Wallabies.
November 18th 2011 @ 12:55pm
Wylie said | November 18th 2011 @ 12:55pm | Report comment
They aren’t the ACT Brumbies – they are just the Brumbies. They changed the name a few years ago so no need to change anything.
November 18th 2011 @ 1:09pm
Damage said | November 18th 2011 @ 1:09pm | Report comment
I was initally dissapointed with the removal of ‘ACT’ from the Brumbies title. However, given the region they cover I would be happy with the Monaro Brumbies. I don’t think we should shy away from using the provinical names, it gives that feel that they are representing the people of the area, not just a franchise. South African teams have done this and it just doesn’t sound right.
November 19th 2011 @ 1:25am
Football United said | November 19th 2011 @ 1:25am | Report comment
i agree. we have bloody state boundaries these teams are limited by, why can’t we have them in the name? stupid franchise names are so inpersonal, how does the aru ever think true tribalism will grow when people are being told they can’t identify with their state team but rather a franchise with a silly name.
November 19th 2011 @ 8:26am
Bakkies said | November 19th 2011 @ 8:26am | Report comment
Would have preferred that the Rebels were called Victoria rather than Melbourne
November 18th 2011 @ 12:31pm
King of the Gorgonites said | November 18th 2011 @ 12:31pm | Report comment
what abotu Stannard as the force starting 10? he was outstanding in the 2nd half of this season.
November 18th 2011 @ 1:02pm
Damage said | November 18th 2011 @ 1:02pm | Report comment
Good point KotG
I suspect if he doesn’t suffer the second year blues (i know it is not technically his second year of Superugby, but really last year was the first year he got regular starts) and Ripia doesn’t pull his finger out, he will likely take the 10 position.
November 23rd 2011 @ 5:57pm
Big Steve said | November 23rd 2011 @ 5:57pm | Report comment
Agreed COG that was one of my notes from Gooses teams. Thought stannard was much better than Ripia last year.
November 18th 2011 @ 12:39pm
King of the Gorgonites said | November 18th 2011 @ 12:39pm | Report comment
Very comprehensive article. Im exctied already for the 2012 SR season!
November 18th 2011 @ 1:20pm
The Jackal said | November 18th 2011 @ 1:20pm | Report comment
Goose, this article has been extremely insightful. I can’t wait to refer to it all season next year and will be the first to congratulate you when your predictions eventuate.
November 18th 2011 @ 2:41pm
Goose Step (Formerly Damage) said | November 18th 2011 @ 2:41pm | Report comment
Just realised my old profile name was coming up on some of my replies.
Thanks The Jackal. I am just hoping a few of the up & comers can prove me right. I am also hoping the Brumbies can prove me wrong and do a little better than predicted.
November 30th 2011 @ 3:27pm
Sean said | November 30th 2011 @ 3:27pm | Report comment
Personally I preferred Damage!