Break point conversions key to Australian Open final
Columnist By David Lord, 29 Jan 2012 David Lord is a Roar Expert
- Tagged:
- Australian Open, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Tennis
Novak Djokovic was the victor in a classic Australian Open semi-final AAP Image/Barbara Walton
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Tonight’s Novak Djokovic-Rafael Nadal final at the Australian Open will be far better value than the Victoria Azarenka-Maria Sharapova 6-3 6-0 fizzer at Melbourne Park last night.
From 1-2 down in the first set, Azarenka won 12 of the next 13 games to win her first Slam, and become world number one for the first time.
Not only did Azarenka create history for herself, but for women’s tennis as well.
Never before have all four Slams been held at the same time by first-timers – Li Na at the French, Petra Kvitova at Wimbledon, Sam Stosur at the US and now Azarenka.
It may have been one way traffic last night, but that sure won’t be the case tonight.
Djokovic leads 16-13 head-to-head, but more importantly the Serb has won the last six, two of them on clay in Madrid and Rome where Nadal usually reigns supreme.
But this is a different Nadal, he looks hungry and injury free.
So far Djokovic has dropped three sets, one to Lleyton Hewitt, and two to Andy Murray – Nadal just the one to Tomas Berdych.
Djokovic has been on the court for a tick under 15 hours, Nadal for 16 hours 55 minutes.
There’s little between their serving and ground strokes. Djokovic has the advantage at the net.
The critical difference between the two will be break conversion points.
For the two best players on the planet, their conversion rate is appalling.
In their six outings to date Djokovic has converted only 48 of 89 break points, or 53.93%. Nadal 34 of 79 – 43.04%.
They can get away with those stats against lesser opposition, but against each other – no way.
Break points are like hen’s teeth at this level. So the one who lifts the performance bar to around 65% will be the Australian Open champion.
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The Crowd Says (13) | Page 1 of Comments
Have Your Say
- Explore:
- Australian Open, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Tennis
January 29th 2012 @ 5:28am
Dave said | January 29th 2012 @ 5:28am | Report comment
Key is break point conversations? Well that is a shock.
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January 29th 2012 @ 10:36am
Brendon said | January 29th 2012 @ 10:36am | Report comment
Considering Federer’s great problem against Nadal in slams is his inability to convert break points but Nadal seems to convert a much higher percentage of his break points against Federer than he does Djokovic. I think its a fair call. I’d be interested to know the stats between Federer and Nadal in this regard.
January 29th 2012 @ 12:23pm
ohtani's jacket said | January 29th 2012 @ 12:23pm | Report comment
All tennis matches are won and lost on break points. You might as well say winning three sets is crucial to tonight’s final. And the conversion factor doesn’t matter. You only need one break point to win a set, it’s when you can’t convert any break points that you have a problem. What’s more, the top four broke each’s serves far more than usual in the semi finals. Unforced errors and first and second serve percentages are far more relevant statistics in tennis as they will effect the break point opportunities and conversions, not to mention holding serve after a break, which all four players struggled with. The other factor overlooked in this article is the points you have to win to earn break point, which is where the games are really being won. If you earn three break points and convert on the third it doesn’t necessarily mean you’re playing any better or worse than someone who converts on one break point at 40-30 or someone who converted on advantage at deuce. Stats don’t tell you how break points were won or lost. Often there’s nothing that can be done about lost break points and sometimes they’re won on the server’s error. If you convert on a double fault then having a 100% conversion rate is hardly special.
January 29th 2012 @ 6:19am
David Lord said | January 29th 2012 @ 6:19am | Report comment
Being facetious does you no credit Dave. Most fans reckon the serve, forehand, backhand, and volley are the most vital because they are in general play. But break points are rare at this level, so they are the key, whether you like it or not.
January 29th 2012 @ 6:53pm
Jiggles said | January 29th 2012 @ 6:53pm | Report comment
Break points are not rare at all, you have to get break points to win a game of tennis…
January 29th 2012 @ 6:59am
Brendon said | January 29th 2012 @ 6:59am | Report comment
Nadal dropped a set to Federer
January 29th 2012 @ 7:13am
Lancey5times said | January 29th 2012 @ 7:13am | Report comment
This a very simple theory to apply to a final between the top 2 players in the world in a grand slam final with 2 somewhat opposing styles. Alot has to go to plan for these guys to even get a break point. Nadal goes into this with all the work to do as he has failed for the last 12 months to do to Djokovic what he has done with ease to everyone else. He cannot get him off the baseline. Novak’s court position is so strong that he takes time away from Nadal and has him hitting balls from his own players box. Whereas Federer waits for the ball to drop (partly due to his single hander) and therefore sits deep behind the baseline, Djokovic takes the ball on the up and with the faster surface Nadal struggles to keep pace due to less time and the ball coming back flatter. Federer has success against Djokovic as he flattens the ball out and takes time from him due to Novak applying less spin than Rafa. If Nadal is a chance he needs to stand up on Djokovic’s 2nd serve and hit flatter which is a complete change is style for him. Novak in 4
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January 29th 2012 @ 9:53am
Dave said | January 29th 2012 @ 9:53am | Report comment
David. Faceless? Aren’t we all (expect those “experts” with their mug shots on the front page)?
Service game wins are almost routine at this level in the men’s game. Some complain boringly so. So extrapolating from this the more break points you win the more likely the chances are you are going to win. Hence my previous comment.
In my opinion it will be the fitness of the players. If Novak is not 100% fit/recovered (he should be with a full days rest), then he has very little chances of winning. If fit with his dominance over Nadal in the last 12 mths in big games I expect him to win a tough match.
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January 29th 2012 @ 10:23am
David Lord said | January 29th 2012 @ 10:23am | Report comment
When did facetious become faceless?
January 29th 2012 @ 10:43am
stabpass said | January 29th 2012 @ 10:43am | Report comment
Anyone at this level should have great serving ability, that is why break points are hard to convert, and players reguarly come from love 30/40 to hold serve.
January 29th 2012 @ 10:59am
Dave said | January 29th 2012 @ 10:59am | Report comment
My mistake.
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January 29th 2012 @ 5:32pm
dc said | January 29th 2012 @ 5:32pm | Report comment
Rafa Nadal in four if the Joker is not 100 percent fit…
January 30th 2012 @ 1:47am
L.Turner said | January 30th 2012 @ 1:47am | Report comment
Novak didn’t derserve to win. Nadal is the true winner, beating Federer and also playing without foxing. That is a true winner. All Novak deserves is an award at the Oscars. What happened to the allergies this game??????