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Pop quiz time: Who was the last VFL/AFL club to go through an entire season without winning a single game? If you were a footy fan this time last year, you should know the answer – it was the Fitzroy side of 1964, who lost all of their 18 matches that season.
It should be fresh in your mind, because 12 months ago the football world was wondering if expansion club Gold Coast Suns would suffer the same fate in 2011.
They didn’t, of course. They won three games by an average of just over eight points. But in April, Sportingbet gave them no chance, offering $1.60 for a winless campaign.
Looking back that was a silly price – but hindsight is 20/20.
Now, early in the 2012 pre-season, we’re asking ourselves the same question about the latest club to join the league’s ranks, Greater Western Sydney. The general expectation seems to be that the Giants will join Fitzroy in the pantheon of poor seasons.
But after our experience with the Suns last year, are people writing them off unfairly? They’ll win at least one, surely? Or won’t they?
There is a general hypothesis that the Giants’ lack of established stars means there is no chance they’ll do as well as the Suns. But how can we be sure?
Let’s step back to last year and see if that theory holds water. The first question we need to ask is how Gold Coast’s three wins came about.
First, there was the three-point win away to Port Adelaide in round five. Last year, Power were unquestionably the easybeats of the AFL – they were raw, mentally fragile and at their lowest ebb.
Up by 40 points late in the third term Port should never have lost the game, but a fourth-quarter meltdown domineered by Gary Ablett and Brandon Matera turned the tables.
It was a good victory, but if another more mentally-assured team was in Port’s shoes they might never have had the opportunity to grasp it.
Then, in round seven, Gold Coast broke through for their second win in the inaugural derby with the Brisbane Lions.
The eight-point win was far more impressive in that they actually dominated the Lions for four quarters, rather than coming out of nowhere like they did at AAMI Stadium.
Their third and final win was over Richmond, in Cairns of all places, in round 17. It should have been played in Melbourne, but the Tigers ‘sold’ their home game and maybe that came back to bite them, as they produced a fumbly, error-ridden performance in humid North Queensland.
Again, the Suns were good, but there were extemporaneous circumstances – earlier in the season it was Port Adelaide’s self-doubt, this time it was the conditions that rattled Richmond.
Perhaps Brisbane, even, weren’t prepared for the brutality of a new derby. They had to fight for victory each time, but their adversaries were vulnerable.
There’s another common thread. On each occasion, Gold Coast’s senior players stood up and were the difference on the day.
Brownlow Medal votes from those three rounds are a good way to find out who the Suns’ best, most influential players were. The umpires saw a senior player as Gold Coast’s best performer in each of their wins (Gary Ablett against Port, Jared Brennan against Brisbane, and Ablett again for the Richmond game).
From that, we can say that the presence of those senior players acted as the catalyst for those wins.
Here is where we can start to assume that the Giants will have a very lean debut season. The AFL’s new boys have no Ablett, Brennan or Rischitelli to rely on. Instead, GWS has a bunch of blue-chip youngsters and some unwanted veterans.
Who of these players can match the brilliance of Ablett – poster boy Tom Scully, the lionhearted Chad Cornes, former Bulldog Callan Ward, 2008 Rising Star Rhys Palmer, or the returning James McDonald? Not many, if any.
The Giants’ recruitment strategy will be put to the test this season, but on paper their uncontracted player swag is not as good as Gold Coast’s.
So when are GWS’ best opportunities to win in 2012? With the Suns’ season in mind, there some obvious opportunities.
The first is against Gold Coast themselves, in round seven in Canberra. It’ll be a new environment for all involved, and perhaps the Giants can spring a surprise on a side only one year older than themselves.
But in round 19, Port Adelaide visit Skoda Stadium. If the Power are having another disappointing season, by that stage you’d expect some heads to be down.
Western Sydney is unchartered waters for the Alberton side, and as it stands there’s a case to argue that Kevin Sheedy’s men would be able to exploit Port’s vulnerabilities the same way Gold Coast did.
I’m a staunch Port man but even I predicted they’d slip up at home against Gold Coast. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Giants took away their first win from Port either. It’s the kind of game they like to lose.
Above all, Greater Western Sydney has had the past 12 months to sit back and watch the Suns go through their paces as the first of two new expansion clubs.
While they were learning their lessons the hard way, the Giants should have been observing and taking notes and preparing to dodge the now-obvious dangers.
The question is whether their list provides them with the tools to make that happen. Either way, it’ll be magnetic television – a trainwreck or a masterpiece.
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