Black Caviar Lightning Stakes live blog, race preview
Roar Guru By Justin Cinque, 18 Feb 2012 Justin Cinque is a Roar Guru
- Tagged:
- Black Caviar, Hay List, Horse Racing, live blog, Peter Moody
Black Caviar will face the toughest test of her undefeated career when she lines up for the 19th time this afternoon in the 1000 metres of the Lightning Stakes at Flemington. Be sure to join us for a live blog of the race in the lead-up to the 4:10pm AEDT start time.
Peter Moody has thrown his mare into the deep end, asking her to back up after last week’s win in the C.F. Orr Stakes, and to do so while dropping back in distance some 400 metres.
Not only that, but Black Caviar is set to meet a field of sprinters, many of which have been set this race as their main assignment for the autumn Carnival.
There are so many reasons why today’s Lightning Stakes, run down the Flemington straight, is such an exciting proposition.
It is the first leg of the 2012 Global Sprint Challenge – a ten-leg series which boasts over $12M in prize money – and a new rule means that a horse can claim a $1 million bonus if they win any three Challenge legs. That is sure to garner interest from Black Caviar’s owners.
The Lightning is the first race since the 2011 Newmarket Handicap (when she broke the weight record while almost running a track record) that Moody has asked Black Caviar to do something extraordinary – most of the time she takes it upon herself to dazzle us.
The significant reduction in distance for Black Caviar shouldn’t be underestimated – dropping back from 1400 to 1000 metres can almost be regarded as going from a middle distance (whose minimum distance is 1401) to a sprint.
Not only that, but Cav comes into this, the fastest race on the Australian racing calendar, after a middling Orr Stakes in which her staying power wasn’t tested when a slow early speed turned the Caulfield Group 1 into a sprint home.
Unlike last week, you can bank on there being plenty of early speed today, and it could leave Black Caviar vulnerable at the start of the race. A slower than expected beginning is quite commonly something horses dropping back in distance have to overcome.
Sky Channel analyst Ron Dufficy thinks the mare can only be beaten if the early pace is so unrelenting that Caviar is never really able to find her comfort zone in coming back from 1400.
Black Caviar’s jockey Luke Nolen didn’t seem too worried about the likely fast speed in the Lightning when speaking to the media at Flemington.
“But she’s fit and she can carve out those very good sectionals. She can run sub elevens [sub 11-second sectionals for 200 metres] for the better part of a race and if they want to match her, they can,” Nolen said of Black Caviar.
Black Caviar is a noted star over the five-furlong trip. Her 1000-metre form is brilliant, as evidenced by her win in this race last year.
It was a five-length win, I was reminded only a couple days ago, that I described immediately afterwards as “the best 1000-metre win I’ve ever seen.”
Black Caviar has been presented with some pretty beatable opposition recently, but in today’s race there are undoubtedly horses capable of challenging her.
Hay List returns after a nine-month illness-enforced layoff for a fifth encounter with the mare, and his jockey Glyn Schofield is confident of victory.
He was quoted in the Sydney press as saying, “I’m not going to be worried or be intimidated by Black Caviar in any way.”
“But I’ll be out there to ride my horse the best I can, give him every chance to win. If he is good enough to win, then he will. If he doesn’t, he will still run a very good race,” he said.
It’s an honest approach from Schofield, whose Twitter account description – at least until Thursday, when it was changed – included something to the effect of “I will beat Black Caviar before I die.”
This is clearly the best field Black Caviar has met since winning the BTC Cup at Doomben in May last year. It includes Group 1 winners Phelan Ready and Lone Rock as well as speedy duo Buffering and three-year old Foxwedge.
Black Caviar’s eight challengers are all resuming from a spell. But it is Black Caviar who will be attempting to defy history, because it has been 25 years since a horse has won the Lightning Stakes third-up from a break.
And while West Australian Placid Ark was third-up for his 1987 Lightning success, he came into the race fresh off the back of a seven-week let-up.
In fact 18 of the last 21 Lightning Stakes have been won by horses first-up from a spell.
Victory for the mare will again be historically significant as she would equal Gloaming’s winning streak of 19, the longest in Australasian racing history.
American champion Zenyatta also ran 19 straight.
If Black Caviar can win this afternoon, she faces the prospect of backing up again next week in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes at Caulfield over 1400 metres, but it is also possible that she could be saved for a run in Sydney or even Dubai.
The more I think about it, the more I believe this is the day Black Caviar will be beaten if she ever does succumb. I’m wary of the drop in distance, and how she’ll cope on the back-up.
Moody justified the decision, adamant she would be in for a serious work-out even if she wasn’t racing this afternoon. But if Caviar happened to perform poorly and get beat in a track gallop, it wouldn’t count toward her record.
Hay List will ensure it’s more competitive than early-morning track-work for the champ. He has troubled Black Caviar (remembering not much else has), and we’re led to believe he’s flying.
One school of thought places Hay List as the number two sprinter in the world, so on that alone we should be expecting a spectacle.
Regardless of how close he gets to Black Caviar, it’s sure to be another memorable day’s racing at Flemington.
Let’s hope it’s a cracking race. Don’t forget to tune in on The Roar for the live blog – just scroll down.
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The Crowd Says (46) | Page 1 of Comments
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- Black Caviar, Hay List, Horse Racing, live blog, Peter Moody
2:06am
peeeko said | 2:06am | Report comment
I would have liked to see the race if they raced at equal weights. The 2 kg allowance for mares may have been the difference
2:37pm
Captain Sensible said | 2:37pm | Report comment
I would have liked to have seen the result had Black Caviar been first up from a spell like Hay List was. She would have embarrassed him…..again !! She beat him fair and squarely. She was dropping back from 1400m – 1000m AND backing up in 7 days. He was specifically set for this race.
7:28pm
maureen cranfield said | 7:28pm | Report comment
PLEASE, PLEASE, don’t run this fantastic lady into the ground: how many wins do you need before you realise she needs to be rested, revered and released from her duties. Dont switch off when I say, take heed of how the Kiwis look after their thoroughbreds…….they DO revere them.
2:35pm
Captain Sensible said | 2:35pm | Report comment
She’s had 3 runs this prep and only 19 in her career and she’s a 5 yo !!!! She’s had plenty of rest…..
5:22pm
Dave said | 5:22pm | Report comment
Excellent win today. I know exactly why Peter Moody ran her last week and this week. The 1400 race was to see if she could handle an uphill 6f at Ascot that runs more like a 7f on other tracks. The short backup would be to see how she handles racing close together. I reckon you will see Black Caviar have a cracked at the King Stand – Golden Jubilee race double at Royal Ascot which are 4 days apart.
I have a feeling the path for Black Caviar might be this
6f Golden Shaheen in late March
5f King Stands first day of Royal Ascot
6f Golden Jubilee last day of Royal Ascot
6f July Cup mid July at Newmarket
All 4 of those races are World Global Sprint Challenge Races
After that a dream race would be running her over 8f at Goodwood which runs more like a 7f race given the downhill straight of Goodwood. This is a race I could see her go head to head with Frankel. Will never happen in the Queen Anne
After that I think she will return to Aussie and try and make it 3 Patinack Sprints in a row and that will notch her a possible 6 of the 12 global sprint challenge races. A feat which will immortalize her in the world racing ranks.
4:27pm
jcinque said | 4:27pm | Report comment
Thanks for your company this afternoon.
The afternoon where Black Caviar may’ve reached greatness.
5:27pm
Dave said | 5:27pm | Report comment
She reached greatness well before that with the Australian racing public. But now its the world. She belts them in Dubai and Ascot and the racing world will know what all the Aussies do. She is unproven overseas after all and given her reputation and brilliance I cant see horses coming down to Aussie to race for second behind her. She has to go into their back yards and belt them.
4:26pm
jcinque said | 4:26pm | Report comment
The options now for the mare all centre around Royal Ascot. Does she cut the trip in half and go to Dubai for world cup night? Or stay in Australia with an aim of winning the William Reid and TJ SMith like last year to prepare for England?
It’s a big decision to make but Moody has listed 3 or 4 good reasons why he is against Dubai – the big one that he and his key staff would either have to leave their Caulfield stable for six weeks or Cav be away from those people for six weeks.
It’s thinking time for the Cav camp.
4:44pm
Jason Cave said | 4:44pm | Report comment
If I was one of the owners of Black Caviar, I would have Balck Caviar run two more races (William Reid & TJ Smith) as a final test, before heading to England, the home of horse racing. And I want to see Black Caviar go up against Frankel.
4:23pm
jcinque said | 4:23pm | Report comment
So even when the favourites were getting beaten left, right and centre Black Caviar continued to do it her way. Another fantastic win for this brilliant mare.
The world is at her doorstep now.
She really could’ve been forgiven for getting rolled today. It was GF-day for just about every other competitor in the field. This was an afterthought. But she was still dominant.
She joins Gloaming and Desert Gold – her winning streak the equal greatest in AUstralasian racing history.
It is the first time a horse has won the Lightning third up for 25 years.
This was just a brilliant training performance, as it was a great win.
Take a bow, Peter Moody!
4:27pm
sheek said | 4:27pm | Report comment
Well,
Captain Sensible among others might be pleased to know whatever reservations I had about Black Caviar are dissipating rapidly. Hay List is a damn fine horse, & she held off his challenge comfortably.
Also, a relative reminded me of how good her Newmarket win was last year, which I had somehow forgotten. I mean, I knew she won that race, but had forgotten how well she won it. Her times are also usually pretty impressive, which kinda eliminates the argument of the opposition.
7:44pm
Captain Sensible said | 7:44pm | Report comment
sheek her greatness was not proven in the Lightning Stakes but rather confirmed. She is undoubtedly the best sprinting horse I’ve ever had the good fortune to witness. What about the time ? A Racing Victoria approved clocker clocked the 1000m at 55.44 however the ‘official’ time they put up was 55.53, which in all likelyhood is the fastest 1000m ever ran down the famous Flemington straight (Special’s track record time of 55.50 could have been 55.99 as back then they rounded down to the nearest .5 of a sec). And she’s done it on a dead rated track (as against Special who ran on a fast rated track). She also had to deal with the 7 day back up from 1400m back to 1000m. Seriously who does that ? Lets put it into perspective. Since 2008 1.1 million horses have started in a race. Of those 1.1 million a mere 120 of them have been asked to back up in 7 days dropping from 1400m back to 1000m, Only 1 managed to win, which was a lowly race in the SA bush. Black Caviar has now also done it but she did it in a 1000m Group 1 race run at one of the world’s premier racecourses and in a race that’s a leg of the Global Sprint Challenge AND she did it running, in all likelyhood, the fastest 1000m ever in over a 150 years of racing at Flemington……
4:19pm
jcinque said | 4:19pm | Report comment
So Black Caviar was exposed by her trainer, tested by Hay List but passes with flying colours. It wasn’t soft but it was her best win of her career.
Nolen “It was” – answering to whether it was the greatest win of her career
“I just have to take my hat off to that mare”
“She touched me today. The chips were down but she showed a lot of courage”
“She fought it out”
“It was a little unsuitable but champions continue to do it. Don’t they”
4:17pm
jcinque said | 4:17pm | Report comment
Moody: “she needed to have it softer today to warrant backing up next week”
She probably won’t run next week.
“If she goes to Dubai, she probably has had her last start in Australia this prep” – Moody
4:16pm
jcinque said | 4:16pm | Report comment
So what a brilliant win by BC.
Hay List headed her at the 300 but Black Caviar fought back strongly. Her strength over the final 200 metres was the difference.
After coming back in trip she begun brilliantly and showed fantastic early toe – Moody’s training performance obviosuly outstanding there.
Buffering held third.
4:14pm
jcinque said | 4:14pm | Report comment
Nolen punching out BC. HL trying to fight back but she is too good.
That is a brilliant win by the mare – surely her greatest ever.
HL challenged. Schofield ensured the pressure was on throughout.
Nolen went for the mare and she responded.
0.03 outside track record time
4:13pm
jcinque said | 4:13pm | Report comment
BC showed great speed early.
HL, BC, Buff at the 400
4:12pm
jcinque said | 4:12pm | Report comment
All in
Racing
BC jumped well. HL too.
BC going fwd. HL outside her. 1-2
4:12pm
jcinque said | 4:12pm | Report comment
BC loads well.
Set. Ready now…
4:11pm
jcinque said | 4:11pm | Report comment
Phelan Ready moves in riderless.
4:11pm
jcinque said | 4:11pm | Report comment
BC being led around behind the stalls.
4:10pm
jcinque said | 4:10pm | Report comment
So this is it. We’re almost set…
4:10pm
jcinque said | 4:10pm | Report comment
Black Caviar being prepared behind the barriers. Her barrier blanket – a common feature – is applied as the runners load.
4:09pm
jcinque said | 4:09pm | Report comment
Runners are behind the barriers.
BC looks really well. Handles the conditions perfectly – it is a bit hot today in Melbourne by all reports.
4:08pm
jcinque said | 4:08pm | Report comment
Looks a really good crowd at Flemington. Plenty of Salmon and Black in the crowd. That’s for sure.
4:07pm
jcinque said | 4:07pm | Report comment
Peter Moody is respectful of the opposition but seems pretty confident.
Moody reminds us of Black Caviar’s brilliance down the straight.
4:04pm
jcinque said | 4:04pm | Report comment
Foxwedge with the bottom weight of 55.5 can run along and run a good race. Looks well.
He probably won’t get closer to the champ than what he does today. 1000m is better for this bloke than 1200.
4:03pm
jcinque said | 4:03pm | Report comment
Black Caviar looks fantastic. Really is always presented well and she’s showing no signs of fatigue or anything like that on the back-up. No reason to expect anything other than victory.
4:02pm
jcinque said | 4:02pm | Report comment
Buffering looks really too. He’s been bashed up a few times by Cav but can run a place here.
Temple of Boom, I am a fan of. He looks well but also outgraded in this WFA group 1.
Secret Flyer is also a bit out of his depth but looks really good.
Metallurgical too looks ready for this but again will probably struggle.
4:05pm
Cameron Larkin said | 4:05pm | Report comment
Meta had a v.good trial recently down the straight also.
4:06pm
jcinque said | 4:06pm | Report comment
Straight-track jump outs are a great guide but Meta isn’t dominant in Open Brissy races so surely this is a tough ask for him.
4:01pm
jcinque said | 4:01pm | Report comment
Horses in the yard – let’s have a look.
Phelan Ready hasn’t really gone on since winning the Golden Slipper a few years ago. Not today for mine.
Hay List looks awesome. Coat glissens in the sunshine. Ready to rock and roll.
3:59pm
jcinque said | 3:59pm | Report comment
We’ve only had one straight race so far – All Too Hard’s win in Race 1.
He came down the crown of the track to beat Liberty Rock who led. They didn’t exactly make much ground up which isn’t too concerning anyway.
Big news out of that race was the time All Too Hard ran. I don’t have it on me but it was a flying run for the 1000m. He went sub 11 for the last four furlongs from memory – certainly broke 11 for the middle three. So Cav could be shooting for a track record here. She doesn’t own one – she has never has but she might just break one today.
3:56pm
jcinque said | 3:56pm | Report comment
So we’re 15 minutes away from the Lightning Stakes. THe horses will be entering the mounting yard shortly.
3:54pm
jcinque said | 3:54pm | Report comment
Another shortie just got beaten. This time Beaded at 2.2 in Sydney.
Luckily BC has no regard for records or history or patterns….because this must be a bit of a concern.
3:36pm
jcinque said | 3:36pm | Report comment
Oh my word – Helmet – horrible!
$1.75 fav gets beaten 2.5L into fifth. It’s not going to plan for the favourites. Dear oh dear. Hopefully, BC can overcome the hotpot horrors we’ve seen so far today.
I don’t think Cav will know what price she starts at but racing is a funny game and when the favs get rolled it usually needs a Cav-like horse to stop the rot.
3:38pm
jcinque said | 3:38pm | Report comment
Just on Helmet – first-up from the Cox PLate run, he just had no dash. Probably needs to be out and running (he was stuck behind the leader until the final stretch). I reckon he’s looking for MUCH further too. A mile is the minimum for this bloke who will heading overseas in the near future.
4:00pm
Cameron Larkin said | 4:00pm | Report comment
I was on That’s The One so v.happy.
Only danger to BC is F/wedge – no to Hay List.
4:05pm
jcinque said | 4:05pm | Report comment
I’m sticking strong to Hay List as the main threat. This has to be the day for him otherwise he will never have one!
3:30pm
jcinque said | 3:30pm | Report comment
I think it’s fantastic that Peter Moody has decided to back his mare up. It’s such a brilliant spectacle for racing. To have consecutive 20K+ crowds in Melbourne in autumn is fantastic and we’re still to have the two biggest Melb autumn meetings – the Blue Diamond next week (possible Cav appearance there too) and Super Saturday in a month from now.
3:42pm
jcinque said | 3:42pm | Report comment
In saying that about Moody, I thought his justification in backing the mare up – i.e. he was going to work her hard anyway – doesn’t sit well with me. What is he saying…that today’s going to be a track gallop for her? When Cav comes to the races she needs to be 100% on and I’m sure she will be (I reckon I’m just missing Pete’s point) because winning is what this girl is all about.
3:28pm
jcinque said | 3:28pm | Report comment
Earlier today we saw the half-brother to Black Caviar, All Too Hard – a $1.025M purchase at the yearling sales, win the first race at Flemington for the 2YOs down the straight. He was super impressive for Dwayne Dunn and the Hawkes team. One to watch for sure.
3:26pm
jcinque said | 3:26pm | Report comment
Runners are on the track for Race 5 – the race before Caviar’s at 4:10pm. Looking fwd to seeing Caulfield Guineas winner Helmet go around.
3:24pm
jcinque said | 3:24pm | Report comment
Plenty of history for Cav to make here today.
Let’s recap:
2nd horse in 25 years to win at 1000 in town after last start at 1400
1st horse in 25 years to win Lightning third up
Equal greatest winning streak in Australasian history – with Gloaming and Desert Gold
Equal Zenyatta’s 19 straight wins in America.
Equal second greatest undefeated run in horse racing (for horses that remained undefeated through their career)
3:19pm
jcinque said | 3:19pm | Report comment
In my opinion this is the greatest test in Black Caviar’s career.
Last week I would’ve put the house on her if I was into taking odds of $1.06. Today I wouldn’t want to put counterfeit money on her at a price of $1.10. I reckon it’s poison odds.
Only one horse in something like 25 years has come back from 1400 and won it’s next start over 1000 at a metropolitan track and that was in 2001 in Perth.
3:16pm
jcinque said | 3:16pm | Report comment
So we’re an hour away from Black Caviar’s attempt at her 19th victory.
It’s been a tough day for favourites so far – and you’ll be surprised how often a pattern like that continues throughout an afternoon’s racing.
Both Driefontein and Raceway fell in, in Sydney, at prohibitive odds in the 2YO races, while the oft-brilliant Mosheen was gunned down by Shopoholic at $1.5 in 3YO fillies race at Flemington.
They’re expecting 28,000 at FLemington for today’s meeting and it’s sure to be an exciting race.
Hay List is a huge chance of beating of the champ today. Schofield, his jockey, has partenered HL to some brilliant seconds against Black Caviar previously. You get the feeling, with the champ slightly exposed that if he can run up to his performances in the TJ Smith at Randwick and BTC Cup at Doomben last year that he could beat the mare.
And we haven’t had a “real” challenger for Black Caviar for a long time so it’s certainly going to be interesting for the champ. If she blows them away today she just might silence some critics.