Five fearless predictions for the 2012 NRL season
Columnist By Ryan O'Connell, 21 Feb 2012 Ryan O'Connell is a Roar Expert
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- 2012 NRL season, Dally M, Kurt Gidley, New Zealand Warriors, North Queensland Cowboys, NRL, Penrith Panthers, Rugby League, Todd Carney
James Maloney hit after getting a kick away during the NRL Round 25. AAP Image/Action Photographics/Grant Trouville
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With the 2012 rugby league season nearly upon us, it’s time once again to channel my inner Nostradamus and announce five fearless predictions.
Coming off a steady if unspectacular two out of five correct predictions last season, I’m hopeful of improving the strike rate in 2012.
Betting slip, please.
One: New Zealand Warriors won’t make the finals.
This prediction isn’t as stupid as it sounds, and is based on a little bit of research and history.
In 2009, the Parramatta Eels went on a fairytale run at the backend of the season, and made it all the way to the grand final. The following year, in 2010, the Sydney Roosters had a similar Cinderella run before it came to an abrupt end at the hands of the St George Illawarra Dragons.
In each of the following years, both teams struggled mightily and failed to make the finals.
The problem with over-achieving is that the high expectations it sets for the future can be unrealistically high. And I fear that may be the case with last year’s grand finalists.
The Warriors certainly have a lot of talent, led by the exciting Shaun Johnson, but I have a feeling that they may just come crashing back to earth in 2012. With a thud.
Two: Todd Carney will have a trouble-free season.
Of all the predictions I’ve made, this would easily be the one with the longest odds.
The NRL’s perennial bad boy has as a rap sheet as long as the Nullarbor, and there are many people not just expecting him to mess up again, but hoping for it.
Carney is a wonderful football talent, and he’s not a bad kid. But some things just don’t mix. Pitbull and hearing is one example. Carney and alcohol is another. Some people just don’t seem to be able to handle booze and Carney certainly falls into that category.
From reports, he’s not completely off the booze, but he has kept out of trouble so far at his new club. And if the Sharks’ trial game against Manly is any indication, Carney is set to return to his 2010 form.
Despite being told ‘this is your last chance’ about 250 times, it may have finally sunk in for Carney, and I expect a big season from him. It’s no coincidence whatsoever that I also expect a trouble-free season from him.
Three: North Queensland Cowboys will make the grand final.
Should they be able to overcome a few injury issues, the Cowboys will give the 2012 premiership a real shake.
Led by a rejuvenated Johnathan Thurston, the go-forward of Matt Scott, and the brilliance of Matt Bowen, the North Queensland outfit returned to finals football last year. And I believe they can go even further this season.
While in the past they have relied too heavily on one or two individuals, the Cowboys have quietly put together a squad that has a lot of depth.
Tariq Sims, Aston Sims and Dallas Johnson add plenty of starch to the forward pack, supporting Scott. The recruitment of Robert Lui and the return from injury of Brent Tate will add to the team’s firepower and options.
Their defence can still be weak at times, but if they can shore up that element of their game, and stay injury free, I predict they’ll still be playing on October the first.
Four: Kurt Gidley will win the Dally M.
While the signings of super coach Wayne Bennett and ‘tag-along’ fullback Darius Boyd have prompted most of the headlines regarding the Newcastle Knights, it’s easy to forget that the club already had a solid playing squad before those two arrived.
Throw in the return of favourite son and former captain Danny Buderus, along with the signings of representative prop Kade Snowden and the enigmatic centre Timana Tahu, and big things are expected from the Novocastrians in 2012.
Gidley, after many seasons of paying the price for his own versatility, is confirmed as the five-eight and will partner Jarrod Mullen in the halves, in what might be the New South Wales pairing come Origin time.
Gidley is excited to start the season knowing exactly where he’ll be playing, and a quick look at the recent winners of the Dally M indicates that players who play in a winning side, and have their hands on the ball a lot, usually poll well. As such, you can expect Gidley to be right among the leaders come Dally M time.
Five: Penrith Panthers will win the wooden spoon.
Love him or hate him, you have to give credit to Phil Gould for one thing: he knows his rugby league. One of the shrewdest and most intelligent minds in the game, ‘Gus’ will eventually turn the Panthers into a force to be reckoned with in the NRL.
However, it won’t be this year.
Despite the credentials of Gould and those of his protégé Ivan Clearly, the Panthers simply don’t have the cattle to compete with the rest of the NRL.
While the backline contains many exciting players, including Michael Jennings, Sandor Earl, Michael Gordon and Lachlan Coote, there remain many questions marks over the consistency, health and attitude of the group.
Halves Travis Burns and Luke Walsh are solid first graders, but neither is a top-class half.
Up front, the loss of Petero Civoniceva will be badly felt. And while the inspirational Luke Lewis remains, the overall roster simply lacks the class and experience of every other in the competition.
I think it will be a long year for the men from the foot of the mountains.
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February 21st 2012 @ 8:38am
Jimbo Jones said | February 21st 2012 @ 8:38am | Report comment
Come on Ryan – have a crack and tell us who is going to be the first player who’s extracurricular activities are going to show up in the papers.
February 21st 2012 @ 10:03am
Ryan O'Connell said | February 21st 2012 @ 10:03am | Report comment
Nathan Hindmarsh.
That guy is trouble waiting to happen
February 21st 2012 @ 8:45am
John said | February 21st 2012 @ 8:45am | Report comment
One: Ouch. Never count out the Warriors. They’ll make the finals – they may not make THE grand final, but they’ll be there.
Two: I’m giving you long odds on that one. No one wants Carney to make trouble, it just seems to find him. The only way he’ll keep out of the headlines for anything other than his footy is if people turn a blind eye. Or the Tele doesn’t have enough moles in Cronulla.
Three: NQ are better without Thurston. There, I said it.
Four: Now this is interesting. I like Gidley. I feel he’s carried Newcastle for ages without due credit. Nice tip.
Five:When the Panthers do badly, my tipping does well. I always tip against them. Let’s hope you’re right!
February 21st 2012 @ 9:03am
turbodewd said | February 21st 2012 @ 9:03am | Report comment
I actually think Gould will bring belief to the Panthers and they will outperform and make the top 8. Would be very surprised if they dont.
I expect St.Geo and Manly to bomb badly.
Watch for a Gold Coast rebound
February 21st 2012 @ 10:35am
Mals said | February 21st 2012 @ 10:35am | Report comment
Manly & St George will again make the top 8 this season.
Gold Coast have an injury prone half back, lack a quality hooker & 5/8 so they will go nowhere again this year. Bottom 3 finish for GC.
February 21st 2012 @ 9:11am
PGNEWC said | February 21st 2012 @ 9:11am | Report comment
Lets Hope the Pennies do better than the prediction and the tiges and the dogs do well — given the threat of GWS and the AFL
February 21st 2012 @ 9:33am
Basketballguru said | February 21st 2012 @ 9:33am | Report comment
1. The Warriors have a new coach , and the players will have to adjust accordingly . This could go either way . In terms of Shaun Johnson , his parallel on the surface at least would be Benji Marshall . Who wasn’t quite so good after the Tigers won the comp in ’05 . But then again he got hurt . I think this one could go either way.
2. Not sure about Carney . He always goes one-season-on , then one off , so I think this season will be ‘on’ . Besides , his livelihood depends on it . Doesn’t it ?
3. Whoever said the Cowboys were better without Thurston is kidding themselves . If he stays injury free , the Cowboys make the top 6 , I that’s a lock . Anything after that is a lottery . Liking the odds on this on . What’s an easier bet is that the Cowboys will be the best NRL team north of the border this season .
4. No . Darius Boyd will get his share of awards as Gidley will no longer have to carry the Knights . If you want a Dally M winner look at players like Sam Burgess ( who won’t have Origin duties ) , or Cooper Cronk or the aforementioned Thurston .
5. The spoon ? You could make a case for half of the NRL . Penrith seems like a good bet to me , but Gus is on board and they’ll have Cleary who’ll bring a new attitude , but their playing staff ain’t all that . The Bunnies still don’t have a half back . Cronulla has a long way to go ( losing Kade Snowden will be huge for them , and Carney is a lottery ticket ) . Parra will try and win games with a Roberts/Sandow halves combination ( good luck ) , and Canberra – who are Dugan , Campese and not much else . And the Titans for no reason other than they are the Titans . Take your pick .
February 21st 2012 @ 9:50am
Ryan O'Connell said | February 21st 2012 @ 9:50am | Report comment
I think David Shillington, Brett White, Tom Learoyd-Lahrs, etc, may take offence at your comment that the Raiders have “…not much else”.
February 21st 2012 @ 10:06am
Damo said | February 21st 2012 @ 10:06am | Report comment
The Broncos will need to adjust to life without Lockyer. They could struggle. Still got plenty of talent though.
February 21st 2012 @ 5:47pm
Maroon Blood said | February 21st 2012 @ 5:47pm | Report comment
Does this site have an annual “No S**t Sherlock” award?? If so, I nominate Damo as an early front runner for the award for his Broncos comment.
Should have been an investigative journalist I reckon
February 21st 2012 @ 10:17am
Bearfax said | February 21st 2012 @ 10:17am | Report comment
Very brave Ryan…very brave
Warriors: More likely to succeed than not because now they have a solid looking team. No I think they’ll be there
Carney: I think if he can remain iunjury and trouble free he’s a very good chance of t Dally M. Still young and got loads of potential. And a year further down the track may have matured him a lttle more…but will it be enough. Gallen is the factor here.
North Queensland: They’ll certainly be a bogey side with the Sims brothers adding starch to their pack. But still so much depends on Thurston and Bowen and they are both starting to show their age. May make the finals but no way the grandfinal
Gidley: Top player but getting past his prime but he has the talent. Newcastle in my mind is 4th or 5th
Penrith: I think they will struggle and improve as the year progresses. A work in progress that one but will be doing well to make the 8
Manly and St George: Manly very unknown. Virtually same playing roster with a couple of the rising stars a year older. Have lost a few solid performers and the very talented Hopoate, but he was injured much of last year anyway. Question is can Toovey match Hasler. St George have lost some important cattle but they have a strong junior group. Coach issue again so a little unknown. At this stage I have Manly at 8 and Saints at 9, but both could win the comp if injuries dont knock them abaout too much.
Big Movers up: Cronulla and Canberra
February 21st 2012 @ 11:37am
toddm said | February 21st 2012 @ 11:37am | Report comment
NEWCASTLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
February 21st 2012 @ 11:43am
toddm said | February 21st 2012 @ 11:43am | Report comment
1) Warriors will struggle cause they wont be as good as Newcastle
2) Crney will be wishing he was at Newcastle
3) North Queensland wish they were geograpically closer to Newcastle
4)its a tie between gids,bedsy,boyd,mullen,tahu,bennett
5)Gus will be wishing he came to Newcasle instead
oh and case you wondering im a Knights supporter …….
February 21st 2012 @ 12:15pm
PGNEWC said | February 21st 2012 @ 12:15pm | Report comment
I find your reasonable and sensible hypothesis rather compelling toddm (from another Kerniget supporter)
February 21st 2012 @ 4:45pm
Luke said | February 21st 2012 @ 4:45pm | Report comment
I think you’re onto something there…
February 21st 2012 @ 10:59am
B.A Sports said | February 21st 2012 @ 10:59am | Report comment
Love predicitions.
I hope you are right regarding Carney. I saw the growth in the guy when i was in Cairns, so i think he can do it with the right people around him.
As for the Warriors, its obviously true what you say in regard to the Eels and Rooster (and history is often the best way to predict the future). There are a few key differences i would say though. UNlike the Eels the Warriors have two halves who are unquestionably talented with the gifts that make good 6′s and 7′s. The Warriors don’t appear to have a key player with the potential to implode the way Carney did. And the other key difference is that the Warriors have a stacked system. So for those reason I think thye will be a huge threat again this year. The only thing going against them (i think) is there new coach who I think is a dud.
February 21st 2012 @ 5:10pm
Go warriors said | February 21st 2012 @ 5:10pm | Report comment
B.A Sports how can you call the warriors new coach a dud. I think you are being a bit harsh there. Brian Mclennan in 3 years took Leeds to 3 finals winning 2 of them. He has coached the Kiwis to winning the tri nations in his first year beating Australia twice in the one year. Something which has not being done for a very long time. He deserves his chance.
February 22nd 2012 @ 10:39am
B.A Sports said | February 22nd 2012 @ 10:39am | Report comment
You’re right “Dud” was harsh. I think i was just feeling to lazy to think of a more appropriate word to describe him.
I don’t think we have had any coaches yet who have shown that success in the Super League will translate into success in the NRL, so I really don’t read much into his success in the UK. He did have a good result in the Tri-nations back in 07 or when ever it was but i think outside tha tournament his win-loss was about 3-9. So not great. And the fact that he has been snooping around for an NRL job for about 5 or 6 yeards and no one has been interested, make me think that he will struggle to get the best out of a team over 8 months of a year.
But that said, I think the Warriors have enough talent to overcome a decline in leadership and direction they will be getting.
February 21st 2012 @ 11:12am
Jammy said | February 21st 2012 @ 11:12am | Report comment
I hoped that the cowboys would do well – until they signed Robert Lui.
I think the warriors might take some time to adjust to a new coach but they’ll still make the finals.
February 21st 2012 @ 11:23am
Rabby said | February 21st 2012 @ 11:23am | Report comment
Warriors – agree, they over achieved in 2011 which won’t be repeated. Their loss of Cleary will hurt more than their fans may appreciate. If they do scrape in it will 8th position and they won’t last long thereafter.
Carney – disagree, I simply cannot see this guy not overdoing it at some point especially if he is still on the pop. If they are imbibing even a little they will slip sooner or later.
Cowboys make the final, doubt it but its a long time yet before October.
Kurt Gidley – NO, won’t happen, he simply isn’t good enough. Period.
Penrith and the spoon – someone has to win it and the Panthers will be at the right end of the table that is for sure.