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This is the second part of my assessment of which of the Australian teams will perform best in 2012.
Part one examined the overall assessment on coach, culture, player group, depth, leadership and the spine of the Australian Super Rugby teams.
Part two examines the draw for each of the Australian teams and how it will affect their chances of winning the 2012 Super Rugby competition.
The draw has a significant impact on a team’s prospects. Each team plays the four teams in its conference twice each year. Each team also plays four teams from both the other conferences, two at home and two away.
Importantly, there is one team from each conference that the Australian teams will not play at all during the regular season.
There is no easy game in the Super Rugby competition. Just ask the Waratahs after their home game defeat by the Cheetahs (23-3).
Ask the Hurricanes (42-25), Brumbies (25-24) or the Force (26-25), who were all beaten by the Rebels last year in their debut season.
The ideal draw for a team genuinely aspiring to win the competition is to avoid the best teams completely in the regular season, play the next ranked teams at home and play the weakest teams away.
This maximises their competition points, giving them a better chance of finishing first and clinching the home-ground advantage for the finals.
I have examined the teams from the other conferences that the Australian teams will play and whether they will meet at home or away.
I have excluded the games against the other Australian teams. This aspect of the draw does not change from season to season, and the home and away format cancels out the home/away factor.
|
Team |
Home games |
Away games |
| Reds | Stormers, Chiefs, Lions, Highlanders. | Sharks, Bulls, Blues, Crusaders. |
| Waratahs | Sharks, Crusaders, Bulls, Hurricanes. | Highlanders, Chiefs, Stormers, Cheetahs. |
| Brumbies | Cheetahs, Highlanders, Sharks, Blues. | Chiefs, Bulls, Lions, Hurricanes. |
| Force | Hurricanes, Chiefs, Stormers, Lions. | Cheetahs, Sharks, Blues, Crusaders. |
| Rebels | Cheetahs, Blues, Bulls, Crusaders. | Highlanders, Hurricanes, Lions, Stormers. |
I have given each team a point rating based on their final position in the 2011 competition. For example, the Reds are rated one and the Rebels are rated 15.
One of the points of difference between the Super Rugby competition and the AFL, NRL or NFL is that it does not have universal conference or team rules. Without a player draft or standard salary cap restrictions, the nature of the competition’s teams has remained relatively unchanged over the long term, while still presenting a broad cross-section of widely differing performances and reputations.
While teams’ performances can and have fluctuated over a one or two-year period, over the longer term, the teams remain or return to their typical performances.
For example, the better performed are the Crusaders and Blues, Bulls and Stormers and Waratahs and Brumbies. The good short term performers have been the Chiefs, the Reds and the Sharks.
The Hurricanes have flattered to deceive; the Lions and Cheetahs have been consistently incompetent while the Force has struggled at the hands of player power and some truly bad luck at critical stages. Willie Ripia is just the latest example of the Force losing their playmaker after doing all the initial development work.
Then I have aggregated the points for each Australian team, home and away. For example, the Reds will play the Stormers (3 points), Chiefs (10), Lions (14) and Highlanders (9) at home in 2012. These teams represent 36 points. Away from home, the Reds will play the Sharks (5 points), Bulls (7), Blues (4) and Crusaders (2) in 2012 for a total of 18 points.
Home Games Draw:
|
Team |
Home |
Rank |
| Reds |
36 |
1 |
| Force |
35 |
2 |
| Brumbies |
29 |
3 |
| Rebels |
24 |
4 |
| Waratahs |
22 |
5 |
The home games draw is polarised. Overall, the Reds have the easiest home opponents of the Australian teams. The Waratahs have the most difficult. This is a disadvantage to the Reds and an advantage to the Waratahs.
The Reds only serious home game against teams outside the Australian Conference will be against the Stormers. This wastes the home ground advantage against weak opponents such as Chiefs, Lions and Highlanders.
In particular, the Waratahs most difficult home game is against the Crusaders and will be played at the Sydney Football Stadium. If the Waratahs have played well in the previous nine games, they will have the support of a large home crowd, who will be welcoming the best games back to the Sydney Football Stadium.
Away Games Draw:
|
Team |
Away |
Rank |
| Brumbies |
39 |
1 |
| Rebels |
34 |
2 |
| Waratahs |
33 |
3 |
| Force |
22 |
4 |
| Reds |
18 |
5 |
The away games draw favours the Brumbies the most and the Reds the least.
The Brumbies face the Chiefs, Bulls, Lions and Hurricanes. However, the Brumbies will only be able to take advantage of this draw if Jake White has galvanised the Brumbies’ youngsters more quickly than is expected or realistic.
I suspect that they will not yet be a credible Super rugby team. This is due to the wholesale changes that have taken place in the coaching and playing ranks since last season.
The Reds travel to each of the top-five teams except the Stormers, with the Bulls taking the Stormers place. The only possible mitigating factor is that the Crusaders will be at a new ground, the redeveloped and upgraded Rugby League Park, which is scheduled to reopen in March 2012.
The Waratahs have one difficult away game against the Stormers and then face the Highlanders, the Chiefs and the Cheetahs.
I conclude that only the Reds or the Waratahs can win the 2012 Super Rugby competition. However, The Reds are more likely.
This is especially so now after the Reds away win over the ‘Tahs in round one.
But nothing is set in stone – the Waratahs still have a considerable advantage with the draw firmly in their favour.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.