It’s a long way to the top for expansion teams
By Michael DiFabrizio, 11 Apr 2012 Michael DiFabrizio is a Roar Expert
- Tagged:
- AFL, Gold Coast Suns, Guy McKenna, GWS Giants, Tom Hawkins
Gary Ablett after another Gold Coast Suns loss (Slattery Images)
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The expansion teams are back on the agenda after GWS and Gold Coast received two massive thumpings on Easter Sunday, but we should all just relax.
Sure, the Giants couldn’t register a first half goal on the way to losing to North Melbourne by 129 points and the Suns weren’t close in their 92-point loss to St Kilda.
But it’s funny that the other club being blasted for lacking competitiveness right now is Melbourne, who’ve put in two disappointing performances – including a 108-point loss – under new coach Mark Neeld.
It just shows that whether you’ve been around 150 years or aren’t anywhere near 150 games, building a side capable of winning the flag is not a task that happens overnight.
That hasn’t stopped the flow of negative comments that started about 10 minutes in to the GWS game, mind you.
“The people of Gold Coast and western Sydney aren’t going to put up with this sort of footy much longer.”
“The AFL needs to intervene.”
“Both teams should’ve been given more experienced players from other clubs.”
“A country footy team could beat GWS.”
Honestly, it needs to stop.
If you couldn’t have foreseen that the Suns and Giants would find it hard to compete early on in their existence, you’ve got rocks in your head.
With lists comprised mostly of freshly-drafted players, it was clear that there would be dark times to begin with.
In recent years, our Supercoach teams and the Rising Star award have shown how much of an impact a young player can have in his first or second year of footy. It’s definitely possible for young players to come into the comp and belong straight away.
But to expect that of an entire group of young players isn’t right.
A great example was thrown in our faces on Monday. Just look at Tom Hawkins, who is seemingly coming alive with each game he plays for Geelong.
Up until Round 24 last year, he was the epitome of a much-maligned player. The key forward, who we were told would’ve gone very high in his draft had he not been a father-son pick, struggled to impose himself in games, let alone live up to his potential.
Now, in his sixth season of AFL football – yes, sixth – he’s finally “arrived”. He’s all of the sudden a contested marking machine who’s playing a major role in the Cats winning big games.
It puts all the commotion following Sunday’s results into some form of perspective.
It is very, very rare to see even close to a player’s best football in his first or second season. The players that will be responsible for driving these two clubs up the ladder have plenty of improvement ahead of them.
This is illustrated by the fact there are 35 GWS listed players that are aged 20 or younger.
Initially, we were told it would be better for these new clubs to become genuine premiership contenders within a reasonable timeframe, rather than for them to find themselves as far away from a flag as the Brisbane Bears and Sydney Swans once were for an extended period.
Most of us bought into that premise.
But if we truly believe that’s the way to go, then getting games into kids – no matter how bad it looks on the scoreboard, no matter how many pages from the back of the Daily Telegraph it puts the game – should be what’s most important right now.
The sad part is, already it seems that at least one of the expansion clubs might’ve already departed from the premise.
It was reported on The Footy Show earlier this year that the Suns board have a set criteria that coach Guy McKenna will need to meet to keep his job after this season, which (according to the show) includes winning six games.
This came on the back of a report in the Gold Coast Bulletin that senior officials were “seething” after McKenna used the second half of the club’s NAB Cup fixture with GWS, a game they lost, to give more minutes to youngsters.
The report was denied by the Suns, but as the saying goes, where there’s smoke there’s fire.
And that, bizarre as it may seem, worries me a lot more than how the Suns went in the second game of their second season against a 2011 finalist on the road.
Michael DiFabrizio is completing his journalism degree. As an AFL writer, he has been an expert columnist at The Roar since 2009, and appeared in The Age and on ABC television and radio. Follow Michael on twitter @mdifabrizio
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April 11th 2012 @ 7:18am
ManInBlack said | April 11th 2012 @ 7:18am | Report comment
What I’ve found amazing is the talk of being contendors within 4 or 5 years.
By that stage, the 18 yr olds will still only be 22-23 yrs old. StKilda had a batch of top picks in Riewoldt, Kosi, Ball and Goddard – and still had to wait until they had matured into adult bodies to have any notion of ‘contending’.
The key in the short-medium term is to get 40-50 games into as many of the new players as possible. Until that happens – for me, most judgements should be suspended. And if that can include the ‘management’ of the Suns to permit McKenna to educate his young charges then all the better.
April 11th 2012 @ 5:29pm
John Hines said | April 11th 2012 @ 5:29pm | Report comment
the afl should look long and hard at themselves because expanding to 18 teams will cost them a hell of a lot in the long run because there is not enough money around to keep it at 18 teams plus there is not enough fans to keep the afl healthy
April 11th 2012 @ 7:51pm
The Cattery said | April 11th 2012 @ 7:51pm | Report comment
John
what stats are you using to justify the last point about not enough fans?
The AFL’s members, set to exceed 650k for the second running, are double the total members of the other codes combined.
On top of that, about three clubs have waiting lists to purchase memberships.
April 11th 2012 @ 7:32am
TomC said | April 11th 2012 @ 7:32am | Report comment
‘It was reported on The Footy Show earlier this year that the Suns board have a set criteria that coach Guy McKenna will need to meet to keep his job after this season, which (according to the show) includes winning six games.’
Does anyone really believe this? The only person who seems to give it much credence is Damien Barret, who reported it.
It would be astonishingly stupid if it was true. I really don’t think the Australian sports media is universally competent enough to say ‘where there’s smoke there’s fire’.
April 11th 2012 @ 10:27am
Michael DiFabrizio said | April 11th 2012 @ 10:27am | Report comment
TomC, I agree that it’d be astonishingly stupid to expect six wins, but it was interesting that despite this report appearing on a widely-watched nationally broadcast football show, the Suns did not (to my knowledge) come out after and state that wasn’t the case. When you combine this with the report after the GWS NAB Cup loss, it is not unreasonable to suggest there’s smoke. I certainly don’t think both these journalists just made up what they were saying.
April 11th 2012 @ 10:41am
Macca said | April 11th 2012 @ 10:41am | Report comment
If the suns sack Mckenna they have rocks in their head, and 6 wins is ridiculous, they will get 2 from GWS but can’t see them getting another 4, Melbourne will get better and the three teams the suns beat last year Port, Richmond & Brisbane have improved more than the Suns.
April 11th 2012 @ 7:53am
chrisc101 said | April 11th 2012 @ 7:53am | Report comment
I find the blind faith in the assumption that they will make the Grand Final in 4-5 years incredibly naive or more likely propaganda. Even the Brisbane Broncos haven’t won the comp since 2006 and they have the biggest advantage of any sporting team in the country.
April 11th 2012 @ 8:49am
cos789 said | April 11th 2012 @ 8:49am | Report comment
“Honestly, it needs to stop”
I disagree. People have been putting their heads in the sand and saying its ok because of the greater good. Both clubs have serious problems, and you can only go on throwing money at it for so long.
Only a year in, but clearly somethings have been set up/done poorly at both GC and GWS. A bit of navel gazing at AFL HQ wouldn’t be a bad thing at this point. Some new thinking will be needed for both clubs.
April 11th 2012 @ 11:16am
Macca said | April 11th 2012 @ 11:16am | Report comment
cos789 – I agree the whole need for the expansion teams doesn’t really stack up, sydney still cna’t make money or hold a strong supoorter base despite being there for 30 years and being quite successful for the last decade or more.
Even when these teams become successful on the park (and the will eventually) the success off the park will still elude them.
April 11th 2012 @ 11:47am
Cameron said | April 11th 2012 @ 11:47am | Report comment
the Swans have a strong alebit moderate size supporter base. Still, any Sydney NRL club would love its average crowds even though they have slipped in recent years.
April 11th 2012 @ 11:54am
Macca said | April 11th 2012 @ 11:54am | Report comment
I think the NRL comparison just highlights that Sydneysiders don’t support football whatever the code the same as Melbourne, hence highlighting how difficult GWS is going to find it.
April 11th 2012 @ 4:18pm
Chris said | April 11th 2012 @ 4:18pm | Report comment
I don’t think anyone in the AFL thinks that the GWS project is going to be easy.
And the Swans, while not making large buckets of money, mostly pay their way these days. Remember that they had a couple of seasons where the SCG capacity was reduced due to the Trumper Stand being built. This reduced the ability of the club to sell memberships and get bums on seats. With the northern end of the SCG being redeveloped over the next couple of years the Swans will face this problem again, but I think they’re fundamental financial health is reasonably sound. Certainly better than almost every NRL club and better than many of the Melbourne based AFL clubs too.
April 11th 2012 @ 4:29pm
Macca said | April 11th 2012 @ 4:29pm | Report comment
Leading into 2011, the Swans had lost $1,664,904 over three years, is that really mostly paying their way?
And this is from a side who has had the whole of the sydney market to themselves for 30 years.
April 11th 2012 @ 4:31pm
The Cattery said | April 11th 2012 @ 4:31pm | Report comment
Macca
do you want to return to the VFL days?
April 11th 2012 @ 4:47pm
Macca said | April 11th 2012 @ 4:47pm | Report comment
There is a difference between wanting to go back to the VFL days and not wanting to have the league expand into regions that don’t really want them for no real reason.
I could of got behind the idea of a Tassie side but really 16 sides was plenty.
I will also say this, in the VFL my AFL membership got me into every game without having to buy a seat at an extra cost including the Grand Final (to which I could turn up at 10.30 and take my seat in the northern stand about 10 rows off the fence and not have to stare into the sun all day.
I could also watch 3 games of footy for the day, see some up and comers play in the u/19′s or the 2′s and keep an eye on them for the future. So not all progress has been for the better.
April 11th 2012 @ 4:54pm
The Cattery said | April 11th 2012 @ 4:54pm | Report comment
Macca
this is the big unknown – how would the game be staying at 16 teams for the next 20 years – really hard to know – there’s so much sporting competition these days – you just can’t stand still and hope for the best.
April 11th 2012 @ 5:09pm
Macca said | April 11th 2012 @ 5:09pm | Report comment
The A league isn’t exactly kicking goals with both Newcastle and Gold Coast dropping out and NRL is a long way behind.
You could keep the league at 16 teams and play games in canberra, tassie and western sydney as they have been and keep growing the quality of the game rather than dilluting the talent and pumping money into teams that in 30 years will still not be making a profit.
April 11th 2012 @ 5:36pm
Ian Whitchurch said | April 11th 2012 @ 5:36pm | Report comment
Macca,
Given the fact that Sydney spent more than, say, Western Bulldogs or Port Adelaide on their football department, I dont think a $500k a year loss for each of 3 years is that important.
April 11th 2012 @ 11:24am
The Cattery said | April 11th 2012 @ 11:24am | Report comment
We should judge in 50 years.
April 11th 2012 @ 11:30am
Macca said | April 11th 2012 @ 11:30am | Report comment
Yep that is the strategy of the expansionary supporter, we aren’t allowed to judge until it is a success not matter how long and how much that takes.
April 11th 2012 @ 2:41pm
The Cattery said | April 11th 2012 @ 2:41pm | Report comment
It’s more the strategy of a well run organisation that actually has a strategy. Long term planning is precisely that. For an organisation that is 115 years old, safeguarding a game that is 154 years old, when you talk long term planning, you are talking about many decades, by definition.
Others can worry about what they are doing next week.
The AFL is the sole custodian of the game, other sporting bodies in Australia are not the sole custodian of their game.
April 11th 2012 @ 2:51pm
Macca said | April 11th 2012 @ 2:51pm | Report comment
Sole custodian – I wonder what the VFL, SANFL, WAFL, VCFL etc think about that statement.
And yes you have to think long term but you have to think about everything in between as well if you only worry about the result in 50 years you can find your self out of business long before the pay off. How many millions of dollars over the next 10 to 20 years will GWS soak up? You can’t ignore that and just say don’t worry in 2060 it will be fine.
April 11th 2012 @ 3:16pm
The Cattery said | April 11th 2012 @ 3:16pm | Report comment
They are important state governing bodies and stakeholders in the game, but they sit under the umbrella of the AFL. The AFL doesn’t just look after the competition called the AFL, it looks after the game of Australian Football.
April 11th 2012 @ 3:31pm
Macca said | April 11th 2012 @ 3:31pm | Report comment
If they really wanted to look after the game of Australian football they would scrap the suns and GWS and put the millions of dollars into footbal at the local level to stop more and more clubs merging or folding resulting in shrinking opportunities for peploe to play football.
I played in a league that merged with another league in the early 90′s then got a team from another disloved league in the late 90′s had 4 clubs fold, a couple more leave to go to another league before it got down to 6 teams in the early 2000′s which then saw the league fold, 4 teams merge into 2 and go into one league while the 2 others went into a seperate league. A league that had had more than a dozen teams play in it ended with just 4.
April 11th 2012 @ 3:49pm
The Cattery said | April 11th 2012 @ 3:49pm | Report comment
Macca
or they can try to do all of that at the same time.
The Suns and GWS teams come with academies and plans to increase participation in the Northern states. They feed off each other.
An extra $250 mill in TV money has come in on the strength of an extra game, which will help exisiting clubs and is ploughed back into grassroots footy – no sport spends as much on grassroots sport as does the AFL.
April 11th 2012 @ 3:58pm
Macca said | April 11th 2012 @ 3:58pm | Report comment
Look at where the “grass roots” money is spent, Auskick which is great but if you have 50 kids turning up to Auskick but only one team for them to play in at u/17 level there is a lot of kids who drop out long before getting to senior footy.
And attributing all the $250m to the extra game especially when it is uncompetitive is being a bit generous. And how much of that is going to grass roots footy and how much is going to porp up the Suns & GWS?
And how will an academy (which you have to be already playing the game to get into) in NSW help all the struggling clubs and leagues in VIctoria?
April 11th 2012 @ 7:40pm
The Cattery said | April 11th 2012 @ 7:40pm | Report comment
I think that happens in a lot of sports, let’s be honest by the time you’re 16/17, there are plenty of things competing for your attention (and some of it is pretty hard to resist).
April 11th 2012 @ 8:50am
Redb said | April 11th 2012 @ 8:50am | Report comment
I’m come to the conclusion that McKenna is not up to it as a senior coach. He has an inexperienced coaching panel behind him and just isnt going to take the Suns forward. They need a better tactician as coach.
April 11th 2012 @ 10:28am
Michael DiFabrizio said | April 11th 2012 @ 10:28am | Report comment
Redb, to be fair, I don’t think the cattle are ready to implement the game plan McKenna is trying to introduce.
April 11th 2012 @ 11:51am
Redb said | April 11th 2012 @ 11:51am | Report comment
I dunno. Something is missing. Maybe its a mentor coach?
McKenna served under Malthouse but even Buckley has a mentor coach, as does Hird and now Voss.
April 11th 2012 @ 9:58am
Ryan O'Connell said | April 11th 2012 @ 9:58am | Report comment
When new teams enter the NBA, the league sometimes holds an expansion draft. Essentially, the new team can draft one ‘unprotected’ player from each of the other clubs. I wonder if a similar mechanic would be suitable for the AFL?
Obviously it would need to be slightly adapted in order to be feasible for the AFL, but is there any merit in the thinking? Along with the traditional draft picks and free agent signings, it may help the new clubs be a little more competitive early on.
April 11th 2012 @ 10:35am
Michael DiFabrizio said | April 11th 2012 @ 10:35am | Report comment
Ryan, an expansion draft was definitely one of the options considered by the AFL. Instead, they chose to give them draft picks and a handful of uncontracted players via concessions. The reason was it’d give them a better chance of winning a premiership down the track, assuming they don’t butcher their recruiting, which is fair enough. It’s better if the new teams are successful rather than enjoy a Fremantle-esque early existence.
As for whether you could do an expansion draft-style thing now to bolster their lists, not sure the fans of other clubs would much appreciate it. Remember, with all the draft picks, most fans thought these clubs were being handed premierships on a platter.
April 11th 2012 @ 10:46am
Ryan O'Connell said | April 11th 2012 @ 10:46am | Report comment
It’s a balancing act though. Objective fans (if they exist!) would admit that an overall even competition is probably better for the AFL than having some teams getting pumped. Whilst the league expanding their footprint is a good thing, it is questionable/debatable how beneficial it is if said teams are getting hammered.
I know the AFL are fantastic at long-term planning. But sometimes there is no long term if the short term is terrible.
April 11th 2012 @ 11:02am
Michael DiFabrizio said | April 11th 2012 @ 11:02am | Report comment
Don’t get me wrong, it looks terrible at the moment and the football the Giants and Suns are playing right now wouldn’t be winning too many fans. But if their first 15 years in the comp end up similar to that of the Dockers, then the short and middle term would be underwhelming and the long term almost certainly would not exist.
April 11th 2012 @ 11:52am
Ian Whitchurch said | April 11th 2012 @ 11:52am | Report comment
Ryan,
Thats what giving the new clubs first dibs on the Free Agents *was*.
April 11th 2012 @ 10:18am
Australian Rules said | April 11th 2012 @ 10:18am | Report comment
People need to relax.
If the same thing is happening in 3-4 years…then have the discussion. These are baby teams, they’re taking baby steps.
April 11th 2012 @ 11:09am
Ryan O'Connell said | April 11th 2012 @ 11:09am | Report comment
I know, I know. I’m impatient.
It’s just that I remember going to the West Sydney Razorbacks first game, back when the NBL was rocking. They played the Sydney Kings first up, and there was tension between the two teams right from the start. It was a cracking game, and the Pigs ended up beating them. It was a great start, and really established the team right from their very first game.
Different sport, different times, different dynamics, different variables, can’t compare them, etc, etc. I know, I know.
But it was still brilliant.
April 11th 2012 @ 11:19am
Australian Rules said | April 11th 2012 @ 11:19am | Report comment
Heart beating Victory 2-1 in the first ever A-League derby in front of 25,000 was also an ideal start.
But it’s different here. The AFL want these clubs to grow from the ground up, rather than plonking a ready made side into a suburb. Imagine if a new NRL team could choose the 10 best 18 y.o’s in the country (and a couple of older guys) to field a new team. They would get flogged each week…it’d be an exciting prospect…but they’d get flogged.
April 11th 2012 @ 3:41pm
Patrick Angel said | April 11th 2012 @ 3:41pm | Report comment
Assuming a lot of them were forwards, it would be borderline unethical, a fair chunk of those kids would be crushed (almost literally).
If they did it in the Super Rugby (again assuming there are forwards) I’d say there would be OH&S getting involved.
April 11th 2012 @ 3:58pm
The Cattery said | April 11th 2012 @ 3:58pm | Report comment
It would be interesting to see a pack weighing only 600kg!!
April 11th 2012 @ 10:37am
Macca said | April 11th 2012 @ 10:37am | Report comment
I have said all along that these teams won’t be competitive for years and yet expert commentators have been spewing the AFL propaganda lines, rmember those who thought the Suns would beat the blues round 2 last year? And all the aren’t they just fantastic reports after the GWS got belted in round 1 this year.
To me Carlton are the team that most closely resembles the expansion teams in recent history. After they had numerous retirements and were stripped of draft picks their list was terrible, however they were slightly more competitve because they still had mature bodies.
The blues got Murphy way back in 2005 and it was 2011 before they won a final after adding Judd, Gibbs & Kreuzer plus a number of other top 10 picks.
So if it took the blues 6 years to win a final we are looking at least that long before the Suns & GWS are legitimate threats, especially as the likes of Ablett will have played his best footy by then, salary cap pressure and go home facotrs could start to take some of the top talent from the list and the odd career ending injury is bound to pop up
April 11th 2012 @ 11:35am
Cameron said | April 11th 2012 @ 11:35am | Report comment
People seem to be getting rather anxious about the Suns and giants performing well and doing so quickly.
This is understandable. They will both lose local support quickly if they keep getting flogged, which will happen.
They will both average sub 10000 crowds for years to come, and this will be easy fodder for AFL detractors.
However I cast my mind back to the early 90′s where the Swans were wooden spooners in 92, 93 and 94, average crowds sub 10000. Then success came in 96 where they made the grand final and the Sydney media could not get enough of them. The AFL looks back on history like this which give them hope for the future that one day these teams will be successful, and the support will follow. Most importantly, they have the financial resources to ensure this happens, they are not too concerned with short to medium term failure.
It’s just that the current supporters will need to be very very patient. Remember St Kilda are still alive after 115 years with one premiership
April 11th 2012 @ 11:42am
Macca said | April 11th 2012 @ 11:42am | Report comment
Look at the Swans crowd figures from 2005 until now, about 36-37k from 2005 to 2007 and have gone down to 29k last year, despite being reasonably successful. If you cpare that to North Melbourne who are constantly talked about as being required to merge, fold, or move they had an average attendance of 28k last year down from 31k in 2005 and over a period of little success.
They recorded a profit last year for the first time in 4 years of just $114k.
It’s not just premierships that are the measure of success.
April 11th 2012 @ 11:52am
Cameron said | April 11th 2012 @ 11:52am | Report comment
29K is still great average crowd for a Sydney based sporting side, which are rarely very big. Re my reply to you above how any Sydney NRL side would love to have the average crowds of the Swans
April 11th 2012 @ 12:00pm
Macca said | April 11th 2012 @ 12:00pm | Report comment
But it’s not good for a AFL side and it is going in the wrong direction.
All NRL sides have porr attendence and therefore are equal, the Swans are towards the bottom of AFL attendence and therefore need to be propped up by the AFL.
April 11th 2012 @ 3:17pm
duecer said | April 11th 2012 @ 3:17pm | Report comment
Macca, it may be no good for an AFL side judged by Victorian standards, but is OK for an AFL side judged by NSW or QLD standards – the culture just isn’t there for massive attendances. You will have to wait to see if AFL attendances go up as a whole in Sydney this year or not.
April 11th 2012 @ 4:21pm
Chris said | April 11th 2012 @ 4:21pm | Report comment
Swans crowds have been (and will be) affected by SCG redevelopments. Once the new northern stand gets built, the crowd figures may well climb (assuming the club performs well).
April 11th 2012 @ 1:35pm
Simmo said | April 11th 2012 @ 1:35pm | Report comment
You forgotten about a little thing called the Super League war then, Cameron?
April 11th 2012 @ 2:43pm
The Cattery said | April 11th 2012 @ 2:43pm | Report comment
Let’s not forget that St Kilda won six consecutive wooden spoons during the 80s, to add to their existing big collection.
April 11th 2012 @ 11:49am
Ben Carter said | April 11th 2012 @ 11:49am | Report comment
Hi Michael – I keep thinking back to Sri Lanka’s entry into the cricketing world. Fresh from Associate status, enough wins over Zimbabwe and Holland to earn their Test nation spot in the early 1980s. Fifteen years of defeats, modest success and reasonable ordinary-ness of effort that was at least applauded (or tolerated) by neutral fans later…and they win the World Cup.
April 11th 2012 @ 11:54am
Cameron said | April 11th 2012 @ 11:54am | Report comment
Best example is New Zealand who waited 26 years before winning its first test.
April 11th 2012 @ 11:57am
Ben Carter said | April 11th 2012 @ 11:57am | Report comment
Too true Cam!