An exciting season ahead for the mighty Men in Black
Roar Guru By ohtani's jacket, 19 Apr 2012 The Crowd is a Roar Guru
France advance on the All Blacks' haka (EPA/Kim Ludbrook)
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When Steve Hansen announces his first All Blacks squad next month, it will mark the first time since 1992 that an All Blacks side is named without a black cloud hanging over it.
There will be new coaches of course, and probably some new faces too, but no recriminations, no calls for any player axings and no major overhauls. It will be quite unlike any All Black season in the past 20 years.
I joked recently that winning the World Cup will mean that Hansen will have a grace period of at least one Test.
In reality, he’ll probably have longer than that, just as Henry and Co. did when the All Blacks finished last in what was a hotly contested 2004 Tri-Nations where the home sides won every match.
Hansen will naturally want to continue the All Blacks’ winning ways as a seamless transition from the Henry reign to his own era so as to earn himself a contract extension at the earliest possible date.
For this reason the most challenging task facing the selectors will be who to leave out from the World Cup squad.
Already there is plenty of talk about the form of senior All Blacks, as seen on The Roar over the past few days. This in itself is nothing new: it happens every year during Super Rugby and is a reflection of how much more important Test match rugby is in the minds of most New Zealand rugby fans.
Nevertheless, all eyes will be on Hansen to see which senior players he trusts and which young players he deems ready for Test match rugby.
In my mind, it boils down to tactics.
The All Blacks side that won the World Cup wasn’t a great attacking side. There were signs that they wanted to attack, but due to a mix of injuries and conservative tactics the World Cup was won playing finals football.
Now that monkey is off their back then there may be an opportunity for the All Blacks to play a more attacking brand of rugby.
The challenge in New Zealand rugby is always to win and win playing well, but in order to truly succeed Hansen will have to resist playing conservative, defensive rugby.
There’s not much point grinding out a Bledisloe Cup series victory and a Rugby Championship in the same manner that the World Cup was won. Not in the first year of a new four-year cycle.
The most promising thing about this year’s Super Rugby competition from a New Zealand perspective has been the emergence of several young players who’ve brought some of the excitement back to Super Rugby.
Hansen would do well to continue the same trend into Test match rugby if he wishes to stake his own claim as an outstanding All Black coach.
The three-match series against Ireland ought to provide Hansen with an opportunity to test senior veterans against their understudies as well as fast-track young players to higher honours.
One of the nastier aspects of the previous regime was the way they chewed up and spat out players who didn’t immediately fit within the team puzzle, but since it’s unlikely that too many players will star in all three Tests it will be the perfect opportunity for meaningful rotation.
Personally, I will be disappointed if we see the same skeleton side that won the World Cup play in all three matches. For my money, now that the Cup is over we no longer need utilities playing on the wing or Carter and McCaw playing in every match.
Specifically, I’d like to see Hansen make use of the depth we’re seeing at halfback, first five and fullback. I’d also like to see him mine some youth in the loose forwards and second row.
The temptation will be to stay faithful to the tried and true, but what an exciting year it could be if the All Blacks are a mix of the old and the new.
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- All Blacks, New Zealand rugby, Rugby Union, Rugby World Cup, Steve Hansen
April 19th 2012 @ 2:46am
Ben S said | April 19th 2012 @ 2:46am | Report comment
‘There’s not much point grinding out a Bledisloe Cup series victory and a Rugby Championship in the same manner that the World Cup was won. Not in the first year of a new four-year cycle.’
To an extent, but equally it makes sense to rein in too much extravagance and concentrate on the basics. It would be better to have success to build on rather than good performances but an empty trophy cabinet. Look at England under Lancaster. In terms of attack they were very poor IMO (badly selected), but they had a comparatively successful 6N which should hopefully allow them a platform from which to develop their game. Also, it will be in Hansen’s best interests to have a successful first season in terms of public appreciation and PR. Were I him I’d mix and match a little, but concentrate on developing the depth at lock, back row and 9 but keep the core of the WC side, even if it’s only for a season. In terms of 3N competition SA are in a period of transition and the knives are out for Deans, so a successful 3N would be a real fillip going into the next Test season. That said, without players like Thorn and Kaino I’m not sure the ABs have the option of playing tight forwards football.
April 19th 2012 @ 9:11am
ohtani's jacket said | April 19th 2012 @ 9:11am | Report comment
I think we saw when we ground out the entire season in 2008 that it came back to bite us in 2009. If we keep the World Cup squad together for this year it may make 2013 a difficult season. I’m not suggesting we throw everyone under the bus, but on form I would drop some of them for the Ireland series.
Lock is an interesting one. Sam Whitelock’s 2011 was not very good compared to his 2010 season and Boric, who showed so much promise on the 2010 end of year tour, looks headed for a career marred by injury. I don’t think the selectors can justify picking Ali Williams, but I do think they’ll be sorely tempted to include a guy like Eaton or Donnelly who have had test match experience. It won’t be a position of strength for the All Blacks this year.
April 19th 2012 @ 10:14am
Ben S said | April 19th 2012 @ 10:14am | Report comment
But there were quite a few dead wood players in 2009 that wouldn’t have normally become All Blacks IMO, and the law changes, but I see your point.
I do agree that the series against Ireland is an avenue to test players, however, so pretty much a moot point.
I’m not willing to write off Owen Franks and Sam Whitelock atm, but I think they need to really hit their straps. I think there’s a real lack of depth in the tight five tbh. Yeah, I could see Eaton coming back, but IMO the biggest issue is the 4 lock. I think a lot of NZ locks are basically 5 locks. Also interested to see if a player like Faumiuina will get a crack over Ben Franks.
Tbh, as you allude to there are quite a few jerseys up for grabs. Kaino’s absence means a different style of 6, I would imagine. Cowan is gone and Weepu is (Atm) out of shape which should prompt the youngsters to challenge Ellis. Dagg isn’t at his best (although look at Taylor – does Hansen make a Henryesque WC decision and drop Dagg like Muliaina was dropped?). The 10-12-13 unit looks solid with the Chiefs playing so well at least. Love Cruden’s form.
April 19th 2012 @ 11:11am
ohtani's jacket said | April 19th 2012 @ 11:11am | Report comment
I agree that most of our locks are fives. We’re going to have to mold someone in the number four role. There was that stage we went through where we were having real trouble because both our locks were fives.
Owen Franks has been dropped in the past and probably knows what it takes to come right. I think Woodcock and Owen Franks will continue as the first choice props for the Rugby Championship. Ben Franks will probably make it too. It’s Afoa’s spot that’s up for grabs. Your Charlie Faumuina suggestion is interesting.
Dagg is playing poorly, isn’t he? I thought he was awful against the Stormers. Andre Taylor is the form fullback for my money. I like Ben Smith too but he has concussion issues right now.
April 19th 2012 @ 12:44pm
Riccardo said | April 19th 2012 @ 12:44pm | Report comment
Surprised by his lack of form actually OJ.
Rushing off the line to be stepped by a forward in his own 22 FFS!
I’m a big fan of Taylor’s. To quote another roarer “Cullenesque” and an opportunity against Ireland beckons.
April 19th 2012 @ 8:34pm
Sylvester said | April 19th 2012 @ 8:34pm | Report comment
Dagg was awful against the Bulls, but played well against the Stormers. He did kick a lot, but that was the game plan. He started the season slowly last year too, but was humming by the WC.
I reckon he deserves first crack based on his WC efforts.
April 20th 2012 @ 5:38am
mania said | April 20th 2012 @ 5:38am | Report comment
syl – dagg was average against the stormers. one of the stormers tries was from daggs aimless bomb that put his utside backs under pressure. daggs good but needs to cut down on his error rate
April 19th 2012 @ 9:50pm
Ben S said | April 19th 2012 @ 9:50pm | Report comment
I’m presuming that Ben Franks will take the bench spot with his ability to cover 1 and 3. I don’t think Faumuina is ready for Test rugby yet, but he’s stepped up from last season IMO and it wouldn’t do him any harm to be exposed to a little bit pre-3N. I’m also intrigued to see who gets the 3rd hookers spot (presuming that Hore is retained).
Yeah, I like Smith too. He’s a classy player. Lot of time on the ball.
Like you say re: Franks, I would imagine that a lot of the more experienced players know what Test rugby requires, and a tune up against Ireland might be what they need.
April 19th 2012 @ 3:06am
Jiggles said | April 19th 2012 @ 3:06am | Report comment
I’ve been quietly impressed with TJ Perenara so far this year. He seems to be able to make decisions quickly and with purpose. He is only 19 so I don’t think you would give him a cap yet, but having him around the squad may be beneficial for his future development. I think the young half backs coming through now (Smith, Perenara and Kerr-Barlow) are some of the better number 9s New Zealand has seen in some time.
April 19th 2012 @ 9:14am
ohtani's jacket said | April 19th 2012 @ 9:14am | Report comment
At this stage, I think Ellis will be the first choice halfback. I would like to see Hansen take one of the young guys and play him off the bench, including starts throughout the season. I doubt they’ve given up on Weepu just yet, but he’s one of the guys I would drop for the Ireland series.
April 19th 2012 @ 11:01am
nickoldschool said | April 19th 2012 @ 11:01am | Report comment
I read that Weepu is on Perpignan’s list (Top14) for next season. Either him or Duvenage (Stormers) or Ben Lucas ( Reds). Early days still but i think many French teams are already shopping around.
April 19th 2012 @ 11:14am
ohtani's jacket said | April 19th 2012 @ 11:14am | Report comment
Weepu’s fall from grace from cult hero to getting flack on twitter all the time is some kind of bizarre reflection on social media. If I was Weepu I’d just keep plugging away. As soon as we lose there will be calls to bring him back.
April 19th 2012 @ 2:23pm
Jiggles said | April 19th 2012 @ 2:23pm | Report comment
You definitely wouldn’t give up on Weepu, as he always lifts in Black. I suspect that those 2 plus one of the young 3 I mentioned would be in the squad this year, however I can’t see either Ellis (who I have never really been a fan of) or Weepu lasting until 2015 So I think you will see more of the younger 3 sooner rather than later in black.
April 19th 2012 @ 2:35pm
nickoldschool said | April 19th 2012 @ 2:35pm | Report comment
I agree with you Jiggles, it’s just that Weepu himslef might well have given up on playing for the ABs as he has lost his starting XV spot with his struggling team.
To see him laughing with an opponent after their last defeat made me think that the guy might now have other goals in the near future and to read a few days later that he was on OS’s lists just made more sense.
April 20th 2012 @ 5:56am
mania said | April 20th 2012 @ 5:56am | Report comment
piri’s not ready . ellis is reliable. aSmith and perenara are good but i’m leaning towards kerr-barlow
April 19th 2012 @ 3:26am
Johnno said | April 19th 2012 @ 3:26am | Report comment
Adam thompson for mind has really stepped up and also I have liked some of Victor Vito’s work. Matt Todd too looks to have a future as well as a top class no 7 who will challenge Mccaw not next year but this year, Mccaw is a fetcher who is 31 32 this year, not many no 7′s make it past 30 at the top level think kronfield, micheal joens switched to no 6.
Kahui has really impressed me as has SBW.
Kaino löss will be hit though no doubt.
But some good young forwards . one bloke called shields i think his name is at the hurricanes i like.
So NZ rugby will be strong as usual, but i think this year’s team wont be as strong as last year’s men in black.
But no brad Thorn or no Kaino are 2 big physical enforcers gone from there starting pack n 2012 that will be hard to replace no question.
ANd i think the likes of kevin me alma, ali williams, Piri weep, Ma Nonu, are all getting old all in 30′s except Weepu but he is 28 , 29 this year and overweight.
ALl those players are now at there careers where they are going backwards not forwards the beginning of the end for them.
Jimmy cowman us leaving at end of year too.
Andy ellis has not convinced me either yet,.
But Araon cruden is a big improver, no steve donald for back up but they will be fine. Dan Carter has just turned 30 too.
Ben smith the full back i have liked too, and conrad smith is in the form of his life.
But there will be some fresh faces this year in 2012 .it may be like the BABY BLACKS led by captian Buck shelford in 1986 vs France , this year’s All Black team.
April 19th 2012 @ 10:09am
ohtani's jacket said | April 19th 2012 @ 10:09am | Report comment
Adam Thomson is a good Super Rugby player, but I’m yet to be convinced that he has the skill set to be a good test match player. He’s had good performances in an All Black jersey but they were under different laws where he could make a real nuisance of himself. He’s not really a blindside in the Collins/Kaino mode and he’s not a very good openside either. I’m not sure it’s clear where he fits in yet.
Kronfeld played openside through to the end of his test match career, but he was gone at 29. McCaw is an interesting situation as he’s one of those rare iconic All Black figures during his own playing time. Nobody’s going to suggest that they drop McCaw right now. But if his form deteriorates it will be very, very interesting. I’m sure he’d retire on his own terms like Fitzpatrick and Umaga. It’s just a question of when.
April 19th 2012 @ 10:31am
justsaying said | April 19th 2012 @ 10:31am | Report comment
I’m surprised there’s so little discussion about moving McCaw to 6 to replace Kaino and blooding a new openside. McCaw is slower and more physically imposing than in the days when he was renowned as a fetcher – I think it would be a great time for him to make the switch. There are some classy opensides coming through (Todd, Lowe, Cane, Braid) and now would be a good time to expose them to test match rugby, especially given that there’s so much experienced cover at 6 (Read, Vito, Thomson, Messam).
April 19th 2012 @ 11:19am
ohtani's jacket said | April 19th 2012 @ 11:19am | Report comment
McCaw has never really looked good playing at 6 or 8, though. Defensively I think he’s still capable of playing at openside as he remains an excellent tackler, but it remains to be seen whether he has any athleticism left. Personally, I’ve enjoyed the evolution in McCaw’s game since he shifted away from being an out and out fetcher. It helps that the All Blacks have a number of other strong pilfers like Andrew Hore and Conrad Smith, however.
April 19th 2012 @ 5:14am
sixo_clock said | April 19th 2012 @ 5:14am | Report comment
With the dorsal gorilla of WC success finally surgically removed it is a great opportunity for the AB’s to institute form over hype. Whomever pulls on the Silver Fern grows extra arms, height… Taking the selection decisions away from the coaches would benefit Oz Rugby, it may be the same for you.
April 19th 2012 @ 6:31am
Riccardo said | April 19th 2012 @ 6:31am | Report comment
The emergence of some young talent across the park during Super Rugby thus far validates your excitement OJ.
Hopeful that guys like Andre Taylor, Perenara, Aaron Smith, Ben Smith, Horrell, Retallick to name but a few get some game time or at least experience within the national camp.
As Jiggles has alluded to the talent on display in the halves is also exciting. Cruden’s applying the torch to Carter and Piri has 3 very able replacements in Ellis, Smith and Perenara should Jenny Craig not work her magic.
Areas of concern may be the locks and BS flanker. Boric is injured and Ali Williams is genuinely suffering the hangover Vanillla Gorilla and Michael Warren have alluded to in recent days on the Roar. And how do you replace legends Brad Thorn and Jerome Kaino?
Sam Whitelock, Tom Donnelly, Jason Eaton and maybe even young Retallick should be contenders at lock and Adam Thompson has been playing well at 6 for the Highlanders so cover appears adequate.
Hopefully this cocktail leads to enterprising Test Rugby from the Men in Black emulating some of what has been on display during Super Rugby so far.
April 19th 2012 @ 10:13am
ohtani's jacket said | April 19th 2012 @ 10:13am | Report comment
What I don’t want to see is the young guys get told that they need to continue their form over the ITM Cup and then maybe they’ll get a call-up for the end of year tour, where they’ll play one match against Italy with a makeshift line-up that doesn’t allow anyone to shine.
April 19th 2012 @ 10:34am
justsaying said | April 19th 2012 @ 10:34am | Report comment
In some situations I think that approach is warranted. Cruden, for example, was sent away to hone his game in the ITM Cup, and came in to replace Slade at RWC with confidence sky-high, having clearly ironed out some of the major flaws in his game. I think regular ITM Cup play can do a lot more for developing players than riding the pine through test matches with the odd 20-minute cameo…
April 19th 2012 @ 11:31am
ohtani's jacket said | April 19th 2012 @ 11:31am | Report comment
That may be true, but I always thought Cruden’s failure against the Wallabies was a terrible tactical display from the All Black coaches. It was clear that Cruden wasn’t ready and didn’t have the kicking game for test match rugby and he’s benefitted greatly from working with Rennie and Smith this season, but other guys haven’t been so fortunate. Henry & Co. churned through an enormous amount of players in eight years and it wasn’t always a case of player deficiencies.
April 19th 2012 @ 12:26pm
justsaying said | April 19th 2012 @ 12:26pm | Report comment
I don’t think playing Cruden against the Wallabies was the error – by that point he was the established understudy and they didn’t really have a choice. If anything the error was picking him in the squad in the first place. But that just proves my point that trying to develop test match players by sticking them on the bench behind the incumbents is not all it’s cracked up to be – sometimes week in week out rugby in the ITM Cup will do better service to the player. Ideally, of course, we would still have midweek games so that fringe players could get the best of both worlds by being exposed to the All Black setup as well as getting regular game time, but I can’t see that happening any time soon (I can’t really see why it’s not possible, to be honest, but I suppose that’s a topic for another day).
April 19th 2012 @ 9:20am
katzilla said | April 19th 2012 @ 9:20am | Report comment
I’d def like to see that non-usage of utilities applied to 7 also.
There’s no reason Thompson should be used to cover 7 anymore, Matt Todd should get his chance.
Give the captaincy to Read for a few and bring McCaw off the bench.
The only problem with all these new halfbacks is whether it will effect the chance Carter might be replaced.
Unlikely that we’d start a test with a rookie halfback and sophomore First five.
So likely combinations to be either Carter/Perenara(or smith) or Ellis/Cruden.
April 19th 2012 @ 10:18am
ohtani's jacket said | April 19th 2012 @ 10:18am | Report comment
I guess we’ll soon find out whether the utility cover was a Henry thing. It’ll be interesting to see whether they rest McCaw this year. Is there really any point in him playing all 15 tests if available? With Carter, if his switch to 12 becomes permanent with the Crusaders we may see more of him in that position at test match level particularly if SBW bolts and Nonu continues to slide.
April 19th 2012 @ 12:33pm
kiwidave said | April 19th 2012 @ 12:33pm | Report comment
Spot on, we have plenty of sevens to back up McCaw, we just have to pick them.
April 19th 2012 @ 9:51am
Brett McKay said | April 19th 2012 @ 9:51am | Report comment
OJ, what chances of a J.Cowan farewell Test in Dunedin later in the year??
April 19th 2012 @ 10:22am
ohtani's jacket said | April 19th 2012 @ 10:22am | Report comment
I think it’s highly unlikely that Cowan will play for the All Blacks this season. I think he knows it too as he keeps talking about playing for Southland. If Ellis is injured and Weepu can’t improve his form and fitness they might call in Cowan, but I’ve only see one Highlanders game where I thought he came on and played well and that was when they were tearing the opposition apart.
April 19th 2012 @ 10:29am
Brett McKay said | April 19th 2012 @ 10:29am | Report comment
yeah, fair point. I did note that the only Test in Dunedin is an RC game against the ‘Boks, which kind of removes any chances of sentimentality. Had it been one of the Tests in June, you’d nearly set your clocks by it..
April 19th 2012 @ 11:12am
Moaman said | April 19th 2012 @ 11:12am | Report comment
*What they do with Messers McCaw and Carter will be pivotal.Ordinarily it would be hard to justify picking either for the 1st test of June except based on what they have done in the past with limited match-play behind them.RM might only have some minutes on the field in SR eg before the squad is announced.Personally I would like to see Cruden start(unless Carter shows dramatic improvement)and the likes of Todd given a crack at 7 until RM has some meaningful gametime under his belt.I know this won’t be a popular view but stars or not I’d love to see them earn their spots afresh like everyone else.Woodcock fought his way back in after Owen Franks was blooded and I expect the same yardstick to be applied.But will it be?
April 19th 2012 @ 11:37am
ohtani's jacket said | April 19th 2012 @ 11:37am | Report comment
If McCaw wasn’t the captain I don’t think he would play in the Ireland series. As it stands, he might not recover in time. It wouldn’t surprise me if Keiran Read captains that series. Carter has enough time to play himself into form and I can’t imagine Hansen having the grapefruits to leave both of them out of the series. Whoever is Carter’s back-up should start in at least one of the tests, however.
April 19th 2012 @ 11:41am
Moaman said | April 19th 2012 @ 11:41am | Report comment
They would need to be the size of grapefruit too because no coach wants to be the 1st to lose a match to the Irish!
But I agree OJ….be it Cruden or whoever…..sooner rather than later. With Kaino absent..the whole loose forward trio might need to be looked at.Read is a given at 8 and would make a great skipper I reckon but do we need a traditional type fetcher a la Matt Todd or will they go for more utiltarian types like Thomson/Messam eg?
April 19th 2012 @ 11:55am
ohtani's jacket said | April 19th 2012 @ 11:55am | Report comment
Ireland don’t have a specialist openside to the best of my knowledge so Hansen could probably go down the Thomson/Messam route and get away with it, but it doesn’t really work. Todd hasn’t really set the world on fire this year, but I think it would be worth trying.
I think they’ll end up either playing Kahui or a fullback on the left wing but I’d really like to see a specialist return to that position.
April 19th 2012 @ 12:11pm
Moaman said | April 19th 2012 @ 12:11pm | Report comment
” Todd hasn’t really set the world on fire this year..” In terms of turnovers you may be right….but I believe he made 21 tackles last game! If the fetcher is doing the tackling-as we saw with Pocock last year-their capacity for effecting turnovers directly are nullified somewhat.Your wish about specialists on the wings may fall on deaf ears;with the amount of kicking going on the coaches may opt for safety-first as far as possible and pick men who can catch&kick really well.Wulf has been quite impressive this season whereas Gear hasn’t looked anything like as sharp as he was when playing for NZ Maori eg.As usual,Wing is a contentious spot with lots of candidates.
April 19th 2012 @ 12:40pm
justsaying said | April 19th 2012 @ 12:40pm | Report comment
Is it just me or is the “fetcher” model of loose forward becoming outmoded anyway? With the exception of Pocock and perhaps Brussouw, most of the leading loose forwards in world rugby (think McCaw, Dusautoir, Burger and pretty much every Northern Hemisphere 7) don’t really fit that mold. Maybe it will be the more mobile front rowers who will take over this role, the obvious example being Andrew Hore…
It’s interesting that Cory Jane has pretty much resigned himself to playing wing for the Canes now, and even more interesting when you realise that the incumbent Canes fullback, Andre Taylor, is a converted winger with next to no top level experience at fullback. Seems like the reality of the modern game is that all of the back 3 need the total fullback skillset…
I don’t think Kahui’s in there because he’s a utility – I just think he’s too good to leave out!
April 19th 2012 @ 12:49pm
ohtani's jacket said | April 19th 2012 @ 12:49pm | Report comment
I’m convinced that Gear is a finisher and that you need to create space for him. I probably won’t get my wish for a specialist as there’s nobody in waiting.
April 19th 2012 @ 12:49pm
Riccardo said | April 19th 2012 @ 12:49pm | Report comment
Dingo winced when he read your post Moa.
Cruden should start at least one of the Irish matches.
April 19th 2012 @ 2:34pm
Moaman said | April 19th 2012 @ 2:34pm | Report comment
Riccardo! Nice to know that Dingo reads the Roar!!!
Justsaying; “is the “fetcher” model of loose forward becoming outmoded anyway?” Might be outmoded but not necessarily no longer useful depending on the type of game/practictioner etc but it was what I was hinting at anyway……when I said maybe we need to look again at the 6-7 mix with Kaino away and RM injured/unfit. Agree about Kahui but if there is a specialist who can fit the bill…..
April 19th 2012 @ 5:07pm
Campbell Watts said | April 19th 2012 @ 5:07pm | Report comment
I like the sound of a McCaw, Thompson, Read backrow. All high workrate, solid defence, 2 link-men with the backs, a left and right side threat at the breakdown for turnovers, all options at lineout time – what’s not to like?!?!
With a lock/BS cover the likes of Hoeata and Messam on the bench you’d have grunt to burn and great impact off the bench.
As alluded to above the dearth of solid locks at 4 is a worry – I like the look of Hoeata as a Brad Thorn replacement. He seems to be a little less agressive and a little smarter this year, giving away less penalties.