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UFC 145, Jones v Evans: Roaring Predictions

21st April, 2012
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Roar Guru
21st April, 2012
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2045 Reads

Finally all the talking is over and we’re down to only a scant few hours before Jon Jones and Rashad Evans step into the cage to battle for the light heavyweight title in the main event of UFC 145.

After a couple of missed connections over the last year, Atlanta’s Philips Arena will be the site for what has been one of the most anticipated match-ups in UFC history. While the fervour died down a little in the final days, I expect the energy to crescendo again Saturday night as these former friends stand 32 feet apart in the Octagon with top spot in the 205-pound division hanging in the balance.

All we’re missing is a bucket of popcorn, a couple of ice-cold beverages, and the first installment of the Roaring Predictions.

Jon Jones (15-1) versus Rashad Evans (17-1-1)
Jon Jones should win this fight, and he probably will win this fight, but my Spidey Sense is telling me that it will be Rashad Evans who walks out of UFC 145 as the light heavyweight champion.

Since I’m not one to ignore the mystical powers given to a fictitious character in a comic book, I’m picking Evans.

The challenger isn’t the massive underdog the bookies have him listed as, at least not in my opinion. The guy has lost just once in his career, and has looked his best over his last two fights.

For this pick to work out, Evans needs to come out hot, showing that he’s not afraid of the ‘Jon Jones mystique’ that keeps everyone else ready to backpedal. He has to get inside to be effective, and Evans can’t be timid looking for his entry or Jones will make him pay.

Lyoto Machida had some success against Jones in the first round of their fight because the champ likes to take his time and feel out his opponents. Evans must capitalise on that, and put Jones on his heals right away. If he can shake the champion’s confidence early, he’ll have a better chance to coming away with the win.

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In my vision of how this works out in Evans’ favour, he connects on Jones early, plants him with a couple takedowns, and lands a finishing counter right somewhere in the second or third round.

Prediction: Rashad Evans by TKO, Round 3

Rory MacDonald (12-1) versus Che Mills (14-4)
Mills is a much tougher opponent than people are letting on; his lack of UFC experience doing him in when it comes to people breaking down this fight.

That being said, MacDonald has already shown he’s soon to be considered among the elite in the welterweight division, and this should serve as the next step in his journey to the upper echelon.

Unfortunately for Mills, I think this one comes down to his lack of wrestling. We’ve seen MacDonald throw Nathan Diaz around the cage, as well as having taken down each of his three other opponents during the course of their fights.

I don’t see MacDonald wasting too much time standing with Mills, who has knockout power galore in the striking game. As soon as he can get in close, MacDonald will hit his favourite takedown an outside trip from a bodylock position, move to a dominant position, and find a submission; my guess is he goes for an armbar.

Prediction: Rory MacDonald, Submission, round one

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Ben Rothwell (31-8) versus Brendan Schaub (8-2)
Though this is a pivotal fight for both men, I think Schaub has more of an ability to do something about the situation than his opponent.

Rothwell is a serviceable big man who has carved out a nice career for himself, but heavyweight is becoming a more athletic division, and athletic isn’t a word I would use to describe the big man from Kenosha, Wisconsin.

Provided Schaub doesn’t fall in love with his uppercut (or any of his strikes) mid-fight like he did against Rodrigo Nogueira back in Brazil, this is his fight to lose. He’s a much better athlete, and should use his speed and mobility to pick-and-pop early.

Rothwell is notorious for having a bad gas tank, so if Schaub can keep the pressure on throughout the first, he should find himself with an opportunity to finish the fight somewhere in the second.

Prediction: Brendan Schaub, TKO, round two

Miguel Torres (40-4) versus Michael McDonald (14-1)
I absolutely love this fight, and I absolutely hate having to pick against Torres, someone I respect a great deal, and someone that I consider a friend.

But business is business, and I think this is the fight where everyone realises that Michael McDonald means business.

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Just 21 years old, “Mayday” has serious power in his hands, and the kind of aggressive style that is a strong counter to Torres’ new patient, jab-based approach. If this was a couple years ago and we were talking about Torres from his days as WEC champion, it might be a different story, but he’s almost too passive now, and McDonald will exploit that.

Though Torres has done a very good job of using his length to keep opponents on the outside, McDonald won’t be content staying on the end of Torres’ jab. The talented prospect is willing to eat shots to get inside, and that’s precisely how I see this fight going down: Torres will paw from space, McDonald will press forward, eat a few shots as Torres tries to circle out, and BANG!

That’s all she wrote.

Prediction: Michael McDonald, TKO, round one

Mark Hominick (20-10) versus Eddie Yagin (15-5-1)
Hominick endured a difficult year last year with the unexpected death of his long-time coach, mentor, and best friend Shawn Tompkins. After being too anxious and over-extending right out of the gate last time, I expect this one to be vintage Hominick, and that’s bad news for Yagin.

When he’s not throwing careless, wild right hands in the opening second of a fight, Hominick is an expert marksman with his striking. Smooth, technically brilliant, and packing solid pop, he should pick apart Yagin from the outset, turning it up as the opening round ticks away.

I honestly see this fight playing out very much like Hominick’s win over George Roop in January 2011: a completely one-sided display of hands from the Thamesford, Ontario native that ends with a finish before the opening frame is over.

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Prediction: Mark Hominick, TKO, round one

Mark Bocek (10-4) versus John Alessio (34-14)
Being Canadian, I feel like I should be able to abstain from picking this fight so as to not offend one of my fellow countrymen. That’s not my style though, so here goes…

Alessio has a solid all-around game and will be working diligently to keep this standing, while alternately trying to take Bocek’s head off from the word go. Unfortunately for the returning veteran, I don’t think he’s going to be able to keep Bocek from bringing him to the canvas.

Alessio struggled in the grappling department with Ryan Healy a month ago, and Bocek is orders of magnitude better than Healy when it comes to the ground game.

I anticipate Bocek eating a couple of shots on his way into the clinch, but once he gets his hands on Alessio, he’ll take him down and control him on the ground. Seven of Bocek’s 10 career victories have been submissions, and I expect him to get his eighth finish here.

Prediction: Mark Bocek, Submission, round two

Preliminary Card Predictions
Travis Browne over Chad Griggs, TKO, round one
Stephen Thompson over Matt Brown – unanimous decision
Anthony Njokuani over John Makdessi – unanimous decision
Mac Danzig over Efrain Escudero – unanimous decision
Chris Clements over Keith Wisniewski – TKO, round two
Maximo Blanco over Marcus Brimage – TKO, round one

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