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UFC 145: Jones vs Evans preview and predictions

Roar Guru
20th April, 2012
4

This Sunday, the UFC brings fight fans one of the most sought-after grudge matches in recent memory at UFC 145: Jones versus Evans.

The event will be held at the Philips Arena in Atlanta, Georgia, and the main event will be decide the UFC light-heavyweight championship.

As far as rivalries go, this one has been filled with drama, broken partnerships and bitter emotions. But how does it stack up to the rest of MMA history’s bitter disputes? Let’s find out.

Hatred
The basis of any rivalry is two guys that simply dislike each other. The sport’s history is filled with hate-fuelled fights that at times bordered on obsessive (see: Ortiz versus Shamrock, W. Silva versus Q. Jackson, Lesnar versus Mir).

Judging from the UFC Primetime shows and media interviews, the actual hatred in this rivalry has been relatively mild. The combatants seem to be more bitter about their training camp drama than each other. The desire to prove their superiority is there but it’s mainly driven by competitiveness rather than sheer disdain. Ali-Frazier, it ain’t.

Score: 6/10

Trash talk
Hatred fuels harsh words, and this sentiment is never truer than in a sport where the participants can literally beat their opponent into silence. Trash talk can sometimes make or break a pay-per-view: Ortiz versus Shamrock two and three certainly weren’t built on championship ramifications.

Evans has been known to verbally hold his own against the sport’s finest talkers. However, his best work comes when he’s reacting to an instigator (e.g. ‘Rampage’).

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The recent changes in his personal and professional life seemed to have dulled his edge as well. On the other hand, Jones has always been more arrogant than braggadocios. While his holier-than-thou aura can definitely rub people the wrong way, his actual trash talk is kept to a minimum.

Score: 6/10

History
Aside from hatred, rivalries are also built upon a shared history. If Rome wasn’t built in a day, then it certainly didn’t make enemies in a day either. The best rivalries are those born from a sustained period of conflict.

In this regard, the Jones-Evans spat ranks up there with the very best. A slew of injuries postponed Evans’ title shot against ‘Shogun’ Rua, who subsequently lost the belt to Jones.

Having once been teammates under Greg Jackson’s tutelage, Evans split from the Albuquerque team when the fight with Jones was made official. Another series of injuries, replacements and a title defence lead to their scheduled meeting this Sunday. Given the friends-turned-enemies angle, plus the rivalry’s longevity of over two years, the stage is set for MMA’s most dramatic bout in recent memory.

Score: 10/10

Summary
So while this rivalry isn’t the most intense that fight fans have witnessed, its drawn-out drama has resulted in a fight worth clamouring for. The question now is, can Evans topple Jones?

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Stylistically, the former collegiate wrestlers fit the infamous mould that Greg Jackson’s disciples seem to follow: decent strikers with dominant wrestling who seek to dominate the top position once the fight hits the ground. This style has been derogatorily referred to as “lay-and-pray”.

Jones is the stronger of the two, which will most likely result in him getting the better of the wrestling. While Evans has more knockout power and speed in his strikes, Jones’ 84-inch reach presents a puzzle that even precision strikers like ‘Shogun’ Rua and Lyoto Machida couldn’t solve.

Though neither man is known for their submission prowess, Jones has finished three of his last four opponents with a submission manoeuvre. In contrast, Evans’ last submission win came in 2004 before his time on The Ultimate Fighter.

Overall, Jones can out-grapple, out-strike and match Evans’ wrestling, but with a bigger and stronger frame to back it up.

Prediction: Jones by submission in round two.

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