Super Rugby Champions will be decided in round 17
Roar Guru By LeftArmSpinner, 2 May 2012 LeftArmSpinner is a Roar Guru
- Tagged:
- ACT Brumbies, Canterbury Crusaders, Queensland Reds, Rugby Union, Super Rugby, waikato chiefs
Chiefs Arizona Taumalolo punches the air. AAP Image/SNPA, Ross Setford
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The winners of the round 17 clash between the Chiefs and Crusaders in Hamilton on Friday July 6 will also win the 2012 Super Rugby Championship.
If the Chiefs beat the Crusaders, they will finish in both conference and overall first place on 72 points. The Crusaders will finish fourth on 67 points. If the Crusaders win, they will finish in first place for both conference and overall on 71 points. The Chiefs will finish fourth on 68 points.
Only a New Zealand team can finish in overall first place. This is for several reasons, such as:
1. The Stormers’ inability to score enough “four try” bonus points and hence challenge a new Zealand team for the first place on the overall competition table (they have earned just one bonus point from nine games, compared to the Chiefs three and the Crusaders five);
2. The Australian conference winners not winning enough games to challenge a New Zealand team for that same overall first place;
3. The massive benefit of home ground advantage that overall first place provides, particularly avoiding the mid-finals trip to South Africa;
4. The round 17 game has an eight point impact on the relative scores of the teams.
I assume that there will be no upset wins. The lure of the finals always concentrates the minds of the aspiring finalists as much as the thoughts of a few weeks off on a beach relaxes the minds of teams that have missed the playoffs.
Both the Chiefs, away and Crusaders, at home, will need to defeat the Highlanders.
If either the Chiefs or the Crusaders were to lose to the Highlanders, despite winning the round 17 clash, the Stormers would finish first in both conference and overall and become favourites to win the 2012 competition.
If the Highlanders were to defeat both the Chiefs and Crusaders, they would finish first on 69 in conference and tied for first, overall, with the Stormers. The Stormers currently have a 41 point advantage in the for/against.
There are other crucial games still to be played, that will determine the conference standings and minor placings overall.
The Brumbies play the Queensland Reds and Waratahs twice. They will miss the play offs only if they lose all three games. The Brumbies successor would be decided by the Reds V Waratahs game in round 18.
The Stormers would need to lose away to the Sharks in round 14, away to the Bulls in round 15 and lose to another team to miss winning the South African Conference.
I predict that the Chiefs will overcome the Crusaders in round 17 due to the combination of their massive pack and brilliant backline together with home advantage for that game.
The Chiefs will then go on to win their first Super Rugby Competition after wins over the Crusaders in the Semi Final and the Stormers in the grand final.
The final competition table will be:
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May 2nd 2012 @ 5:38am
mania said | May 2nd 2012 @ 5:38am | Report comment
good analysis but this only takes into account no upsets
May 2nd 2012 @ 8:05am
LeftArmSpinner said | May 2nd 2012 @ 8:05am | Report comment
The reason is that as the season progresses, the better teams gel better and are more motivated by the impending finals while their opponents don’t have the same motivation, particularly those with years left on their contracts.
May 2nd 2012 @ 7:18am
Bobby_JJV said | May 2nd 2012 @ 7:18am | Report comment
Nice article. Lets hope the momentum this years super 15 has displayed so far can continue! I see you beleive that the Blues will finally string together some wins aswell, with the Rebels set to loose all but 1 or 2 for the rest of the season haha nice.
May 2nd 2012 @ 8:09am
LeftArmSpinner said | May 2nd 2012 @ 8:09am | Report comment
The blues will beat the Lion’s and the force and get another bye also. They also get two bonus points, well at least by my calculates and predictions.
May 2nd 2012 @ 8:19am
Adam_JJV said | May 2nd 2012 @ 8:19am | Report comment
So you think the Canes will beat them again this weekend?
May 2nd 2012 @ 8:14am
Adam_JJV said | May 2nd 2012 @ 8:14am | Report comment
The only thing I disagree with is, I think the Crusaders will win the comp. The signs are looking ominous and they really can only get better. With the eventual return to form of Dan Carter and the return of Richie McCaw they will be hard to topple.
May 2nd 2012 @ 10:43am
LeftArmSpinner said | May 2nd 2012 @ 10:43am | Report comment
if they win the round 17 game, they can win it. the saders didnt go so well against the Tahs in the first half. the tahs didnt let them get into stride either.
Carter was quiet on Sunday. McCaw is a legend but wont make a great difference on the paddock.
May 2nd 2012 @ 11:18am
Adam_JJV said | May 2nd 2012 @ 11:18am | Report comment
Carter was quiet because he is still nursing his groin, which is why he still isnt kicking that much. Cant deny Tom Taylor’s form though (especially goal kicking)
You are right, McCaw is a legend, His presence alone is enough for guys to step up to the next level.
May 2nd 2012 @ 8:49am
Ben S said | May 2nd 2012 @ 8:49am | Report comment
The Chief’s don’t have a particularly massive pack, tbh. I’d expect the Crusaders tight five to get the better of them and would wager the Crusaders back row is convincingly stronger too.
May 2nd 2012 @ 10:39am
Brett McKay said | May 2nd 2012 @ 10:39am | Report comment
Ben, the Chiefs do have a decent front row though, and as Paul Cully pointed out recently (pretty sure it was Paul), the Franks boys have certainly missed the drive of Brad Thorn behind them. The Crusaders back row may be stronger, but the Chiefs have shown time and again this year that if they can win the hit, they can certainly hold their own…
May 2nd 2012 @ 3:43pm
jeznez said | May 2nd 2012 @ 3:43pm | Report comment
It was Paul Cully in an excellent article for the SMH.
The scrum battle in this round 17 game should be immense. The Chiefs definitely won that facet of play in their earlier meeting – there were certainly a few calls from the Crusaders to the ref in the game saying they didn’t think that was happening legally.
Despite the Waratahs shading the scrum battle on Saturday the Crusaders are coming back into form in this area so an keen to watch that battle.
Interestingly the Tahs scrum has been dominant in all the matches it has played (sometimes only slightly dominant, if that isn’t a contradiction). With the Chiefs and Crusaders being the sternest tests so far. Really looking forward to how they compete with the Brumbies, Bulls, Stormers and Cheetahs in the coming weeks.
May 2nd 2012 @ 9:57pm
Ben S said | May 2nd 2012 @ 9:57pm | Report comment
Yeah, totally. Ben Tameifuna has looked good (what a unit), and I think Elliot has shown improvements, and Taumalolo has been a great carrier, but I think technically the Crusaders should have the edge, especially as they are able to bench one of the Franks and/or Crockett.
Funny you should mention the absence of Thorn because I recall reading an interview with Ben Franks (I think it was Ben) where he seemed pretty sore about Taumalolo’s celebrations following a series of good scrums against him. Bit of agitation there!
May 3rd 2012 @ 2:03am
jeznez said | May 3rd 2012 @ 2:03am | Report comment
Schwalger is an excellent scrummaging number 2 and Taumalolo is more than a ball carrier these days. The Tongan scrum when he came on at LHP put the hammers on the ABs during the opening game of the RWC. I’m not sure where it came from for him but his improvement in the last twelve months has been phenomenal.
May 3rd 2012 @ 2:09am
Ben S said | May 3rd 2012 @ 2:09am | Report comment
I always find it curious when people say some hookers are good scrummagers but others are not. Why do you think Schwalger is an excellent scrummager?
May 3rd 2012 @ 11:02am
jeznez said | May 3rd 2012 @ 11:02am | Report comment
Just the stability and strength of the scrum when he is on, Elliot is a superior ball runner but when Schwalger comes on the Chiefs scrum looks a little bit steadier in my opinion.
It is hard to look at the hookers technique from a distance or on TV but quite often you can compare the scrum before and after a hooker’s substitution and form an opinion.
The most stark example I’ve ever seen of this was early in Polota-Nau’s career he used to get subbed on for Adam Freier. In one match against the Chiefs, the Waratahs scrum went from backpedaling to taking tightheads – and he was the only substitution in either pack.
May 3rd 2012 @ 10:49pm
Ben S said | May 3rd 2012 @ 10:49pm | Report comment
Fair enough, but what about a hooker adding impact simply because he’s fresh legs coming into a tired scrum? I’m not doubting you, it just seems like a few different factors could be at play.
May 2nd 2012 @ 9:20am
Brett McKay said | May 2nd 2012 @ 9:20am | Report comment
Leftie, I can’t disagree with this too much, even without seeing how you’ve come to the final tallies you have. A few weeks ago I wrote that I was pretty sure that one of the Stormers, Chiefs (or ‘Chefs’ as I noticed on a fan’s sign over the weekend) or Highlanders would host the final, but over the last two rounds I’ve now subsituted the Crusaders for the Highlanders.
Funnily enough though, in the NZ conference, I think a lot depends on the Blues, who could really become a major pain over the next couple of months. They’re too good, and too proud a team to run last, and I’m quite certain they will take points off the top teams in the last stages of the comp.
And interesting that you’ve got such a gap between 1 and 2 in Australia. Obviously, I hope you’re right, but again, I think the last round of local derbies are going to be very hard to pick..
May 2nd 2012 @ 10:55am
LeftArmSpinner said | May 2nd 2012 @ 10:55am | Report comment
Brett,
the blues could be the fly but I think that they are just having a massively bad hair day/season. their defence against the reds was appalling and their attack is nothing like previous years.
I think the Highlanders will cause more havoc.
the gap tween 1 and in aust is due to the three games brumbies V tahs (2) and Reds. 12 points up for grabs and that they already have a gap to the tahs and reds respectively of 31 to 26 to 25.
May 2nd 2012 @ 12:52pm
Team Taniwha said | May 2nd 2012 @ 12:52pm | Report comment
I keep thinking the Blues surely can’t keep losing, but they have much to my tipping misfortune. It is the same things that cost them, poor at kick of receipts, weakness in the inside channel when first receivers flip passes back on the inside, poor line out. If you compare the start of their game against the Sharks to the start of the reds, what progress have they made in the space of 3 weeks – nothing.
Without Melamu and Woodcock, they alck leadesrhip up front and they don’t seem to be getting much from Lam. His choice of Braid as captain has not worked (way out of his depth) and some of his subsitutions seem odd (why Nonu was pulled so early the other night I do not know). So think Leftie is on the money in summasation!
May 2nd 2012 @ 9:53am
Chris said | May 2nd 2012 @ 9:53am | Report comment
Crusaders or Stormers will win for mine.
Cheifs are a good footy team but won’t be able to get past the Crusaders in the semis, the only reason the Crusaders are behind them right now is they have only just begun using Carter and McCaw. That means the final will be at Newlands and travelling to Africa and playing in front of 50,000 hostile fans is a big ask, even for the Crusaders.
That said, if the Brumbies can somehow spring an upset in the Semi final and beat the Stormers, while the Crusaders beat the Cheifs then in will be a Brumbies v. Crusaders final in Canberra – anything could happen.
Go you mighty Brumbies!
May 2nd 2012 @ 10:57am
LeftArmSpinner said | May 2nd 2012 @ 10:57am | Report comment
Chris, the chiefs will have beaten them in rd 17 and jsut have to do it again………..
chris, as much as I hope you are right, the brumbies getting over the stormers in SA and then coming back to Canberra, will leave them exhausted for the final.
May 2nd 2012 @ 9:53am
nickoldschool said | May 2nd 2012 @ 9:53am | Report comment
I still have doubts about the Highlanders; they have won 6 out of 7 by 4pts or less and to be honest, they should/could well have lost a few of them (i.e. last w-e v Cheetahs, -21 in the 2nd half). Yet, its no pure luck and they do have some quality. They have lost Haskell for the next few rounds and dont as have much depth as other contenders so i still dont see them making the top 6 (but have been saying that since round 1 and have been wrong, so!!). Other than that great analysis, always good to speculate:)
May 2nd 2012 @ 9:58am
RebelRanger said | May 2nd 2012 @ 9:58am | Report comment
Champion teams find ways to win. A team that is able to find new ways to win are better prepared for finals rugby than a team that smash everyone along the way..
May 2nd 2012 @ 10:02am
Chris said | May 2nd 2012 @ 10:02am | Report comment
Highlanders are a good news story, Everyone is going for them but its like backing one of the pacific nations at the world cup, they might beat a few better teams during the tournament but are not a risk of actually winning the thing.
Like the Stormers they struggle to score tries (except against the Rebels), but the Stormers can back it up with a defence that wouldn’t concede many points at test level.
Look at their last five rounds, got past three of the most usless teams in the comp (Cheetahs, Blues and Rebels) but weren’t even in the game against the Brumbies and Stormers.
That said I hope they go well, I just can’t see it happening.
May 2nd 2012 @ 10:15am
nickoldschool said | May 2nd 2012 @ 10:15am | Report comment
Highlanders are playing to the best of their abilities..and even above imo. Everything is going their way this season. They are just too often right on the edge to go all the way surely! But you’re right, it’s still a good resfreshing story.
They’re making the most out of their new stadium too. good on them
May 2nd 2012 @ 10:18am
mania said | May 2nd 2012 @ 10:18am | Report comment
cracks me up how so many people are already writing off the highlanders. hope they read all this for some more motivation.
May 2nd 2012 @ 11:28am
Jarmen said | May 2nd 2012 @ 11:28am | Report comment
Well there is no point commenting about writing off the Aussies mania its basically a forgone conclusion …..lol
May 2nd 2012 @ 10:59am
LeftArmSpinner said | May 2nd 2012 @ 10:59am | Report comment
and i have predicted that the highlanders will beat the sharks this weekend. no mean feat given the scare the cheetahs gave the hlanders last weekend.
May 2nd 2012 @ 11:05am
mania said | May 2nd 2012 @ 11:05am | Report comment
more importantly with that cheetahs – highlanders game is how they never gave up. that to me is the biggest indicator that they’ve got the gas to go all the way. its a shame it may be at the expense of the saders.
as tiger woods said “its not how well you drive its how well you recover”
May 2nd 2012 @ 11:19am
nickoldschool said | May 2nd 2012 @ 11:19am | Report comment
Highlanders bench won this game (and lost it for the Cheetahs). Cowan and Noakes scored 27 pts while they were on the pitch in the 2nd half. That plus Ebersohn’s absymal day.
They sure are a quality side and no one here is writing them off, just having ‘doubts’ and thinking Crusaders, Stormers and Chiefs look more like future champs.
May 2nd 2012 @ 11:24am
mania said | May 2nd 2012 @ 11:24am | Report comment
yeah saders are a great side but one slip up and their chances of qualifying get that much harder. they may have left it too late. saders have 4 more conf games and they could lose any of these games (yes even blues)
the ability of the highlanders to strangle a team into submission is awesome to behold
May 2nd 2012 @ 2:14pm
Suzy Poison said | May 2nd 2012 @ 2:14pm | Report comment
LAS, a good possible finals scenario, and one is that is the highest probability. However apart from the Chiefs-Crusaders game, this a few other subplots and twists still to come.. For instance, if the Sharks beat the Highlanders this weekend, it all changes. I would say the Sharks are going in as bookies favourites. Worth noting, that the Sharks, have the Beast and Kankowski back from injury. But let’s evaluate after this weekend.
Secondly, not one poster has mentioned the team, that I believe has flown under the radar.
The Bulls.
I am a Stormers fan, but I believe the Bulls have a better finals record, and have the BMT pedigree to go all the way. I am predicting that the Bulls will beat the Highlanders at home. Potentially if, if they do, then the Bulls will top the Saffa conference, even if they lose to the Chiefs. Worth noting that the Bulls have had no trouble scoring 4 try bonus points.
Then it could be a Chiefs Versus Bulls final. I would still tip the Chiefs to win, as they have been the form team. But that is also another scenario worth considering.
May 2nd 2012 @ 11:11pm
LeftArmSpinner said | May 2nd 2012 @ 11:11pm | Report comment
Suzy, I completely agree about the subplots. The great part is that there are many twists in every game, because there are still 8 rounds to go and there are plenty of great contests to come from teams with quite similar abilities on their day. The bulls do look good but they re similar to the crusaders in that they might hvr left their run too late but they can score bonus points that the stormers can’t.
With the chiefs it is important that you compete with them across the field and particularly in the try scoring stakes. Stormers struggle Burt can tackle. Bulls can as can the crusaders.
May 3rd 2012 @ 10:20am
Suzy Poison said | May 3rd 2012 @ 10:20am | Report comment
True, the Bulls still have to tour. However they are the same points as the Stormers, and third overall, not counting the conference system, so the table is deceptive like that. It’s not unrealistic to see the Bulls get a bonus point victory against the Rebels. In which case they will top the Saffa confrence at the end of next weekend. The Stormers can only get 4 points for the bye.
Also the mettle of the Highlanders will be tested this weekend. If the Sharks win, it allows them in with a sniff of making the top six, a Highlanders victory will shut the gate.
May 2nd 2012 @ 3:42pm
nickoldschool said | May 2nd 2012 @ 3:42pm | Report comment
Just read that Beast Mtawarira, Ryan Kankowski, Odwa Ndungane and Marius Joubert are back into the squad for this game.Tough assignment for the Highlanders but who knows.
May 2nd 2012 @ 7:21pm
kiwi said | May 2nd 2012 @ 7:21pm | Report comment
Gold!!!
May 2nd 2012 @ 9:53am
Chris said | May 2nd 2012 @ 9:53am | Report comment
Really dawns on me how important winning your conference is. Very hard (but not impossible) otherwise.
May 2nd 2012 @ 11:00am
LeftArmSpinner said | May 2nd 2012 @ 11:00am | Report comment
Chris, yes you are correct but more so, you have to finish first overall to have any chance of winning it.
May 2nd 2012 @ 2:00pm
Chris said | May 2nd 2012 @ 2:00pm | Report comment
Crusaders lost last years final by less than a converted try. Hard to say they had “no chance” of winning it.
May 2nd 2012 @ 10:34am
Harry said | May 2nd 2012 @ 10:34am | Report comment
CHiefs have to play the Reds in Brisbane LAS. Have you factored them in to win that?
I’m going for a Stormers Chiefs final at Newlands, with the Stormers winning.
No Australian team realistically threatening. The Tahs are gone after failing at home last weekend, the Brums emerging but not good enough, and this year is not the Reds year. That said, I reckon the Reds can produce at least one win in their home games against the Chiefs and Highlanders. Hoping they give it a red hot go against the Saders this weekend but with the Saders hitting top form and Bryce reffing the head is not optimistic.