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Will there be a Black Caviar vs Frankel showdown?

Black Caviar wins 2011 T J Smith - Slattery Media Group
Expert
2nd May, 2012
69
6215 Reads

Mark this in your diary – August 2nd, 12:30am AEST. It’s the start time for the biggest sporting event this year: Frankel versus Black Caviar.

A clash between the undefeated world number one Frankel and Australia’s unbeaten wonder mare Black Caviar is yet to be confirmed but it’s becoming blatantly obvious that if the match race is to ever occur it will be in the 2012 Sussex Stakes.

The Sussex Stakes is run over 1609 metres on a one-turn track at Goodwood Racecourse in West Sussex, England. It is the showpiece event of the annual Glorious Goodwood Carnival.

Frankel won the 2011 Sussex and is scheduled to defend his crown at this year’s meeting.

Black Caviar’s trainer Peter Moody has declared that if his mare – who has competed at a maximum distance of 1400 metres – was to race at a mile while in England it would only be in the Sussex.

And to help seal the deal, owner of Dunaden – the winner of last year’s Melbourne Cup – Sheik Fahad Al Thani, has guaranteed a one million pound prize packet for the race.

But who would prevail? Would Frankel affirm his world number one rating with victory or would Black Caviar reign supreme and be welcomed into immortality by Phar Lap, Makybe Diva and company as a legend of Australian racing?

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The contrast of styles between five-year old mare Black Caviar and four-year old colt Frankel is alarming.

Frankel (trained by Sir Henry Cecil and ridden by Tom Queally) is a bold front runner that likes to be in control. Frankel (a winner from 1408 to 1609 metres) takes his opponents out of their comfort zone by sprinting off an ever-increasing tempo. He has the aerobic capacity and acceleration to soul-destroy his opponents.

Black Caviar (trained by Peter Moody and ridden by Luke Nolen) has an engine like no horse to have ever graced the turf. She goes through the gears like a Formula 1 car. Black Caviar has a higher cruising speed than any opponent she has met. With doubt, Black Caviar (having reached a top speed of 72 kilometres per hour) is the fastest professional athlete in the world.

But at a distance of a mile, it will be Black Caviar’s ability to stay, not her speed that will decide the result of this race.

Because, as far as I’m concerned, if Black Caviar does not run out a strong 1609 metres, not only will she suffer defeat but she will get destroyed by Frankel.

Frankel’s victory in the 2011 Sussex is arguably the most dominant win against world-class horses in any country, by any horse, in the modern era.

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Frankel met the then world-number three Canford Cliffs. It was meant to a closely-fought contest.

After enjoying a soft lead through the first 600 metres, Queally steadily increased the tempo over the final five furlongs and Frankel came clear in the straight to win by a widening margin of five lengths.

Having had an easy run behind Frankel, Canford Cliffs – a five-time Group One winner – speared to the outside of the track in the final 200 metres. Quite clearly, Canford Cliffs’ spirit was broken.

With the obvious distance query, Nolen cannot afford to race on Frankel’s tail in the Sussex. If Black Caviar is forced to chase over the final 1000 metres, she may crack at her first try over the mile.

Black Caviar, therefore, must race from the front.

The 2011 St James’ Palace Stakes during Royal Ascot was the last time Frankel was led in a race.

Cecil employed a pacemaker for Frankel and after being ridden ‘with a sit’, the undefeated colt was flat in the final furlong, hanging on to win by the relatively slender margin of three-quarters of a length.

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Black Caviar has the natural early speed to lead Frankel. She is coming from Australia where races are generally run quickly at the start and at the finish. The middle section of a race is often the slowest.

Conversely, however, the pace in a lot of European races progressively increases from a slow tempo at the beginning. That means Frankel would not be comfortable running the first 600 metres of a race in the time Black Caviar usually does.

If Black Caviar was able to get an easy lead she would be incredibly difficult to get past. So who wins?

If Frankel is allowed to control proceedings as he did in the 2011 Sussex, not only will he win but he could smash Black Caviar.

To beat Frankel, Black Caviar must lead.

And if Black Caviar got an uncontested lead, I believe she would run out a strong mile and have too much speed for Frankel in the straight.

Ideally, Black Caviar leads with Frankel applying the acid test, on her outside, from the 1200 metre-mark. Such tactics would not only leave both horses partially exposed but would give them a relatively even chance at victory. And in such a scenario, the winner (most likely Frankel) would undoubtedly prove themselves to be the best.

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Tactics will decide the result of this race. Black Caviar is a more versatile horse because she can lead or chase from behind. That versatility means Black Caviar is perfectly suited in a strategic affair. But Frankel is severely advanced by having the race run at his favourite distance.

My heart says Black Caviar wins but my head says there’s more chance of a Frankel victory.

All we need now is for the race to eventuate!

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