Can the Brumbies win Super Rugby?
Roar Guru By KiwiDave, 23 May 2012 KiwiDave is a Roar Guru
- Tagged:
- 2012 Super Rugby, ACT Brumbies, Bulls, Chiefs, Jake White, rugby, Rugby Union, Stormers, Super Rugby
The Brumbies win on Saturday night was overshadowed by a key injury to Christian Lealiifano (AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
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A month ago the Australian Conference was the laughing stock of Super Rugby. The top of the table was dominated by New Zealand and South African sides and the Australians had the Brumbies, who barely had enough points to be in the top six.
A month on, the Brumbies find themselves with one bonus point win off the top of the table after an impressive month with big victories over the Hurricanes and Waratahs.
This weekend when they play the Reds, a side which they have dominated with 16 wins from 19 encounters, they could be playing for more than the Australian Conference. They could be playing for top spot at the end of the season and home finals.
Sitting above them on the ladder are the Chiefs, Bulls and Stormers.
The Chiefs still have to play the Bulls and Crusaders at home and the Highlanders and Hurricanes away. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that the Chiefs will lose one of these fixtures. In fact, it will be one hell of a mighty effort if they notch all of them.
The Stormers still have to play the Sharks, Cheetahs and Bulls away. These sides all gave the Stormers a fright at home and it will be a tough task for them to win all of these.
The Bulls have the Sharks and Chiefs to play away and the Stormers at home. Winning all three of these will be a tough ask for them.
The Crusaders are two points adrift of them with three home games and an away game against the Chiefs to come. You can probably pencil a win for all their home games and the Chiefs encounter should be a hard fought one.
The Sharks have a few tough ones in the Bulls and Stormers at home, but wins over those two sides will possibly give them the South African Conference
So if the Brumbies can continue their dominance over the Reds, and notch away wins over the Waratahs, Rebels and Force and a home win over the Blues, they can potentially secure top spot.
Given the ease of their draw and the tough draw of the three sides above them, they are a great chance to secure top spot providing they get over the Reds this weekend.
With a potential home semi-final and final, Jake White might do the unthinkable and take a cellar dweller from last season to the top of Super Rugby, further cementing his greatness as a coach.
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- Explore:
- 2012 Super Rugby, ACT Brumbies, Bulls, Chiefs, Jake White, rugby, Rugby Union, Stormers, Super Rugby
May 23rd 2012 @ 2:05am
Johnno said | May 23rd 2012 @ 2:05am | Report comment
Yes now that they have the best coach in OZ Jake white . The man like Micky arthur south african too in cricket who took over aussie job. Jake whitee needs to be wallaby coach lets end this Deans circus and recognise it is is what is , . Jake White for wallaby coach and lions 2013 and world cup 2015.
May 23rd 2012 @ 6:55am
Moaman said | May 23rd 2012 @ 6:55am | Report comment
” lions 2013 and world cup 2015. ” Let’s not get greedy,Johnno!
May 23rd 2012 @ 1:06pm
KiwiDave said | May 23rd 2012 @ 1:06pm | Report comment
I do not why you guys hate Deans so much. I think he has done great things for the Wallabies considering what he came in with. He had very little to work with an he has managed to get your team to a point where they have dominated everyone except the All Blacks. You guys didn’t know how to win in South Africa until he came along. Think it is something like 7 of the last 8 games against the Boks the Wallabies have come out on top. In 100 years you have never had that dominance over them.
Come 2015 he will likely have the team to beat in the World Cup. The talent in the Wallaby backline scares me as an All Black supporter. Genia, Beale, O’Connor, Iaone and an inform Mitchell are lethal. Cooper as well on his day but I see him more of a liability with his lack of defense and poor decision making under pressure. You get your forwards right then Australia will be a massive force to deal with.
May 23rd 2012 @ 7:55am
Shungmao said | May 23rd 2012 @ 7:55am | Report comment
Even if the brumbles get top spot and they are a big chance to do so with their run of games home, I don’t think they can or will win it. I’m not convinced that the current group minus a quality 10 can beat a crusaders or Stormers outfit. The reds need to sneek into the top six, they would find it hard to win it from there but will cause some damage, they are a team when on song can win on foreign soil. The Brumbles need to show they can beat the reds comfortably this weekend, if they do this well who knows what can happen…..
May 23rd 2012 @ 9:13am
Ilikedahoodoogurusingha said | May 23rd 2012 @ 9:13am | Report comment
I disagree that they cannot win it, but probably won’t this year due to youth, and inexperience in the squad. They have already shown that they can go close to the big guns; they only just lost to the Chiefs and Bulls away. However I don’t think they have the consistency yet, and of course losing experience like To’omua and Lealiifano may be a deciding factor in finals footy. As a Brumbies supporter, I would love to be proved wrong, but a title challenge is much more likely in the next 2 years I think.
May 23rd 2012 @ 1:09pm
pjbreck said | May 23rd 2012 @ 1:09pm | Report comment
Yeah i agree, i think they will go close this year, but will need the experience of finals football before they can win the title.
May 23rd 2012 @ 9:07am
chuck said | May 23rd 2012 @ 9:07am | Report comment
can they cause they can with the test series could be differ cal selection for them who is picked in the national team we will see after they play the reds who will be the real deal Jake White has done well & Fisher the other co coach has too be pleased where they are
at as well.
May 23rd 2012 @ 9:08am
Peabody said | May 23rd 2012 @ 9:08am | Report comment
Reds fans have forgotten Loftus. A full-strength Reds packed was humiliated by the Bulls and it should have been a 90 point margin such was the dominance of the Bulls.
May 23rd 2012 @ 9:33am
johnno42 said | May 23rd 2012 @ 9:33am | Report comment
can they win? If they maintain top of the conference then they are guaranteed a spot in the finals where it becomes knock-out rugby so their chances are as good as any, numerically.
realistically, a snowflake in hell has a better chance of survival.
May 23rd 2012 @ 10:04am
Bigbaz said | May 23rd 2012 @ 10:04am | Report comment
So White is the new ” should be Wallabies coach “,last year it was Link,can’t remember wno it was the year before and next year it will be whoever is coaching the Aussie conference leader.
May 23rd 2012 @ 10:04am
Brett McKay said | May 23rd 2012 @ 10:04am | Report comment
K-Dave, it will be interesting to see what impact the June Tests have on the Brumbies, perhaps more so than other teams in the top six or eight. While those other teams are stacked with internationals, and would have factored in some degree of impact, the Brumbies might not have been thinking much beyond the three Wallabies they had. That they now have upwards of half a dozen more potential Wallabies in their squad is a credit to their performances as a team and as individuals.
At the start of the year, I thought anything around mid-table would be a successful year. Never in my wildest dreams did I see a finals appearance, never mind topping the Australian conference. Fair to say it’s a great time to be a Brumbies supporter..
May 23rd 2012 @ 10:40am
Shungmao said | May 23rd 2012 @ 10:40am | Report comment
Brett, even as reds supporter there is something about the brumbles I just like and have always liked, whether it was the little brother punching the big brother NSW in the nose mentality I am not sure, they have had a great season so far. My concern is if they get a few injuries through the June tests or the rest of the super season they are in trouble big time. In my view they don’t have the bench cover , here’s hoping it doesnt come to that.
May 23rd 2012 @ 11:08am
apelu said | May 23rd 2012 @ 11:08am | Report comment
The most important thing in sport, and anything else for that matter, is that white stuff between the ears. Those who believe they can, can. Those who believe they cannot, cannot. I think this is where Jake has focused his energy. He has made every member of his squad believe they can. They are on their third flyhalf, and Holmes played last week as if he had been playing since February. Because of their youth, they have no fear. Also, i believe they can handle ijuries with their no-name and inexperienced squad, because they have strong leadership from Mowen and the senior players. Can they? I believe they can! It’s all in the mind!
May 23rd 2012 @ 12:30pm
Shungmao said | May 23rd 2012 @ 12:30pm | Report comment
Apelu, applaud you calling out the psychology of the white stuff betwen the ears and agree the importance of it but the cattle are the cattle and I’m not sure they have the cattle to put the ball over the other white stuff called the try line enough times to win the big one. I can assure you if they get there you will hear me supporting them from Singapore!
May 23rd 2012 @ 1:19pm
mudskipper said | May 23rd 2012 @ 1:19pm | Report comment
The BRUMBIES are contenders. should it last week in Wellington and should it against teh Bulls 2in teh Republic… If tehy beat the Reds Saturday night they’re a chance… Look at teh Reds last year and they won it, who would have thought that round 1 2011…
May 23rd 2012 @ 1:58pm
justsaying said | May 23rd 2012 @ 1:58pm | Report comment
People seem to be making a lot of the win in Wellington. It should be remembered that the Hurricanes are only a middling team and have recently been thrashed by the Crusaders and the Chiefs. Moreover, the Hurricanes were on top for a large portion of that game and the Brumbies can probably be thankful that the Hurricanes forgot to play a goalkicker. The Brumbies never looked like beating the Bulls in Pretoria and only got close through a couple of late tries. The Brumbies are yet to beat any of the other current top 6 teams and don’t play the Stormers or Crusaders in the regular season. The best they have done is a scrappy win over the Highlanders at home. Overall they’ve done nothing to suggest to me that they can last past the first week of finals. But I guess you never know – if they can beat what is pretty much a full strength Reds team this weekend I might have to change my tune…
May 23rd 2012 @ 3:18pm
KiwiDave said | May 23rd 2012 @ 3:18pm | Report comment
True what you say but the advantage of having the home ground can never be under-estimated. Would the Bulls or Chiefs have beaten them at Bruce Stadium? The trip to Bruce Stadium used to be ranked one of the hardest and they are building that strength again this year on their home ground. Last two games there they completely dominated the Rebels and Waratahs and they have won 9 of 10 against the Reds at home.
May 24th 2012 @ 9:33am
justsaying said | May 24th 2012 @ 9:33am | Report comment
It’s hard to say how much home ground would assist. The Brumbies’ home opponents this year have been the Force, Cheetahs, Sharks, Rebels and Waratahs. Hardly top flight opposition, and the Brumbies still lost to the Sharks and had to battle to get past the Cheetahs and Highlanders (despite the Highlanders playing one of their worst games of the season). Again, the game this weekend could well answer a lot of questions in that regard, but I haven’t seen anything yet that would put Bruce Stadium in the ‘fortress’ category.
May 23rd 2012 @ 3:21pm
PeterK said | May 23rd 2012 @ 3:21pm | Report comment
The BEST team the brumbies have beaten is the Highlanders. They have NOT beaten any teams in the top 6.
They have lost to Bulls, Sharks, and Chiefs.
They are 50/50 of winning their first semi at home. Zero chance of then winning the away semi, and then another away final.
May 23rd 2012 @ 3:38pm
Justin2 said | May 23rd 2012 @ 3:38pm | Report comment
Cant argue with those stats PK. If sport were done on this basis though the games would be played on paper.
I could argue reasonably that they lost to the Chiefs and Bulls away by not very much (as they did) and that if they were at home that result could have been turned around. Not saying it would but could.
They will be outsiders on the road in a semi but it will be no sure thing they lose if they get that far.
May 23rd 2012 @ 3:48pm
PeterK said | May 23rd 2012 @ 3:48pm | Report comment
Also the brumbies are a signifcantly weaker team without CL.
May 23rd 2012 @ 3:56pm
Justin2 said | May 23rd 2012 @ 3:56pm | Report comment
I think they will be weaker, by how much is too early to tell.
May 23rd 2012 @ 4:06pm
KiwiDave said | May 23rd 2012 @ 4:06pm | Report comment
Hey Peter, they dont have to play any side in the top six until the finals.
May 23rd 2012 @ 9:27pm
ilikedahoodoogurusingha said | May 23rd 2012 @ 9:27pm | Report comment
Sorry Pete you are wrong….they lost to The Chiefs by 7 and the Bulls by 2 both away, so you cannot say that they have zero chance of winning away from home……I think that is your bias showing…….how are the ‘Tahs doing by the way?
May 24th 2012 @ 12:51pm
justsaying said | May 24th 2012 @ 12:51pm | Report comment
Did you just use 2 examples of the Brumbies losing away from home to challenge an argument that the Brumbies are likely to lose away from home?
I seriously can’t believe that the Bulls result is continually rolled out to support arguments that the Brumbies can foot it with the top Super Rugby teams. The game was won at 33-13 after 60 mins, and the Brumbies got a couple of consolation tries to make the scoreline respectable. Against the Chiefs they never led once in the whole game – they almost snatched a draw with a try 3 minutes from time but still managed to blow it.
There’s no doubt the Brumbies are at the right end of the table at the right time of the season, but I’ve still seen nothing yet that indicates to me that they’ll be contenders in the finals.