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The Bulldogs and the Cats sit outside the top 8 with four wins and four losses a piece. Join us at 7:50pm AEST for live commentary and score updates as each work to stay within touching distance of a finals berth.
It is unlikely that at the start of the season anyone would have predicted that these two teams would be equal on points after eight rounds, with Geelong in particular sitting outside the top 8.
The unwillingness of pundits to write off Geelong, including this pundit, means that Geelong will go into this game as favourites, but the Bulldogs have shown enough in the last few weeks to suggest that they are capable of an upset here.
It may surprise some to learn that the Bulldogs are second in the league for contested possessions, with midfielders Matty Boyd and Ryan Griffen in excellent form, backed up by sons of guns: Tom Liberatore and Mitch Wallis.
Geelong has plenty of quality in the midfield as well, and the signs were good last week in a tight game against Collingwood that Joel Selwood, Jimmy Bartel and Joel Corey are primed to get Geelong’s clearance stats back on an upward trend.
The real problem for much of the season for the Bulldogs has been that they have a low efficiency rate in converting inside 50s to goals, one of the lowest in the league.
The fact that they have had to rely on Daniel Giansircacusa as the leading forward for much of the season tells a story, although it has to be said that he has done reasonably well in that role.
With the underperforming Jarrad Grant and Liam Jones dropped this week, Bulldogs coach, Brendan McCartney, continues to work towards building a forward line with some tall options.
Jordan Roughead has been rushed back in as the second ruckman come key forward, a role that Ayce Cordy can also play, and they are both in the team.
Add Tory Dickson starting on the bench, and the quicker small options of Shaun Higgins and Luke Dahlhaus, and we get a forward line that might be able to capitalise on the extra ball the Bulldogs are capable of winning.
Geelong too has an important ‘in’ this week, with Matthew Scarlett a welcome addition to a Cats backline that has shown some frailty this season, for the first time in many years.
On paper, the Geelong backline looks good enough to cope with a Bulldogs forward line which, while improving, remains experimental and aimed more at future development.
Nothing experimental about the Geelong forward line, with the Tomahawk (Tom Hawkins), and the J-Pod (James Podsiadly) in the top seven goalkickers in the league.
Bulldogs full back, Brian Lake, has returned to his peak performances of two or three seasons ago, and he will get the job in the last line of defence, while the second tall marking option will be guarded by the inexperienced Mark Austin.
While I can see the Bulldogs getting an advantage in the ruck through Will Minson and Jordan Roughead, and perhaps winning the clearances, I think Geelong is better placed in its forward line than the Bulldogs are, who are up against a very experienced defensive unit.
On top of that, it’s hard to imagine Geelong being as profligate as they were in the second half last week against Collingwood.
The Bulldogs will stay with Geelong until the last quarter, but a shorter break following a trip to energy-sapping Darwin means Geelong will hold out for a 12 point win.
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