Hot and cold Waratahs loom as the danger team
Columnist By David Lord, 27 May 2012 David Lord is a Roar Expert
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- Brumbies, Rebels, Rugby Union, Super Rugby, Western Force
Will the Waratahs be a bogey team? (AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
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Michael Foley’s hot and cold Waratahs hold the key to the Super Rugby play-off aspirations of the Brumbies and the Reds.
With four rounds to be decided, the Brumbies are on 45 points and the Reds 40 after last night’s 13-12 win over their arch rivls, dodging a bullet when Brumbies fly-half Zack Holmes missed a penalty shot in the shadow of full-time, his only miss of the night.
In the run home, the Brumbies have the Rebels away, Force away, Waratahs away, and the Blues at home.
The Reds have a bye, an automatic four points, Rebels away, Highlanders home, and the Waratahs at home.
On that draw, the Brumbies have the inside running, even though three of their four games are away. They shouldn’t have any trouble with the Rebels, Force, or Blues. The Waratahs are the danger.
But the defending champion Reds have two danger teams in three – the Highlanders and Waratahs. The big bonus will be both are at Suncorp with the massive support of the red army in excess of 30,000.
It all depends on what Waratah squad turns up to play, that’s the lottery.
Last night at Bloemfontein against the Cheetahs, the Waratahs were hot in the first half dotting down four tries, two of them superbly constructed, to lead 31-21 at the break and in control.
In the second half the Waratahs were cold, bordering on pathetic with a lone penalty goal, while the Cheetahs waltzed away with a 35-34 victory.
Berrick Barnes had the chance to pinch a win with four minutes left on the clock, but his long-range penalty fell short. And in the last minute the Waratahs ignored a possible Barnes drop goal attempt from right in front by constant pick-and-go going nowhere. Dumb rugby.
Despite their hot and cold form there will still be a fair smattering of Waratahs named in the Wallaby squad today for the one-off Test against Scotland, and three against Wales with question marks over the fitness of Wallaby skipper James Horwill (knee), and Kurtley Beale’s shoulder. Both were serious enough to leave the field yesterday.
It would be a salute to Wallaby coach Robbie Deans if he names Zack Holmes, who outplayed Quade Cooper in Canberra last night, in only his second run-on appearance for the Brumbies.
The same could be said for the selection of four more Brumbies in winger Joe Tomane, full-back Jesse Mogg, with Sam Carter and his lock partner Scott Fardy, who can also play on the side of the scrum.
Welcome new blood with talent.
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May 27th 2012 @ 4:13am
Johnno said | May 27th 2012 @ 4:13am | Report comment
Tahs will be lucky to get 1 player in the wallaby squads to be honest for 1st test vs Wales when you really look through the team.
Maybe Palu or dave dennis or kane douglas or ben robinson but all just maybes .
Not TPN he has been out of all sorts and took some big hits to the head in last nights match maybe concussed again. TPN needs to change his tackling style like barrack barnes had to, otherwise he will get a serious injury soon. And all that recent stuff about head knocks too in the media.
May 27th 2012 @ 7:02am
AndyS said | May 27th 2012 @ 7:02am | Report comment
The Wallabies will look just like normal. They’ve already contracted the usual players based on past performances and there are too many vested interests/loss of face for them not to be picked.
May 27th 2012 @ 9:44am
Who ate all the pies said | May 27th 2012 @ 9:44am | Report comment
It’s comical watching TPN continue to tackle with his head Johnno.
He’s becoming a liability and as you have alluded to the Medical staff would have to be concerned for his welfare.
Palu and Dennis will make it tho…
May 27th 2012 @ 3:27pm
jeznez said | May 27th 2012 @ 3:27pm | Report comment
Based on that match it would have to be Palu over Dennis. PeterK put forward some stats to show Palu’s work rate has been higher than many people are giving him credit for. I never trust the Rugbyheaven stats so made my own while watching the replay this morning. Compared Dennis and Palu and Palu had a much higher involvement in the game.
Runs – Palu made 13 to Dennis 4
Rucks/Mauls – Palu hit 16 to Dennis 14
Tackles – Palu made 4 to Dennis 5
Lineouts – Palu 1 to Dennis 3
It is all fairly close except for the number of runs. I’m coming around to a Higginbotham, Pocock and Palu backrow.
May 27th 2012 @ 4:24am
bluerose said | May 27th 2012 @ 4:24am | Report comment
maybe the Waratahs props, Douglass and Dennis
May 27th 2012 @ 5:24am
Who Needs Melon said | May 27th 2012 @ 5:24am | Report comment
A dire, awful weekend of and for Australian rugby. The Scots and Welsh must be licking their lips.
May 27th 2012 @ 9:36am
Who ate all the pies said | May 27th 2012 @ 9:36am | Report comment
WNM
This weekend’s results make Jon’s assertions about the strength of the Australian conference hopeful at best.
Some Roarers continue to underestimate the trial that the June internationals are going to be with the injury toll growing.
The last thing Deans needed was to see Horwill and Beale, in particular, leaving the field in their respective fixtures.
May 27th 2012 @ 6:00am
Shacka said | May 27th 2012 @ 6:00am | Report comment
Weird. Barnes’ best attribute is his drop kick. In the same position the Saders would have passed the ball back to DC for a droppy to win the match. And the Bulls would have done the same with Morne in the pocket. What were the Tahs trying for, five points when all they needed was three? Loony tunes.
May 27th 2012 @ 7:00am
kingplaymaker said | May 27th 2012 @ 7:00am | Report comment
Is this the promised end for the Waratahs board or at the very least Foley?
WNM I wouldn’t overrate Scotland and Wales. Scotland have one back who can play rugby while Wales haven’t done much since the 70s-respect them yes, overrate them no.
S.Timani did well as did Cooper Vuna. Two tries each and I think they should both appear on monday in the Wallabies squad.
If Horwill is out, I would expect S.Timani to start against Wales. Vuna I would expect against Scotland, with Tomane against Wales in place of JOC.
May 27th 2012 @ 9:08am
David Lord said | May 27th 2012 @ 9:08am | Report comment
Good call KPM. The Six-Nations is far inferior to the Tri-Nations, and will be even more so once the Rugby Championship kicks off. The benchmark will be Argentina. They will be a far tougher proposition than Italy as the junior members making the Rugby Championship the senior tournament in world rugby, outside of the World Cup.
May 27th 2012 @ 10:06am
kingplaymaker said | May 27th 2012 @ 10:06am | Report comment
David agreed, it’s annoying having to be so politically correct about the quality of northern hemisphere teams all the time. England and France are the only two teams with the playing stocks to beat the Top 3, but they were abysmally coached under Johnson and Lievremont, and appear to be being badly coached by Lancaster and St.Andre, while Wales, Ireland, and even more Scotland and Italy do not have the players to beat the Top 3 except when they don’t bother to put in any performance. On Scotland’s very best day ever they can beat Australia on its very worst day, but that is rare.
May 29th 2012 @ 9:59pm
Ben S said | May 29th 2012 @ 9:59pm | Report comment
That’s spurious logic, David. The 4N (refuse to call it Championship) will be improved by Argentina? I doubt it. Further, let’s not forget that the Argentine players are basically developed in Europe, playing European rugby, which they will be bringing to the SH. What you’re saying is contradictory. You’d also wonder, if the 6N is so inferior, why Australia have struggled so badly against European sides under Deans.
May 27th 2012 @ 9:21am
Bakkies said | May 27th 2012 @ 9:21am | Report comment
DL ignorant as always. The Wallabies have lost their most recent matches against England, Ireland and Scotland and we went in with this arrogance against Samoa (who beat us with a NH style game plan) last year.
Scotland have more than one back who can play Rugby. Evans, Hogg, Ansbro, Lee Jones and Mike Blair are good players. The 10 and 12 axis kills them. Laidlaw is raw and improving. Picking a powder puff lock in Timani against Grey and Kellock will be a disaster.
May 27th 2012 @ 9:33am
David Lord said | May 27th 2012 @ 9:33am | Report comment
Bakkies, wait until the Wallabies put Scotland and Wales away, not forgetting the Welsh are the current Grand Slam champions. That will effectively silence your ignorant claim.
May 27th 2012 @ 9:48am
Bakkies said | May 27th 2012 @ 9:48am | Report comment
wow I know they are Grand Slam champions but I am afraid that’s the extent of your knowledge of the Welsh team. You are the one who stated that the Six Nations is far inferior. Aus and SA have a pretty average recent record against Six Nations teams. It will be a pretty average Wallabies side to face Scotland and they won’t be putting them away with ease
May 27th 2012 @ 10:01am
David Lord said | May 27th 2012 @ 10:01am | Report comment
We’ll see. I obviously have much more faith in the Wallabies than you do Bakkies.
May 27th 2012 @ 10:11am
Bakkies said | May 27th 2012 @ 10:11am | Report comment
The Wallabies are running out of inside backs. O’Connor out, Cooper still under done, Beale crocked, Leiliifano out for the season (same goes for Toomua), Harris is more of a centre than a flyhalf. Jury out on Lucas’ fitness and Holmes has only had two starts at 10. No obvious midfield combination yet either. Some forwards will have to back up and the Brumbies, Rebels and Tahs have matches a few days before the Scotland game and it’s likely they will have to back up. Unchartered territory for Deans and the Wallabies. I can’t remember us preparing for a test match just after two training sessions.
The Wallabies lost to Scotland due to Giteau’s missed kicks and there were botched tries. Stop making the typical end of season excuse that the Saffies trot out after losing tests they should win.
May 27th 2012 @ 10:03am
kingplaymaker said | May 27th 2012 @ 10:03am | Report comment
Bakkies slow down: Australia only lost to Scotland because they were at the trough of their confidence after a whole year of losing, and to England because they expected nothing at all and were suprised when they got something, not because they were really trying and taking it seriously. Hogg is the only Scottish player capable of an attacking act on the field, you will soon see. Ireland was a case of underestimation too.
If the Wallabies bother to play a decent game they can destroy all these teams.
I’d also like to see you call Timani a powder puff lock in person.
May 27th 2012 @ 10:24am
nickoldschool said | May 27th 2012 @ 10:24am | Report comment
NH nations will arrive very tired in the south after their 10month-long season which was even longer this year as they didn’t have a break following their 2011 domestic comp (straight to rwc prep).
NZ, SA and Oz players had a nice break after the RWC and will have 12-15 games under their belt since Nov 11, just perfect. they are(or should be) peaking now while the northern lads just need a rest.
Anything else than a clean sweep by SH nations at home would mean the north isnt far at all (as we have seen during last year’s RWC where the 3 teams that played sh nations, i.e. wales, ireland and france did more than ok.). As long as northern federations give priority to their domestic comps and HC, their national squads will always struggle against fresher SH nations.
May 27th 2012 @ 10:55am
Bakkies said | May 27th 2012 @ 10:55am | Report comment
Most of the Welsh lads bar the Ospreys have had an extensive break. The other teams finished a few weeks ago. Whereas the Wallabies are picking up injuries in the now attritional Super Rugby. Beale and Horwill picked up injuries over the weekend. There is another week of Super Rugby next weekend. Wales will probably be the better prepared team as they would be together longer than the Wallabies. Deans will barely have a week with players in and out of camp due to Super Rugby and 2 tests in one week.
May 27th 2012 @ 11:09am
nickoldschool said | May 27th 2012 @ 11:09am | Report comment
you’re right regarding Welsh and Scots (and Irish) Bakkies.
When i talk about the north I often only have France and England in mind. The harlequins and Leicester finished last night while most French internationals still have 2 weeks to go. The Celtic nations plus Italy now have a very similar competition than the SH nations so they should be ok. Injuries hit everyone and Deans have spent a lot of time with the wallabies in the last few years (July to November) so 2 weeks before test 1 shouldnt be a problem forthe ‘n2 side in the world’ at home.
May 27th 2012 @ 6:40pm
Bakkies said | May 27th 2012 @ 6:40pm | Report comment
France are only going to Argentina. They often lose there but they aren’t subjecting themselves to a tough schedule like England are.
England’s AP Finals are basic compared to France but they will have the same build up as SA will. They are playing two tour matches at least in SA to go with the tests. The Boks have been having training camps based on allocations from Super Rugby sides and a new coach. Meyer has been trying to get semi retired/fully retired players back just for this serious. The Boks probably will have more firepower out wide over a limited England side. England bar the France game were ordinary in the 6 Nations. Lucky to beat Scotland and Italy, only got over the Irish when their scrum folded. Before that it was fairly even.
May 29th 2012 @ 10:01pm
Ben S said | May 29th 2012 @ 10:01pm | Report comment
‘and to England because they expected nothing at all and were suprised when they got something, not because they were really trying and taking it seriously.’
Do you seriously believe this stuff? You can’t really. This is the same England side that beat Australia at home the last time they met.
To suggest that professional players don’t take games seriously shows you’re totally out of touch with the modern game.
May 29th 2012 @ 8:58pm
Galaxy Hop said | May 29th 2012 @ 8:58pm | Report comment
Aus and SA both have winning records against all Six Nations sides. Simple as that.
May 29th 2012 @ 10:08pm
Ben S said | May 29th 2012 @ 10:08pm | Report comment
But it’s not as simple as that.
May 27th 2012 @ 9:38am
Red Kev said | May 27th 2012 @ 9:38am | Report comment
Vuna was exposed brutally in defence all night long.
Timani was softer than Dean Mumm has ever been.
The good news is Simmons, Higginbotham, Douglas, Dennis and Palu all played very well.
May 27th 2012 @ 10:11am
kingplaymaker said | May 27th 2012 @ 10:11am | Report comment
I thought you thought Palu was terrible?
Vuna was excellent in attack but Deans will have to use all his tricks to sort out that defence, and he’s a far better coach than Damien Hill so he is more likely to be able to do it. League converts with no rugby background often have problems with defensive alignment, which is why Joe Tomane with a strong rugby background has not the same problems. Chris Ashton had very severe problems with defensive alignment for the same reason. But with good coaching he overcame them, as might Vuna hopefully, because surely you can admit he was good in attack and remember the Hurricanes are not a joke team so shredding that defence is hard.
Timani was not soft, that’s just untrue.
With Horwill out I think ALL you have named with either start or be on the bench vs Wales probably, though who where I don’t know.
May 27th 2012 @ 8:22am
AussieKiwi said | May 27th 2012 @ 8:22am | Report comment
Competition for that sixth spot is going to be even tighter given that the Sharks beat the Stormers overnight. WInning the Aus conference is going to be crucial.
May 27th 2012 @ 10:12am
Bakkies said | May 27th 2012 @ 10:12am | Report comment
Reds will get 4 points from the bye. Huge pressure for the Brumbies to win against the Rebels.
May 27th 2012 @ 11:47am
nathan said | May 27th 2012 @ 11:47am | Report comment
err not after the rebels showing last night. i think injuries and lack of class will finally catch up with the rebels, they are all over red rover for the season.
May 27th 2012 @ 6:43pm
Bakkies said | May 27th 2012 @ 6:43pm | Report comment
We don’t know what Rebels side will turn up. They are stronger at home and have knocked the Crusaders over there and were unlucky against the Bulls. We can’t take them lightly like the Crusaders did especially with the Reds guaranteed 4 points from the bye. Effectively we are two games ahead of the Reds due to their woeful for and against record but we can’t afford to drop games either. We have only won once against the Tahs in Sydney and that was a week after the Saders put 90 points on them. I am worried about that game.
May 27th 2012 @ 9:24am
Bakkies said | May 27th 2012 @ 9:24am | Report comment
The Tahs will be tough considering some players (and you could say coach) have their futures on the line.
May 27th 2012 @ 9:56am
rabbitfan said | May 27th 2012 @ 9:56am | Report comment
Lets hope the Tahs keep this consistent losing streak going so by years end they will have no alternative other than sack the whole establishment and start from ground zero
May 27th 2012 @ 10:26am
Sailosi said | May 27th 2012 @ 10:26am | Report comment
The waratahs would never look for a drop goal. They’re all about entertainment and running rugby. We want to see tries not drop goals, or so we’ve been told.
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May 27th 2012 @ 4:34pm
sittingbison said | May 27th 2012 @ 4:34pm | Report comment
Lol good one %)
May 27th 2012 @ 10:28am
Sailosi said | May 27th 2012 @ 10:28am | Report comment
If vuna and Timani make a wallabies squad then all hope is lost and I’m firmly on the KPM bandwagon.
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May 27th 2012 @ 5:42pm
Justin2 said | May 27th 2012 @ 5:42pm | Report comment
Round up the horses Sail