Reds still don’t control their own destiny
Roar Guru By LeftArmSpinner, 28 May 2012 LeftArmSpinner is a Roar Guru
- Tagged:
- ACT Brumbies, Highlanders, Queensland Reds, Rugby Union, Super Rugby
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The Queensland Reds will fall just short of the 2012 Super Rugby playoffs by my projections, despite their win over the Brumbies on the weekend.
Even with their excellent form since week 10, notching up five wins from six games, including a thumping triumph over the competition leading Chiefs, my projections are that it will not be enough to make the playoffs.
The Reds are going head to head with the Sharks for sixth place and a qualifying finals game against the Brumbies in Canberra in week one of the playoffs, with the Highlanders also seeking that remaining play-off place.
The Reds are currently in eighth place with 40 points from eight wins and four bonus points. The Sharks are currently in sixth place with 46 points from eight wins and nine bonus points. The Highlanders are in seventh place on 44 points from nine wins and four bonus points.
The Reds have a bye, the Rebels (away), Highlanders (home) and the Waratahs (home). The Sharks play the Lions (a), bye, Bulls (h), Cheetahs (h). The Highlanders play the Crusaders (a), Chiefs(h), Reds (a) and finish with a bye.
The Highlanders will be banished from the playoffs by the Crusaders in Christchurch in the coming round. If the Sharks defeat the Lions and Cheetahs with a bonus point and lose to the Bulls by seven points or less, they will finish on 61 points.
The Reds are capable of winning all of their remaining games with a four try bonus point, amassing 59 points in the process.
With the wild card place out of their control, can the Reds get an automatic playoffs place by winning the Australian conference?
The Brumbies meet the three of the four lowest ranked teams in the Rebels (a), Force (a), Waratahs (a), Blues (h).
I predict that the Brumbies will win all of these games with three bonus points (Force, Rebels and Blues), resulting in 64 competition points, a buffer of five points over the Reds. Third place on merit and a Friday evening qualifying finals game in Canberra against the recently arrived Sharks.
If it were come down to points difference, the Brumbies have 64 points difference, the Sharks 57 and the Reds -25.
As the finals draw closer, the upsets of the first eight weeks of the season disappear as the aspirants’ motivation rises and the also-rans motivation wanes.
It is disappointing that the Reds are most unlikely to make the playoffs. The Reds v Brumbies game last Saturday evening was a wonderful game of rugby between two sharp, well coached teams.
The damage to the Reds season was not done by the injury toll. Every team has had their injuries. The damage was done in the early weeks of the season when the Reds left a four try bonus point on the table against the Rebels at home (11-6), the trashing of their points differential by the 61 point blow-out against the Bulls and missing the win or at least two bonus points in the thrashing by the Force in round six (45-19).
- Explore:
- ACT Brumbies, Highlanders, Queensland Reds, Rugby Union, Super Rugby
May 28th 2012 @ 8:21am
formeropenside said | May 28th 2012 @ 8:21am | Report comment
Well yes LAS, but lets give credit to the Rebels for playing strong against the Reds.
I will argue that the Bulls and Force losses were due to injuries – namely, Cooper, Lucas, Harris and Lance, all of whom can play 5/8. When you have your 5th choice no.10, its tough. Add the Sharks loss into that, and there was where the Reds season fell apart – oh, and the rubbish Crusaders loss due to poor refereeing.
May 28th 2012 @ 8:32am
Jerry said | May 28th 2012 @ 8:32am | Report comment
Cherry picking a fair bit there – no other team has had injuries or some poor ref calls over the course of the season? For example, if the Highlanders weren’t so injury hit right now, they’d probably still be in the 6 and it’d be a much harder ask for the Reds to overhaul them.
May 28th 2012 @ 8:44am
LeftArmSpinner said | May 28th 2012 @ 8:44am | Report comment
You know the saying about ‘ifs’… aunty/uncle argument there!
May 29th 2012 @ 6:41pm
murph said | May 29th 2012 @ 6:41pm | Report comment
Other teams have had ilots of njuries but not so many in the one critical area 10/12 – Harris, Lucas, Cooper, Lane, Tapuai, A Finger. That’s what has been (probably) fatal to the Reds’s season.
May 28th 2012 @ 8:43am
LeftArmSpinner said | May 28th 2012 @ 8:43am | Report comment
FOS, Of course. The Rebels have played better this year and more importantly, defended better. Muggleton is a genius defence coach.
But, the reds are the reigning champs and have a weight f wallabies, good wallabies, at their disposal.
The force game is the one that sticks out for me. No matter how many injuries the reds had, the force could match them in that department. They are the poor relations of Aust rugby at the moment. Such a blow out was unacceptable and they have paid the ultimate price.
I am presuming that you agree with my analysis and conclusion that the Reds can’t make it, even if mathematically they still can.
May 28th 2012 @ 9:28am
formeropenside said | May 28th 2012 @ 9:28am | Report comment
Yeah, I agree with the underlying maths. I’m still hoping for a Brumbies implosion though.
None of the results this round, except for the win itself, did the Reds any favours. Between that and Disaster Deans squad selection, its a pretty grim week.
May 28th 2012 @ 8:45am
Red Kev said | May 28th 2012 @ 8:45am | Report comment
I agree that the Reds are likely to fall just short of the top six. So too will the Hurricanes probably. One of the Bulls, Sharks, Crusaders or Highlanders will miss out of the top six to the Brumbies.
The Reds will look back and regret not being able to put the Sharks away. Giving up the lead to the Sharks was the point their season was lost. It opened the door for that pasting at the hands of the Bulls which then brought them to Perth down on confidence and allowed the Force to hammer them as well.
Realistically they lost their shot to salvage the season and make the finals when they were unable to put the Crusaders away; but I said it at the time and stand by it, last years Reds would have won that match, this year they have lost the edge they had.
They have had an average season and middle of the table (8th or 9th) will be a fair representation of how it went.
May 28th 2012 @ 9:20am
LeftArmSpinner said | May 28th 2012 @ 9:20am | Report comment
I expect it will be the highlanders who miss out. The crusaders at home at finals time are a serious hurdle.
Yep, they are not the same team as last year. The edge is dulled, but probably not gone for good. But, then they go and change the coaching structure midstream to a coach who is, at best, unproven. While I thought he did well at wallabies level, particularly in the skills development area, Richard graham has done nothing special at the Force.
May 28th 2012 @ 9:29am
stillmissit said | May 28th 2012 @ 9:29am | Report comment
Very reasonable analysis of the Reds season Red Kev and one many Reds supporters are not yet willing to accept. Last year they were fast in attack and defence, this year they seem to have slowed down and the commentators on Sat mentioned how much weight they had put on.
I hope that you do not follow the Waratahs into rugby hell by making fast guys slow and working the %’s by kicking rather than sharpen your attack that worked so well for you last year.
Seems all Australian rugby cannot get the basic idea that you need hard ball winning forwards delivering quick ball, a fast service from a half back to a smart 5/8 and fast creative outside backs with great running lines and plots to win consistently.
May 28th 2012 @ 9:08am
Matt said | May 28th 2012 @ 9:08am | Report comment
For me it was the Sharks game that ruined the Reds season. Being ahead in the game and then losing all their playmakers and all their goal kickers allowed the Sharks to win that game. The Bulls blowout and the baffling Force loss are attributed to the loss to the Sharks.
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May 28th 2012 @ 9:21am
LeftArmSpinner said | May 28th 2012 @ 9:21am | Report comment
Matt, but the force are pretty poor, even on their good days and the reds were slaughtered!
May 28th 2012 @ 11:18am
sittingbison said | May 28th 2012 @ 11:18am | Report comment
maybe not so poor on their good days LAS %)
Its just they haven’t had many good days, only bad and average
May 28th 2012 @ 9:20am
Shungmao said | May 28th 2012 @ 9:20am | Report comment
Think the reds are gone, sharks beating the Stormers sealed their fate. Not just silly loses this year but lack of bonus points has been the killer and unfortunately their last 3 games including the bye will reinforce this statistic. It’s a shame because I honestly believe the reds are the only Aussie franchise that would compete well enough to get close in the finals series. Goodluck to the Brumbies and hopefully White will play a more balanced game plan, if you try to use bash and barge against crusaders, Sharks, Stormers…well good luck with that.
May 28th 2012 @ 9:20am
Sam Taulelei said | May 28th 2012 @ 9:20am | Report comment
Slight correction LAS
The Hurricanes are 8th on the ladder as they have a superior points differential over the Reds.
They have a tough road in to the playoffs though.
The Tahs this weekend away followed by the Crusaders away. They have a bye and then face the Chiefs away in their final match.
The great unknown for the teams that heavily feature players in their national squads, is how fit they remain after the June tests, any injuries will really upset the form guides and disrupt their preparations for the last three rounds before the playoffs.
I agree that the Reds are likely to miss out on the top six by one point and the Stormers are in danger of being passed by the Sharks if they lose to the Bulls at Loftus this weekend which is my fearless prediction.
May 28th 2012 @ 9:43am
LeftArmSpinner said | May 28th 2012 @ 9:43am | Report comment
Sam, apologies for the error. And very good point. The injuries are potentially a real game changer. Just ask last years ABs and their four fly halves.
I also agree that the Stormers could fall away completely if the Bulls canbeatthem. However, the Stromers are at home and the Bulls have not been that impressive while on tour despite the wins they had. They were quite average against the Tahs.
I will reserve my prediction on the bulls v Stromers. I’m still enjoying getting the round this week. But still out of the money so who really cares………
May 28th 2012 @ 10:31am
Sam Taulelei said | May 28th 2012 @ 10:31am | Report comment
But the Bulls play the Stormers at Loftus and they’re more difficult to beat there
May 28th 2012 @ 12:09pm
Suzy Poison said | May 28th 2012 @ 12:09pm | Report comment
As a Stormers fan, I would be surprised if the Stormers beat the Bulls at Loftus. Not many teams win there, for starters. I am also predicting the Stormers will slip down the table possibly as low as fifth, behind the Crusaders. But it all depends on how quickly Schalk and Duane come back from injury after June Internationals. However I can’t see the Sharks overtaking the Stormers, as they too have to play the Bulls. After the June internationals, the Stormers have a much better draw, than most. Lions in Cape Town, Cheetahs in Bloem and Rebels in Cape Town. So while they will drop off, after this weekend, they will probably experience a little mini revival post June Internationals, especially with the human wrecking ball Schalk Burger back. This still probably won’t be enough to lock in number one in the conferance. I am picking the Bulls to easily win the Saffa Conference.
May 28th 2012 @ 11:04am
Brett McKay said | May 28th 2012 @ 11:04am | Report comment
it’s not often that this happens Sam, I’m afraid you’re wrong on this one. Leftie’s table is correct, as the Reds have 8 wins the ‘Canes 7, and points differential is the second point of breaking a points tie after the most number of wins in all matches.
(wins – pts differential – tries – try diff – coin toss is the process)
Sam Tauleiei miscalculating – they’d said it’d never happen…
Leftie, another quality analysis as usual..
May 28th 2012 @ 2:25pm
Sam Taulelei said | May 28th 2012 @ 2:25pm | Report comment
Quite right, thanks for pointing that out.
Just looked at the ladder via iPhone app which they’ve obviously not adjusted correctly either.
Carry on LAS.
May 28th 2012 @ 9:23am
LeftArmSpinner said | May 28th 2012 @ 9:23am | Report comment
Shungmao, I agree with your analysis. The sharks were the final straw. And while I want the reds in the finals, I tipped the sharks and got the round as a result!
May 28th 2012 @ 9:36am
stillmissit said | May 28th 2012 @ 9:36am | Report comment
LAS – I don’t know how you do it but you do and do it well. Based on what you are saying the season is over for the Reds unless the mathematical gods come to their rescue – which has happened to other teams before but it is a rarity.
I am concerned that the real Ewan is starting to reappear, I hope he stops and reflects on the wonderful running team he brought to greatness with his structured brain. He must clamp his natural conservative nature and embraces the wonderful primal soup he was handed in Qld. by Mooney. This is the key to him making it big as a Wallaby coach but I wonder if he has it in him?
May 28th 2012 @ 9:50am
LeftArmSpinner said | May 28th 2012 @ 9:50am | Report comment
SMI, here is the secret. Don’t tell anyone else!
Once we get to round 12 or so, Cut and paste the draw and then score each game, including bonus points because they make such a difference. Then update each week.
Takes about 10 minutes a week, once the initial work is done.
As I said ink my previous article, http://www.theroar.com.au/2012/05/02/super-rugby-champions-will-be-decided-in-round-17/, it comes down to just a few games, once you assume that form will dictate the results and there will be no surprises.
This weekend, the Bulls and Stormers will define the season for both as willl round 17′s chiefs v crusaders.
May 28th 2012 @ 10:30am
rsuwy said | May 28th 2012 @ 10:30am | Report comment
Sam taulelei
the hurricanes points average doesn’t come into effect as the reds have more wins than they do.
so the reds are 8th.