Reds still don’t control their own destiny
Roar Guru By LeftArmSpinner, 28 May 2012 LeftArmSpinner is a Roar Guru
- Tagged:
- ACT Brumbies, Highlanders, Queensland Reds, Rugby Union, Super Rugby
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The Queensland Reds will fall just short of the 2012 Super Rugby playoffs by my projections, despite their win over the Brumbies on the weekend.
Even with their excellent form since week 10, notching up five wins from six games, including a thumping triumph over the competition leading Chiefs, my projections are that it will not be enough to make the playoffs.
The Reds are going head to head with the Sharks for sixth place and a qualifying finals game against the Brumbies in Canberra in week one of the playoffs, with the Highlanders also seeking that remaining play-off place.
The Reds are currently in eighth place with 40 points from eight wins and four bonus points. The Sharks are currently in sixth place with 46 points from eight wins and nine bonus points. The Highlanders are in seventh place on 44 points from nine wins and four bonus points.
The Reds have a bye, the Rebels (away), Highlanders (home) and the Waratahs (home). The Sharks play the Lions (a), bye, Bulls (h), Cheetahs (h). The Highlanders play the Crusaders (a), Chiefs(h), Reds (a) and finish with a bye.
The Highlanders will be banished from the playoffs by the Crusaders in Christchurch in the coming round. If the Sharks defeat the Lions and Cheetahs with a bonus point and lose to the Bulls by seven points or less, they will finish on 61 points.
The Reds are capable of winning all of their remaining games with a four try bonus point, amassing 59 points in the process.
With the wild card place out of their control, can the Reds get an automatic playoffs place by winning the Australian conference?
The Brumbies meet the three of the four lowest ranked teams in the Rebels (a), Force (a), Waratahs (a), Blues (h).
I predict that the Brumbies will win all of these games with three bonus points (Force, Rebels and Blues), resulting in 64 competition points, a buffer of five points over the Reds. Third place on merit and a Friday evening qualifying finals game in Canberra against the recently arrived Sharks.
If it were come down to points difference, the Brumbies have 64 points difference, the Sharks 57 and the Reds -25.
As the finals draw closer, the upsets of the first eight weeks of the season disappear as the aspirants’ motivation rises and the also-rans motivation wanes.
It is disappointing that the Reds are most unlikely to make the playoffs. The Reds v Brumbies game last Saturday evening was a wonderful game of rugby between two sharp, well coached teams.
The damage to the Reds season was not done by the injury toll. Every team has had their injuries. The damage was done in the early weeks of the season when the Reds left a four try bonus point on the table against the Rebels at home (11-6), the trashing of their points differential by the 61 point blow-out against the Bulls and missing the win or at least two bonus points in the thrashing by the Force in round six (45-19).
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- Explore:
- ACT Brumbies, Highlanders, Queensland Reds, Rugby Union, Super Rugby
May 28th 2012 @ 10:33am
Suzy Poison said | May 28th 2012 @ 10:33am | Report comment
Agree with everything you have said LAS. By my calculations, it’s very unlikely the Reds will make the top six, even by winning every game from now on. The Shark’s win on the weekend, shut the door for the Reds. The Canes and Highlanders, are also looking to miss out. My predicted top six will end like this.
1. Chiefs
2. Bulls
3. Brumbies
4. Crusaders
5. Stormers
6. Sharks
Calling that the Chiefs will win the final now?
May 28th 2012 @ 1:14pm
stillmissit said | May 28th 2012 @ 1:14pm | Report comment
hi Suzy good to see you here. I have a gut feeling that the Bulls will do it, based on the backs they have and a decent pack.
May 28th 2012 @ 1:51pm
Suzy Poison said | May 28th 2012 @ 1:51pm | Report comment
Well, the Chiefs have always had a decent backline, now they have the piggies too, so I am backing them to win it. For the Bulls, Morne is a little underrated in that he can fling the pill around too, when he wants too. He is fairly one dimensional kicking number 10, but not as bad as some would make out. It all depends on who gets the number 1 spot. Even if the Chiefs lose to the Saders, they still have that wrapped up.
May 29th 2012 @ 8:13am
jason said | May 29th 2012 @ 8:13am | Report comment
The biggest threat to the Chiefs if they finish top of the table is the Crusaders. I really do believe that the Crusaders are the only team that can topple the Chiefs at home in a playoff game.
My top 6
1. Chiefs
2. Stormers
3. Brumbies
4. Crusaders
5. Bulls
6. Sharks
If the Brumbies win their playoff game against the 6th place qualifier,
A Chiefs – Crusaders Semi in potentially on the cards.
The Crusaders could get knocked out in a semi final in South Africa, if they have to travel to the Republic
If the Chiefs can avoid the Crusaders, I believe they will win the comp.
May 29th 2012 @ 10:57am
Red Kev said | May 29th 2012 @ 10:57am | Report comment
I see The Sharks have signed Frans Steyn back from Racing Metro 12 (or whoever it is he plays for) from the end of the June test window. Lambie and Steyn in the team. It will be interesting to see where they play the man – at 12 outside Michalak with Lambie at 15 or Lambie at 10 and Steyn at 15. Either way it might be time to bust out my Sharks jersey I got given back in 2001 when a mate visited Durban.
May 29th 2012 @ 12:16pm
Suzy Poison said | May 29th 2012 @ 12:16pm | Report comment
Yes Red Kev. Meyer went to France, some months ago, to bring back Frans Styen. It’s fair to say, he has almost built his team around Steyn. Meyer said he sees him, as a out and out 12. The Sharks will play him at 12, and so will the Boks. Probably have Michalak at 10 (he had a good game against Stormers there) and Lambie at 15, where he play for Boks too. Steyn is playing for the Boks in two weeks time against England at 12. The talk is, Jean De Villiers will been asked to to play outside centre to accomodate Steyn at 12. But who knows. There is also talk of bringing Fourie Du Preez, back from Japan to captain the team.
May 28th 2012 @ 10:50am
Chris said | May 28th 2012 @ 10:50am | Report comment
Given how tight things are, if the Brumbies manage to lose one of their remaining games the Reds are going to rue the decision of Horwill to go for goal against the Blues.
70-odd minutes, the Reds had the game won and Horwill goes for goal. The Reds missed out on the BP. How crucial could that one point be at the end!
May 28th 2012 @ 11:31am
sittingbison said | May 28th 2012 @ 11:31am | Report comment
I find it hilarious when statements like “they play the Force at Perth so thats a bonus point win” are bandied around.
LAS you are erudite and thoughtful, however this presumption is preposterous. If anything the Brumbies will drop four points against Force rather than gain 5. What statistical analysis leads to a bonus point win? The two point loss in Canberra? Two one point losses against Rebel who have fantastic concession advantages? A in and loss against Reds and Tahs? Sooooo….how many bonus point hidings is that? None.
The only bad losses for the Force were Hurricanes who counter attacked brilliantly from brain dead aimless kicking (thanks RG, and did rebels watch that game? I think not) and also got a couple of very lucky breaks, and the Shorks at the Shark Tank after the disappointment of being cheetahd against the Cheetahs (my lame attempt at humour)
And it has been noticeable the past month the Force have ditched RGs brainless kicking plan and are attempting to play ball in hand running attacking rugby. They might not be very good at it, but the attempt is there. And they have enough firepower (I’m on a roll hehe) with Nalaga, Cummins, Mafi and Wara plus the back row to punish any team who wants to play like the Brumbies did the other night.
So perhaps slightly more analysis of possible outcomes and less presumption.
May 28th 2012 @ 1:58pm
LeftArmSpinner said | May 28th 2012 @ 1:58pm | Report comment
sitting bison,
Well, you have to make some assumptions otherwise there are too many variables confusing things.
The only statistical analysis is the comp table, wins, loses, for and against, and recent form.
The Brumbies are in form and playing winning rugby. the force have been poor, at best. their first half against the Rebels and their toweling up by the Sharks was very poor. They don’t have a head coach. They dont have anything, other than pride, to play for and that has not been enough other than against the even worse lions, after the force let them into the game early on.
the Bumbies are most unlikley to drop 4 points to the force and if they do, they deserve not to make the playoffs.
It is 5 V 13 after all. One team has a great coach and the others don’t have a coach at all.
Nalaga has finally started to get some ball and Cummins has been good. Mafi looks better and more evasive and confident than i have seen in a few years.
SB, you have to make assumptions for the predictions to materialise………………………. all things being equal, I will be tipping the Brumbies to defeat the Force.
May 28th 2012 @ 11:49am
The Bush said | May 28th 2012 @ 11:49am | Report comment
Sharks are actually only on forty-five (45) points, but doesn’t really change much. I also disagree about the away game against the Force – we were smashed, you can rue “missed” opportunities when you’re that thoroughly beaten.
The Reds season can be summed up as follows;
1. No bonus points in the first three rounds, including two home games against conference minnows, winning isn’t enough in Super Rugby; and
2. A failure to beat teams ranked ahead of us. If the Reds had won one of either the Sharks or the Crusaders game, everything would be different and both games were very winnable. In any event, the fact that the only non-Australian teams we’ve beaten that are higher ranked is the Chiefs sums up the season – losing to the Sharks, Bulls, Stormers and Crusaders, all likely finalists, meant we didn’t deserve to be there.
May 28th 2012 @ 12:17pm
The Bush said | May 28th 2012 @ 12:17pm | Report comment
you can’t rue “missed” opportunities when you’re that thoroughly beaten.
May 28th 2012 @ 12:46pm
Red Kev said | May 28th 2012 @ 12:46pm | Report comment
You also can’t ignore the fact that the Force game came in the third week of a tour and after two very bad matches against (a) the Sharks where they gave up a 17 point lead and (b) the Bulls where they got absolutely thrashed. And in one of those two matches (can’t remember which one but I think it was against the Sharks) they also lost their two preferred flyhalves (Harris and Lucas who joined two already injured in Cooper and Lance).
May 28th 2012 @ 1:57pm
sittingbison said | May 28th 2012 @ 1:57pm | Report comment
everyone seems to forget the Force had and have their own injury worries, especially in the crucial 10 and 12. FFS we have been playing Dave Harvey a Shute Shield guy at 10!! Chucky was our 3rd choice 10, he is actually a 9. Also first two choice 12s out for season, playing Winston Stanley (in first season) there.
Reds were at the end of the road literally and figuratively, they ran out of gas. Force were on a bit of a high, they just beat the Tahs and only got pipped by 2 points by Brums and 1 pt by Rebels so at that point of the season anything was possible.
Its these games that bight you at the end of the season though, not the great wins you have.
May 28th 2012 @ 2:11pm
The Bush said | May 28th 2012 @ 2:11pm | Report comment
Red Kev,
I’m not sure what your point was? We lost fair and square agains the Force, whether it occured after a tour to South Africa or not, we were thumped and cannot talk about “missed” opportunities with that game. You mention the Sharks game and giving away a seventeen (17) point lead – that’s a missed opportunity.
May 28th 2012 @ 2:28pm
Red Kev said | May 28th 2012 @ 2:28pm | Report comment
My point was this:
LeftArmSpinner:
“The damage to the Reds season was not done by the injury toll. Every team has had their injuries. The damage was done in the early weeks of the season when the Reds left a four try bonus point on the table against the Rebels at home (11-6), the trashing of their points differential by the 61 point blow-out against the Bulls and missing the win or at least two bonus points in the thrashing by the Force in round six (45-19).”
Red Kev:
“The Reds will look back and regret not being able to put the Sharks away. Giving up the lead to the Sharks was the point their season was lost. It opened the door for that pasting at the hands of the Bulls which then brought them to Perth down on confidence and allowed the Force to hammer them as well.”
The Bush:
“I also disagree about the away game against the Force – we were smashed, you can rue “missed” opportunities when you’re that thoroughly beaten.”
You can rue the missed opportunity of that game against the Force. That is a match that should never have been lost by this Reds team; and the only reason it was lost is that 4 flyhalves were injured and they were on the third week of a tour where they have been performing poorly (giving up a lead against the Sharks and then getting demoralised by the Bulls).
I disagree with your opening statement.
I don’t disagree with point 2, in fact I make a similar point.
Maybe it’s just a lost in translation language problem – I’m reading what you wrote to mean something that you didn’t mean at all.
May 28th 2012 @ 2:00pm
LeftArmSpinner said | May 28th 2012 @ 2:00pm | Report comment
Bushie, also, the reds didnt deserve to win the first game of the season against the tahs. I am not complaining, but if a true assessment is done, it has been a season of underperformance, even after the injuries.
May 28th 2012 @ 2:09pm
The Bush said | May 28th 2012 @ 2:09pm | Report comment
LAS,
The Reds may not have deserved to beat the ‘Tahs, though my way of looking at it is that winning teams win those games and loser teams lose them. The Reds season hasn’t been what we expected, but it is undeniable that at least for the next season or two (2) they are a “winning” team (i.e. above the bottom half) whilst the Waratahs are in danger of become a “loser team” (i.e. think Reds circa 2004-2009).
I thorougly agree that it has been a season of underperformance. How they can play away to the Crusaders like they did, yet play such average rugby against the Lions and Rebels (earlier in the season) really brings into question just how motivated they have been this year.
On a positive note, plenty of young talent is emerging, Gill, Schatz, Hanson, Shipperley and Morahan. If the Reds can keep Cooper, they’ve already resigned Genia, there appears to be plenty of talent in the Second Row, Back Row and outside backs (they’ve resigned Ioane), I expect they’ll be there or there abouts for the next few years.
May 28th 2012 @ 4:17pm
LeftArmSpinner said | May 28th 2012 @ 4:17pm | Report comment
bushie, i completely agree. the reds won it. end of story. the point is that they didnt play that well. equally, the best teams build into the season. jsut look at the crusaders. but it is a delicately timed thing.
May 28th 2012 @ 2:00pm
LeftArmSpinner said | May 28th 2012 @ 2:00pm | Report comment
gents, everyone has injuries. part and parcel of the game. live with it.
May 28th 2012 @ 2:48pm
Rhino said | May 28th 2012 @ 2:48pm | Report comment
Agree that Reds good form of late will most likely will not amount to much.
It will be a strange situation though that the Reds may well record more victories than possibly two of the other finalists yet not feature in the finals.
Yes, it shows how important the bonus point system is (duhh) but I wonder if the within 7 points bonus point should be scrapped. Keep the 4 try bonus point by all means to encourage attacking play but shouldn’t a competition reward winning and attacking foremost, and if you lose – even by just a point – then stiff cheddar you get nada.
May 28th 2012 @ 3:42pm
formeropenside said | May 28th 2012 @ 3:42pm | Report comment
It also shows the luck of the draw, year to year, in who you miss out on playing from the other conferences (and to a degree, where you play them).
At least home and away evens out over two years; ideally, but it takes 5 years to average out missing a team.
As Link made the point in his article last week – in which he laid out how to beat the Brumbies – the Reds and Brumbies had the same number of wins, but the Reds had played (and lost to) both the Stormers and Crusaders, which the Brums miss this year.
Mind you, the sudden decline of the Blues has led to some adjustments in who got a good draw as well: subject to the fear (and from a reds POV, hope) that the Blues suddenly recover lost form and win their last few games to salvage some pride).
May 28th 2012 @ 4:19pm
LeftArmSpinner said | May 28th 2012 @ 4:19pm | Report comment
you say duhh yet the stormers have refused to collect or recognise boinus points.they have just two BP’s.
May 28th 2012 @ 3:46pm
Rhino said | May 28th 2012 @ 3:46pm | Report comment
Yep, there will be a lot of Reds fans cheering for some sworn enemies come July. Tahs, Force & Blues will have Red army behind them in their games against Brumbies.
May 28th 2012 @ 4:13pm
formeropenside said | May 28th 2012 @ 4:13pm | Report comment
I dont know if I can bring myself to cheer for the Tahs. I think I’m hoping for a 0-0 draw (and lots of injuries to the Tahs due to the upcoming match against the Reds).
May 29th 2012 @ 6:43pm
murph said | May 29th 2012 @ 6:43pm | Report comment
brilliant
May 28th 2012 @ 10:10pm
Ash said | May 28th 2012 @ 10:10pm | Report comment
Obviously Bryce Lawrence got the job done.
May 30th 2012 @ 5:25am
Geoff Brisbane now California said | May 30th 2012 @ 5:25am | Report comment
Great analysis LAS thanks for the insight, looking forward to the unfolding of it all after the internationals which could be crucial in terms of injuries etc. But depth is always the winner.