If you’re not gonna bet, get out of the ground
By Ben Pobjie, 15 Jun 2012 Ben Pobjie is a Roar Expert
Jarryd Hayne is cornered by two referees. (AAP Image/Action Photographics,Colin Whelan)
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I feel so ashamed of myself. I had thought that I was a committed sporting fan, that I was really devoted to the spectating of quality professional athletic endeavours, and that I followed my teams with as much fervour and passion as anyone could ask for.
I thought I was a true fanatic, but while watching the second State of Origin on Channel Nine (motto: We’re Still A One!), I came to the depressing realisation that I was a fraud.
Because you see, though I was watching the game, I wasn’t really involved in the game. I wasn’t fully engaged.
Because I… I… look this is pretty hard for me to admit in front of you all… OK here we go…
I… don’t care about the odds.
Oh! The shame! But yes, it is good to get that off my chest and stop living a lie.
You’ll remember of course, the appearance at regular intervals during the match of a pretty young lass, smiling in friendly manner at us, and expressing a sincere and heartwarming hope that we were enjoying the game (we were, young lady, by the way, thanks for asking!).
She then informed us of the odds on the two teams, and gave us a valuable reminder that we could still bet during the game, a generous service offered by gaming agencies for the edification of their customers. The woman was performing what can only de described as a crucial public service, and much kudos is due her public-mindedness.
And yet…
And yet it fills me with sorrow to say that I took no advantage of her perky pronouncements. I did not, in fact, bet on the game. I didn’t have a flutter. I didn’t make the sport come alive by putting my money where my mouth was.
No wagers, of an exotic or otherwise nature, were laid by me, and it thus became impossible for me to avoid the conclusion that as a sports fan, I am but a flitting dilettante.
Why, even when an ad came on informing me of the thrilling news that while a certain company couldn’t promise me that every bet would win (haha, oh they kid, they kid!), they could promise me the best online betting experience ever… even then I kept my credit card firmly in my pocket.
And if I can’t be tempted even by the promise of a really high-quality online betting experience, what hope is there? Obviously there is simply no sporting blood in me.
I had suspected as much, of course, when I heard Tom Waterhouse tell me “I was born to bet”, and utterly failed to react by thinking, “Goodness, with that sort of bloodline, I would foolish not to give him my money”, and instead thought, “Goodness, what a five-star platinum-plated knob-end this fellow is.”
Harsh, unworthy thoughts for someone who claims to be “into sport”.
And my awful suspicions were only confirmed during the Origin match, when like some lazy braind-dead slug of a man, I sat there staring witlessly at the ‘action’, perfectly content to let the tense, brutal drama of state football whiz past, without once taking any positive steps to bring the game to life through the magic of gaming.
God knows the commentators did their best. “Look at the Keno replay!” cried Wally Lewis, trying to help me help myself, but I ignored him just as I ignored the pretty young gambling lady, happy to let the sponsor mentions wash over me as if they were no more significant than Phil Gould’s constant calls for the rules of rugby league to be suspended, or Ray Warren’s habit of calling players by their first names in the mistaken impression they are his grandchildren, because I am just a poser. Not a proper fan at all.
And so I have a lot of hard thinking to do. Maybe I’m just not cut out to be a fan. If all I can be bothered to do is watch the game and cheer the players and become engrossed by the play and pore over the match reports and emotionally invest myself in the fortunes of the teams… what’s the point of watching sport at all?
If I am going to go through life not even having the basic good old Aussie decency to get my wallet out and have a splash, to feel the delicious thrill of having cash riding on events out of my control, to enjoy the bliss of a big win or the crashing despair of blowing a week’s pay on the likelihood of Inglis scoring the first try… if I am to remain so detached from the true meaning of sport… what right have I to follow sport at all?
Should I not just give it up and find another interest, one where my apathy and indifference don’t matter so much?
Or should I make the effort to become a true fan, by flinging money at the TAB and Betfair and Sportsbet and Sportingbet and Centrebet as hard and as fast as I can, in the hope that finally it will click, and I will, at last, understand what sport is all about? It might be expensive, but surely it would be worth it, to finally feel like I belong?
One thing is certain – I can’t continue the way I have been. Because if a man isn’t willing to bet on a game, that game might as well not even happen.
Ben Pobjie is a writer and comedian writing weekly on The Age, New Matilda and The Roar, whose promising rugby career was tragically cut short the day he stopped playing rugby and had a pizza instead. The most he has ever cried was the day Balmain lost the 1989 grand final. Today he enjoys the frolics of Wallabies, Swans, baggy greens, and Storms. Ben is also the author of the books Surveying the Wreckage, Superchef, and his latest, The Book of Bloke, available from Momentum Books.
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- NRL, Rugby League, sports gambling, State Of Origin, State of Origin 2012

June 15th 2012 @ 1:40am
jdubya said | June 15th 2012 @ 1:40am | Report comment
Decent article and it is particulary interesting for me because I have been heavily involved in sports betting for a while now. I was taught by my old man who was a reputable financial guy at Macquarie bank, the methods we use are fairly sophisticated.
There are two types of punters – the gambler you see at the pub on a saturday arvo and the punter who sees the betting markets as any other financial market. Sports betting done right is no different to playing the stock market or trading currency. I am extremely interested in odds, not because I want to throw down a 50 on a long shot but rather I see it is an opportunity to possibly exploit an odds discrepancy, known as arbitrage, with almost zero risk. I find it mildly annoyig when I tell people I make money through betting exchanges and get lumpe in with the typical gambler – what a lot of people do is no difference to any other open market exchange.
June 15th 2012 @ 9:11am
mushi said | June 15th 2012 @ 9:11am | Report comment
Why should you care what they think?
The arbitrage exists because of asymmetrical market information. If they all went “hmm very wise I think that is a great career” then the arbitrage would trade out of the market and you’d need a new job.
June 15th 2012 @ 10:08am
sheek said | June 15th 2012 @ 10:08am | Report comment
So………. run that one by me again……….?????
June 15th 2012 @ 11:00am
jdubya said | June 15th 2012 @ 11:00am | Report comment
Sheek , put simply, an arbitrage is where you can have a wager on both sides of a two horse race and have no risk of loss.
They are hard to find and generally don’t last very long, so if more people know what to look for it would make it harder for the people who make their livings of finding arbs.
June 15th 2012 @ 10:57am
jdubya said | June 15th 2012 @ 10:57am | Report comment
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t want the betting masses to educate themselves
I just don’t understand why a trader of stocks or currency gets more respect than somebody who does effectively the same thing they do but with betting exchanges, my mum and girlfriend still think I’m some degenerate gambler because they don’t understand. Actually on second thoughts I couldn’t care less, as long as I get my money at the end of the day I’m happy.
June 15th 2012 @ 2:14pm
sheek said | June 15th 2012 @ 2:14pm | Report comment
jdudya,
I basically caught on to what you meant. The fundamentals, that is. However, naturally, I’m lost on the actual nuts & bolts working of it (arbitage).
I think you’re a guy I should meet & know…..!
June 15th 2012 @ 3:16pm
jdubya said | June 15th 2012 @ 3:16pm | Report comment
Sheek you have inspired me too mock up a draft article focusing on the three faces of sports betting – the bookie, the everyday punter, and the calculating professional.
Will see how it turns out.
June 15th 2012 @ 3:37pm
ScottWoodward.me said | June 15th 2012 @ 3:37pm | Report comment
jdubya
I have written such an eBook and would be happy to offer it free but I doubt The Roar bosses would allow it.
YES you can arb, no you cannot on the NRL properly and professionally on a regular basis because:
* there is not enough liquidity on Betfair
* very rarely do they bet into 100% markets
* the NRL lines are very accurate and unless you are aware of an injury etc, it is difficult to get “overs”
Having said that, the market does make mistakes and if you have a good network you can beat it, but you dont have to arbitrage.
If you keep on betting into an overs market place, mathematics dictate that YOU WILL WIN over 12 months.
To give you an example of your big enemy the bookie. The grab a big margin, so you must win at 54.5% of your line bets at 1.91 just to break even. I am tracking at over 60% in 2012 which is considered exceptional. Most pros in the US plan for 56% and that is a big year.
June 15th 2012 @ 3:50pm
jdubya said | June 15th 2012 @ 3:50pm | Report comment
Drew Kasch’s How to Milk the Betting Exchange is still the best book I have read on the subject. Was given to me when I was 16 by my old man.
I am more interested in longer term futures markets than individual games or tournaments, I prefer to be able to trade out of my position if circumstances change and I feel that time is your friend when dealing with bookies, because as you said the Bookies already have every edge. I don’t buy into the grinding arb approach, I prefer to make a few large plays a year mainly because I don’t really have time to put the hours in to compete with others out there.
June 15th 2012 @ 3:30pm
mushi said | June 15th 2012 @ 3:30pm | Report comment
Two ways one is where the market (bet fair etc) allows you to lay off at better odds than that offered by the bookie.
Another is to find bookies that are a distance apart on the same game i.e. one has the underdog paying $2.45 and another has the favourite paying $1.75. If you put $10,000 on the 2.45 and $14,000 on the 1.75 you make $500 regardless of the outcome of the match.
Not entirely risk free as you take credit risk on the bookies/exchange. Similar to how hedge funds thought they had risk free structures until the banks started going belly up.
June 15th 2012 @ 3:32pm
mushi said | June 15th 2012 @ 3:32pm | Report comment
Sorry Jdubya (read ahead mushi you idiot)… I’m sure your article will be more thorough and informative anyway!
June 15th 2012 @ 4:04pm
jdubya said | June 15th 2012 @ 4:04pm | Report comment
Don’t hold your breath.
June 15th 2012 @ 2:28pm
kos1nsk1 said | June 15th 2012 @ 2:28pm | Report comment
Too right jdubya … I’m a wine “connoisseur” and everyone else are p*ssheads.
June 15th 2012 @ 2:41pm
jdubya said | June 15th 2012 @ 2:41pm | Report comment
I only drink the finest kos. Heaven forbid I would ever have to taste any of that disgusting brown water the plebs call beer.
June 15th 2012 @ 6:58pm
Adam said | June 15th 2012 @ 6:58pm | Report comment
Thanks for the insight jdubya. So what you are saying is that you are willing to use your brain and presumably fortunate socioeconomic position in society to take money from companies that can only afford to give you that money because they make much more profit from taking advantage of people with serious addictions. Not only that, but they have enough money to pay you, pay for all the advertisements, and pay for all the employees and infrastructure associated with their company, while making a tidy profit.
Where does your money come from? Do you care? Fan of Ayn Rand?
And before you tell me that it’s no different to other markets, remind me what the prevalence of addiction is in each of those markets.
June 16th 2012 @ 1:44am
jdubya said | June 16th 2012 @ 1:44am | Report comment
I prefer to think of myself as a modern day Robin Hood, I take from the evil bookies (not much I might add) and give it back to the poor through our thorough tax redistribution system.
Lighten up mate, there are losers whenever money is involved but for some reason you want to demonise me but not poker players or people at the casino. Do you think about who packages the food you buy? Who makes your clothes? No you don’t because it is pointless to worry about things that are out of your control.
June 16th 2012 @ 1:56am
Adam said | June 16th 2012 @ 1:56am | Report comment
In answer to your questions: Yes and yes. I actively boycott supermarkets for several reasons and will tell anyone who cares to listen. I also would say exactly the same thing about poker players if it is clear that they are taking from people with gambling addictions.
Bookies make profits or they wouldn’t be bookies. You *are* taking money quite directly from those people who suffer from gambling addiction if you, as you say, are adept at making a profit from gambling. Instead of using your skills to make yourself richer than I assume you already are, why don’t you use your brainpower to help those people who have lost the ability to help themselves and their families. That’s not out of your control – you could do something about it as soon as tomorrow. Not because you owe them anything but because you are smart enough to do something more useful.
June 16th 2012 @ 2:10am
jdubya said | June 16th 2012 @ 2:10am | Report comment
But the best people to help are those closest to you, and the best way to help them is financially. I’d also like to clear up that I am in fact not “rich” (as if that would matter at all).
Take your moralism somewhere else.
June 16th 2012 @ 3:52am
Mushi said | June 16th 2012 @ 3:52am | Report comment
“will tell anyone who cares to listen” not an active speaking circuit I take it?
June 15th 2012 @ 8:08am
The Bush said | June 15th 2012 @ 8:08am | Report comment
Considering gambling is a well known problem in our society and falls into the unique category of activities/hobbies/addictions, along with smoking and drinking, that requires the government to actually tell us not to do it as we do it (for obvious reasons), it is only a matter of time before it is illegal to advertise gambling during sport in the manner it is done now.
Rightly or wrongly, the nannystate will rule sooner or later…
June 15th 2012 @ 8:20am
Bondy said | June 15th 2012 @ 8:20am | Report comment
I had suspected as much, of course, when I heard Tom Waterhouse tell me “I was born to bet”, lol I’ll get off the floor.
It’s not about the sport is it , if we can get young kids learning what is and isnt good value their set for life or as Tom would say born to gamble.
I’m watching Euro 2012′s all of them “bookies” are all over that like a carcas, interesting to note Coca Cola enblassened around the advertising screens at the euros,and people outside are trying to kill one another “Corporates Why- because we care”.
Enjoyable read Ben.
June 15th 2012 @ 9:16am
mushi said | June 15th 2012 @ 9:16am | Report comment
and more accurately he was “born to make you gamble” or launder money depending on which family member he follows closest.
June 15th 2012 @ 11:47am
Gareth said | June 15th 2012 @ 11:47am | Report comment
He’s probably not far off with the “born to bet” part. His old man would have known his own proclivities would catch up to him eventually, he just had to wait 18 years for his proxy to be old enough to work through. That and it’s more catchy than “I was born to give Eddie Hayson loans he can’t possibly pay with the hopes that his brothels will one day be mine!”
June 15th 2012 @ 3:41pm
ScottWoodward.me said | June 15th 2012 @ 3:41pm | Report comment
Gareth
There is only one brothel.
June 15th 2012 @ 9:01pm
JVGO said | June 15th 2012 @ 9:01pm | Report comment
Scott, you shouldn’t know that. But nevertheless I love how an article bemoaning the prevalence of gambling has become an erudite discussion of the punt and brothels. Would never happen on the RU thread.
June 15th 2012 @ 8:26am
Mark Young said | June 15th 2012 @ 8:26am | Report comment
I agree very VERY strongly with this article Ben.
What is the matter with Sport? We just got rid of having ciggy advertising all over the grounds, players, cars, trophies and now…. we are straight into Booze and Gambling.
Geez.
Everytime I see Munsie, Tom Waterhouse etc on the set during my games, it drives me up the wall.
Not Jaimee Rogers though, how could anyone hate Jaimee, she is so damn happy!! Nearly as happy as the girl on the Australian Fleet Sales Ads.
June 15th 2012 @ 8:45am
B.A Sports said | June 15th 2012 @ 8:45am | Report comment
I’m the same Mark.
Young Jamie seems like such a pleasant girl. Munise on the other hand – thinks he is some sort of celebrity. When he is on radio he tells us where he will be and what he did on the weeknd like we care anymore about his life than the traffic reporter.
As for Tom Waterhouse – i get confused. If he is so good at betting, why would i go to his site and bet against him? How could I win?
I enjoy putting a $5 bet on as much as the next person, but it is so in your face now, that i have just got bored with it and don’t anymore.
Say what you like about American sport, you don’t get betting rammed down your throat – the odds aren’t even allowed to be mentioned on TV.
June 15th 2012 @ 10:10am
sheek said | June 15th 2012 @ 10:10am | Report comment
But BA Sports, Tom is there for YOU. He wants to help you relieve yourself of your hard-earned cash…..
June 15th 2012 @ 3:43pm
ScottWoodward.me said | June 15th 2012 @ 3:43pm | Report comment
BA
That may explain why they are broke and in for 16 trillion
June 15th 2012 @ 11:36pm
JVGO said | June 15th 2012 @ 11:36pm | Report comment
As in no outlet for futile specualtion other than the stock market, real estate, venture capital, tax evasion, massive ponzi schemes, media manipulation, confidence ticks, religious charlatans and a host of ther activities where faith and belief are more significant than reality just like in Vegas? Are you suggesting Scott that the US could do with a few afternoons down at the TAB to wise themselves up? Maybe it wouldn’t hurt.
June 16th 2012 @ 3:54am
Mushi said | June 16th 2012 @ 3:54am | Report comment
I think that is talking your own book 101
June 15th 2012 @ 8:26am
Will Sinclair said | June 15th 2012 @ 8:26am | Report comment
“I had suspected as much, of course, when I heard Tom Waterhouse tell me “I was born to bet”, and utterly failed to react by thinking, “Goodness, with that sort of bloodline, I would foolish not to give him my money”, and instead thought, “Goodness, what a five-star platinum-plated knob-end this fellow is.””
OK – we can now shut down The Roar website.
No one – and I mean NO ONE – is ever going to top that paragraph.
Brilliant stuff.
June 15th 2012 @ 12:16pm
AJ said | June 15th 2012 @ 12:16pm | Report comment
Seconded. Hell, thirded and fourthed.
Best paragraph ever. In one of the funniest articles ever. Spot on Ben!!
June 15th 2012 @ 8:29am
Will Sinclair said | June 15th 2012 @ 8:29am | Report comment
I actually did have a bet on the Origin. Brett Stewart 1st Try / NSW 1-12 at 50/1.
So I am quite happy with sports betting at the moment. The Punting Gods are benevolent and kind, and I bow before them. (Until next week, of course.)
June 15th 2012 @ 9:03am
jamesb said | June 15th 2012 @ 9:03am | Report comment
Great article Ben.
Not a fan of these betting ads, except for Jaimee Rogers of course.
Here is a story:
My mate bet a horse at 12 to 1 and the race finished at 4:30pm
June 15th 2012 @ 9:07am
mushi said | June 15th 2012 @ 9:07am | Report comment
The Punting gods will smite you
June 15th 2012 @ 10:27am
Will Sinclair said | June 15th 2012 @ 10:27am | Report comment
They certainly have before, Mushi.
The Punting Gods can be unusually cruel at times.
June 15th 2012 @ 2:32pm
kos1nsk1 said | June 15th 2012 @ 2:32pm | Report comment
The rest of the time they are just run-of-the-mill cruel
June 15th 2012 @ 9:19am
Silegusta said | June 15th 2012 @ 9:19am | Report comment
Heartily agree, and as you aptly put, it is almost like enjoying sport for sports sake is now considered anti-social
Reminds me of a better time – when smoking was recommended by the general surgeon and good for your cold! I see some sort of irony that there will always be some absurd habit pushed with a positive spin
Also, very well written article, thankyou!
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June 15th 2012 @ 9:32am
Rabbitz said | June 15th 2012 @ 9:32am | Report comment
Ben,
I am sorry to have to say this, but you are not only a non-fan, but you are also being very Un-Australian.
I can only recommend one course of action, get to the TAB for some ‘counselling’…
June 15th 2012 @ 4:21pm
turbodewd said | June 15th 2012 @ 4:21pm | Report comment
Mr Rabbitz Warren,
tell us how youre going with your 1978 VC commodore and the loan youve taken out to pay for your dialup internet. Gambling, for most punters, sucketh balls.