Will the Welsh defy the Wallabies?
Roar Guru By LeftArmSpinner, 16 Jun 2012 LeftArmSpinner is a Roar Guru
- Tagged:
- robbie deans, Rugby Union, Wales rugby, wallabies, Will Genia
This is the first part of my article on this evening’s Wallabies game against Wales. Coming soon is the second part, where I compare today’s predictions with tonight’s outcomes.
Prediction: The Welsh will bring their A game and the pressure will tell on the Wallabies. The Wallabies will realise that they need the Trois Enfant Terriblé of O’Connor, Beale and Cooper a lot more than they thought.
Despite the betting markets reflecting more support for the Wallabies, I predict that the Welsh will win a close one on the back of a much better performance than last week and parity at the breakdown. The Wallabies backs will struggle because the fly half is under pressure and the Welsh will kick their goals and their outside backs will eventfully reap the rewards of the hard work from the forwards.
Wales get back Gatland, their experienced and motivational if not domestically challenged coach, albeit unofficially.
The Welsh will start playing from the kickoff rather than late in the second half. The Welsh spine of Halfpenny, Priestland, Phillips, Warburton and Rees will perform much better than in the first game and nearer to their previous high standards. North will cause all sort of problems for Vuna. Watch out for an impressive performance from Ashley Beck in the centres.
It all starts at the breakdown. The Wallabies dominated the breakdown last week. This week, the Welsh will achieve parity with their physical, forward pack. No team will dominate the breakdown against the Wallabies while Pocock, and now Hooper, are around.
However, parity can and will cause a ripple effect through the Australian backs. Genia will be less effective but still competent. Barnes will have fewer opportunities, less time and be under more pressure. This is the fulcrum of this game and the series.
Barnes has more respect for the jersey than to openly carry on with the panic decisions and then the huffing and puffing that he displays at the Waratahs. However, it may still be going on in his head. If he cannot control this urge, or deflect the Welsh “attention”, the Wallabies will be in for a long and disappointing night. Quick hands to well placed support runners is the answer. Barnes is not that sort of fly half!
A comparison of each team’s spines is a close run thing. The Welsh win fullback and fly half. The Wallabies win halfback, number 8 and hooker. The main contentious position is fullback. Halfpenny can match Adam Ashley-Cooper’s traditional strengths such as in the air, but exceeds him in open field running.
The Welsh have a lot more to lose than the Wallabies this week. The Rugby World Cup playoff had little meaning. The subsequent rematch in Wales was a fundraiser and a bridge too far for the Welsh who were into their domestic season.
Last week, the Welsh were surprisingly off the pace. This Saturday’s game is their last chance to prove that they are the real deal. The Wallabies, on the other hand, are already through to the final of this three game tournament. Despite the Welsh being so average last week, the Wallabies only scampered home by 8 points.
The Wallabies showed that they are still capable of relaxing at critical stages just like the 2008-2011 versions. This will again occur this weekend.
- Explore:
- robbie deans, Rugby Union, Wales rugby, wallabies, Will Genia
June 16th 2012 @ 5:30am
Original Ben S said | June 16th 2012 @ 5:30am | Report comment
Pocock has been taken out of games before, and he will be made redundant in the future again. Take out the tight five and Pocock is an irrelevance. The Australian forwards did very well against Wales last week and Warburton hadn’t played in weeks. The last time they actually met they cancelled each other out.
June 16th 2012 @ 6:02am
LeftArmSpinner said | June 16th 2012 @ 6:02am | Report comment
Ben, in previous articles, I suggested, and the first game confirmed that the Tahs pack are a very competent set piece. Moore is a better hooker than TPN but TPN is prt of a better pack.
I expect a better performance from Warburton. He is a genuine leader and he will appreciate just how important it will be for him to stand up. Expect a great battle from the sevens.
My assessment is that the welsh can win with parity at the breakdown. Time will tell. We will either be celebrating our accurate predictions or red faced as a result of appallingly inaccurate predictions.
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June 16th 2012 @ 7:22am
Original Ben S said | June 16th 2012 @ 7:22am | Report comment
A lot of the Welsh players looked off the pace last week. It hadn’t crossed my mind that some of them hadn’t played in a while. Regardless, the Australian pack were excellent in the first half – missed the second half, so not sure what to expect this week. Re: the set piece a lot of posters have mentioned the Welsh having the edge in the tight phases. Re: the breakdown I’m surprised Wales haven’t gone for two 7s in Warburton and Tipuric. Apparently Tipuric’s fitness levels are off the chart whereas Ryan Jones is more of a long grass kind of player.
I’m a huge fan of Moore. TPN is dynamic, but Moore is a proper old school tight forward. I wish he were English, tbh.
Really looking forward to the game.
June 16th 2012 @ 10:27am
jeznez said | June 16th 2012 @ 10:27am | Report comment
The Welsh really didn’t seem able to structure anything last week, they pressured out scrum but couldn’t dominate it and despite pre-game commentary that their fitness would run over the top of us they faded at the death. The bombed overlap when a point behind and the Wallabies last try put Wales out of the game and they tried to chase it while little things like the touched box kick from Genia that went out on the full fell luckily for the Wallabies. The bookies have badly mispriced this with the Welsh paying 2.75 – I think it will be close and could go either way but have taken advantage of those odds.
June 16th 2012 @ 1:30pm
Bearfax said | June 16th 2012 @ 1:30pm | Report comment
The second test will be a tougher proposition. The Welsh will be more settled and acclimatised. Australia needs to be at its best. Oh I do wish Beale and O’Connor were playing. Also wish that Cooper and Barnes were there together interchanging between fly half and inside centre. What a backline that would be at its best. Finally Oz forwards are holding their own, thanks to Pococks example.
June 16th 2012 @ 5:38am
The Werewolf said | June 16th 2012 @ 5:38am | Report comment
I disagree that Halfpenny is better than AAC but it matters little who has the better fullback. I think Barnes has it over Priestland, he certainly did last week, so this is what will count and of course as ever the battle at the breakdown.
It could go either way.
June 16th 2012 @ 6:04am
LeftArmSpinner said | June 16th 2012 @ 6:04am | Report comment
I agree that it could go either way. A close run thing, but the novelty of this article is for everyone to make bold predictions and then compare the actuals with the predictions.
June 16th 2012 @ 10:37am
jeznez said | June 16th 2012 @ 10:37am | Report comment
Werewolf, I think the key difference is that the Wallabies largely played close to their potential last week. The Welsh look stronger for mine with the inclusion of Rees and A W Jones, while I don’t think the loss of Faletau will be a big blow if later in the game they sub Evans for Tipuric (similar to what we’ll do with Palu and Hooper).
I expect Halfpenny, Preistland and Phillips to all improve on last week and just generally think the overall Welsh team has shown better form than this throughout the year and should play closer to it.
They were a whisker away from snatching the test last week when they fought to 20-19 down with twenty to go and with what I have said above and the defensive frrailty of Vuna more likely to be exploited if the halves can get the backline moving I agree with LAS that the Welsh are a huge chance of winning this.
June 16th 2012 @ 5:41am
Miglia said | June 16th 2012 @ 5:41am | Report comment
Good stuff, LAS. Agree that Wales will take it. Much stronger team than the run-on in Brisbane. Faletau couldn’t perform with a busted flipper. Lydiate will have gotten a rocket from Gatland. The Jones boys big additions. It could hinge on Priestland’s confidence. Great defensive effort from Barnes in Brisbane, and he’ll be just as effective in that dept in Melbourne. Don’t understand Deans sticking with Vuna. The Ws have to provide cover for him through AAC and Horne getting over there in a hurry. We need Digby to hold onto a few more footballs if we’re to win. Go the Wallabies but the Dragons are looking like winners. However, in Sydney…..
June 16th 2012 @ 6:10am
LeftArmSpinner said | June 16th 2012 @ 6:10am | Report comment
The welsh have more improvement in them than the wallabies. Horne can improve as can vuna, but other than subtle improvements, everyone was at their competent best. The welsh hacve much more room for improvement. The question is whether they can deliver that performance.
June 16th 2012 @ 6:35am
The other Steve said | June 16th 2012 @ 6:35am | Report comment
Very good summary of the situation.
June 16th 2012 @ 6:39am
LeftArmSpinner said | June 16th 2012 @ 6:39am | Report comment
The other Steve, thanks for that. Watch tomorrow for the wrap up, I.e. comparing these predictions to the actual game! “I’m up on the high wire!”
June 16th 2012 @ 8:47am
PeterK said | June 16th 2012 @ 8:47am | Report comment
simmons could improve a lot as well, not physical enough and missed 5 tackles.
Kepu and robinson could up their workrate from that game.
June 16th 2012 @ 9:03am
Uncle Argyle said | June 16th 2012 @ 9:03am | Report comment
Good point. In review of Siimons I thought his defence was woeful. I think Robinson will be better for the run but Kepu with a fitness cloud might be a little exposed around the 45/50 min mark.
June 16th 2012 @ 11:48am
bennalong said | June 16th 2012 @ 11:48am | Report comment
Don’t agree
The Wallabies have a lot of improvement in them and why wouldn’t they, the combinations being new in certain positions and they are just starting a new season
Wales came off a win in the six nations and were well oiled and confident. Very confident.
The question I think revolves around their ability to get a roll on. I think their confidence, despite their bluff, will have been dented and if the Wallaby forewards can hit them hard to begin with their self belief may falter
This is, of course, the danger for the Wallabies, having run hot then cold almost as part of their temperament. My hope is that the team is maturing and will demonstrate this.
I don’t think making outrageous predictions has much value. A game is only worth watching if the result is in doubt. There is no doubt Wales can win
But any Wallabies supporter worth his salt would back his team tonight !
I note in the past LAS, your track record in bailing out on your team. On the Roar you have an army of critics who will follow you.
June 16th 2012 @ 6:40am
Salada said | June 16th 2012 @ 6:40am | Report comment
Surprisingly negative feeling on Welsh forums about this game. Most of them still holding Priestland and Phillips to blame for the Brisbane loss and are doubtful they’ll improve in Melbourne. Quite some support for Hook at 10. But Priestland has to be Gatland’s call. Can’t imagine Howley going against G’s wishes. One thing everybody seems to know is that Phillips’ box kicks will be higher and shorter this time, and they’ll be very closley chased. Apparently, there was some serious thought in the Welsh camp of playing Warburton at 8. If they’d gone down that route, what do you think the effect would have been LAS, Ben, Werewolf, Miglia?
June 16th 2012 @ 7:29am
Original Ben S said | June 16th 2012 @ 7:29am | Report comment
Apparently Warburton used to play 8 at age group rugby, and if that’s true his rise to one of the best 7s is quite remarkable. Given how the first Test went I don’t think it would have been a bad choice with another 7 Tipuric getting the 7 jersey.
June 16th 2012 @ 6:55am
LeftArmSpinner said | June 16th 2012 @ 6:55am | Report comment
As Wayne Bennett says, don’t weaken one position to strengthen another position! Leave Warburton at 7 and, if 8 is a problem, give Delve a go. He won’t disappoint. He has been consistently the bet rebels player for two seasons. And he will see that selection and a chance to get back into the welsh team for the next four years now that he is heading back to Europe.
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June 16th 2012 @ 7:21am
Miglia said | June 16th 2012 @ 7:21am | Report comment
Clearly the Welsh figured that if anybody could nullify Pocock it’s Sam. He’ll be better with a test under his belt after not playing for so long so this one-one, captain-against-captain contest should be worth the price of admission alone. Who’ll win it? Depends on the kind of help each man gets from his supporting forwards.
June 16th 2012 @ 8:13am
LeftArmSpinner said | June 16th 2012 @ 8:13am | Report comment
And miglia, that is the beauty of this evenings game. Unlike the Ireland game and even the England game, the welsh game will be an enthralling contest.
June 16th 2012 @ 7:59am
Uncle Argyle said | June 16th 2012 @ 7:59am | Report comment
LAS,
I think the Welsh will be far more confrontational up front. They were a little flat in that department last week with the inclusion of Matt Ress and Alun Wyn-Jones I think they look to be more direct up front. Charteris is a good line-out forward but is not as abrasive as Wyn-Jones. Sam Warburton was off the pace a little and I am suprised Wales has not gone for two open sides in the same vein as Scotland did. It is clear that Warburton is not as fit as Pocock at this stage due to an 11 week lay off. I think he may need some support at the break down otherwise Pocock and Hooper will run riot at the break down. But the Welsh appear to have picked a power team so I expect them to be more direct.
I expect Mike Phillips to play more like another back row. He will not outclass Genia but he can play to his own strengths and be more direct with guys running off him. Rhys Priestland show look to get runners at Cooper Vuna as much as possible wesather it be land or air. The Wallabies covered reasonably well but Wales should work the short channel on his wing. Vuna is not a good defender and I expect Wales to keep asking the Vuna question.
I expect a more intense ‘test’ that will be a 19-18 that could go either way.
June 16th 2012 @ 8:10am
sixo_clock said | June 16th 2012 @ 8:10am | Report comment
Cheers, this is a much more circumspect article rather than your last. With the Wallabies it is always a close run thing because wrongly we put all our money on a few ‘stars’ to get the job done. This affects the team because seemingly without their luminence we don’t rate ourselves. Like that old Kiwi joke; “This boys is a team game… whatever you do make sure you get the ball to Jonah Lomu”.
We play better when there are no relief valves, we have to play Rugby, contest, limit, frustrate, anticipate, stop. In attack, support, look, support, rely, support. The KISS principle has to become a mantra, play within ourselves and wait for the chances and then hammer them as hard as possible. It is almost always the smarter team that wins, do our collective minds have what it takes?
For mine, I will definitely watch the AB game at the club, live, with their fans, hoping the Irish put up a fight. Then home to catch the Wallabies, recorded, the family at the movies, the dog kenneled for its own safety, so I can go outside and not have anything to hurt except my own toes and knuckles or relationship with the (idiot) neighbours.
The Red Dragon was remarkably flameless in the last, flat-footed in attack etc, were they playing the long game? Tonight will tell, if our lads have any sense they will try uppermost to avoid any penalties, primarily this requires quick thinking, composure. Our defence is reliable so secondly, value possession, do everything midfield to keep the ball in hand and wait for them to penalise themselves trying get it back. Any kicking must be done with the refs say-so, free yards are the reward for patience. March downfield and then try a few things so if we lose possession they are forced to kick and give it back. Simple, effective, smart Rugby. A bridge too far?
Will it be tradition, pride, history – or – chancers, gamblers, quick draw merchants? Too close to call.
June 16th 2012 @ 8:21am
LeftArmSpinner said | June 16th 2012 @ 8:21am | Report comment
Uncle, I agree and also expect the Welsh to confront the wallabies and test their commitment. This is a proven tactic against the recent Aust teams, from about 2002 onwards. Remember the 2007 world cup capitulation to England.
I believe that they were more than a little flat. They were average. Their physicality was not the stuff that grand slams are made of.
Congratulations on getting the idea of the article, i.e. that’s about predictions today and comparisons tomorrow.
19-18: in order to spice the article, I knew that I would have make a call on the winner. It’s a very difficult one. But the one point margin is my thinking also. I hope that there re more points scored, ideally from some great tries.
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June 16th 2012 @ 8:27am
Uncle Argyle said | June 16th 2012 @ 8:27am | Report comment
I really can’t pick it at the moment LAS, but I expect there to be some tries scored, some goals kicked but I think both will sides will be better for last weeks game that makes me think the half gaps might no longer be there. I think the defence will be tighter so I am not expecting as a higher scoring game as last week hence the 19-18 score line. I think i will go down to the wire.