Busting the myths around Australia’s hardworking (or not..) backrowers
Roar Guru On the popular TV show Mythbusters, popularly held beliefs are tested with experiments and data. There are three outcomes: Confirmed, plausible, and busted.
I will look at common myths in relation to backrowers using available stats for the Super Rugby season to date. Most stats are from Fox Fantasy statistics.
The stats have a common scale of per 80 mins to mimic a complete match, so you can compare players who played less minutes.
Dave Dennis, Wycliff Palu, Ben Mowen, Scott Higginbotham, Ben McCalman, David Pocock have been selected since various quarters push for their inclusion in the Wallaby squad.
Pocock is the only opensider as there has been no serious challenge to his starting position.
Backrowers – Myths
- Palu is lazy and has a low contribution / effort.
- Higginbotham has a low contribution rate.
- McCalman, Dennis and Mowen have high contribution rates.
- Dennis and Mowen are very close and either could be chosen.
- Palu and Higginbotham have a high impact.
- Mowen is underrated.
(Table 1 posted in first comment)
Myth: Palu has a low contribution rate? Busted. In fact Palu easily has the highest contribution rate.
For those who claims he only has this due to only playing 40 mins, he is averaging 65 mins per game, considering he DID only play 40 mins in his first few games and 80 mins in his later games this is also not true.
Myth: Higginbotham has a low contribution rate? Confirmed. He has the lowest contribution rate.
Myth: Dennis and Mowen have high contribution rates? Busted. In fact they are in the middle at best.
Myth: McCalman has a high contribution rate? Confirmed.
(Table 2 posted in first comment)
Myth: Palu has a high impact? Confirmed, easily the highest.
Myth: Higgs has a high impact?Confirmed (especially since he plays wider / looser).
(Table 3 posted in first comment)
Myth: Dennis and Mowen are very close and either could be chosen? Confirmed.
Myth: Mowen is underrated? Busted. His stats don’t indicate that he should be chosen over anyone else, and he was called into the squad as the next backrower.
The Crowd Says (12) | Page 1 of Comments
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June 28th 2012 @ 12:15pm
PeterK said | June 28th 2012 @ 12:15pm | Report comment
Player======tackles===runs===rucks===total effort====effort including lineout
Dennis=======9.92====8.67====6.64=====25.23=========27.50
Palu========11.30===14.61===10.04=====35.95=========37.32
Mowen======10.25====7.87====7.07=====25.19=========28.73
Higgs========9.83====6.35====5.63=====21.81=========24.85
Mccalman====9.89=====9.67====8.79=====28.35=========29.45
Pocock =====13.23=====9.31===8.69=====31.23==========31.23
Player=====tackle busts===offloads===linebreaks=== pilfers===pos impact
Dennis====== 1.17 ======== 0.55=======0.23========0.00=====1.95
Palu========3.31=========1.94=======0.57========0.23=====5.82
Mowen======0.80=========0.80=======0.09========0.27=====1.68
Higgs ======1.70==========0.72=======0.45========0.09=====2.86
Mccalman====2.64=========1.10=======0.22========0.00=====3.96
Pocock======1.38=========0.31=======0.15========1.08=====1.85
Player=====errors ====penalties===neg impact=====miss tackle %
Dennis===== 0.78=======0.55========1.33==========5.93
Palu=======1.14=======0.80=========1.94=========11.61
Mowen=====0.71=======0.88========1.59==========11.45
Higgs======0.80=======0.72========1.52==========11.29
Mccalman ===0.44====== 0.22========0.66===========8.16
Pocock=====0.38=======1.23========1.62===========6.52
June 28th 2012 @ 7:43pm
The Werewolf said | June 28th 2012 @ 7:43pm | Report comment
I did an analysis recently that showed Palu has been making over twice as many metres than any other backrower including Higginbotham this year per 80min of rugby.
Palu does this up the middle as well.
June 28th 2012 @ 10:07pm
PeterK said | June 28th 2012 @ 10:07pm | Report comment
that makes sense when you see Palu tops tackle busts and linebreaks so he would make a lot of metres as well.
Hardest working and most effective
June 29th 2012 @ 12:11am
The Werewolf said | June 29th 2012 @ 12:11am | Report comment
Without doubt he is the best metre gaining backrow we have plus he’s doing a great deall of work at the breakdown. A lot don’t notice this because too many write him off as lazy. It’s just untrue.
In this years super rugby to date, Palu’s average metres per 80min is a mammoth 75.7metres whereas Higgers averages 35.9 metres per 80mins.
June 29th 2012 @ 12:06pm
SkinnyKid said | June 29th 2012 @ 12:06pm | Report comment
speaking of backrowers, here’s a bloke I would have liked to have seen a lot more of….
Hugh McMeniman….gad that guy has some talent.
June 29th 2012 @ 12:13pm
Jutsie said | June 29th 2012 @ 12:13pm | Report comment
Shame he went to japan, apparently him and digby are really good mates and he was one of the driving forces behind digby considering moving to japan too.
June 29th 2012 @ 12:17pm
SkinnyKid said | June 29th 2012 @ 12:17pm | Report comment
I think Hughs decisions were based mostly on injury. He just has one of those bodies.
Mate have you ever spent time in Japan. I actually don’t blame them for considering/doing it. The lifestyle they lead over there is a dream.
June 29th 2012 @ 12:25pm
Jutsie said | June 29th 2012 @ 12:25pm | Report comment
Yeah don’t blame him, just a shame for the wallabies. We have been missing an aggressive no. 6 since finegan and possibly elsom version 1.
Yeah I think I recall him having a poor string of injuires. Digby was the same at the start of his career, every time he was on the verge of wallaby selection he’d do his shoulder.
June 29th 2012 @ 12:40pm
SkinnyKid said | June 29th 2012 @ 12:40pm | Report comment
Is Elsom perhaps the biggest waste of talent we have right now?
June 29th 2012 @ 1:07pm
Jutsie said | June 29th 2012 @ 1:07pm | Report comment
He reminds me of any ageing heavyweight boxer whose body has taken too many beatings but his ego refuses to hang the gloves up.
June 30th 2012 @ 4:59am
Damo said | June 30th 2012 @ 4:59am | Report comment
PK , I do not have the obsession, worthy that it is, that you have with forward stats. But I know that others on the roar do. I have to say I am astounded that your articles have attracted such little argument.
Of course the structure and context aspects of statistics could be improved but this type of ‘myth busting’ analysis could be applied to other positions on the field.
I repeat – where are all the front row and back row obsessed posters?
Busted?
June 30th 2012 @ 12:29pm
PeterK said | June 30th 2012 @ 12:29pm | Report comment
yes they dont like it when their long held cherished myths (perceptions) are found to be completely wrong, so they ignore it and hope it goes away.