Busting the myths around Australia’s hardworking (or not..) hookers
Roar Guru Related coverage
On the popular TV show Mythbusters, popularly held beliefs are tested with experiments and data. There are three outcomes: Confirmed, plausible, and busted.
I will look at common myths in relation to backrowers using available stats for the Super Rugby season to date. Most stats are from Fox Fantasy statistics.
The stats have a common scale of per 80 mins to mimic a complete match, so you can compare players who played less minutes.
Tatafu Polota-Nau (TPN), Stephen Moore, James Hanson, Nathan Charles have been selected since various quarters push for their inclusion in the Wallaby squad.
Myths about our hookers: (note I am not looking at scrummaging)
- TPN has a low contribution / effort.
- TPN has a high impact.
- TPN is the worst lineout thrower.
- Moore and Hanson contribute the most in general play.
- Hanson and Charles are underrated.
(Table 1 posted in first comment)
Myth: TPN has a low contribution rate? Busted! He does not have the highest rate but it would be in the middle ground.
Myth: Moore contribute most in general play (ie effort)? Confirmed. Easily the highest.
(Table 2 posted in first comment)
Myth: TPN has a high impact? Confirmed, easily the highest.
(Table 3 posted in first comment)
Myth: TPN is the poorest line out thrower? Busted. Out of every 100 throws he throws 2.2 more not straight than Moore.
Interestingly, Charles is by far the most accurate.
Myth: Hanson is underrated? Busted. He has neither the workrate of Moore nor the impact of TPN, and his throw is just as inaccurate.
Myth: Charles is underrated? Busted. Statistically he is weak in every area except lineout throws.
Editor’s note: PeterK has some nice data in tables, but it was very difficult and time-consuming to format for this article. PeterK will post the tables in the comments.
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June 28th 2012 @ 11:25am
PeterK said | June 28th 2012 @ 11:25am | Report comment
Player====Tackles===runs===rucks===total effort
Tpn=======7.65====5.99====3.51===17.16
Moore=====11.12===9.41===7.93===28.47
Hanson=====8.53===6.15===5.69===20.37
Charles=====5.99===3.72===3.08===12.79
Player=====tackle busts===offloads===linebreaks===pilfers===pos impact
Tpn========2.07==========1.03=====0.31======0.10======3.41
Moore======0.90==========0.82=====0.00======0.25======1.72
Hanson=====1.14==========0.11=====0.34======0.00======1.59
Charles=====0.49==========0.32=====0.08======0.00======0.89
Player errors penalties neg impact miss tackle % lineout not straight %
Tpn 0.31 0.21 0.52 17.78 8.75
Moore 0.41 0.57 0.98 11.69 6.54
Hanson 0.34 0.68 1.02 10.71 5.95
Charles 0.00 0.24 0.24 17.78 1.30
June 28th 2012 @ 11:35am
Jutsie said | June 28th 2012 @ 11:35am | Report comment
I cant fully understand the tables, is TPN not straight % 8.75 and Moore 6.54, wouldnt that mean TPN is in fact the worst thrower? or are the numbers the other way around because in the commentary u say that moore throws not straight 2.2% more often.
June 28th 2012 @ 11:39am
PeterK said | June 28th 2012 @ 11:39am | Report comment
I said TPN throws 2.2% not straight than Moore. But this amount of variation is not statistically that meaningful ie it is close enough to be considered the same.
Yes by strict numbers he is the worst, but all you need is 1 throw by Moore to go wrong and it changes, that is how close it is.
June 28th 2012 @ 11:42am
Jutsie said | June 28th 2012 @ 11:42am | Report comment
Oh cool yeah I didnt read it properly the first time.
June 28th 2012 @ 11:36am
PeterK said | June 28th 2012 @ 11:36am | Report comment
Player==errors====penalties===neg impact====miss tackle %====lineout not straight %
Tpn=====0.31=====0.21======0.52==========17.78========== 8.75
Moore===0.41===== 0.57====== 0.98========= 11.69========== 6.54
Hanson== 0.34==== 0.68====== 1.02==========10.71========== 5.95
Charles===0.00==== 0.24====== 0.24========= 17.78========== 1.30
June 28th 2012 @ 11:41am
Jutsie said | June 28th 2012 @ 11:41am | Report comment
By the way nice work, confirms what most people think its a toss of a coin between moore and TPN but its daylight after them. I always though hanson actually had a large impact/high rate but was too small. The stats around him are surprising.
IMO i thought ben whitaker was a better hooker than charles at the force but he has been injured this season.