Super Rugby crunch round preview
Roar Guru By KiwiDave, 5 Jul 2012 KiwiDave is a Roar Guru
- Tagged:
- ACT Brumbies, Queensland Reds, Rugby Union, Super Rugby
Related coverage
Although there is another week of Super Rugby to come after this round, this is the week where everything will be sorted for the finals.
Every game this round shapes as a hotly contested encounter, at both ends of the table.
At the top of the ladder, finals contenders are squaring off against each other to determine who will be there at the business end of the season. Teams at the bottom of the ladder are also facing off this week, in an attempt to avoid the dreaded wooden spoon.
The round starts off with an absolute ripper as the Chiefs host the Crusaders. A bit of gloss has gone off this game as it was shaping as a match to decide the New Zealand conference. Thanks to the Hurricanes, the Chiefs now have that sealed.
With the conference wrapped up, the big question is will the intensity be there for the Chiefs?
A win by the Chiefs will guarantee a top two spot and almost lock top spot down so it is not like they have nothing to play for. A home semi and final would be a huge advantage for the boys in red, yellow and black.
For the Crusaders, a loss could see them drop out the top six, so they too have plenty to play for.
Injuries I feel may haunt the Crusaders again, with Carter likely to miss the match. With home ground advantage to the Chiefs, I am tipping the home side to notch a win in a close encounter by five points.
Reds vs Highlanders is next and this is a must win for both sides. The Highlanders now have to win this game and hope results go their way in other matches to qualify for the top six.
They should throw everything at the Reds in this game. But with home ground advantage and a finals spot on the line, the Reds should lift and get home by six points.
The Sharks and Bulls square off in a rare Friday night game for South Africa. This game is a must win for the Sharks as they look to get their season flowing again after a shock loss to the Lions before the break.
Just five points separate them and the Bulls on the ladder and a big four try win could see them displace the Bulls. The Sharks will be fresh and the Bulls will be on a six day backup, which makes this a tough one to call.
In light of this, I am going to go for the home side, the Sharks, to notch a two point win and keep their season on track.
Saturday kicks off with the Blues vs Force. It’s been a horror year for both sides and the Blues will be looking to salvage something.
The Force has lost Pocock for this game and with the home ground advantage I expect the Blues to notch a decent win here and leapfrog the Force on the ladder. I think the Blues will win by 15 points.
Next up sees the Waratahs vs Brumbies. An extremely rare event will happen this game: the whole state of Queensland will be cheering for a NSW win to allow the Reds to qualify.
With just five points splitting them, the Reds will be hoping for an 8+ point NSW win. Stranger things have happened but I can’t see the Brumbies getting rolled here, unless a whistle happy ref turns it into a kick fest and the Brumbies have to rely on their god awful place kicker.
For me the Brumbies are going along nicely. They are expertly coached and full of confidence. NSW will put up a decent fight but I expect the Brumbies to win this by six points and almost lock the Australian conference.
Cheetahs vs Stormers is a lot harder to tip than people think. The Stormers have been awful in their last four or five games yet they still manage to find a way to win.
Last week the Lions beat them up for a considerable period of the game and just as it was looking like they would go 17-13 late in that contest they turned the ball over and the Stormers took advantage.
After watching the Stormers home fixture against the Cheetahs where they scraped home 16-14, I am tipping the Cheetahs to get the job done on them here.
That day the Cheetahs smashed the Stormers in set pieces, like the Lions, Bulls and Sharks have. Their brick wall defence saved them, as did poor selections from the Cheetahs.
They turned down four kickable penalties in that game to unsuccessfully try for seven pointers. If they chose to kick just one of them they would have rolled the Stormers.
After making a poor start against the Bulls, the Cheetahs finished with a rush. If they take that momentum into their next game they might record the upset of the round. I pick the Cheetahs by three points
Lions vs Rebels are the final game of the round, and with James O’Connor and Kurtley Beale gone, the Lions should notch a victory here. They were brave and unlucky against the Stormers and superb against the Sharks before that. If they play to their recent form they should notch a nice win here. Lions to win by 10 points.
The finals picture will be very clear after this round. This is shaping as the best round of the season and it is one I am really looking forward to.
Sport, all day long. Does this sound too good to be true? We're searching for a Group Sales Manager to lead our team in Sydney. If you're a sales star who doesn't mind a hit, kick, throw, or cycle, we want to hear from you. Apply now.
Have you seen the new Wallabies jersey? Want one of your own? We're giving away a brand new 2013 Wallabies jersey to one lucky Roarer, click here to go in the running to win.
The Crowd Says (42) | Page 1 of Comments
Have Your Say
- Explore:
- ACT Brumbies, Queensland Reds, Rugby Union, Super Rugby
July 5th 2012 @ 8:10am
mania said | July 5th 2012 @ 8:10am | Report comment
saders have dagg, read and carter back apparently. the intensity of this game will be stratospheric.
i need to bullsand reds to lose to let my canes in
July 5th 2012 @ 8:27am
Riccardo said | July 5th 2012 @ 8:27am | Report comment
So who you picking Mania? Saders or Chiefs?
Given their experience and desparation along with the return of those you have already mentioned I’m going with the Saders.
Either way it should be enthralling football.
July 5th 2012 @ 8:47am
KiwiDave said | July 5th 2012 @ 8:47am | Report comment
Wrote that before reading Carter was back. The Super XV site had Blackadder saying he wouldn’t play. Not sure he will be 100% because this game has now become a must win type contest for them. In prior years the Saders have killed the Chiefs up forward but this year we have a pack that can hold its own. Should be a belter
July 5th 2012 @ 8:30am
mania said | July 5th 2012 @ 8:30am | Report comment
ric – my heart goes with the chiefs, my gut however says the saders. i’m conflicted here. class of the saders vs the form of the chiefs. but i agree, either way this is going to be a humdinger of a game.
July 5th 2012 @ 8:32am
Red Kev said | July 5th 2012 @ 8:32am | Report comment
The Brumbies need to be careful – I think the Waratahs (and the Blues next week) could well spoil their party. Coming off the break for internationals and the bye last week – they could come out and turn in genuine nothing to lose performances.
With Carter back the Chiefs-Crusaders game looks even tighter but I am still tipping the Chiefs.
I also think the Highlanders will throw everything at the Reds seeing as they have a bye in the final round, but I am hoping fortress Suncorp gets my boys over the line.
I feel for the Hurricanes too – with a bye this week all they can do is sit and watch results and then work out what needs to happen for them to qualify next week – must be tough with so much out of their hands.
July 5th 2012 @ 8:53am
KiwiDave said | July 5th 2012 @ 8:53am | Report comment
The Blues could be a big danger game if they get a few players back and have guys like Weepu and Nonu turning it on for the selectors (given it will be their last game before the RC)
July 5th 2012 @ 9:00am
Riccardo said | July 5th 2012 @ 9:00am | Report comment
Kevin,
I too think the Tahs may get up on the back of Barnes’ return to form and the return of Mitchell. Given their successful record against the Brumbies and home advantage I’ve already picked the Tahs. (I’m a Blues supporter over here mate so I wouldn’t read too much into that!).
Even with home advantage the return of the Read, Carter and Dagg combined with their year in-year out cauldron experience should see the Crusaders scrape home IMHO. Some mouthwatering match ups tho. Carter v Cruden & Cane v McCaw worth the price of admission alone.
Reds v Highlanders should also be a cracker. Both teams desperate. Young Smith v Genia. But the Reds at home with Quade hopefully contributing for 60 minutes minimum should see them scrape home too.
While you guys may have some sympathy for the Canes I think the fact they have got as far as they have is such a tight competition when they were all but written off pre-season is an achievement in itself. Hammett deserves plaudits for his courage. The brand of football they play is exciting. That they have supplied All Blacks like Savea, Smith, Jane and Vito only reinforces their standing as a genuine threat. Can’t wait to see Andre Taylor playing for the Blackness..
July 5th 2012 @ 9:39am
mania said | July 5th 2012 @ 9:39am | Report comment
riccardo – its funny what hammett has achieved with the canes. basically nothing.
have to give him kudo’s from recovering from last years debacle and putting together a great team but this is familiar territorywith the canes. play offs approaching and canes scrambling to make it through.
sometimes i wonder how much better we would’ve done had we held onto hore, piri and nonu. halfback would still be perenara starting but piri is so much better HB than back up chrisEaton. nonu would stroll back into 12 and hore, well hore contributes to every team he plays for regardless of how they’re playing.
definate big ups to hammett but i kind of wonder had he better man management skills and kept his trouble makers and learnt how to get them to perform then how much better off we might be?
July 5th 2012 @ 10:12am
Riccardo said | July 5th 2012 @ 10:12am | Report comment
Your argument has merit as always Mania.
Whatever the behavioural or discipline issues at the Canes last year the fact that Hammett has cleaned house and not only made a successful roster but fashioned them into such a potent unit deserves applause. The way they played against the Rebels in particular was breath-taking.
While it is probably true that Hammett needs to address his man-management skills the Canes defence remains leaky and some investment in this area will see them continue to contend.
While we’re on it I think Conrad as captain was inspirational. He has had a superb season and is now easily recognisable as the best O/C in rugby.
July 5th 2012 @ 10:24am
mania said | July 5th 2012 @ 10:24am | Report comment
thanx riccardo – dont get me wrong i think hammett is an excellent coach, but like the players he has flaws and like a player if he addresses these flaws it will make him a better coach. in particular his man management skills. nonu and piri i can understand as i’ve heard these two are terrible at training left to their own devices, but hore? never heard any coach or team mates complain about hore at training.
the way canes played vs the rebels was awesome. the way they played vs the cheetahs was typical old school canes and a much needed reality check.
exciting expansive running rugby – yep done that since the inception of super rugby
top try scorers in the comp, been there done that.
just saying that even though hammetts done an awesome job he had to take a big step back before he took steps forward to get to the place where canes have been on numberous occasions.
i will say that what hammett did had to be done. like i said nonu and piri are bad influences and had an immature approach to training. definately not what the rookies need to see. also hammett’s unearthed a whole bunch of quality young players. not only are these rookies excellent but they’re excellent AB’s material.
hammett gets my vote.
July 5th 2012 @ 10:49am
Riccardo said | July 5th 2012 @ 10:49am | Report comment
Yeah the Hore question is a head scratcher.
The only thing I’ve seen reported is that he likes to have a grog or 2.
More potentially outstanding AB’s to come my friend. Imagine the Blackness in a year or so with Smih and Perenara interchanging from the bench. As we’ve discussed before Taylor has the mark of Cullen about him and could be great.
Happy times in the Capital, methinks.
July 5th 2012 @ 10:54am
mania said | July 5th 2012 @ 10:54am | Report comment
riccardo – the only thing i can think off regarding hore is that when they were both playing hore smacked hammett in the mouth. was a good shot and hammett had no comeback…or defence.
cant wait for perenara to make the AB’s. gonna be a tussle for HB like the old days when there was marshall and kelleher or as epic as rickyStuart and alfieLange. or kenny and strerlo
whether the canes make it or not i’ve enjoyed their season so far. as always they may not be the best but they look the best. the tries scored this season have been great.
July 5th 2012 @ 2:59pm
Kuruki said | July 5th 2012 @ 2:59pm | Report comment
Hore was way too relaxed about the way he approached things. He was a bad influence on the younger crop coming through as he was an All Black and a senior member of the side. Nobody can accuse him of not delivering when it mattered, but obviously Hammet wanted a more professional approach from his senior players, and what Coach wants, he gets.
July 5th 2012 @ 10:28am
Markus said | July 5th 2012 @ 10:28am | Report comment
‘sometimes i wonder how much better we would’ve done had we held onto hore, piri and nonu’
Hore definitely, but I think for an idea of how they would be faring if they retained Weepu and Nonu you are better off looking toward the Blues than to the Chiefs.
Both are absolutely talented players, no doubt, but that is two teams in two seasons whose inclusion of these two has coincided with record-low final standings.
That cannot be simply written off as poor man management on Hammett’s part.
July 5th 2012 @ 10:34am
mania said | July 5th 2012 @ 10:34am | Report comment
cmon markus – blues is not piri and nonu’s fault. they only turned up this year and cracks have been appearing long before their advent.
and imho despite playing in the blues nonu and piri have been playing pretty well. other than rudiWulf, piri and nonu have consistently been the few in that team who have been playing and contributing positively every game.
July 5th 2012 @ 11:06am
Riccardo said | July 5th 2012 @ 11:06am | Report comment
Harsh Markus.
I’m with Mania here and I’ve been supporting the Blues for well over a decade.
Nonu, in particular, has looked good in a team going nowhere.
The poor man-management tag you refer to can just as easily be applied to poor Pat altho IMO the entitlement culture and nepotism rife in the Blues hirearchy is at the root of recent evils at this franchise. It has taken me some time to admit this and I’m still in therapy but there you go.
Combine this with a lack of depth exposed by the worst injured roster in the tournament and you have a recipe for disaster which, unhappily, the Blues have delivered.
July 5th 2012 @ 12:31pm
Jarmen said | July 5th 2012 @ 12:31pm | Report comment
Watch it Ric you’ll have the likes of Denby chastizing you for evening daring to suggest the Blues had a horrendous injury list in 2012
July 5th 2012 @ 11:12am
mania said | July 5th 2012 @ 11:12am | Report comment
yeah riccardo – the way the blues capitulated in the semi’s last year to the reds told me something was seriously wrong there. the way they played was not even remotely like they were in the round robins. thats when i figured something wasnt as rosy as the public were led to believe.
i’ve been impressed with nonu. despite knowing he’s in a losing battle he’s always taking it to the line , trying to break tackles and putting in the hits. loved the way he silenced digby when digby was playing as a centre. digby got pancaked twice then disapeared for the rest of the game.
piri as well is trying to engage the backs and forwards on attack but is left hanging. and looking like a dk when he’s got no runners running off him
July 5th 2012 @ 11:34am
Tumble Hill said | July 5th 2012 @ 11:34am | Report comment
Mania – Im a Big Canes fan and have been totally amazed at the turnaround by them this year. The new approach they have taken and the discipline they have shown this year has been awesome.
Conrad Smith has had a huge amount of influence on this team and im guessing all the players have the highest respect for him. Being Captian this year his game has come on even further. I would even call him one of the top players in the world and deffinatly the best center. Hore, Nonu and Weepu have always been great players but I dont think they were the true leaders Hammet was looking for. It was obvious they didnt want change and especially from a new boy up from Canterbury. He made the right decision by letting them go and now we are seeing the results of a Hurricanes team finally playing to their potential! Even if they loose to the Chiefs next week, this season has been a total sucess in my opinion.
July 5th 2012 @ 11:56am
mania said | July 5th 2012 @ 11:56am | Report comment
tots agree Tumble Hill
July 5th 2012 @ 12:35pm
Jarmen said | July 5th 2012 @ 12:35pm | Report comment
I have a friend in media here in Auckland and one of the reasons “supposedly” for the seeming lack of cohesion amonhst the team is that Lam and a few senior players were quite pushy with religion and it has not gone down to well with many of the players.
There is a us and them mentality amidst the team itself.
If true this is quite disappointing but hey different strokes for different folks right?
July 5th 2012 @ 2:56pm
Kuruki said | July 5th 2012 @ 2:56pm | Report comment
Mania. If Nonu Hore and Weepu had stayed at the canes they would have continued to be perennial underachievers. This year nobody can accuse them of that as they are punching well above their weight. it was all about the attitude and the bad influence Hore and Nonu had on the younger players. Drinking during the week, playing the fool at training. When Hammet came in and tried to change the culture of the team he was met with resistance from some of the senior players. He made a massive call to shake up the ship. Hore and Nonu given the marching orders, some of their mates followed. Eaton was given an ultimatum, and boy did it work. An attitude adjustment was all he needed. When i look at the Hurricanes side i see a real title threat in another few years, if they can keep those young players together. The front row will develop massively in the next few years. That backline will be lethal. Those loose forwards are developing as a unit, and will be even stronger next year.
You say he needed better man management skills, i say he managed to sort out the problem makers pretty effectively. Do the Hurricanes miss Nonu Weepu and Hore? Not a chance in hell. They just need another year or so for those young props to come on and they are the real deal. Sometimes attitude and a good culture is more important then what an individual or individuals can bring to the team. Look at the Chiefs. They are full of life and you cannot tell me SBW Cruden and co are the reason Taumalolo, Craig Clarke, Tanerau Latimer, Liam Messam and others are plying some of the best rugby they have ever played.
July 5th 2012 @ 8:51am
KiwiDave said | July 5th 2012 @ 8:51am | Report comment
Seems the whole Stormers side has been down with the flu with Aplon and Habana sent home because they were so bad. Could see a Stormers side running at 80% this weekend. Would love to see the Stormers lose this week as it will put the Chiefs squarely in the box seat to take top spot, even with a loss to the Crusaders
July 5th 2012 @ 9:12am
moaman said | July 5th 2012 @ 9:12am | Report comment
Could it be that Suzy was lurking around the Stormers camp and it wasn’t ‘flu atall?
There have been so many weekends during this Super season that mouth-watering matchups have occurred-and this one is right up there.I’m hoping the Chiefs can keep the foot on the throat and seal a home final;far from confident though.Sharks-Bulls should be brutal,Brumbies,Highlanders & Reds -they all have so much to play for! To top off this plethora of top rugby.there’s the cricket too……
July 5th 2012 @ 4:58pm
Suzy Poison said | July 5th 2012 @ 4:58pm | Report comment
After my 1995 WC Final success, I retired to live in Bondi, Moaman. You might have heard of a friend of mine, John the Bookmaker, well that 95 windfall set me up nicely. John of course was mates with some past cricketers like Hanzie Cronje and Warney. Although Warney always protested it was only ever pitch conditions and weather.
July 6th 2012 @ 6:50am
moaman said | July 6th 2012 @ 6:50am | Report comment
Suzy! Guess you have a decent alibi then eh?
July 5th 2012 @ 5:58pm
Gerrard said | July 5th 2012 @ 5:58pm | Report comment
This must be your pet hate team HEY!!!
July 5th 2012 @ 9:15am
Jutsie said | July 5th 2012 @ 9:15am | Report comment
Gill out for the reds is a big loss could sway the breakdown battle the highlanders way.
July 5th 2012 @ 12:17pm
Tumble Hill said | July 5th 2012 @ 12:17pm | Report comment
Out of curiosity who here plays Virtual Rugby? either on Sky sports or Jimungo?
July 5th 2012 @ 12:49pm
Riccardo said | July 5th 2012 @ 12:49pm | Report comment
I do on Sky TH.
Blues killed me early on though so I’m not sure I’m much assistance
July 5th 2012 @ 1:20pm
Tumble Hill said | July 5th 2012 @ 1:20pm | Report comment
Me aswell Riccardo although as a bogey pick this week im going to pick them 13+.
Sitting around the 850 mark at the moment. Id like to break into the top 500 but its looking less likely by the week haha
July 5th 2012 @ 1:46pm
Riccardo said | July 5th 2012 @ 1:46pm | Report comment
I have the same pick this week too TH. SNAP!
After they let us down again this week we can commiserate…
July 5th 2012 @ 1:56pm
Tumble Hill said | July 5th 2012 @ 1:56pm | Report comment
We can live in hope…
July 5th 2012 @ 1:47pm
Jarmen said | July 5th 2012 @ 1:47pm | Report comment
I play both
July 5th 2012 @ 12:23pm
Suzy Poison said | July 5th 2012 @ 12:23pm | Report comment
Pretty good synopsis, but I am going to agree to disagree with you on some predictions, KiwiDave.
I can’t make up my mind about the Saders-Chiefs game. This is tough tough game that really could go either way. As an Outsider, I think possibly the Crusaders will have more desperation, after the Canes loss. So I am leaning toward the Crusaders edging the Chiefs, possibly by a drop gaol from Carter in the final 10 minutes. He has been practising them lately.
Agree, Reds will beat the Highlanders, but I don’t see them scoring four tries to get a bonus point. So this will leave the Canes in Sixth spot. (for now) As Jutsie pointed out Gill is a big loss.
Agree about Blues beating Force.
Agree, the Brumbies will beat The Tahs, but this game will be very tight too.
Disagree, about Stormers losing to Cheetahs, but then I am a Stormers fan. Folks keep writing the Stormers off, saying they should have lost, or they can’t score tries etc, but still they keep winning. They have three players back this weekend, Elstad, Habana and Joe Pietersen. Word from Cape Town, is all are Flu –free, and 100%. The Cheetahs were a lot more dangerous earlier in the year when Goosen was still playing. Since then, they are not the same team.
Agree, about the Lions beating the Rebels.
Sharks versus Bulls is a tough call. The Sharks have lost Alberts and Lambie, on the plus side they have Frans Steyn back and playing for them. I have to disagree with you, on this one, but I have changed my mind a few times. I think a Morne Steyn penalty will decide the outcome, the Bulls winning by three.
July 5th 2012 @ 12:43pm
KiwiDave said | July 5th 2012 @ 12:43pm | Report comment
I think this will be a great round for tipping either side under 7.5
Chiefs-Crusaders either side under 7.5
into
Reds-Highlanders either side under 7.5
into
Sharks-Bulls either side under 7.5
into
Waratahs-Brumbies either side under 7.5
into
Cheetahs-Stormers either side under 7.5
Odds of 60.67 with Centrebet. Might be worth a lazy $20 for a possible $1,213 collect
July 5th 2012 @ 12:43pm
Red Kev said | July 5th 2012 @ 12:43pm | Report comment
Chiefs, Reds, Tahs, Stormers, Lions … I did have the Sharks pencilled in but without Lambie I’m swinging back to the Bulls.
The Reds games worries me to be honest.
No Gill, Robinson is already carrying an ankle injury, Quirk is out with a shoulder reconstruction … that depletes their breakdown presence against the best breakdown team in the competition in the Highlanders.
No Ioane either. I hope Cooper is up to controlling this game.
July 5th 2012 @ 1:45pm
Jutsie said | July 5th 2012 @ 1:45pm | Report comment
alberts is also out for the sharks im def going to pick bulls now.
Hopefully the rest of the reds pack are switched on and don’t get bullied at the breakdown.
Interesting to see how tapuai goes coming of the bench, with JOC out of the first bledisloe hopefully taps can get a bit of form and be a late bolter for the wallaby squad.
July 5th 2012 @ 4:30pm
KiwiDave said | July 5th 2012 @ 4:30pm | Report comment
Cooper limped off last week so his match fitness will be questioned. Will laugh if the Highlanders win by 8+ and score 4 tries. Will really put the cat among the pigeons.
July 5th 2012 @ 5:07pm
Suzy Poison said | July 5th 2012 @ 5:07pm | Report comment
I still see the Reds getting up at home, but not with the bonus point. I was backing the Sharks in Durbs, but the Bulls looked good against the Cheetahs, and Alberts and Lambie are injured, so I have swung back to the Bulls. I think the Reds will still sit at 7th after this round, as the Canes will get 4 points for the bye. But with the Sharks losing, there will be a better position.
However, next weekend, I predict the Reds will most probably move into the top six, as I can’t see the Canes beating the Chiefs.
July 5th 2012 @ 5:13pm
biltongbek said | July 5th 2012 @ 5:13pm | Report comment
Looking at the Crusaders vs Chiefs, the Crusaders last weekend had all the territory, possession, ruled most of the stats but the hurricanes even though they were recieivng a hiding in the set phases still managed to stay in touch with them, sneaking the win in the end.
One thing the Hurricanes did do well though was defence, it was aggressive in your face and the Crusaders weren’t able to build their usual momentum and rythm.
In my view the Chiefs are better in every department than the Hurricanes bar Andre Taylor who has simply been phenominal this season.
So in my view, if the Chiefs maintains that physicality and their numbers and intenisty at the breakdown, the Crusaders will struggle.
The Bulls vs sharks match is crucial for both teams, I don’t think the sharks has what it takes to win the tournamnet, they are prone to silly errors and moments or even halves of low intensity. They haven’t yet put 80 minutes together. The Bulls although limited in their gameplan knows how to win finals, so perhaps from a South African perspective it is more important that the Bulls win than having a possible 3 teams make it.
The Stormers are surviving on fumes, fortunately for them, their last few matches have been agaonst teams who couldn’t call on 80 minutes of killer rugby. The Stormers may well win this weekend, but I don’t think they have much left in the tank.
July 5th 2012 @ 6:03pm
Gerrard said | July 5th 2012 @ 6:03pm | Report comment
Have FAITH bro.
Been a WP supporter since 1975 and have never doubted or changed sides.
Cheers