Patty Mills ceiling is higher than expected
By Ryan O'Connell, 10 Aug 2012 Ryan O'Connell is a Roar Expert
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- Basketball, Boomers, London 2012 Olympics, Patty Mills
Australian guard Patrick Mills celebrates at the end of the Men's Basketball Preliminary Round match as part of the London 2012 Olympic Games at the Basketball Arena on August 6, 2012 in London, England. Australia won 82-80. AFP PHOTO / MARK RALSTON
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When Australian basketballer Patty Mills was playing well at St Mary’s college in California, there was serious momentum behind the notion that he may even be fortunate enough to sneak into the NBA.
As history will now show, Mills was drafted with the 55th pick of the 2009 NBA draft by the Portland Trailblazers. He had made it to The Big Show, where few Australians before him had been lucky enough to venture.
Considering the fairly short list of Australians that were able to earn a spot in the best basketball league in the world, the ascension of Mills from the collegian ranks to professional basketball in America was rightfully considered a remarkable feat.
However, the expectations on Mills’ actual contributions on the court were not overly high. Mills was looked upon as merely a bench-warming reserve, who could occasionally be called upon to change the tempo of a game with his hustle and speed.
But now, after two Olympic campaigns and two seasons in the NBA – the second with the San Antonio Spurs – it’s quite evident that Mills’ potential is much greater than expected.
Whilst his amazing speed has been what was expected, his use of it has surprised many. He has the ability to not just race up and down the court, but also to get to positions on the floor that enable him to make plays, like penetrating into the paint.
Don’t get me wrong, he’s still truly a sight to behold in transition, regularly racing past opponents on his way to the ring, but his effective use of speed in the halfcourt has been better than anticipated.
A large reason for that has been the fact he has a textbook stroke on his jumpshot, making him a deadly perimeter shooter. It was first thought that his shot was just good enough to keep defences honest, but he’s actually a serious threat from outside.
Combined with his quickness, it makes him a very difficult assignment for defensive players.
As far an intangibles go, he has a level head, plays with passion, is willing to learn and likes the pressure of taking the big, important shot. This last point was best illustrated by his clutch, ice cold three pointer versus Russia that won the game on the buzzer for the Boomers.
Altogether, it’s a package that makes Mills a very interesting and appealing player. Suddenly, his ceiling has been raised from 12th man bench-warmer to potentially an ideal third guard in the rotation.
Like all players, Mills will need to keep working, and keep improving.
At the moment, he does have a tendency to force the odd questionable shot. Likewise, when he penetrates, he sometimes seems to be driving with the intent of only getting his own shot off. The good point guards penetrate in order to set up their teammates.
Mills is far from a ballhog, but his shot selection does need work.
Mills is also aggressive, and really tests the defence. It’s a great quality but he needs to understand that being aggressive doesn’t necessarily equal taking the shot. You can be aggressive whilst setting up your teammates.
Likewise, in transition, Mills needs to learn the importance of second phase execution: hitting trailers or rewarding big men that run the floor. Or failing those options, simply recognising the opportunity for fast break points has gone, and therefore pulling the ball out and running half court offense.
It’s these little intricacies of point guard play that Mills needs to become skilled at and then apply in-game.
However, that’s some fairly harsh nitpicking on my behalf. Mills is still just 23 years of age, he’s willing to learn, and his upside vastly outweighs any current minor negatives.
All things considered, the ceiling for Patty Mills is much higher than expected.
Ryan is an ex-representative basketballer who shot too much, and a (very) medium pace bowler. He's been with The Roar as an expert since February 2011, has written for the Seven Network and NBA Down Under, and been a regular on ABC radio. Ryan tweets from @RyanOak.
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August 10th 2012 @ 2:20am
Johnno said | August 10th 2012 @ 2:20am | Report comment
-Pat Mills played well and showed all he benefits of playing in the NBA incidentally at the same club Bob Brown is one of the coaches at the san antonio spurs. He knows all those team USA players. Joe Ingles is impressive but now Europe money can be just as good so may stay in Eurobasket.
-But for me this Olympics the biggest talk is about under-23 like the the soccer model and basketball going to a world cup which it is trialling in 2014 in Spain. 24 teams.
-12 teams not good, . Greece,Italy,Serbia,croatia,turkey,germany, Canada,,New Zealand, all should of been there. Especially the europe teams much better than Nigeria and Tunisia.
-More olympic teams and more europe teams must be allocated spots and USA and Europe are the homes of basketball.
-Aussie boomers played well and this will raise the profile and good launching pad for NBL season. Grassroots basketball is doing well in OZ, and playing team USA is great for the sport. Good tv ratings too. Just wish bogut was there, as we still would of lost but Team USA had no dwight howard, so bogut would of controlled the paint and got more rebounds for the boomers.
-And Le Bron is the undisputed no 1 player right now, he is in his prime. He reminds me more of a magic johnson, oscar robertson, robert rose player than an out and out shooter like MJ and Kobe. And his 1st USA basketball triple double ever in the teams history confirmed that.
August 10th 2012 @ 11:18am
Ryan O'Connell said | August 10th 2012 @ 11:18am | Report comment
Johnno, I think you’ll find it would be pretty hard to include more than 12 teams. the basketball tournament already runs the length of the Games, so I’m not sure they would be able to fit any more games in.
August 10th 2012 @ 12:52pm
B-Rock said | August 10th 2012 @ 12:52pm | Report comment
Johnno is talking about the Basketball world cup (similar to football and rugby) – totally seperate to the olympics. I assume this will replace the FIBA world champs which are not as popular. Not sure what the differences will be…
I have heard that only the US is looking to go under 23 at future olympics (which the players are against) while other countries stick to the current format
August 10th 2012 @ 1:07pm
Whites said | August 10th 2012 @ 1:07pm | Report comment
It all depends on the structure of the tournament. Currently it’s 5 pool games then quarters, semis and final. 16 teams with 4 pools of 4 would reduce the number of games a team could play from 8 to 6.
The main sticking point with regards to more teams is the IOC cap on the number of Athletes at the olympics. More teams means more athletes and a reduction in Athletes somewhere else in the olympics.
August 10th 2012 @ 3:00am
JVGO said | August 10th 2012 @ 3:00am | Report comment
Mills is still more of a scorer than a floor general. I wish he would improve his passing and game management. Patty is good but these kids will be better.
August 10th 2012 @ 3:08am
Johnno said | August 10th 2012 @ 3:08am | Report comment
great highlights JVGO I wish there was youtube, and internet and all these junior torunmants when i was growing up marketed to the same levels as today great stuff.
August 10th 2012 @ 3:34am
JVGO said | August 10th 2012 @ 3:34am | Report comment
If you look over at the side of the youtube for that clip there is the entire QF between Aus and Argentina at theU17 WC’s. It’s worth a look sometime. Some of those kids are sensational.
August 10th 2012 @ 11:19am
Ryan O'Connell said | August 10th 2012 @ 11:19am | Report comment
The two kids involved in that play are called Exum and Simmons. Have to be Cecil and Dave’s boys, no?
August 10th 2012 @ 1:00pm
JVGO said | August 10th 2012 @ 1:00pm | Report comment
Yep. Bruce Boldens boy Jonah is also pretty good, plays for NSW. The Simmons kid is only fifteen. Melvin Yhomas’s boys are good as well.
August 10th 2012 @ 2:54pm
Ryan O'Connell said | August 10th 2012 @ 2:54pm | Report comment
Some good talent coming through the ranks then.
August 10th 2012 @ 2:59pm
JVGO said | August 10th 2012 @ 2:59pm | Report comment
Don’t get me wrong. There are plenty of great young kids without famous fathers too. But Exum in particular is elite. 6’4″ point guard with that sort of atheticism and smarts. at 16 years old Wow.
August 10th 2012 @ 7:21am
katzilla said | August 10th 2012 @ 7:21am | Report comment
Dellavedova and Ingles both penetrated the paint pretty easily against this superstar team, Dellavedova’s distribution was sublime, he pulled off some great passes.
Looking at that USA team yesterday and how they were pretty poor defensively in their own paint, it’s easy now to say that original Dream Team would have blown them off the court.
The thought of Ewing and Barkley in the low post would give Chandler nightmares. Although Bosh and Howard would have probably made a difference there.
Mills has only improved his chances of a call up for more game time, Tony Parker certainly thinks so.
August 10th 2012 @ 11:20am
Ryan O'Connell said | August 10th 2012 @ 11:20am | Report comment
Dellavedova really impressed me. I wasn’t sold on him early in the Games, but he showed off his talents in the last 4 games. He’s a really good player.
August 10th 2012 @ 10:02am
B.A Sports said | August 10th 2012 @ 10:02am | Report comment
I love Patty Mills as much as the next Aussie and agree with most of the points in Ryan’s article.
I think when Patty was drafted, it would have been as nothing more than a role player, with his upside being that if it all came together he might get a gig at some point in his career as a sixth man in a smaller market team. As much as i love Patty, i struggle to see him ever getting to that upside but can still see him having a decent NBA career.
Someone mentioned Ingles above. He has had a pretty ok tournament but he played 40 minutes against the US the other night and got off just 8 shots. If he had finished the night with double digit assists or rebounds, ok, but I don’t think he did. You got to be getting more open or be driving harder
August 10th 2012 @ 11:24am
Ryan O'Connell said | August 10th 2012 @ 11:24am | Report comment
B.A., you’re being a bit harsh on Ingles aren’t you? 19 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists and 1 steal versus Team USA? That’s a pretty good game! He also had to defend LeBron for most of the game.
August 10th 2012 @ 11:00am
rsingi said | August 10th 2012 @ 11:00am | Report comment
I agree Mills had a great tournament. Will he get much court time behind Parker Ginobli Green etc. He may need to move to another team.
Ingles will be looked at closely also. I was disappointed Crawfor and Gibson saw 0 minutes vs the USA especially since the staters were tiring badly.
August 10th 2012 @ 2:53pm
Ryan O'Connell said | August 10th 2012 @ 2:53pm | Report comment
I think Gibson and Crawford were lucky to make the team!
August 10th 2012 @ 11:02am
Franko said | August 10th 2012 @ 11:02am | Report comment
Saw a lot of Australia’s Olympic campaign.
Mills needs to cut out of his game the coast to coast attempts which often end up futile and are really low percentage.
He should work on his outside jumper shot to get consistency. He misses too much.
Work on his passing and awareness.
He is a decent player, but not anywhere near an all star. Maybe as an NBA bench warmer, but I doubt he will be a starter.
August 10th 2012 @ 12:24pm
Worlds Biggest said | August 10th 2012 @ 12:24pm | Report comment
The problem in the NBA is you get pidgeon holed early in your career as a bench player in Mills case. Yes he does have area’s to improve notably his shot percentage, selection and passing. He has plenty of upside, he can certainly improve and become a starter in the NBA with the right coaching and enviroment. He might learn a lot playing behind Parker but he doesn’t see a lot of court time which is what he needs to improve. Mills was our best player ( again ) at the games with Joe Ingles also outstanding. Ingles has NBA potential I think.
August 10th 2012 @ 2:48pm
Ryan O'Connell said | August 10th 2012 @ 2:48pm | Report comment
I’d be shocked if Mills was ever a full-time starter in the NBA. He has plenty of upside, but I’m not sure it reaches that far.
August 10th 2012 @ 1:01pm
B-Rock said | August 10th 2012 @ 1:01pm | Report comment
Playing for Australia, Mills needed to score plenty due to lack of other options – Ingles was the only other boomer that could consistently score against the better teams.
Mills is not a good shooter. He is streaky and likes to take the big shot (most shots actually) but he is very inconsistent. At the NBA level his athleticism is only slightly above average so will struggle to have the same impact if his shot isnt falling. Obviously he doesnt have the size/strength of most modern point guards so Im not sure if his ceiling is necessarily increasing.
The reality is he had a green light from Brett Brown to shoot any time he wanted, and his stats looked great as a result. He will never be that player in the NBA. As many have commented, he needs to improve his shooting, shot selection and passing ability. Three pretty important skills for an undersized PG in the NBA.
August 10th 2012 @ 2:51pm
Ryan O'Connell said | August 10th 2012 @ 2:51pm | Report comment
I’m not basing his ceiling on just his performance at the Olympics. He’s shown plenty of potential in the NBA itself. And in terms of his athleticism, his speed is world class – he’s fast, even in the NBA.
August 10th 2012 @ 2:19pm
Alfred Chan said | August 10th 2012 @ 2:19pm | Report comment
I really liked what Mills did at the end of the NBA season. Uncontracted, he could have walked but he signed a 1 year deal with the Spurs for very little money. He’ll sit behind Parker getting maybe five minutes a game but he’s at arguably the best all-round franchise. He played well at the end of the season when Parker was rested for finals and I think Mills could have gotten much more game time elsewhere but good on him for staying at the Spurs on a small salary.
August 10th 2012 @ 2:53pm
Ryan O'Connell said | August 10th 2012 @ 2:53pm | Report comment
The Spurs are the best run organisation in the NBA, and are one of the most well coached. You could do a lot worse in your career than stay within that type of environment. So you’re right, it was a wise decision by Mills.
August 10th 2012 @ 2:20pm
sledgeross said | August 10th 2012 @ 2:20pm | Report comment
Cmon, lets face it people, Mills is a good Aussie player but he doesnt make the top 50 guards in the NBA. I love him as a player, but lets not overestimate his skills. He shoots way to much for a poor percentage, and doesnt make his teammates better through his skills. Fact is we looked much better when the limited dellavedova or ingles were running the offence. At least Dellavedova knows his limitations.
August 10th 2012 @ 2:49pm
Ryan O'Connell said | August 10th 2012 @ 2:49pm | Report comment
To be fair, I never, ever said he would be a top 50 NBA player, mate. I think if he made the top 7 rotation on an NBA player, that would be a heck of an achievement.