Four highlights for the upcoming Spring Carnival
French horse Dunaden (right, yellow silks) ridden by Christophe Lemaire gallops to victory. AAP Image/Julian Smith
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As the days get longer, the City2Surf has been run, and footy seasons wind into finals action, racing fans start to rub their hands together in anticipation. The Spring Carnival is almost upon us.
The 2012 Carnival promises to be one of the best in years and here are four highlights to look forward to this spring.
Atlantic Jewel
In the absence of Black Caviar, four-year old undefeated mare Atlantic Jewel is sure to be the star of the spring.
She’s won each of her seven starts at distances ranging from 1100 metres at maiden class to 2000 metres at Group Two level. Atlantic Jewel has also taken two Group Ones along the way, at 1600 and 1400 metres respectively.
Trained by Mark Kavanagh at Flemington, the Jewel is more advanced than what Black Caviar was at a similar time in her career and with the Cox Plate her aim, she is already threatening to tear the Carnival apart.
Along with a Cox Plate nomination, Kavanagh has Atlantic Jewel entered in the Caulfield Cup, hinting that the Fastnet Rock mare could possibly have the Melbourne Cup pencilled in at the end of her campaign.
While a tilt at the Cup may seem unlikely, if Atlantic Jewel was to remain undefeated through the spring, taking victory in both the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup, it would have to rank as one of the most incredible achievements in Australia racing history.
Atlantic Jewel would be an unbeaten Group One winner from 1400 metres through to two miles.
Perhaps only Phar Lap’s four victories in the space of a week during the 1930 Melbourne Cup Carnival at distances ranging from eight furlongs (1609 metres) to two miles, at both handicap and weight-for-age, can surpass what Atlantic Jewel might have in front of her this spring.
Caulfield Guineas
The Caulfield Guineas is the blue riband three-year old race each spring and this season’s renewal promises to be something else.
Two months out from the Guineas and with some of the key protagonists yet to make themselves known, anticipation is already beginning to build.
At this early point the Guineas looks to be a two-horse battle between the undefeated Triple Crown-winning two-year old Pierro and his autumn nemesis All Too Hard – the half-brother to Black Caviar.
When these two horses met at Randwick in April’s Sires Produce, it was Pierro who took full advantage of All Too Hard’s sluggish start to record a dominant victory in the second leg of the Triple Crown.
But even before that race was run, the Guineas was declared All Too Hard’s grand final by the Hawkes team, who train this hulking colt. And with good reason – the Caulfield Guineas is a stallion making race; the winner assured of a valuable career at stud.
By way of example, the 1999 Caulfield Guineas victor Redoute’s Choice went on to become one of Australia’s most influential sires, valued, at one point, at over $200m.
Owner Nathan Tinkler is trying to get his Patinack Farm breeding operation off the ground and if All Too Hard can win this race, his massive investment in the racing industry would begin to bear fruit.
Whether All Too Hard can turn the tables on the professional Pierro is another thing however.
Cox Plate Carnival
The 2012 weight-for-age championship promises to be the race of the spring. Last year’s Cox Plate failed to draw a quality line-up but just 12 months down the track, it looks like we are going be treated to a vintage Cox Plate.
The Moonee Valley Racing Club has gone all out for the 2012 Cox Plate. For the first time, the MVRC will run a two-day meeting for their showpiece event.
The Club has received a raft of criticism for the move with many punters and pundits raising concerns about the track’s capacity to remain bias-free, hosting 17 races in two days, including the Cox Plate which will be the second last race on the two-day card.
I think it’s a fantastic initiative that is sure to draw the racing world’s attention and I have every intention of making the trip down to the Valley for this historic event. Let’s hope the track plays fair.
Friday night, Cox Plate eve, will open the carnival with the Group One Manikato Stakes (1200 metres) that is set to draw an international field, possibly including champion Asian sprinters Rocket Man (Singapore) and Lucky Nine (Hong Kong).
And on the Saturday, Atlantic Jewel will probably start favourite in a race that should include the likes of More Joyous (undefeated in 2012), Pierro (champion two-year old) and Manighar (Australian Cup, Ranvet Stakes and BMW winner).
There may even be a couple of Europeans in the race. Reliable Man (French Derby winner who was fourth in Danedream’s King George) and Group One winner Planteur (the only horse to accept the MVRC’s June invitation) were nominated this month.
The 2012 Cox Plate won’t rival the legendary 1992 renewal in quality but it might not be too far behind.
Pierro
Pierro is, in my opinion, the most exciting male horse in the country. He’s won each of his six starts, three at Group One level and none at what I believe will be his pet distance – 2000 metres.
This three-year old son of the great middle-distance horse Lonhro, showed professionalism beyond his years in the autumn, recording victory in the Australian two-year old Triple Crown; the first horse to achieve the feat since stable mate Dance Hero in 2004.
Trained by Gai Waterhouse at Randwick, Pierro proved himself to be at the head of the juvenile crop, racing at distances that appear, to the eye and on breeding, unsuitable.
The mother of Pierro was a 2400 metre horse, sired by the dual continental champion of the 1990s Daylami. With 2400-metre winners on both sides of his family, it wouldn’t surprise to see Pierro claim a Derby this season.
After Pierro destroyed his rivals in the Sires Produce in April, Waterhouse warned, “He’s brained them at 1400, what he’s going to do to them at 2000 metres?”
Pierro will be aimed at the Cox Plate, where he will attempt to emulate the feats of grandfather Octagonal, a horse that won the Cox Plate in his three-year old season.
To add even more interest to what shapes as a classic race, I hope Pierro and Atlantic Jewel arrive at Moonee Valley undefeated.
Pierro has a lot to live up to but he gives every indication he will be just as good as his champion lineage suggests.
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August 13th 2012 @ 9:28am
BBP said | August 13th 2012 @ 9:28am | Report comment
Cox Plate
The track is going to be cut to pieces by the time this race is run. You’ll need to be bloody good to come from too far behind. Consistent leading types like More Joyous will be in it up to their ears.
I might say, this SHOULD be So You Think’s fourth start in the Cox Plate. If still sound and trained by JB he would be odds on favourite. But we will never know. Thanks Dato.
Sign me up as a Pierro doubter. No way he will be undefeated this season. Of course he is a very good horse, but he is just not brilliant enough to take out a Cox Plate. He won’t run a place. There will be too many hard, fit, seasoned older horses in it this year. He will get beaten up on the bend by the big boys and he isn’t good enough to lead all the way as So You Think did as a 3yo (still a 2yo by calendar months).
Atlantic Jewel will need to stay out of trouble to be in it at the end. If she gets into a scrap with Manighar, Secret Admirer, Sincero, Mosheen or even All Too Hard (assuming he’s in it) she will need to be every bit as good as Crying Kav says she is. That said, I hope she is.
Make it rain – box up Manighar, Sincero, Mosheen, More Joyous and AJ in a First Four.
Caulfield Guineas
Surely She’s a Fox comes into calculation now (although not included in the early noms). Query whether she can hold her form (or get the mile) for that long, but if it was being run in a few weeks she’d be firmly in my calculations. She is on fire.
Obviously All Too Hard and Pierro will dominate the market, and rightly so. ATH has a lot more improvement left in him than Pierro IMO. He got done in the Sires, but missed the kick and never got the easy passage Pierro did. That is a forgive run for me.
Samaready is almost the forgotten horse it seems. She bolted home in the Slipper after a poor run in transit. She had to round the field and still rattled home. Don’t tell me she won’t get a mile.
Can’t see anything else (at this stage) being good enough to trouble the ones named above. Great year for the Guineas.
If I had to put a bet on now it would be ATH on trust. If She’s a Fox was nominated and holding her form in a month or so (surely she’ll be entered later on if she runs well in the Golden Rose) I’d load up each way.
August 13th 2012 @ 11:49am
Alfred Chan said | August 13th 2012 @ 11:49am | Report comment
I’m a huge fan of the Jewel but I can’t see her running in both the Cox Plate and the Melbourne Cup. I think the Cox Plate distance is just on the edge of her capabilities. A lot of the Fastnet Rock sires struggle beyond 2000m. I can’t think of any who I’ve seen stay well at the top level. She’s an absolute beauty but we’ve only seen her run 2000m in the Wakeful and the field for that was abysmal. That said, I still think she’s good enough for the Cox Plate but anything further, I’m not sold.
Cox Plate into the Myer sounds much more realistic. I’d like to see her in the Herbert Power first to see if she can run the distance against a quality field. If she can do it, go nuts on the Caulfield Cup into the Cox Plate but if she can’t, just take the extra week off and win a Cox Plate. Lord help us all if she gets injured.
August 13th 2012 @ 12:21pm
Justin Cinque said | August 13th 2012 @ 12:21pm | Report comment
Alfred, i agree, that wakeful field was awful but she was so impressive. It was so soft. The zabeel blood makes me think she can stay a tad. Not sure she’ll be a natural two miler but she should get into the race with 54 being a mare and all, and kav does like to attack the majors so i think the cup is a remote possibility. Actually i’d be more suprised if she ran caul cup into cox plate… Even though kav successfully employed the back up in 08 with maldivian. I suspect AJ will take a SYT 2010 WFA route through the spring, maybe, possibly culminating in the cup.
August 13th 2012 @ 12:26pm
BBP said | August 13th 2012 @ 12:26pm | Report comment
If AJ runs well in the Plate she’ll be into the Mackinnon I would think. Why come back to a mile for the Myer (except of course if she just wanted to race against girls)?
Long odds on her running in the Melb Cup. I wouldn’t touch her in that race – on her breeding I cannot see her getting 2 miles.
August 13th 2012 @ 12:36pm
Alfred Chan said | August 13th 2012 @ 12:36pm | Report comment
Ahh yes. I forgot about the Mackinnon. Ignore the Myer.
August 13th 2012 @ 12:42pm
BBP said | August 13th 2012 @ 12:42pm | Report comment
Talking of the Myer …
RIP Typhoon Tracy. Died today after giving birth to a Street Cry foal (which survived).
6 x Group 1s. 2009/2010 Horse of the Year.
A great, great mare. Very sad day.
August 13th 2012 @ 12:48pm
Justin Cinque said | August 13th 2012 @ 12:48pm | Report comment
Yeah very sad. Very strong, determined mare who was at the head of australian racing for a season or two.
August 13th 2012 @ 7:56pm
Bondy. said | August 13th 2012 @ 7:56pm | Report comment
I backed Redoutes that day he beat testa rossa in a beauty,pierro is a real bulldog I cant wait for his return. That’s sad news with typhoon tracy BBP she was an elegant horse.
Alfred, nice theory with the jewel ,but if she runs in the herbert power that’d be three runs in three weeks 6.8ks in 21 days greulling she’d probably go for the makybe stks St Wghts a fortnight prior into the caufield cup if she cant run that out back to the plate and the mc kinnon ” i’d suggest that will be the flight plan” if she wins the caufield cup well then know where she’s going.
I heard star spangled banner was back racing, anyone know !.
Good read Justin look forward to the spring.
August 13th 2012 @ 8:41pm
Alfred Chan said | August 13th 2012 @ 8:41pm | Report comment
Yup. Starspangledbanner is being prepped to race again. He was a massive flop (no pun intended) at stud due to fertility problems. Poor fella, he woulda been living the life. No news on if he’ll come back to Australia or stay in Europe yet.
August 13th 2012 @ 8:45pm
Alfred Chan said | August 13th 2012 @ 8:45pm | Report comment
Apologies. After a quick google search, it looks like he’ll be returning via the Group 3 Patrick P. O’Leary Memorial Phoenix Sprint Stakes at the Curragh on Sunday. Looking forward to it!
August 13th 2012 @ 8:57pm
Justin Cinque said | August 13th 2012 @ 8:57pm | Report comment
Haven’t seen footage Alfred but apparently he finished last beaten 20L in the Phoenix Stakes which was run around 1am this morning.
http://racenet.com.au/news/82469/Starspangledbanner-last-in-racetrack-return
Disappointing stuff but he may take a prep. Of course he may never be the same horse again.
August 13th 2012 @ 8:57pm
Alfred Chan said | August 13th 2012 @ 8:57pm | Report comment
I’m really off the ball today. He raced last night. I’ll be quiet and just copy/paste:
“The stallion finished tailed off in his comeback in the Phoenix Sprint Stakes on his return from a failed stud career. The six-year-old led for a long way before fading badly, leaving his connections to ponder his future.”
Full story: http://www.racingandsports.com.au/racing/rsnewsart.asp?NID=257415&story=IRELAND:_Starspangledbanner_Flops_In_Comeback
August 13th 2012 @ 8:59pm
Justin Cinque said | August 13th 2012 @ 8:59pm | Report comment
Hey bondy the 1999 Caulfield Guineas is one of my favourite races of all time.
It’s almost a tragedy that it’s not on youtube.
August 13th 2012 @ 9:24pm
Tristan Rayner said | August 13th 2012 @ 9:24pm | Report comment
Commanding Jewel raced today at Swan Hill in one of the most closely watched maiden’s out in country Victoria in some time.
The ‘Jewel is a 3/4 sister to the brilliant Atlantic Jewel, and was sent out to the track by trainer Leon Corstens who was looking for an easy kill – and more importantly, a dry track over the 975m.
The three-year old got the dry track Team Corstens was after, and with scratchings, was easily the best horse in the race after a 12L trial win 11 days earlier. From barrier 6 she jumped well and was eased into second just off the pace.
She was let go with around 300m to go without being under pressure and raced greenly to the line, but always comfortable with a 2L lead over Don’t Get Excited and some 5-6L over third placed Magnus Belle. She was never really let fly by jockey J Mott.
Now, Don’t Get Excited was beaten some 9L at Flemington, so Commanding Jewel’s win wasn’t as dominate as, say, Linton’s maiden win at Cranbourne by 10+L, but Atlantic Jewel’s debut wasn’t hugely dominant on debut either.
Post-race analysis showed her sectionals: L800 L600 L400 L200 L100 45.12 33.71 22.24 11.20 5.64.
The final race time over the 975 was about 0.5L slower than average but her sectionals were hot.
Via twitter:
“CJ Last 600m = 2Len faster than the standard average of all winners & 6.0 Len faster than the standard L600m lead time.”
“CJ Last 200m =4.5 L faster than the standard average for all winners source Vince Accardi”
The downside of all this? Your editor backed her and received the princely sum of 10c for every $ put on.
She’ll be one to watch this spring.
August 13th 2012 @ 9:46pm
Alfred Chan said | August 13th 2012 @ 9:46pm | Report comment
You and you’re Linton. Backing him for the MC three years running?
August 13th 2012 @ 10:37pm
Justin Cinque said | August 13th 2012 @ 10:37pm | Report comment
I wonder why they wanted to avoid a wet track. Commanding Jewel is by Commands and they absolutely love the wet. Kavanagh wants to avoid a wet track with Atlantic Jewel too. Maybe the mother’s side of the family are dry trackers?
Impressive from CJ. Swan Hill has a weird habit of being the starting place for some pretty good careers. VRC Derby and Dubai winner Elvstroem won his maiden at SH in 2003 by less than a length and Doncaster Hcp and Queen Anne winner Haradasun won his maiden at SH by ten lengths in 2006.
Taking $1.10 on Monday morning Tristan? Streuth.
August 13th 2012 @ 10:55pm
Tristan Rayner said | August 13th 2012 @ 10:55pm | Report comment
Haha, nice memory Alfred. Two years ws enough, thanks! He wasn’t a 3200m horse, but you can’t tell Team Williams or I that
@Justin – Don’t know re: the wet. Try giving Corstens a buzz to get some insight (good luck). I think he just wanted to see what she could do, without any sort of soft ground taking anything away from her.
Looking forward to her running again. Ps Yes, I didn’t think she’d be that short, but the tote is unforgiving! Should have taken the exacta, strewth.
August 13th 2012 @ 11:10pm
Justin Cinque said | August 13th 2012 @ 11:10pm | Report comment
That makes sense re – the wet track. Yeah, it’ll be good to see her over the spring. I wonder how she’ll turn out.
August 14th 2012 @ 6:59am
Bondy. said | August 14th 2012 @ 6:59am | Report comment
Just on the wet track situation I wish they’d stop watering tracks prior to meets especially in the spring and autumn i’;ll give $20 to charity if somebody can find me genuine good ground over the spring carnival on a saturday.
$1.10′s not much value tristan but looking at the sectionals it was a given, the last 600 in a shade over 33 is moving for a horse having its first start it’ll be shorter next start.
I heard on radio this morning Gai’s trying to book C Williams for the Cox plate ride on pierro 48.5ks,off the top of my head the last three year old was Savabeel (Sydney) to win the plate.
August 14th 2012 @ 7:31am
Justin Cinque said | August 14th 2012 @ 7:31am | Report comment
Bondy the Victorians invented track watering so I don’t think it’s going anywhere this spring but as long as the Carnival is bias free I don’t have any complaints. Last year’s Carnival seemed to be fine re – bias so more of the same please!
Williams will be a good booking. So You Think won it in 09 as a three year old, so he’s the only one since Savabeel in 04.
August 14th 2012 @ 10:25am
Bondy. said | August 14th 2012 @ 10:25am | Report comment
Cheers Justin ,how could I forget So You Think.
August 13th 2012 @ 11:10pm
sheek said | August 13th 2012 @ 11:10pm | Report comment
Justin,
I know I’ve said it before, but I just have to say it again, is there a better 6 weekends of racing anywhere in the world, including the midweeks?????
(Note, I’ve eschewed races with sponsor’s names, I detest them).
Weekend 1: Caulfield Stakes & Caulfield (2000) Gns day.
Midweek: Caulfield 1000 Gns day.
Weekend 2: Caulfield Cup day.
Midweek: Geelong Cup day.
Weekend 3: WS Cox Plate & Moonee Valley Cup day.
Midweek; Cranbourne Cup day.
Weekend 4: Victorian Derby day (plus LKS Mackinnon Stakes, Wakeful Stakes, Hotham Hcp, etc).
Midweek Tue: The Great Race – Melbourne Cup day.
Midweek Thu – Victorian Oaks day.
Weekend 5: Queen Elizabeth Stakes day.
Weekend 6: Sandown Classic day.
You can have your Royal Ascot carnival, your Prix de l’Arc at Longchamps, your Kentucky Derby & the Breeders Cup program, but tell me:
Where else in the world can you have 6 glorious weeks of thoroughbred horse racing, & so much quality & variety in racing?
Where???
And nor should anyone involved in Australian racing forget why these 6 weeks are so gloriously special – it’s because of the variety of racing those 6 weeks offer – 1000m sprints up to gut-wrenching 3200m; wfas & hcps; 3yo & 2yo classics; mares & fillies quality set weights & penalties. It’s all there.
August 13th 2012 @ 11:21pm
Justin Cinque said | August 13th 2012 @ 11:21pm | Report comment
sheek it’s fantastic. It’s a brilliant format. It just works so well. The climax to the Melbourne Cup I think separates the Spring Carnival from any other racing festival in the world. It’s in a class of it’s own.
.
August 14th 2012 @ 5:27pm
Australian Rules said | August 14th 2012 @ 5:27pm | Report comment
It’s quite extraordinary isn’t it sheek?
Between justin’s article and your post, I’m foaming up around the bridle!
August 14th 2012 @ 5:42pm
johnny nevin is a legend said | August 14th 2012 @ 5:42pm | Report comment
Its the Breeders Cup for me, it showcases the best of American and European horses over 2 days on dirt and turf.
August 14th 2012 @ 5:51pm
Justin Cinque said | August 14th 2012 @ 5:51pm | Report comment
Fair enough johnny. The Breeder’s Cup showcases better horses than Melbourne’s spring and many, many people would agree with you for that reason. But I’ve grown up with the Melbourne Cup as the showpiece race and that’s probably why the Spring Carnival wins out for me.
August 14th 2012 @ 8:53am
BBP said | August 14th 2012 @ 8:53am | Report comment
Hard to get a handle on the big sprints this season (at least it is for me).
With no Black Caviar, Hay List or Foxwedge who are going to be the genuine top class sprinters ?
I have Rain Affair and Buffering as older horses in the frame, but who other than that ?
There are some wonderful three olds but I expect the best ones to step up in distance – I am thinking of Pierro, All Too Hard etc.
What about Nechita, Dreifontein, She’s a Fox, Raceway, Snitzerland and Samaready ? Will they remain sprinters ?
August 14th 2012 @ 12:49pm
Tristan Rayner said | August 14th 2012 @ 12:49pm | Report comment
Good questions, and no answers at this stage. We’ll see a few bolt from the blue, hopefully.
August 15th 2012 @ 8:54am
Bondy. said | August 15th 2012 @ 8:54am | Report comment
I find this site handy I dont know if I can promote it here,I like to get the early noms and the Group 1′s should generally be up by Mondays or Tuesdays soon, most of you should have it but if not its handy.
( http://www.risa.com.au/ )…