Why aren’t they calling for Hird’s head?
Roar Guru By Macca, 14 Aug 2012 The Crowd is a Roar Guru
- Tagged:
- 2012 AFL season, AFL, Brett Ratten, Carlton, Essendon, Essendon Bombers, james hird
Essendon coach James Hird (Slattery Images)
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I must say right from the start that I don’t think James Hird should be sacked as Essendon coach, but I find it odd that given the hysteria around Brett Ratten, no one has called for Hird to be sacked.
If the Blues manage to win this weekend against the Bombers, both sides will have an 11-9 record, yet Ratten is deemed to be coaching for his life while Hird, who has overseen the Bombers crash from 8-1 to 11-8, with the only victory since June being against Port Adelaide, seems safe.
The Blues worst period this year was losing six from seven which included losses to Adelaide, Hawthorn, St Kilda, Geelong and West Coast in Perth (the last two by less than two goals) while the Bombers recent run of outs is five from six with losses to St Kilda, Geelong, Hawthorn and Adelaide.
Now I fully understand and recognise that injuries have played a massive part in the Bombers downfall, while Ratten has had the same (or possibly worse) issue, yet the calls still come.
Ratten fielded a team against the Bulldogs with at least 10 of his best 22 missing; the Blues have not had Carrazzo, Murphy, Simpson and Judd in the same side since Round 3.
Laidler, Hampson, Henderson and Waite have all missed about half the season with back up talls Casboult, White, Mitchell and Davies also missing for most the year. Also throw in Yarran, Walker, Robinson, Warnock and Jamison, missing at least a month, and the magnitude of Ratten’s task can be seen.
The other thing that is thrown at Ratten is that he made the call of making the top four, so that is what he is judged by.
Well, if Hird didn’t aim for top four, why not? They made the eight last year, surely his aims should have been for an improvement. Was his team simply aiming for seventh?
So given all the similarities between the two coaches, I find it surprising that one has to “coach for his career” every week while the other has almost no scrutiny.
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- 2012 AFL season, AFL, Brett Ratten, Carlton, Essendon, Essendon Bombers, james hird
August 14th 2012 @ 9:36am
GCS said | August 14th 2012 @ 9:36am | Report comment
You’ve written this article too early. Essendon are still in the eight, so it would be ridiculous to call for Hird’s head at this stage. The expectations weren’t that high on the Bombers pre-season, so that also comes into play.
August 14th 2012 @ 9:44am
Macca said | August 14th 2012 @ 9:44am | Report comment
No point being behind the game GCS, Essendon play Carlton, Richmond and Collingwood, big possibility of losing all three and would need to win at least 2 to make the finals.
And given the Blues are looking at least as likely to make the finals as the bombers right now why is it ridiculous to call for Hirds head but not Rattens?
August 14th 2012 @ 9:53am
Richo said | August 14th 2012 @ 9:53am | Report comment
Take your point on the double standards between Ratten and Hird.
However, Ratten has been in the job for longer and Carlton has made finals for the past several years. Their list is also more mature, meaning their premiership ‘window’ is closing faster than Essendon’s.
Yes, Essendon did make the finals, but they finished 8th and got belted in the first week.
In contrast Carlton fell just short in a semi final against West Coast (a game they perhaps should have won).
Some of Carlton players where were standouts last year (such as Andrew Walker) have gone MIA this season.
Utlimately injuries have had a massive impact and that hurts any team (Hawthorn 09 anyone?).
I would be suprised if Ratten go the chop.
August 14th 2012 @ 10:08am
Macca said | August 14th 2012 @ 10:08am | Report comment
Richo – I acknowledge that Ratten has had the job longer than Hird but the maturity of the list is a bit of a furphy, the bombers bottomed out under Sheedy and he did leave a terrible list for Knights (interesting to see recently Watson would of been gone from the bombers if Sheedy had stayed) but Hird inherited a list that Knights had already improved.
They got Ryder at 7 in 2005 (the blues got Murphy at 1), Gumbleton at 2 when the blues got Gibbs in 2006, Myers at 6 When the blues got Kreuzer in 2007, Hurley in 2008 at 5 when the blues got Yarran at 6, Melksham at 10 in 2009 when the blues got Lucas at 12, Heppell at 8 (which was a surprise he went that late) in 2010 when the blues got Watson at 18. So their draft picks have been pretty much the same since 2005 and probably higher since Ratten took over at the blues.
SOme of the blues standouts from last year have dropped off but Walker and Yarran have had injury issues to deal with, Garlett is probably the one who lost form but sems to have regained it since playing more in the midfield.
August 14th 2012 @ 9:55am
checkside said | August 14th 2012 @ 9:55am | Report comment
Macca- totally agree with all you said but I believe most of the flak Ratten receives is from within the club and a lot of Carlton supporters. Mark Maclure said on Fox Footy 360 last month after the club started the slide due to injuries, the expectations can be very unrealistic and when the team doesnt win a few in a row the coach usually is the one blamed. Maclure said “he was in no doubt that Ratten will be out of his post at the end of the 2012 campaign, if not sooner” and that people outside the club do not understand the Carlton Football Club. Patience has never been its strong point at the proud club.
August 14th 2012 @ 10:09am
Macca said | August 14th 2012 @ 10:09am | Report comment
Agree about the flak coming from inside, as a Carlton supporter i have never understood it myself.
August 14th 2012 @ 10:02am
Nathan of Perth said | August 14th 2012 @ 10:02am | Report comment
I don’t think there’s much point, surely – Bomber Thompson is the one making the calls!
I keed, I keed.
But seriously, its not really the year to make that call. Long term stuff caused by “the Weapon” has wrecked the season. The question will be if there is paydirt next year. After this year, next year must result in pushing high up the ladder late in season. Of course, this will be tricky with many new teams reaching the height of their strength, in particular interstate teams.
August 14th 2012 @ 10:06am
damo said | August 14th 2012 @ 10:06am | Report comment
Agreed. And the elephant in the room here is Hird is the Dons #1 golden boy. That coupled with his amazing support cast is enough to viably ask for patients while the club gets everything right on field
August 14th 2012 @ 10:10am
Macca said | August 14th 2012 @ 10:10am | Report comment
Hird isn’t just the bombers Golden boy he is the media’s as well, when he was playing he was treated differently by the media and the same is happening now
August 14th 2012 @ 10:17am
GCS said | August 14th 2012 @ 10:17am | Report comment
If he is the media’s golden boy, then he deserves it. The guy has been a credit to the game for 20 years.
August 14th 2012 @ 10:45am
Macca said | August 14th 2012 @ 10:45am | Report comment
And Ratten hasn’t?
August 14th 2012 @ 11:35am
Matt F said | August 14th 2012 @ 11:35am | Report comment
They’re not in the same situation. Carlton finished 11th, 7th, 8th, and 5th under Ratten with a fairly young side that looked to be improving. They finished on 58 points last season (currently on 40 now) and stated that they were aiming for the Top 4. They won’t play finals this year so by almost any measurement Carlton have gone backwards this year. Yes this can be partially explained by injuries, and I’m not saying that Ratten should necessarily be sacked, but there are some legitimate questions that should be asked about him going into next season. This is his 5th year as coach so while it’s by no means a poor record it’s not a brilliant record after 5 years either.
Hird by contrast, is into his second year as coach and has his side in a similar position to last season (46 points in total last year compared to 44 now.) On form they look like they will just miss the finals but there’s still time for them to turn it around and if things go their way they could still get a home final, as unlikely as it looks. Their last month has been absolutely awful but you only have to look at the performance of West Coast last week to see that things can turn around quite quickly. I would have thought that a natural progression from 8th would have been a home final (5-6) but, like the Blues, Essendon have also had a large number of injuries which haven’t helped. However they do appear to have covered their injuries better than Carlton have. If Essendon fail to make the Top 6 (at a minimum) next year then I would agree with you 100% but at the moment I think that it’s a year too early to really judge Hird.
August 14th 2012 @ 11:54am
Macca said | August 14th 2012 @ 11:54am | Report comment
Matt F – If the blues win this week with games against GCS and the Saints (possbily without Riewoldt) they will finish with 52 points and quite possibly in 8th, if Richmond and North do the right thing and keep winning. Essendon could well lose all three and end the season on 44 after being on 32 after 9 rounds.
And if you look at my response to RIcho above you will see the Bombers have had similar draft picks from 2005 as the blues and hadn’t been belted with the pre 2005 sanctions the blues had so the argument that the Blues shold be further advanced than the bombers is a bit weak.
And yes the blues haven’t achieved what they predicted but many had them missing the 8 before the season with a full side and teh Herald Sun predicted just over a month ago they would finish on 10 wins for the season, the fact that they will get very close after being smashed with injuries is a real credit.
I also would like a bit more detail on your assertion the bombers have covered their injuries better, I would suggest the blues have had worse injuries and worse timed injuries than the bombers and are only 1 game behind them.
On top of all that the blues seem to have found a couple of players this year with Watson going OK and McInnes, Bell and Casboult looking like key players in 2013, who have the bombers uncovered?
August 14th 2012 @ 12:21pm
Matt F said | August 14th 2012 @ 12:21pm | Report comment
You first point is pure speculation. If Essendon win all 3 and Carlton lose all 3 then the opposite will happen. Bring that up again in 3 weeks if it happens. I don’t think either team will make finals. Fremantle look clearly best placed to take 8th spot.
I wouldn’t call those similar draft picks. You’ve had 3 number one picks and traded pick 2 plus Kennedy and 20 for Chris Judd. Essendon have not had those picks. Depending on the draft the quality can droop away very quickly after the top 1-5 players. Even then, most of those players were drafted under the previous coaches so it’s a bit hard to give credit or to criticise Ratten/Hird for those picks. The previous coaches could have simply wasted those picks. It’s not Hird’s fault that Essendon used Pick 2 on a player who can’t seem to get fit for any real period of time. All you can judge is what those players have produced in their careers and I think it’s fair to say that Murphy and Gibbs (looking exclusively at those drafted before both coaches came into their jobs) are better players than Ryder and Gumbleton ie Ratten had more to work with. Ratten’s also had 5 years to draft/trade his own team while Hird has had 2. Big difference.
Collingwood, West Coast, Essendon and Carlton (to name but a few) have all had significant numbers of injuries this season. The Pies, Bombers and Eagles are all either on track, or fractionally off, where people both in and out of the clubs predicted them to be at the start of the season while the Blues are currently 16 points and over 50% (effectively 5 games) behind the 4th placed Hawks. Given that their stated aim was to finish in the Top 4, and injuries are now being used as the main reason for this not happening, it seems quite clear that Carlton are much further behind their own expectations then the other clubs are which tells me that the other sides have covered their injuries better. The fact that they’re comparing themselves to Essendon rather then the likes of Collingwood and West Coast (who they were comparing themselves to at the start of the season) shows how far they’ve fallen away as well.
Who predicted the Blues to miss the top 8 at the start of the season? Ratten and everyone at Carlton certainly didn’t.
August 14th 2012 @ 1:21pm
Macca said | August 14th 2012 @ 1:21pm | Report comment
Matt F – Of course the first point is pure speculation but at this stage the blues look more likely to win their last 3 than the bombers and look quite likely to finish if not level on games won ahead of the bombers.
The blues traded a number 3 pick and Kennedy for Judd (so effectively 2 number 3 picks) so you could argue that Judd is the difference but I would suggest that this is more than made up for by the bombers getting Winderlich (11) & Watson (father/Son) in the 2002 draft and Stanton (13) in 2003 when the blues were effectively excluded. And the draft can drop off quickly but look at the player the bombers got, Hurley at 5, Melksham at 10 and Heppell at 8 are all top quality players Ryder is great when he decides to play and while Gumbleton has had injury issues they still had the number 2 pick so there is no excuse as to why they shouldn’t be aiming higher.
And I am not giving credit or criticising the coaches draft picks, just looking at the players they have at their disposal and the “maturity” of the list, they have both had similar (not the same) draft picks over a similar period with the bombers starting from a better position in 2005 yet the bombes are viewed as a young up and coming side while the blues are supposed to be in the premiership window?
And your argument regarding covering injuries is a bit of a stretech, by that logic you could argue Port Adelaide have covered their injuries the best as they are finishing the closest to expectations.
And go back and have a look at a lot of top 8 predictions pre season, a lot of them had the blues 9th.
August 14th 2012 @ 7:04pm
Matt F said | August 14th 2012 @ 7:04pm | Report comment
You may well finish level with Bombers (or one game ahead) but you were 3 games ahead of them last year, and absolutely thrashed them in the finals. Clearly the gap has closed.
Believe it or not, the pick a player was taken in the draft does not always reflect their AFL career. Travis Johnstone was taken at pick 1 remember, as were Josh Fraser and Clive Waterhouse. None of those players have turned out to be anywhere near the best player from their drafts? Countless superstars have bee taken with very late picks or off the rookie list. Murphy is a significantly better player than Gibbs even though they’re both number 1 picks. The Swans are currently on top of the ladder with very few top 10 picks. Just because a player was an early draft pick doesn’t mean that they’re a fantastic player.
Are you really saying that Carlton and Essendon have the same quality lists? Given that Hird has had 2 seasons to put together and utilise a list while Ratten has had 5, I would expect Ratten to be a lot further down the track then Hird.
How on earth is covering injuries well “a stretch?” It shows the depth on a list. Clearly Carlton don’t have great depth on their lists so the question must be asked why don’t they? Ratten’s had 5 years to put together a list. The clubs I mentioned in the last post are all close to achieving their season goals whilst Carlton are a mile off the Top 4 goal that they set for themselves. Why have the other clubs managed to remain close to their aims while Carlton have fallen so far away?
Port Adelaide were losing games with a full strength list so obviously losing players isn’t going to effect their results, just the margins. Are you saying that Carlton were always an 8-12 team this year?
I can’t remember any “expert” picking the Blues to miss the 8 at the start of the season, though it’s not very relevant as the coach himself stated that they should finish Top 4. I would have thought that the coach would have known his own list better then some newspaper journalist…..
August 15th 2012 @ 9:10am
Macca said | August 15th 2012 @ 9:10am | Report comment
Matt F – I didn’t say where they were picked reflect the player, you did by denying they were similar draft picks. I pointed out that the bombers bottomed out around the same time as the blues, have had some quality draft picks over the same time and the bombers started from a better position so the argument that Essendon are rebuilding while the blues list is mature is a furphy.
And I have said right from the start of the season the blues depth isn’t as good as the likes of Colingwood because they are in different phases. The list Ratten inherited in 2007 was terrible, how many players from pre 2007 are playing regular senior footy now? This year they have developed that depth with the likes of McInnes, Casboult Bell Watson and Bootsma. You also have to acknowledge that they have had injuries to their depth players as well, Davies, White, Casboult and Mitchell have all missed over half the year. Plus I never said covering injuries was a stretch, I said your arguement that Essendon are finishing closer to their expected position automatically means they covered their injuries better is a stretch, it is much more complicated than that.
And no I am not saying Carlton were always an 8-12 side this year but once they lost 1/2 their best side to injury, including almost all their key forwards and not being able to field Murphy Carrazzo Judd and simpson in the same side since round 3 they were going to struggle.
Use google to find the articles, their were quite a few tipping the blues to finish 9th, more had them just making the 8 but even now the blues are still likely to make the finals if the win this week and who knows from there.
August 15th 2012 @ 8:13am
brendan said | August 15th 2012 @ 8:13am | Report comment
Matt F i do like your line of reasoning.You can add Geelong to the list of teams who have injured players -Varcoe,Menzel,Vardy and Cowan have played no games added to Wocjinski out most of the season.Another way to look at Carlton’s year is that yes they have had injuries but so have many other teams who have achieved better than they have.In short how much have there injuries put them behind Essendon’s, Collingwood’s , Geelong’s or West Coast’s injuries.
August 14th 2012 @ 12:03pm
brendan said | August 14th 2012 @ 12:03pm | Report comment
Far too early to make the call .Incidentally Blues 9 to 1 for the eight Bombers 2.60 good odds you would think one of them will make it particularly if Geelong beat a Riewoldt less Stkilda.
August 14th 2012 @ 12:21pm
Matt F said | August 14th 2012 @ 12:21pm | Report comment
edit – wrong spot
August 14th 2012 @ 1:26pm
Andrew A said | August 14th 2012 @ 1:26pm | Report comment
Three number 1 draft picks plus Judd should have delivered a top 4 finish this year, especially with their relatively easy draw compared to other 2011 finalists. Carlton are a club that needs everything going their way to do well. Other sides have managed to grind out wins with key personnel out. West Coast have had a fairly good season without the likes of Kennedy, Le Cras, Embley, Nicoski, while Collingwood are in top 4 contention despite being without Ball, Krakouer and a raft of players missing at various times such as Pendlebury, Thomas, Swan. A key problem at Carlton has been their inability to develop players to fill in roles when a key player is unavailable. Their 2nd tier midfielders weren’t quite good enough to fill in for the likes of Murphy or Carrazzo when they were out.
August 14th 2012 @ 1:58pm
Macca said | August 14th 2012 @ 1:58pm | Report comment
Andrew A – 3 number 1 picks plus Judd should equal a top 4 finish you say? Even when 1 of those No 1 picks missed 8 weeks of the season and Judd missed 4?
And how many games have Swan, Pendlebury and Thomas missed, the blues have had Murphy & Carrazzo out for 8 each, Judd has missed 5.
Plus Cloke and Dawes have played every game, the blues have had Hampson and Waite miss 1/2 the season each plus Casboult missed more than 1/2. Now what about the Pies key defenders, the blues have had Henderson miss 1/2 the season, Laidler 3/4′s Jamison about 4. Throw in a month for Yarran, Walker, Simpson & Robinson and the blues injuries are more than a little worse than the Pies or West Coast.
And how has the blues draw been easier than other finalist, Adelaide and North play the bottom 4 sides more than anyone else.
August 15th 2012 @ 3:11am
Jack said | August 15th 2012 @ 3:11am | Report comment
LeCras, Kennedy, Embley, Nicoski missing all season and many more of the best 22 out at different stages due to injuries or suspensions eg Glass, Shuey, Hill! Rosa, Lynch, Waters, Schofield etc. the Eagles have played with 6-10 of their best 22 missing for 90% of the season and look where they are placed and how they played on Fri night against the Cats. That sounds similar to Carlton’s injuries woes doesn’t it but they are poles apart on the ladder.
You need to be in the Blues inner sanctum to make a call on Ratten, we don’t have enough information.From the outside I think they should give Ratts another year as he could do a Woosha (I don’t rate Ratts as high as Woosha but maybe he can get them back up fast). If Malthouse or another proven coach put their hand up you’d have to take it.
Hird has another years grace as he’s only in his 2nd year and he has a super support crew and list and he always said this wasn’t their year. They’ve played some brilliant footy at times this year but theyve dropped away. I expect them to be much better next year and that is crunch time for Hird.
August 15th 2012 @ 8:59am
Macca said | August 15th 2012 @ 8:59am | Report comment
Jack – The Eagles do have one advantage over the Blues home games in Perth, it makes a big difference in the games like Friday night and against the blues themselves.
Also injuries are catching up with the Eagles now.
And plus it isn’t just the number of injuries but who they have been, the blues went into the season a little light in the key forward dept and proceeded to lose all their key forwards for extended periods at the same time, Collingwood lost a lost of Key defenders but had good depth in that area to begin with, had they lost Cloke and/or Dawes the results might have been different. Similarly with the Eagles, they have an abundance of marking power in the forward line so the loss of Kennedy, Le Cras and Nicoski isn’t felt as much.
August 14th 2012 @ 1:42pm
checkside said | August 14th 2012 @ 1:42pm | Report comment
I am not sure if Carlton will give Ratten the flick, but I think Bomber Thompson is safe as he is doing a reasonable job as the coach.