The Wallabies must believe they can win
By David Lord, 18 Aug 2012 David Lord is a Roar Expert
116 Have your say
Robbie Deans showed he can win with the Wallabies win over Wales, but the Australian team has capitulated against the All Blacks (AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
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“We’re clicking,” were the encouraging words from the normally reserved Wallaby coach Robbie Deans yesterday, when he previewed tonight’s blockbuster clash with the All Blacks.
Encouraging because I’m not entirely convinced the Wallabies believe they can win. The thought, then the sight, of that black jersey with the silver fern has a numbing effect on the confidence of this Wallaby squad.
Losing 12 of the 15 meetings against the men-in-black on the Deans watch, including a record-breaking 10 losses on the trot, is proof enough.
Not like the 1984 Wallabies, nor the 1991 and 1999 versions. All three had a deep feeling of invincibility about them, including beating the All Blacks. And they proved it where it counted against all-comers.
The 1984 Wallabies, coached by Alan Jones and skippered by Andy Slack, won Australia’s only Grand Slam by beating England, Ireland, Scotland, and Wales, and regained the Bledisloe Cup.
Jones’ record – 30 Tests, 21 wins, 8 losses, and a draw – 70% win rate.
The 1991 Wallabies, coached by Bobby Dwyer and led by Nick Farr-Jones, won the World Cup and the Bledisloe.
Dwyer’s record – 73 Tests, 46 wins, 25 losses, and two draws – 63%.
And the 1999 Wallabies, coached by Rod Macqueen and captained by John Eales, also won the World Cup, and Bledisloe, but added the Tri-Nations, and virtually the same team beat the British and Irish Lions 2-1 for an historic victory in 2001. Those two wins ended Maqueen’s stellar international career.
Macqueen’s record – 43 Tests, 34 wins, 8 losses, and a draw – 79%.
An invincible belief was certainly the secret to success in all three eras. Contrast those stats with Deans’ career record with the Wallabies of 60 games, 36 wins, 23 losses, and a draw for 60%.
That’s not suggesting Deans is an inferior coach, not for one second. You don’t win five Super titles if you are a dud coach. What his stats are saying is the Wallabies are a hot and cold unit, and the players must answer for that inconsistency.
Tonight the Wallabies can lift their confidence immeasurably if they hit the All Blacks with everything, including the kitchen sink, in the first 20 minutes.
And that can’t be achieved by kicking away possession. Only ball-in-hand and attack, attack, attack, converting territory into points, preferably with a couple of tries.
A lead of 12 points-plus at quarter time would be the ants’ pants. If a raucous 80,000 home crowd can’t inspire the Wallabies, then they are not doing justice to the coveted gold jersey.
The All Blacks are the undisputed number one team in the world, and great front-runners. But they are vulnerable chasing, that’s why they must be hammered early, and be constantly pressured for the rest of the 80 minutes.
We know skipper David Pocock will do just that, he knows no other way. But he must get the full support of the Wallaby pack at scrum, ruck, and maul time, especially the front row of Benn Robinson, Tatafu Polota-Nau, and Sekope Kepu.
Meanwhile, he must also be able to rely on midfielders Anthony Fainga’a and Rob Horne to keep the super talents of All Black centres Sonny Bill Williams and Ma’a Nono in check, and give Wallaby match-winners Digby Ioane and Kurtley Beale plenty of room to move to strut their spectacular stuff.
Sure it’s a big ask, but what must be done to beat the best.
Otherwise, with the second of the three Bledisloe Cup matches at hoodoo Eden Park next Saturday, where the All Blacks haven’t been beaten for 18 years and 28 internationals, the Wallaby Bledisloe campaign could be shot to ribbons in the first week to increase the drought to 11 years.
Making tonight the night when the Wallabies must stand up to be counted.
So click Wallabies.
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August 18th 2012 @ 6:37am
Geoff Brisbane said | August 18th 2012 @ 6:37am | Report comment
I like the terminology “click” David it descibes everything coming together to enable accomplishment of the desired outcome which for the Wallabies would be a win. However if the All Blacks also “click” there will be one almighty hiding handed out based on the mental factor of success. I reckon there are just too many challenges across the park for the Wallabies because the All Blacks will focus on every opportunity and based on last years Brisbane match I was amazed at how the AB’s were able to adjust their game in the 2nd half (with disruptions due to loss of Reid and Thompson) and they used the pick and go so effectively. To me that is the characteristics of a striong mental team and sad to say I have yet to see the Wallabies do the same.
August 18th 2012 @ 6:58am
Darwin Stubbie said | August 18th 2012 @ 6:58am | Report comment
‘The All Blacks are the undisputed number one team in the world, and great front-runners. But they are vulnerable chasing’ …. Seriously ? … How many times over the Deans era have the kiwis chased down a wallaby lead … It’s a misnomer to pump this line as fact
I can’t escape the feeling that this wallaby line up looks similar to one a few years back that was trotted out for the Chch test after copping a hiding in Melb …. One built for scoreline containment – the wallaby won’t win with the conservative mindset that was on display against Wales – but that’s what Deans appears to be attempting here – wrong call for a home game
August 18th 2012 @ 8:34am
Jerry said | August 18th 2012 @ 8:34am | Report comment
The AB’s rarely lose and almost never lose by a large margin – only once in history have they lost by more than 20 points in a test.
So basically, when they lose it’s always a close match. And people make the mistake of thinking that because “All the All Blacks losses are close matches” to “The All Blacks always lose close matches”. It’s not even remotely accurate, but it’s a fairly persistent theory.
August 18th 2012 @ 7:00am
Johnno said | August 18th 2012 @ 7:00am | Report comment
-The reality is this , the AB’S are not as good away as at home no team is but they are still almost just as good such a tough thing to do. No national sports team in the world plays as well away from home as the AB’S. So the wallabies have to use the home ground advantage and get a win.
-To win the Rugby Championship, the formula goes like this:
-Win all your 3 home games, and pinch at least 1 win away from home and get a few bonus points along the way.
-So basically tonight i think , tonight is the wallabies grand final.
They have to win tonight otherwise there rugby championship is basically over. I can’t see this wallaby squad winning in NZ almost zero chance at eden park next week.
And not much chance in sth africa either despite a few good wins by deans last few years. last years win in Sth Africa was misleading as sty africa was mucking around with rotation, and even in 2010 win was good the point is wins are rare for aussies in sty africa there record in sty africa is just as bad as in NZ.
-So you have to hope to pinch at least 1 win out of 3. And the wallabies have the worst draw of the tournament too. That is why tonight is such grand final for there RC campaign.
-The south african leg they play south africa, then they have to fly 8 hours to STH america 2-3hour time zone difference like NZ.
-But try and win with only 5-6 acclimitasion in South america which most of the boys have never been too tough ask.
-So tonight i think i is the wallabies 2012 grand final tonight, they have to win tonight to stay alive in the RC, as the odds are stacked against them in all 3 of there away matches, .
August 18th 2012 @ 7:11am
Ben said | August 18th 2012 @ 7:11am | Report comment
This AB team is definitely weaker than the WC one. The loss of Thorne and Kaino are bigger than the ABs let on. The Irish dusted them upfront and please don’t talk about the 60-0 score that was the result of an Irish team that was too crushed from the week before.
How many World XV in the AB pack…maybe 1 Ritchie. Will be interesting to see if father time has caught up with him as well this year.
Line outs are going to be a nightmare for the ABs the wallabies have 4 options….the ABs 1 and he’s their No 8.
I think the Wallabies are going to kick for the corners and play the game on the sidelines. Frustrate the ABs and play to the line out.
In the backs AF will really bother SBW. He does nothing against the Reds. Nonu isn’t a natural 13. I think Rob Horne will have a break out game. He certainly doesn’t get owned by his opposite very often and against the best 13 in Fourie he did wonderfully.
I seem the remember the ABs being this confident before the WC semi in Sydney. When carlos spencer was smirking when the names were read out.
We have a far more athletic back row than them as well.
As for the front row. The Tah front row will be fine.
I am surprised at the confidence remember from last 3 encounters wallabies are 2-1
August 18th 2012 @ 8:05am
nickoldschool said | August 18th 2012 @ 8:05am | Report comment
On paper, they might look weaker than last year but they now play without the pressure they were under prior to the RWC. Plus i think guys like Aaron Smith and SBW are bringing so much to the side that they are as lethal if not more than before. Totally disagree with your statement about line outs too.
At this stage, just hope the wallabies have a real go.
Regarding the “raucous 80,000 home crowd ” David is talking about, am not sure he is referring to the stadium we are playing at tonight.
August 18th 2012 @ 8:36am
ohtani's jacket said | August 18th 2012 @ 8:36am | Report comment
Actually, in the last 3 encounters the All Blacks are 2-1.
Why is it that before every Bledisloe test people claim Australia have an advantage in the lineout? A decade ago that was true, but these days you’re more likely to see the All Blacks win more lineouts than the Wallabies.
August 18th 2012 @ 10:11am
ben said | August 18th 2012 @ 10:11am | Report comment
You are right the last 4 encounters 2-2. Going to be a great game i hope.
August 18th 2012 @ 8:54am
katzilla said | August 18th 2012 @ 8:54am | Report comment
‘How many World XV in the AB pack’
2 more then the Wallaby pack, and thats the crux of it.
No other number 8 in the world has the skills of the NABC Keiran Read.
August 18th 2012 @ 10:09am
ben said | August 18th 2012 @ 10:09am | Report comment
Keiran Read is no where near best No 8 in world rugby…not even top 3. I think most would have Cliffy Palu over him.
Top No 8′s in Order are Sergio Parise, Jamie Heaslip, Piere Spies, Cliffy Palu(when not injured),Imanol_Harinordoquy tehn maybe Kieren Read.
So the Ab’s have maybe 1 and thats Ritchie. Be Interesting to see how many this year would pick Ritchie over DP.
There is no height in this AB pack. Your going to have some issues.
August 18th 2012 @ 10:33am
katzilla said | August 18th 2012 @ 10:33am | Report comment
Im not sure if your trolling or serious?
No one in the world, not even South Africans are that delusional to think Spies is better then Read.
August 18th 2012 @ 10:59am
Bono said | August 18th 2012 @ 10:59am | Report comment
Read is the best forward in the world imo. While I agree the AB pack is weaker than last year, I think Romano has the potential to be better than Thorn. Kaino is a big loss however.
August 18th 2012 @ 11:56am
The Other Steve - and All Black fan said | August 18th 2012 @ 11:56am | Report comment
i can’t remember when Cliffy Palu last actually made an impression on a game. I know he has been injured a lot, but still he don’t open a game up like Reid had done many times.
August 18th 2012 @ 12:37pm
Uncle Argyle said | August 18th 2012 @ 12:37pm | Report comment
Keiran Read is the best No 8 hands down.
Sergio Parise gets a free ride becuase he is Italian and its fashionable to have an Italian in a world XV. He is a fine player but better than Read? McCaw is the ultimate rugby warrior but ask around who does the work around the Crusaders and All Blakcs and Keiran Read is the queit achiever that controls much of the game. Henry & Hanson and co rate so highly in All Black sucess.
Heaslip is very very good. Will probably be their for the Lions. Spies well Read has gotten the better of him and Cliffy si good but better than Read, on his day perhaps but consistently. Not really.
August 19th 2012 @ 12:14am
We've Got Bill said | August 19th 2012 @ 12:14am | Report comment
Ahahahahaha…. Ben wake up!!!! 27-19 and the ABs were hardly out of 2nd gear….
August 19th 2012 @ 9:06am
djkrammer said | August 19th 2012 @ 9:06am | Report comment
Care to comment Ben…Richie proved why he is better than Pocock by beating him in not only in the turnovers (which I agree that DP is better at), linking and ball carrying.
You’re dreaming if you dont think Read is the best 8 in the world. Your thoughts on how the Wallabies would beat the All Blacks in last nights game were way off.
Looking forward to your next post on how the Wallabies would defeat the All Blacks at fortress Eden Park & how your supposedly athletic backrow would go against Richie & Co. & how the AB’s perceived weakness in the lineouts will fare.
All Blacks to win by plenty
August 18th 2012 @ 9:41am
WQ said | August 18th 2012 @ 9:41am | Report comment
I love your optimism Ben, given your account of the two Teams, I imagine you are tipping them to win by 15!
August 18th 2012 @ 10:03am
ben said | August 18th 2012 @ 10:03am | Report comment
No I am just saying that the Ab’s have issues as well. I think the wallabies will win. I would be even more confident with QC playing. This forgone conclusion stuff is rediculous….the wallabies are No2 in the world. They have a very thin lineout and some new young forwards. Liam Messam and Luke Romano….
I wouldnt be as cocky as most Kiwis are being, there is only one way to go from there.
August 18th 2012 @ 11:04am
Jerry said | August 18th 2012 @ 11:04am | Report comment
I don’t think there’s a huge amount of cockiness out of NZ at the moment – it’s just that Wallaby fans are uncharacteristically pessimistic.
August 18th 2012 @ 1:34pm
bennalong said | August 18th 2012 @ 1:34pm | Report comment
It’s just the Roar!
Heaps of one-eyed Kiwis and negative, computer bound Ozzies
Not a representative grouping.
My mates left a year ago
I love the Wallabies, and I love BEATING the All Blacks.
And the Poms, and the Saffers. And don’t forget the French
But tonight I’m cheering for a Sydney version of Suncorp.
The weak bloggers said that wasn’t going to happen too!
August 18th 2012 @ 1:45pm
PeterK said | August 18th 2012 @ 1:45pm | Report comment
bennalong just because I think we will lose, and the tactics etc are wrong does not mean I dont want the Wallabies to win. I will be there cheering them on and I love beating the AB’s especially how rare it is now.
The point is I dont let my emotions or heart rule my head when analysing the situation and I am not blind or afraid to say I think they will play the wrong way and get smashed.
August 18th 2012 @ 2:39pm
DC of nz said | August 18th 2012 @ 2:39pm | Report comment
Ho ho ho ho
August 18th 2012 @ 6:56pm
Harryonthecoast said | August 18th 2012 @ 6:56pm | Report comment
He, He, He
August 18th 2012 @ 5:17pm
Kuruki said | August 18th 2012 @ 5:17pm | Report comment
Wow Ben that is the most uneducated summary i think i have ever seen. So many of your points are just plain wrong.
August 18th 2012 @ 7:15am
Red Block said | August 18th 2012 @ 7:15am | Report comment
I agree with Steve Hanson. Deans seems to have changed his thinking this time, whether for better or worse waits to be seen.
By picking Barnes, Ant Faingaa and Horne, it is pretty clear that the Wallabies won’t be going for all out attack. No doubt the Wallabies will play the game like they did against Wales.
So we should see plenty of kicking for territory and the back row competing like mad at the breakdown.
BTW now that Palu is out, the backrow looks much more combative unit.
Of course what we didn’t see was the Wallabies having to chase the game against Wales. The biggest question had to be is, can the Wallabies score enough points to beat a side that averages almost three tries per game.
I hope I’m wrong but without Cooper I doubt it!
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August 18th 2012 @ 7:35am
stillmissit said | August 18th 2012 @ 7:35am | Report comment
Red Block – Are you kidding? Palu is our greatest attacking weapon from set piece. His role will be filled by Dave Dennis who knows how to get across the line, it will not be done by Higgingbotham or Pocock and someone in the back row has to do it, TPN, Sharpe and Kepu will go across the line in the loose but it is from set play where Palu does what no other forward for several years has been able to do effectively.
My only consideration of Palu is that I think he gets over awed by the AB’s, it is an Islander thing….
August 18th 2012 @ 8:03am
moaman said | August 18th 2012 @ 8:03am | Report comment
” it is an Islander thing…. ” ???
August 18th 2012 @ 8:58am
katzilla said | August 18th 2012 @ 8:58am | Report comment
That makes sense, Scotland, Ireland, England, Australia, Wales are all on Islands making them all Islanders.
France, South Africa not on Islands.
August 18th 2012 @ 7:50am
kingplaymaker said | August 18th 2012 @ 7:50am | Report comment
That’s outrageous Red Block: go and look at Palu’s statistics for the Welsh series and you’ll see he tops nearly every table for tackles, runs, rucks.
August 18th 2012 @ 8:15am
El Gamba said | August 18th 2012 @ 8:15am | Report comment
What we also didn’t see, but got a glimpse of in the third test v Wales, was what a fit KB can bring to the side. Yes we have a conservative 10/12/13 but we have two of the most dynamic backs in the world in the back three with Digby and KB.
Ma’a at 13 will be a liability but I love the cockiness of the AB supporters. The two reasons we love to beat the AB’s are because they are the best in the world (obviously) and because, largely, their supporters are a bunch of arrogant ignorants.
August 18th 2012 @ 8:58am
Pierce said | August 18th 2012 @ 8:58am | Report comment
You were going all right until the second part of your final sentence which is arrogant and ignorant. Does your moniker refer to your brain, your tackle – or both? BTW, I think the Wallabies are a big show tonight. As they always are.
August 18th 2012 @ 12:01pm
El Gamba said | August 18th 2012 @ 12:01pm | Report comment
Sorry, present company excluded
August 18th 2012 @ 12:55pm
Pierce said | August 18th 2012 @ 12:55pm | Report comment
Apology accepted. See OJ below for attitude of most AB fans I know. My apologies for being cranky, don’t usually bother with that stuff. Missus double booked us tonight and I am going to have to watch replay. Not happy.
August 18th 2012 @ 1:24pm
El Gamba said | August 18th 2012 @ 1:24pm | Report comment
I hear you. When will they learn?
August 18th 2012 @ 9:46am
WQ said | August 18th 2012 @ 9:46am | Report comment
Right back at ya El Gamba
August 18th 2012 @ 12:04pm
El Gamba said | August 18th 2012 @ 12:04pm | Report comment
Seriously though, I just hope rugby is the winner on the night.
August 18th 2012 @ 12:21pm
WQ said | August 18th 2012 @ 12:21pm | Report comment
It always is El Gamba and lets hope for a cracker of a Test Match
August 18th 2012 @ 7:38am
stillmissit said | August 18th 2012 @ 7:38am | Report comment
I think this is our best team (of fit players) to fight the AB’s and fight they will need to do. I am looking forward to the game and for some stupid unknown reason I think we will win.
A couple of bottles of red wine and a decent meal at half time and the TV may have to put up with being roared at!
August 18th 2012 @ 7:59am
Worlds biggest said | August 18th 2012 @ 7:59am | Report comment
We’re clicking, I don’t like the sound of that. I’m going to go with the following scenario. Wallabies start with vigor and enthusiasm and take the lead through a couple of Barnes penalties. The AB’s finally awake from there slumber and hit the lead through a scintalating try and converted. Wallabies trying to get over the chalk but can’t do it, settle for another penalty. Carter responds with a penalty as the AB’s go to he sheds with the lead. The second half sees the AB’s get off to a strong start with plenty of pick n go’s as the pack starts to dominate. They forge ahead with another penalty as the Wallabies are just hanging in there. Another AB’s try through the forwards ices the game. A consolation try to Digby ensures a closer scoreline however in the end AB’s too good. Sound familiar !
August 18th 2012 @ 8:01am
moaman said | August 18th 2012 @ 8:01am | Report comment
David—A comment about the stats the various past coaches accumulated; Perhaps the Werewolf could do a breakdown at some stage but the overall percentage alone is highly misleading when one takes into account the sheer frequency that recent Wallaby teams have had to face NZ compared to earlier sides. In the past 17-odd seasons of Tri-Nations and sometimes extended Bledisloe campaigns,the two trans-Tasman teams meet up alot more often.The bulk of their 147-odd confrontations would have been in the modern (professional)era and naturally,given the historical win/loss % reults would be skewed.
Like to wish all Roarers a great day (wish I could be there) and an enthralling game/night.
Go the Blacks!
August 18th 2012 @ 8:03am
flying hori said | August 18th 2012 @ 8:03am | Report comment
A disperate team is a dangerous team. So who is the more disperate?
August 18th 2012 @ 8:07am
moaman said | August 18th 2012 @ 8:07am | Report comment
Think the ABs are disparate and the Wallabies are desperate!
August 18th 2012 @ 9:01am
katzilla said | August 18th 2012 @ 9:01am | Report comment
Touche.
If Flying Hori made that spelling mistake on purpose then double zing.
August 18th 2012 @ 10:58am
A Bedeian said | August 18th 2012 @ 10:58am | Report comment
No, it’s just his Kiwi accent
August 18th 2012 @ 8:30am
ohtani's jacket said | August 18th 2012 @ 8:30am | Report comment
The All Blacks rarely play to their potential. What makes them so successful is that they find a way to win even when things are going badly. Australian rugby, however, and I include the Wallabies and their fans here, seem to have this belief that the All Blacks will play at their very best, which I just don’t understand. If the Wallabies were playing the Springboks this weekend, people would be much more confident that the Wallabies can compete, but against the All Blacks the Wallabies get written off before the match has even begun.
The All Blacks look like the better team on paper, but rugby has so many levelers including whether the better team can execute. Adaptability is the key and what I think is lacking from the Wallabies. If the All Blacks don’t play well tonight, they’ll try to grind out another one point win like the past two tests in Sydney. The idea that the All Blacks are vulnerable when chasing is only true to the extent that every side is vulnerable when chasing; their ability to come from behind is second to none. They did it as recently as the Christchurch test against Ireland. If this scenario arises, the Wallabies will need to stop it dead in its tracks before the comeback is complete. That will be the test of this side Deans has chosen and particularly the first five Berrick Barnes.
Having said all that, there’s been way too much talking about how to win. The Wallabies are playing at home against a new All Black side that’s bound to lose sooner or later. It may not be the best Wallabies side that Deans could have chosen, but we’ll learn more about that in the wash up. For now I think Wallabies fans should expect a win.
August 18th 2012 @ 10:16am
Bigbaz said | August 18th 2012 @ 10:16am | Report comment
OJ,expectation is maybe a step too far for me.I am extremly hopefull but I worry about our locks at scrumtime and have little faith that out 10 can lead us around the park in a positive manner. No matter, I will be yelling for a win.
August 18th 2012 @ 12:19pm
bennalong said | August 18th 2012 @ 12:19pm | Report comment
Thank god!
Some sanity. Good piece OJ. You’ve pointed the finger at the wilted Australian Roarers who shame either rationality or a sporting mentality of optimism and courage, to race into print against their own team
Not much fun as an All Black supporter to find the opposition so pathetic is it?
IMO the thing we’ve got going for us is the relative newness of the AB’s and lack of Super !5 combinations.
I wonder how the Crusaders players view SBW who can’t be called a team man
The Wallabies have suffered lack of consistency in the backs due to injury but the simplicity of the logic in Deans’ selections are all about keeping the same core team that beat Wales, because in Test rugby preparation is rarely optimal and playing time together a premium
The impressive thing about the Wallaby whitewash of Wales was the fact that Wales was a team of players who were winners ………together. And yet we beat them three times when the team had barely run together.
Tonight we’ve had primo preparation and Deans chose Ant Fainga because he naturally plays a similar game to McCabe. So the team continues.
I would love it if Cooper at 5/8 had brought the team to this point but he didn’t and his strength, unpredictability, is his weakness when you’re trying to run as a team. I hope he continues to improve his glaring weakness because Deans could not persist with positional change in defence.
So our weakness in the midfield….. lack of creativity, is ameliorated by Digby’s unpredictability to opponents but histeamwork with Genia
The other X factor is Beale running off Barnes and AAC
The AB’s have depth because they have so many great players and they read off the same script, so they play the same game
I don’t think the same can be said of Oz rugby where we rely on good coaches popping up with their own strategies which create problems for teams with stronger scripts
Deans is giving from the NZ script and he’s had difficulties with our guys who didn’t get it as quickly as he expected. His strength is his character, which imposes stability on individuals and in the end will create a strong team.
I hope tonight is the next step in the growth of the Wallabies