Preview of AFL Round 22 matches (all times AEST).
FRIDAY, Aug 24
Richmond v Essendon at MCG 7.50pm
Head to Head: Tigers 84 Bombers 102 drawn 4
Last clash: Round 8 2012 – Bombers 19.14 (128) bt Tigers 15.19 (109) at MCG
Tab Sportsbet: Tigers $1.65 Bombers $2.25
Sportingbet: Tigers $1.60 Bombers $2.35
The Bombers are ripe for the picking, having lost their past five matches, their top-eight berth and much of their fight as well. They’ve also lost Dustin Fletcher, Patrick Ryder and Jake Carlisle to injury. Richmond want to end with an 11-11 record and would love to dish out some more pain to their old rivals. Essendon were appalling last Saturday, losing to Carlton by 96 points, while Richmond have won two out of three and were competitive on the weekend against Fremantle.
Key: Once again, Essendon captain Jobe Watson needs more support in the midfield. One of the Bombers’ main goals at the start of this season was to beef up their on-ball depth, but it’s clearly a long-term project.
Tip: Tigers by 5 points
SATURDAY, Aug 25
St Kilda v Greater Western Sydney at Etihad Stadium 1.45pm
Head to Head: Saints 0 Giants 0
Last clash: N/A
Tab Sportsbet: Saints $1.01 Giants $17.00
Sportingbet: Saints $1.01 Giants $21.00
Even though the Saints should easily beat the Giants, they need too much to go right if they are to make the finals from 11th place. They have seemingly acknowledged that at selection, introducing five youngsters, while the likes of Justin Koschitzke and Sam Fisher join skipper Nick Riewoldt on the sidelines. St Kilda were competitive against Geelong before falling away in the last term, while GWS will probably finish their debut season with two wins.
Key: There is a lot of focus on Saints’ utility Brendon Goddard, who is being touted as their next captain. But he is yet to sign for next season amid ongoing speculation linking him to the Giants. Regardless, Goddard could do with a big match – his form has been generally reasonable, but below his potential.
Tip: Saints by 85 points
Port Adelaide v Brisbane at AAMI Stadium 2.10pm
Head to Head: Power 11 Lions 13 drawn 2
Last clash: Round 15 2011 – Lions 15.9 (99) bt Power 13.10 (88) at Gabba
Tab Sportsbet: Power $2.15 Lions $1.70
Sportingbet: Power $2.20 Lions $1.68
Interim Power coach Gary Hocking is talking tough, saying their entire playing list is on notice after another disastrous season. But they run into a Brisbane side brimming with confidence after their upset win over Adelaide. The Lions have posted successive wins only once this season, but they have a great opportunity to end the season with confidence as their last two opponents are Port and the Western Bulldogs.
Key: Lions’ key defender Daniel Merrett was outstanding on Adelaide spearhead Kurt Tippett on the weekend and he will probably go to Port’s Jay Schulz, who kicked seven goals against the Lions in their last match.
Tip: Lions by 15 points
Sydney v Hawthorn at SCG 4.40pm
Head to Head: Swans 66 Hawks 82 drawn 2
Last clash: Round 5 2012 – Swans 16.10 (106) bt Hawks 10.9 (69) at Aurora Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Swans $2.05 Hawks $1.80
Sportingbet: Swans $2.00 Hawks $1.82
A massive game for the league’s top two teams – Sydney will secure the minor premiership with a win, while the Hawks will go a long way to ensuring a home qualifying final if they can take out this blockbuster. Hawthorn’s win over Sydney last year was only their second at the SCG in 12 matches, so there’s a significant home-ground advantage for the Swans. The Hawks have beefed up their side, regaining Lance Franklin, Sam Mitchell and Josh Gibson.
Key: After a six-week absence, star Hawthorn forward Franklin badly needs a run with the finals only two weekends away. As always, if Franklin fires, the opposition are in trouble.
Tip: Swans by 1 point
West Coast v Collingwood at Subiaco 7.40pm
Head to Head: Eagles 20 Magpies 19 drawn 1
Last clash: Round 13 2012 – Magpies 12.13 (85) bt Eagles 12.10 (82) at MCG
Tab Sportsbet: Eagles $1.80 Magpies $2.05
Sportingbet: Eagles $1.77 Magpies $2.07
The stakes are also big for fourth-placed Collingwood and the fifth-placed Eagles. Collingwood ensure themselves the double chance if they win, while West Coast are only a game behind them and have a better percentage. Eagles’ forward Josh Kennedy returns, while there are some big changes for the Magpies, including the return of Dane Swan and Ben Johnson, while Nick Maxwell and Darren Jolly are out injured.
Key: Collingwood key forwards Travis Cloke and Chris Dawes did not manage a goal in last weekend’s upset loss to North Melbourne and the Magpies badly need a lot more from them, especially with the finals so close.
Tip: Magpies by 5 points
Gold Coast v Carlton at Gold Coast Stadium 7.40pm
Head to Head: Suns 0 Blues 1
Last clash: Round 2 2011 – Blues 26.15 (171) bt Suns 7.10 (52) at Gabba
Tab Sportsbet: Suns $14.00 Blues $1.02
Sportingbet: Suns $17.00 Blues $1.01
Carlton are right back in finals contention following their demolition of Essendon and they should win this Metricon Stadium clash. But the Suns pushed Hawthorn and were within touch at three-quarter time before the Hawks managed to kick away. As Blues’ coach Brett Ratten noted, there is zero room for complacency. Suns’ captain Gary Ablett continues to rack up disposals at will.
Key: Young Suns’ key position player Steven May was a revelation in attack against Hawthorn, taking 12 marks and kicking three goals. Gold Coast need another big game from him this week if they are to challenge the Blues.
Tip: Blues by 60 points
SUNDAY, Aug 26
Geelong v Western Bulldogs at Skilled Stadium 1.10pm
Head to Head: Cats 94 Bulldogs 55 drawn 2
Last clash: Round 9 2012 – Cats 14.11 (95) bt Bulldogs 11.9 (75) at Etihad Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Cats $1.01 Bulldogs $17.00
Sportingbet: Cats $1.01 Bulldogs $17.00
The Bulldogs have lost their past nine games and their percentage over that stretch is less than 50. That doesn’t bode well for a trip to Simonds Stadium to meet the Cats, who have lost just once in their past 35 games at their home ground. Geelong continued their strong recent form with a runaway win over St Kilda last round. The Bulldogs pushed the Cats hard at Etihad Stadium in round nine. But Geelong have improved greatly since, while the young Dogs have trailed off badly.
Key: Having kicked 33.26 in his first 14 games this season, Tom Hawkins has found range with 21.7 in his past five. A big haul against the Dogs would keep him in with a chance of the Coleman Medal.
Tip: Cats by 60 points
North Melbourne v Fremantle at Etihad Stadium 3.15pm
Head to Head: North Melbourne 14 Dockers 7
Last clash: Round 22 2011 – North Melbourne 21.17 (143) bt Dockers 6.9 (45) at Etihad Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: North Melbourne $1.40 Dockers $3.00
Sportingbet: North Melbourne $1.42 Dockers $2.90
The Kangaroos are the AFL’s second-highest scoring side this year, but the Dockers’ stifling defensive approach will pose an interesting test of their fast-moving, hard-running style. North have grabbed a lot of attention in winning nine of their past 10 games, including impressive victories over Essendon and Collingwood most recently. But the Dockers have been steadily building, with six wins from their past seven games and, in those wins, have conceded an average of less than 10 goals per game.
Key: The Dockers rely heavily on skipper Matthew Pavlich in attack, while the Kangaroos have shared the load well, with Drew Petrie, Lindsay Thomas, Robbie Tarrant, Lachie Hansen and Brent Harvey all scoring threats.
Tip: North Melbourne by 8 points
Melbourne v Adelaide at MCG 4.40pm
Head to Head: Demons 11 Crows 19
Last clash: Round 7 2011 – Demons 22.17 (149) bt Crows 8.5 (53) at MCG
Tab Sportsbet: Demons $6.75 Crows $1.11
Sportingbet: Demons $6.75 Crows $1.11
The Crows will be stung by their upset loss to Brisbane last round, when they gave up a six-goal lead, a result which could end up costing them a top-two spot and a home final. That should have them fired up and key forward Kurt Tippett should be better for the run after looking a bit scratchy in his comeback game. Melbourne are nearing the end of a dismal season, but should be buoyed by two recent wins, even if they were only over Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney. The fact that this is the Demons’ last game in Melbourne and former skipper Brad Green’s farewell should also give them an emotional boost.
Key: Adelaide’s only previous game at the MCG this season was a 56-point hiding from Hawthorn, so they will be keen to build some confidence there ahead of a possible finals return.
Tip: Crows by 40 points
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