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Hayley Byrnes recently wrote a stunningly heart-wrenching article here on The Roar which highlighted the terrible dangers of addictive gambling. I’d like to discuss potentially ‘smart’ sports punting.
Are there smart investors out there who punt, rather than invest on the stockmarket/property?
I have a certain fascination with betting. I’m a very keen horse racing punter and know most sports well enough to know who should win on any one day. There is definitely money to be made. There’s definitely money to be lost.
My own experience tells me that there’s not very many good bets that can be made without serious dedication and study.
I’m sure there are great bets each week, but knowing what they are without being seriously dedicated is difficult.
I believe there are really only a small number of terrific bets possible in a month.
This is because getting ahead often requires knowledge that comes from being in the game for a long time, or seeing something that few others can see.
Thinking the Swans are a good thing this week is hardly ever one of those great bets. Emotion combined with correlating ‘facts’ without causation are often problems.
Here’s an example of a very good bet.
Commanding Jewel paid $2 on the NSW TAB at R1 at Mooney Valley over the weekend.
To know she was a good bet with great odds would be to know she is Atlantic Jewel’s three-quarter sister.
You’d need to know her sire Commands produces good wet track horses and the soft track would be somewhat advantageous.
You’d need to know that she won easily at Swan Hill in a maiden over 900m and was definitely looking for a longer distance.
You’d also preferred to have known, should you be betting, that the second-place getter behind her at Swan Hill won a nice maiden at Mildura, further franking the form.
Of course, you can always look silly when it goes wrong – but that is how I’d define a great bet (with the benefit of hindsight).
There’s really a few games being played by gamblers – be they profilic, idiotic or more considered – the long game, the short game and the dumb game.
The long game involves playing odds which mathematically make sense. If you get 100 opportunities, and the odds stack in your favour (eg 100/1 odds or better), you will eventually win. You just need to be able to have the bankroll to survive 99 losses. Or more.
It’s like playing smart poker – you play the 55% hand 100% of the time. You won’t always win, but the theory says you’ll be ahead if you play enough hands. It’s a grind.
The short game involves taking what’s available. Take Frankel for example.
At $1.20 to win last start, it was one of the best bets in 2012. He wasn’t going to be beaten, if you knew enough, or knew someone who had studied. But how many people closely follow European gallops in Australia? I know two. One is a writer here on The Roar, Justin Cinque.
The dumb game involves betting on the colourful options including line betting, multi-bets and betting on what appears to be a good thing in questionable circumstances, as well as plonking down money on colours, numbers, or good names. Most of these devices are designed to tempt you without being good investments.
(There’s nothing wrong with putting $5 on a nice looking horse when at the track having a drink, or your favourite team before heading to the game. The sense of thrill is a nice buzz. That’s sort of dumb, but that’s not deep involvement)
It’s betting too much. It’s betting for the sake of a thrill. It’s betting to make an obscure MLB game more interesting. It’s betting on Netball without knowing your BoP-Magic from your NSW Swifts.
Line betting is something I classify as too risky without considerable study. Serious punters often use it to their advantage. Good luck to them.
Multi-bets offer gambling agencies huge advantages. There’s really no sense in putting on a multi-bet unless you’re offered a big percentage boost or a moneyback offer, etc. Still, putting $1 on a multi paying $1000 if AC Milan win by 2+, tied in with Federer winning the US Open plus an NFL team making the finals can be fun – but it’s fun only, not smart betting.
Over to you, Roarers. There are stories of addiction and heartbreak, but what about players who win? And not the story of picking the winner of the Melbourne Cup in a sweep – but the serious punters?
What’s your best bet? For great odds on all your favourite sports check out PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.