AFL ladder: Collingwood ‘lucky’ to have double-chance says study

 
The Roar Roar Guru

By , 3 Sep 2012

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    Following the AFL home-and-away season, a new study says the final ladder could be improved to ‘truly’ reflect the ranking of the overall performance of the 18 teams.

    A study by a La Trobe University sports economist uses complex econometric modelling and regression techniques to estimate an ‘optimal’ bonus points system – determined from data on all AFL matches from the 1997-2008 seasons – similar to those used in Super Rugby.

    It is claimed that this system is better at revealing strong teams in the AFL than the current system, which does not award bonus points.

    The research – by Dr Liam Lenten from La Trobe’s School of Economics, and co-author Dr Niven Winchester at the esteemed Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the US – builds on Dr Winchester’s previous analysis on the Super Rugby system.

    The authors’ results indicate a preferred allocation of four league points for a win, three points for a draw, two points for winning by 27 or more and two points for losing by 26 or less.

    However, they state that the partition could instead be altered to 24 points (i.e. four goals) to make it more interpretable to fans, and that a goal bonus (similar to a try bonus in Rugby) for scoring (for example) 20 goals, could also be included.

    The 2012 ladder under a bonus point system in reported below. Dr Lenten points out that Collingwood would have finished 7th instead of 4th in 2012, giving them an elimination final against North Melbourne, and handing Geelong the double-chance and a qualifying final against Hawthorn this coming weekend.

    Dr Lenten says the inclusion of bonuses may also maintain spectator interest in matches where an obvious winner emerges prior to match completion.

    It could also prevent dominant teams taking their foot off the pedal after establishing a significant lead.

    For these reasons, Dr Lenten claims that the AFL Commission should consider amending the current allocation of league points.

    The authors of the study acknowledge that introducing bonuses to AFL standings may cause controversy as a team with less wins could (as in Super Rugby) conceivably qualify for the finals at the expense of a team with more wins, creating fan resistance to the idea.

    However, they point out that many other sports already use popular ‘bonus point’ systems (if not by name), such as those in Super Rugby, as mentioned, as well as ice hockey and others

    Also, according to Dr Winchester, parallels can be drawn to the Duckworth-Lewis revised-target rule used in cricket, “…which was met initially with much scepticism but is now widely accepted”.

    Alternative 2012 AFL Ladder under Inclusion of Bonus Points

    Actual With BP Team

    Win

    Draw

    MarginBonuses

    %

    Comp Pnts

    1

    1

    		 Hawthorn

    17

    0

    17

    154.6

    102

    2

    2

    		 Adelaide

    17

    0

    13

    132.5

    94

    3

    3

    		 Sydney

    16

    0

    14

    140.6

    92

    6

    4

    		 Geelong

    15

    0

    14

    117.1

    88

    5

    5

    		 West Coast

    15

    0

    12

    124.2

    84

    8

    6

    		 North Melbourne

    14

    0

    14

    112.5

    84

    4

    7

    		 Collingwood

    16

    0

    9

    116.5

    82

    7

    8

    		 Fremantle

    14

    0

    12

    115.7

    80

    12

    9

    		 Richmond

    10

    1

    17

    111.6

    77

    9

    10

    		 St.Kilda

    12

    0

    12

    123.3

    72

    10

    11

    		 Carlton

    11

    0

    13

    108.0

    70

    11

    12

    		 Essendon

    11

    0

    11

    100.1

    66

    13

    13

    		 Brisbane

    10

    0

    8

    91.0

    56

    14

    14

    		 Port Adelaide

    5

    1

    8

    78.9

    39

    15

    15

    		 Western Bulldogs

    5

    0

    7

    67.0

    34

    16

    16

    		 Melbourne

    4

    0

    6

    67.5

    28

    17

    17

    		 Gold Coast

    3

    0

    6

    60.8

    24

    18

    18

    		 GWS

    2

    0

    4

    46.2

    16